I'll preface this with my usual disclaimer: I'm not a pro and I don't do original "forecasts" from first principles knowledge of meteorology. What I do is read a lot, gather info, then apply a bit of knowledge (chem eng'g and meteorology share the same fundamental underlying sciences - it's just the application which is somewhat different) and experience and take an educated guess at what I think is most likely - and it's usually pretty close to what the NWS says, since I think they're the best at predicting the local weather around here, although there are a few other sources I value highly, also.
Having said that, I put out my initial bulleted list around 7 pm last night and I updated it around 7 pm tonight in my daily weather email, but was too busy to post it here, so here it is, below. Honestly, though, bullet #5 really sums it up, i.e., for Rahway, for example, could still be anywhere from 4-18" (and maybe even wider, lol), even though I'm saying 11" for RY (center of 4-18"), since there's still huge uncertainty in the forecast. That's why this is so fun and frustrating.
- About 10-16” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~10” amounts near 78
- About 6-10” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~6” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
- About 3-6” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~3” amounts near 84)
- Snowfall rapidly dropping off to an inch or so within 10-20 miles north of 84.
- Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south (NNW or SSE, really, but it's easier to use N/S oriented "areas"), so still lots of uncertainty, i.e., for Rahway, for example, we still could see anywhere from 4" to 18", depending on the track and storm evolution - hope to narrow that down soon...
- Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
- There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
- There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are
- In case anyone is curious, snowfall amounts are supposed to be 20-30" for DC/Balt and much of VA/MD/DE and 14-24" for most of SE PA and South Jersey, including Philly (except much less near the SE NJ coast, i.e,. Cape May/Atlantic Counties, due to rain/sleet mixing in). Could also be a crippling ice storm for parts of NC/SC/GA.