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OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

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"If the predictions come to pass, the storm would be the largest test of New Jersey's post-Sandy recovery, and could rival record marks in parts of the state.

Winds of more than 60 miles per hour are expected to produce waves of 15 to 20 feet just offshore Saturday and drive a wall of water into the coast. Tides are already running at astronomical highs due to a full moon on Saturday.

In Atlantic and Cape May County, storm tides could rival all time records, forecast data show.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...sey_shore_this_weekend.html#incart_river_home

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...sey_shore_this_weekend.html#incart_river_home
 
The americanwx board linked in this thread discuss the runs as they come out. That's how I follow when I do.
 
so when is this storm supposed to start around central jersey? tomorrow night late correct?
 
"If the predictions come to pass, the storm would be the largest test of New Jersey's post-Sandy recovery, and could rival record marks in parts of the state.

Winds of more than 60 miles per hour are expected to produce waves of 15 to 20 feet just offshore Saturday and drive a wall of water into the coast. Tides are already running at astronomical highs due to a full moon on Saturday.

In Atlantic and Cape May County, storm tides could rival all time records, forecast data show.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...sey_shore_this_weekend.html#incart_river_home

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...sey_shore_this_weekend.html#incart_river_home

"Conditions in Raritan Bay and Monmouth County are only expected to experience minor flooding due to the orientation of the storm. During Sandy, winds swirling around the storm drove into the northern New Jersey coast at a near right angle, allowing water to build up more readily."

Please please please please please
 
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"Conditions in Raritan Bay and Monmouth County are only expected to experience minor flooding due to the orientation of the storm. During Sandy, winds swirling around the storm drove into the northern New Jersey coast at a near right angle, allowing water to build up more readily."

Please please please please please

Ditto!
 
"If the predictions come to pass, the storm would be the largest test of New Jersey's post-Sandy recovery, and could rival record marks in parts of the state.

Winds of more than 60 miles per hour are expected to produce waves of 15 to 20 feet just offshore Saturday and drive a wall of water into the coast. Tides are already running at astronomical highs due to a full moon on Saturday.

In Atlantic and Cape May County, storm tides could rival all time records, forecast data show.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...sey_shore_this_weekend.html#incart_river_home

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...sey_shore_this_weekend.html#incart_river_home
GOVERNOR CHRISTIE YELLS DOWN FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE: "We're stronger than the storm!"
 
So here's an interesting re-cap.

The Euro backed off this storm a couple days ago, as did the GFS. The NAM has been consistently showing a major storm. The weenies on AMWx have dismissed the NAM, all along, because "it sucks". As of last night, the SREF (short term model) also supports a major storm. The weenies on AMWx declared it out of its range (fair enough, at the time). The RGEM and the JMA also have supported a major storm.

They suck, too, apparently.

This morning the GFS has started to come back around to the idea of a monster storm, just not to the extent that the NAM, RGEM, JMA and now the SREF consistently show. Only the Euro exists, at this time, as the sole holdout.

So it's an interesting battle, over there. King Euro, the "Hero of Sandy", stands alone at this moment - or at least, until 1AM.

Should be interesting.
 
So here's an interesting re-cap.

The Euro backed off this storm a couple days ago, as did the GFS. The NAM has been consistently showing a major storm. The weenies on AMWx have dismissed the NAM, all along, because "it sucks". As of last night, the SREF (short term model) also supports a major storm. The weenies on AMWx declared it out of its range (fair enough, at the time). The RGEM and the JMA also have supported a major storm.

They suck, too, apparently.

This morning the GFS has started to come back around to the idea of a monster storm, just not to the extent that the NAM, RGEM, JMA and now the SREF consistently show. Only the Euro exists, at this time, as the sole holdout.

So it's an interesting battle, over there. King Euro, the "Hero of Sandy", stands alone at this moment - or at least, until 1AM.

Should be interesting.
You left out the UKMET and NOGAPS. Can we infer that's because they suck more than the NAM (both 12k and 4k)?
 
You left out the UKMET and NOGAPS. Can we infer that's because they suck more than the NAM (both 12k and 4k)?

I haven't seen any NOGAPS data, but you're right - the Ukie has been on board with this thing from the beginning as well.

So yeah, apparently they suck.

The humor is getting pretty solid over on that board. Apparently now their members who do their "radio show" (podcast?) are saying that the 18Z GFS should be thrown out, ostensibly because it moved toward the NAM.

If it turns out that the NAM is right and totally nails this thing, I'm going to spend a solid 24 hours penning the most eloquent post to ever get anyone banned from a message board.
 
The NAM run that is currently running is all out blizzard for NJ. Storm travels up the coast.

I'm an amateur but have been observing quite a bit the last few years and within 48 hours the NAM can't be dismissed. It generally does overdue QPF, but the track can't be dismissed at this point.

