A good friend of mine lives in Asheville. He's got a very young baby and 2 toddlers. Texted him at 8am this morning to check in and let him know I was thinking of him... haven't heard back yet. Definitely concerning, hopefully just no power and comms
OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM
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Hoping we hear from @coloradoknight soon….as per earlier in this thread, he’s in Asheville too.
This video from Horseshoe Beach is heartbreaking and that location was still close to 40 miles SE of landfall. I think people have no idea what might have happened if a strengthening Cat 4 had hit Tampa or Pensacola instead of the sparsely populated Big Bend area. I'm sure the small towns in the Big Bend at or near the coast (very few actual towns there, to be fair) were similarly destroyed.
And this tweet shows catastrophic damage in W NC, which unfortunately, is all too common in large areas of GA/SC/NC/TN/VA/KY, especially near the Apps.
And this thread contains those two tweets and many others showing damage throughout the SE US from Helene.
https://x.com/search?q=helene damage&src=typed_query
One more: drone footage of the devastation at Keaton Beach, which was about 10 miles SE of landfall, which was probably an even worse location for damage than landfall, as that was the eastern edge of the eyewall, the strongest part of the storm.
Ok one more. Seriously scary video of a small mudslide shooting through this guy's yard, destroying a car and probably some other things downstream.
And this tweet shows catastrophic damage in W NC, which unfortunately, is all too common in large areas of GA/SC/NC/TN/VA/KY, especially near the Apps.
And this thread contains those two tweets and many others showing damage throughout the SE US from Helene.
https://x.com/search?q=helene damage&src=typed_query
One more: drone footage of the devastation at Keaton Beach, which was about 10 miles SE of landfall, which was probably an even worse location for damage than landfall, as that was the eastern edge of the eyewall, the strongest part of the storm.
Ok one more. Seriously scary video of a small mudslide shooting through this guy's yard, destroying a car and probably some other things downstream.
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TWC reported a possible storm forming in the gulf later this week?
I sincerely hope this doesn’t occur.
Everyone has been thru too much with Helene.
I sincerely hope this doesn’t occur.
Everyone has been thru too much with Helene.
All 3 major medium range global models show formation of a TS in several days to a week in the NW Caribbean then moving into the Gulf and making landfall as a probable hurricane somewhere on the FL Gulf coast in 8-10 days, but we barely even have a tropical wave in the Caribbean right now, so formation is still questionable (NHC has it as a 50% chance of being a named storm in the next 7 days, as per the graphic below) and even if one forms, predicting where it goes and how strong it gets is extremely difficult right now, so let's just see what happens. Obviously, another hurricane hitting the FL coast and possibly bringing inland wind and rain north into the SE US would be a worst case scenario, but that's far from even probable (but it is possible).
FYI, in addition, we now have Hurricane Isaac in the North Central Atlantic (~100 mph, peaked at 105 mph earlier today), but it's forecast to become extratropical and dissipate as it moves north towards Greenland/Iceland. And TS Joyce did form yesterday and is meandering ENE north of the Azores, posing no threats to anyone other than shipping interests and the fishes. Plus, we have another potential TS forming in the next several days not far from Joyce - and also likely to be a fish storm if it forms.
So we're now up to 10 named storms vs. the seasonal avg of 14.4 and 6 hurricanes vs. the seasonal avg of 7.2, so getting to a normal season seems likely, but it's extremely unlikely we'll get anywhere near the CSU or NOAA predictions before the season.
Thanks ! Hopefully this storm in the Gulf doesn’t materialize !All 3 major medium range global models show formation of a TS in several days to a week in the NW Caribbean then moving into the Gulf and making landfall as a probable hurricane somewhere on the FL Gulf coast in 8-10 days, but we barely even have a tropical wave in the Caribbean right now, so formation is still questionable (NHC has it as a 50% chance of being a named storm in the next 7 days, as per the graphic below) and even if one forms, predicting where it goes and how strong it gets is extremely difficult right now, so let's just see what happens. Obviously, another hurricane hitting the FL coast and possibly bringing inland wind and rain north into the SE US would be a worst case scenario, but that's far from even probable (but it is possible).
FYI, in addition, we now have Hurricane Isaac in the North Central Atlantic (~100 mph, peaked at 105 mph earlier today), but it's forecast to become extratropical and dissipate as it moves north towards Greenland/Iceland. And TS Joyce did form yesterday and is meandering ENE north of the Azores, posing no threats to anyone other than shipping interests and the fishes. Plus, we have another potential TS forming in the next several days not far from Joyce - and also likely to be a fish storm if it forms.
So we're now up to 10 named storms vs. the seasonal avg of 14.4 and 6 hurricanes vs. the seasonal avg of 7.2, so getting to a normal season seems likely, but it's extremely unlikely we'll get anywhere near the CSU or NOAA predictions before the season.
Just checking in to let everyone know we are safe. Things are bad in Asheville. There is no power, water or cell service. All major highways were closed because of damage. I found a way out of town yesterday and made it to Charlotte. It took me 5 hours instead of two.
I cannot describe the damage I saw because I still can't comprehend it. It reminds me of Katrina and Sandy. Buildings are completely covered in water. There are some towns that look to be completely washed away.
I cannot describe the damage I saw because I still can't comprehend it. It reminds me of Katrina and Sandy. Buildings are completely covered in water. There are some towns that look to be completely washed away.
Great to hear you're safe. The footage from Asheville (my cousin lives there) and the whole region is just shocking in the breadth and extent of damage. Helene's damage costs for the SE US have been estimated to be in the $110 billion range with so much damage to structures, roads, bridges, communications, power lines, etc.
Glad to hear you’re all safe. I read about the damage this am and it sounds terrible. Best to you all.
Now 102 dead from Helene's impacts and climbing, sadly, with over 1000 unaccounted for just in NC, although much of that should be simply the lack of modern communication ability, coupled with the inability for many to get to areas that have communications, due to the ravaged infrastructure (countless roads destroyed and even if not destroyed, many are impassable due to downed trees); in addition, power is out for most, and there is even a lack of water for many. Recovery, unfortunately, is always a slow process and rebuilding is even slower. Tragic situation in so many ways.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/30/weather/hurricane-helene-recovery-cleanup-monday/index.html
Edit: this graphic does a great job of showing how much rain fell in much of the SE US (and especially near/in the Apps) and how that compares to the ARIs (annual recurrence interval, basically how often a rainfall event like this is expected) for this region and one can see how for much of W NC and NW SC (and even small sections of NE GA/E TN and SW VA) this was an every 200 to 1000 year rainfall event. No surprise, then, the level of flooding observed. And for parts of the rest of the SE US, this was a once in 25 to 100 year rainfall event.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/30/weather/hurricane-helene-recovery-cleanup-monday/index.html
Edit: this graphic does a great job of showing how much rain fell in much of the SE US (and especially near/in the Apps) and how that compares to the ARIs (annual recurrence interval, basically how often a rainfall event like this is expected) for this region and one can see how for much of W NC and NW SC (and even small sections of NE GA/E TN and SW VA) this was an every 200 to 1000 year rainfall event. No surprise, then, the level of flooding observed. And for parts of the rest of the SE US, this was a once in 25 to 100 year rainfall event.
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Been checking in on people I know in NC and SC. Folks in SC lost power and had some trees down with major winds, but that's about it. Still waiting to hear back from friends in NC. Also checking in on some friends from Kentucky who I haven't heard back from.
All 3 major medium range global models show formation of a TS in several days to a week in the NW Caribbean then moving into the Gulf and making landfall as a probable hurricane somewhere on the FL Gulf coast in 8-10 days, but we barely even have a tropical wave in the Caribbean right now, so formation is still questionable (NHC has it as a 50% chance of being a named storm in the next 7 days, as per the graphic below) and even if one forms, predicting where it goes and how strong it gets is extremely difficult right now, so let's just see what happens. Obviously, another hurricane hitting the FL coast and possibly bringing inland wind and rain north into the SE US would be a worst case scenario, but that's far from even probable (but it is possible).
FYI, in addition, we now have Hurricane Isaac in the North Central Atlantic (~100 mph, peaked at 105 mph earlier today), but it's forecast to become extratropical and dissipate as it moves north towards Greenland/Iceland. And TS Joyce did form yesterday and is meandering ENE north of the Azores, posing no threats to anyone other than shipping interests and the fishes. Plus, we have another potential TS forming in the next several days not far from Joyce - and also likely to be a fish storm if it forms.
So we're now up to 10 named storms vs. the seasonal avg of 14.4 and 6 hurricanes vs. the seasonal avg of 7.2, so getting to a normal season seems likely, but it's extremely unlikely we'll get anywhere near the CSU or NOAA predictions before the season.
Lots of activity in the Atlantic Basin, but the somewhat good news is that the models aren't as bullish on the disturbance in the W Caribbean developing into a significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which looked more likely a few days ago. It's certainly still possible and the northern GOM/FL Gulf coast is still at risk of something forming in the next week or so, but we're not really seeing that on the models right now. Let's hope that continues.