EURO is king but can be wrong...
 
I haven't seen any NOGAPS data, but you're right - the Ukie has been on board with this thing from the beginning as well.

So yeah, apparently they suck.

The humor is getting pretty solid over on that board. Apparently now their members who do their "radio show" (podcast?) are saying that the 18Z GFS should be thrown out, ostensibly because it moved toward the NAM.

If it turns out that the NAM is right and totally nails this thing, I'm going to spend a solid 24 hours penning the most eloquent post to ever get anyone banned from a message board.

So in short.

Almost all the models suggest a major blizzard or in that class except the Euro, which still shows a decent snow storm but not in the epic ranges the other models are spitting out?
 
When is the next euro run?
Here's a cut/paste from a thread on American on this. These are the times when the various models start spitting out their output. As far as I know, they all ingest the exact same data from the same starting point, i.e., 0Z (7 pm), 6Z (1 am), 12Z (7 am) and 18Z (1 pm).

time model starts to publish output (EST)

GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM)
NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM)
SREF: 8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM)
RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM)
GGEM (CMC): 11:00 (AM/PM
UKMET: 10:40 (AM/PM)
ECMWF (Euro/ECM): 12:45 (AM/PM)
 
So in short.

Almost all the models suggest a major blizzard or in that class except the Euro, which still shows a decent snow storm but not in the epic ranges the other models are spitting out?

Actually, the Euro shows a shitty snowstorm. Decent snows for southern and central NJ, about 6-8", but with a sharp cutoff and pretty much nothing for north of NYC. The rest of the models have been suggesting higher snow totals and every consistent run of a more enthusiastic model gets shouted down as being useless, bad, awful, etc.

I don't really want 2' of snow, but it would be funny to see the NAM be so consistently right about this storm just so all those know-it-alls could be so epically wrong.
 
Do we have a good handle on the timing of this yet? Haven't seen as much on timing, more on accumulation etc.
 
So here's an interesting re-cap.

The Euro backed off this storm a couple days ago, as did the GFS. The NAM has been consistently showing a major storm. The weenies on AMWx have dismissed the NAM, all along, because "it sucks". As of last night, the SREF (short term model) also supports a major storm. The weenies on AMWx declared it out of its range (fair enough, at the time). The RGEM and the JMA also have supported a major storm.

They suck, too, apparently.

This morning the GFS has started to come back around to the idea of a monster storm, just not to the extent that the NAM, RGEM, JMA and now the SREF consistently show. Only the Euro exists, at this time, as the sole holdout.

So it's an interesting battle, over there. King Euro, the "Hero of Sandy", stands alone at this moment - or at least, until 1AM.

Should be interesting.

Great minds, lol (even if you don't want to admit it)...a few hours ago I asked essentially the same thing on American: "Here's an interesting hypothetical. Let's say all of the models show 10-20" for NYC, except the Euro, which shows 4-6". What do you do, if you're a forecaster? Are we that far from that now, with the 18Z GFS going snowier (and I think all the rest of the models are showing 8-12" or more for NYC, no?)?

Unfortunately, thread's moving way too fast and didn't get an answer. Might be time to start a separate thread over there, which I've done a few times with better success, as people actually have time to think about it. Let's see what 0Z says...
 
Where can you see the latest model runs as they come out?

I'm busy and lazy, so I let the weenies on American do the work for me - just read through the chaff for the model output - easy to spot from the graphics, usually. In a big storm, every model run gets shared and dissected to the nth degree. If you want to do it yourself, go to down on the PSU e-wall site:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
 
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Shouldn't the weenies there love the NAM with the copious amounts of snow it has bringing everywhere?
 
Do we have a good handle on the timing of this yet? Haven't seen as much on timing, more on accumulation etc.
Give or take a few hours, light precip starts around 11 pm in Philly and 5 am in NYC (maybe 3 am in NB), but will take a few hours to get going in earnest. I wouldn't want to be on the roads past about noon Saturday.
 
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Give or take a few hours, light precip starts around 11 pm in Philly and 5 am in NYC (maybe 3 am in NB), but will take a few hours to get going in earnest. I wouldn't want to be on the roads past about noon tomorrow.
#S. What is your honest viewpoint of what we are going to get. Not what you want?
 
Give or take a few hours, light precip starts around 11 pm in Philly and 5 am in NYC (maybe 3 am in NB), but will take a few hours to get going in earnest. I wouldn't want to be on the roads past about noon tomorrow.
Don't you mean noon Saturday?
 
#S. What is your honest viewpoint of what we are going to get. Not what you want?

I'll preface this with my usual disclaimer: I'm not a pro and I don't do original "forecasts" from first principles knowledge of meteorology. What I do is read a lot, gather info, then apply a bit of knowledge (chem eng'g and meteorology share the same fundamental underlying sciences - it's just the application which is somewhat different) and experience and take an educated guess at what I think is most likely - and it's usually pretty close to what the NWS says, since I think they're the best at predicting the local weather around here, although there are a few other sources I value highly, also.

Having said that, I put out my initial bulleted list around 7 pm last night and I updated it around 7 pm tonight in my daily weather email, but was too busy to post it here, so here it is, below. Honestly, though, bullet #5 really sums it up, i.e., for Rahway, for example, could still be anywhere from 4-18" (and maybe even wider, lol), even though I'm saying 11" for RY (center of 4-18"), since there's still huge uncertainty in the forecast. That's why this is so fun and frustrating.
  • About 10-16” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~10” amounts near 78
  • About 6-10” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~6” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
  • About 3-6” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~3” amounts near 84)
  • Snowfall rapidly dropping off to an inch or so within 10-20 miles north of 84.
  • Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south (NNW or SSE, really, but it's easier to use N/S oriented "areas"), so still lots of uncertainty, i.e., for Rahway, for example, we still could see anywhere from 4" to 18", depending on the track and storm evolution - hope to narrow that down soon...
  • Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
  • There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
  • There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are
  • In case anyone is curious, snowfall amounts are supposed to be 20-30" for DC/Balt and much of VA/MD/DE and 14-24" for most of SE PA and South Jersey, including Philly (except much less near the SE NJ coast, i.e,. Cape May/Atlantic Counties, due to rain/sleet mixing in). Could also be a crippling ice storm for parts of NC/SC/GA.
 
Give or take a few hours, light precip starts around 11 pm in Philly and 5 am in NYC (maybe 3 am in NB), but will take a few hours to get going in earnest. I wouldn't want to be on the roads past about noon Saturday.

Ending about when? Thanks for everything as always Erik.
 
I'll preface this with my usual disclaimer: I'm not a pro and I don't do original "forecasts" from first principles knowledge of meteorology. What I do is read a lot, gather info, then apply a bit of knowledge (chem eng'g and meteorology share the same fundamental underlying sciences - it's just the application which is somewhat different) and experience and take an educated guess at what I think is most likely - and it's usually pretty close to what the NWS says, since I think they're the best at predicting the local weather around here, although there are a few other sources I value highly, also.

Having said that, I put out my initial bulleted list around 7 pm last night and I updated it around 7 pm tonight in my daily weather email, but was too busy to post it here, so here it is, below. Honestly, though, bullet #5 really sums it up, i.e., for Rahway, for example, could still be anywhere from 4-18" (and maybe even wider, lol), even though I'm saying 11" for RY (center of 4-18"), since there's still huge uncertainty in the forecast. That's why this is so fun and frustrating.
  • About 10-16” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~10” amounts near 78
  • About 6-10” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~6” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
  • About 3-6” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~3” amounts near 84)
  • Snowfall rapidly dropping off to an inch or so within 10-20 miles north of 84.
  • Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south (NNW or SSE, really, but it's easier to use N/S oriented "areas"), so still lots of uncertainty, i.e., for Rahway, for example, we still could see anywhere from 4" to 18", depending on the track and storm evolution - hope to narrow that down soon...
  • Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
  • There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
  • There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are
  • In case anyone is curious, snowfall amounts are supposed to be 20-30" for DC/Balt and much of VA/MD/DE and 14-24" for most of SE PA and South Jersey, including Philly (except much less near the SE NJ coast, i.e,. Cape May/Atlantic Counties, due to rain/sleet mixing in). Could also be a crippling ice storm for parts of NC/SC/GA.
From what you post and what I have seen on the news it's still crazy the the probability of 3 to 20 inches can happen in a very large area. We are all going to get snow and high winds but within 24 hours the uncertainty is still very big
 
Here's a cut/paste from a thread on American on this. These are the times when the various models start spitting out their output. As far as I know, they all ingest the exact same data from the same starting point, i.e., 0Z (7 pm), 6Z (1 am), 12Z (7 am) and 18Z (1 pm).

time model starts to publish output (EST)

GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM)
NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM)
SREF: 8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM)
RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM)
GGEM (CMC): 11:00 (AM/PM
UKMET: 10:40 (AM/PM)
ECMWF (Euro/ECM): 12:45 (AM/PM)


thanks. so does that mean that euro's next run is due 1245, which is 6z?
 
Numbers you should have waited until the GFS rolled in to up those numbers...cut back on qpf north again similar now to its 12z run 0-6 northern NJ. 6-13 CJ with maybe 15-18 to Trenton and 18-24 south of that. Gradient is very very tight...screws northern parts but still decent hit for NJ

definitely did not go toward the silly NAM
 
I think 20 inches is not likely...the only model showing that is the NAM if you are north of Trenton...south of Trenton yes more models give you that potential, that's where you can get hit. Most of NJ is in the 4-16 range down to Trenton but the key is the gradient
 
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