Elsewhere, Isaac has transitioned to a post-tropical storm with 60 mph winds and is headed towards Ireland over the next several days, while Joyce is dissipating and is now just a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic. On the other hand we now have TS Kirk in the central Atlantic and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane in 2-3 days, reaching ~125 mph, but fortunately Kirk is expected to recurve NE, although it could end up hammering NW Europe (UK or France) in about 10 days as a Cat 2/3 level post-tropical storm (this happens occasionally). And finally, we're very likely to have TS Leslie in a few days, right behind Kirk in the eastern Atlantic; Leslie will likely become a hurricane and take a similar track NW then N then NE perhaps towards Spain eventually.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
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If they are in WNC communications are still spotty at best. Most people have to drive somewhere to try and get a text out. And, since there is no power, there is no gas. They finally got one the highways open all the way so supplies and help is arriving. Rumor has it we may not have water for a month.
My former roommate at grad school in Chapel Hill lives in Brevard. I haven’t been able to contact him.
Yep, just heard from my cousin that she and her family in Asheville are ok (we had all obviously been worried) - took them until now to get to a town that had some power and a working cell tower. Crazy situation.
NC's High Country is in bad shape. So many scattered residences are isolated on the immediate outskirts of Boone in Watauga County, beyond the university and surrounding resort towns. Many individuals still unaccounted for. Natl Guard and FEMA and regional Red Cross and other volunteer orgs are doing invaluable work. I've been spending days since the storm helping local residents up on our mountain get things done, here and there. Lots to do. No power. Haven't seen any signs of restoration crews yet. A few choppers flew over yesterday supposedly surveying/scouring the utility damage. We normally have two road outlets to town. One is a rugged gravel mountain road that is pretty much a disaster zone. The other is a winding paved road that has two very sketchy washouts but it is the primary access to a number of critical comms towers, so restoring that road should be a priority. I hope. Until then we descend/ascend with extreme caution via the 4x4 to assist locals up top here. Today we plan to head down for a hot shower (the first in days), a hot meal, some supplies, etc. My wife may stay there for a bit to volunteer, as many are needed. Anyway... that's a quick update. Cell and Internet/data comes and goes.....
@RU848789 and @rubaseball78 were you aware of this?
US govt hiding top hurricane forecast model sparks outrage after deadly Helene
US govt hiding top hurricane forecast model sparks outrage after deadly Helene
I did not know that. We don't track one model we look at a large number of models in aggregate. One thing the article never touched on was what would have been done differently for Helene if this model's data was released? I'm guessing, probably nothing. I'm all for getting the most accurate info but a forecast is a prediction of the future.
Yup, I noticed that. And I agree, I don't know how preparations would have been any different from what actually occurred.
My former roommate contacted me today. He said nothing but peanut butter sandwiches and real books for three days, but the power is back in and they’re ok. Brevard is in Transylvania Couty, which wasn’t hit hard unlike Buncombe, County where Asheville is located.
Suppposed to go out to Brevard the last week of October for some golf and hiking, but not sure if we can get there even though it’s not in terrible shape. Doesn’t even register as a blip considering what Ashville, Boone, Chimney Rock, and other areas are dealing with. Sending money and prayers.
The worst for us on the mountain top above the town of Boone is not having power restored since the storm. We're making do. But it is getting old. The road we take down into town has a few washouts, so the descent/ascent can be sketchy. We have one backroad bypass that's not as bad.
Still, we're fortunate. The towns and enclaves surrounding us have been obliterated. Going to take years to recover. It is significant.
Anyway, we spent the last two days in town, getting down around 10 am and then coming back up around 4 pm. Appalachian State has opened facilities to locals, so we can shower, relax, have a hot meal. We really have no clear understanding of exactly when our power will return. I "think" we can last another week. Not so sure beyond that.
As it happens, for a timely escape, I'm scheduled to fly up to NJ on Oct 10 for my annual get together with my old Rutgers buds. We've rented a home in MA and are going to hike the 90 miles of Appalachian Trail in that state over a week, then hit the homecoming football game vs UCLA. I return to NC on Oct 20. While I'm away my wife will split time with our niece in Raleigh and her sister on the coast. So... hoping that by Oct 20, when we return, life will be back to semi-normal....
Still, we're fortunate. The towns and enclaves surrounding us have been obliterated. Going to take years to recover. It is significant.
Anyway, we spent the last two days in town, getting down around 10 am and then coming back up around 4 pm. Appalachian State has opened facilities to locals, so we can shower, relax, have a hot meal. We really have no clear understanding of exactly when our power will return. I "think" we can last another week. Not so sure beyond that.
As it happens, for a timely escape, I'm scheduled to fly up to NJ on Oct 10 for my annual get together with my old Rutgers buds. We've rented a home in MA and are going to hike the 90 miles of Appalachian Trail in that state over a week, then hit the homecoming football game vs UCLA. I return to NC on Oct 20. While I'm away my wife will split time with our niece in Raleigh and her sister on the coast. So... hoping that by Oct 20, when we return, life will be back to semi-normal....
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Much ado about nothing, IMO. While there may be restrictions on sharing the HCCA model data, the NHC still uses the data in developing its hurricane forecasts (they consider many models) and for the vast majority of people, the NHC track and intensity forecasts are all they need (very few people are looking at individual models). And while the new HCCA was very good in 2022, it was good, but not best in 2023, which happens a lot (one model isn't best every year); the NHC official forecast isn't always the "best" but it is always near the top and sometimes is best (note that there is "best" for track and intensity for different time points and the best model is never best for all of these things). Having said all that, I don't like the model output, which we're funding, not being readily available.
Also, with regard to Helene, the NHC track and intensity forecasts were simply superb as anyone following this thread should know. The track forecast towards FL's Big Bend area never deviated from 2 days before we even had a TS, until landfall and the intensity forecast showed a major hurricane at landfall for several days. So, there was absolutely not any lack of useful info for planning and response throughout Helene's lifespan.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/which-hurricane-models-should-you-trust-in-2023/
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/which-hurricane-models-should-you-trust-in-2024/
Hang in there.... the whole country is thinking about you guys in WNC.
The only minor positive that comes from things like this is the way neighbors help neighbors and the real sense of community pulling together. I remember it from Sandy, and as much as that sucked, you come away from it with a calm feeling
I am still without any services at home. They are saying we might get power tomorrow. However, water is another story. That could take a month. I think I am making the pilgrimage to NJ and will be able to make it to either the Wisconsin or UCLA game. Stay safe!
Why not both? 🤣
Let us know if you're gonna make it up, you can join one of our tailgates.
Lots of activity in the Atlantic Basin, but the somewhat good news is that the models aren't as bullish on the disturbance in the W Caribbean developing into a significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which looked more likely a few days ago. It's certainly still possible and the northern GOM/FL Gulf coast is still at risk of something forming in the next week or so, but we're not really seeing that on the models right now. Let's hope that continues.
Elsewhere, Isaac has transitioned to a post-tropical storm with 60 mph winds and is headed towards Ireland over the next several days, while Joyce is dissipating and is now just a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic. On the other hand we now have TS Kirk in the central Atlantic and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane in 2-3 days, reaching ~125 mph, but fortunately Kirk is expected to recurve NE, although it could end up hammering NW Europe (UK or France) in about 10 days as a Cat 2/3 level post-tropical storm (this happens occasionally). And finally, we're very likely to have TS Leslie in a few days, right behind Kirk in the eastern Atlantic; Leslie will likely become a hurricane and take a similar track NW then N then NE perhaps towards Spain eventually.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
Still just a moderate chance of getting a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but in some ways, it doesn't really matter, as most models are now showing either a named storm bringing very heavy rains to Florida or an unnamed storm bringing very heavy rains to Florida. As per the graphic below, forecasts are for 4-8"+ for much of the FL peninsula mostly starting about Sunday with any tropical system likely forming by mid next week. Fortunately, no models are showing any major rainfall north of about the FL Panhandle, but flooding rains and possibly a tropical system for Florida's Gulf coast would still be a major problem.
In the rest of the Atlantic Basin, both Isaac and Joyce are out of the picture, but we now have Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic becoming a monster Cat 4 storm with 145 mph winds, but fortunately, this storm is only a concern for the fishes (and shipping), although it could be a powerful extratropical storm with 70+ mph winds when it likely hits France in about 6 days. And right on the heels of Kirk, we have TS Leslie, which will take a similar track and is also forecast to become a major hurricane. Also, the medium range forecast is for a high level of activity through at least mid-October.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
We now have a new TD, which will soon be hurricane Milton and it's aimed at the FL Gulf coast with ~110 mph winds expected. That was a quick spin up. Yikes.
Just saw this. My father lives in Tarpon Springs. Hoping this one heads in a different direction.We now have a new TD, which will soon be hurricane Milton and it's aimed at the FL Gulf coast with ~110 mph winds expected. That was a quick spin up. Yikes.
We now have Tropical Storm Milton, forecast to be a ~110 mph hurricane in a few days with landfall aimed at the central FL coast (near Tampa) in 4 days (early Weds). Not good news, but it needs to be shared.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
Not a great defensive series there. Damn, down 7-0. Really needed to score on that previous possession.
Milton now forecast to be a major hurricane, with ~115 mph winds at landfall, which is currently forecast to be in the Tampa area in 4 days, although the cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island. After that hopefully the storm will exit off the east coast of FL and head out to sea as most models show. People on the central FL Gulf coast should be seriously considering evacuating or at least have a plan to evacuate once the track is nailed down better.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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