OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

[RU848789]

Numbers you should have waited until the GFS rolled in to up those numbers...cut back on qpf north again similar now to its 12z run 0-6 northern NJ. 6-13 CJ with maybe 15-18 to Trenton and 18-24 south of that. Gradient is very very tight...screws northern parts but still decent hit for NJ

definitely did not go toward the silly NAM

Actually, I felt like I was a little too conservative last night and today's runs mostly increased and yeah, I had just seen the 18Z GFS (I'm not counting the NAM) before I upped my numbers slightly tonight. Having said that, I'm very well aligned with the NWS and Nick Gregory and I'm a little less than TWC, which isn't a bad place to be. I have a bit more than a few others, but not by a lot.

Problem for anyone is that bust potential either way is pretty high. For our area, for example, if you predict 10" and get 2" or 18" instead, it seems like a pretty big bust (especially the 2"). However, for an area like Philly, if you predict 18" and get 10" or 26" (the same "delta" of 8"), the bust seems much more minor, since the delta is a much smaller percentage of the original forecast number (8/10 is far more than 8/18).

Here's TWC map for anyone interested...

 

[RU848789]

Ending about when? Thanks for everything as always Erik.

Should be winding down before or by dawn on Sunday.

 

[vkj91]

Numbers you should have waited until the GFS rolled in to up those numbers...cut back on qpf north again similar now to its 12z run 0-6 northern NJ. 6-13 CJ with maybe 15-18 to Trenton and 18-24 south of that. Gradient is very very tight...screws northern parts but still decent hit for NJ

definitely did not go toward the silly NAM

While I don't want to openly support whitebus this is his issue. We went from Armageddon to 0-6 inches in two days. Meanwhile, I've shut down parts of my business, altered schedules, and moved a party for 45 people. Even worse, told my mother I didn't need an overnight sitter and I'd be home at midnight.

 

[bac2therac]

While I don't want to openly support whitebus this is his issue. We went from Armageddon to 0-6 inches in two days. Meanwhile, I've shut down parts of my business, altered schedules, and moved a party for 45 people. Even worse, told my mother I didn't need an overnight sitter and I'd be home at midnight.

where do you live?

 

[bac2therac]

Lee Goldberg has 1-3 far northern Nw NJ
3-6 northern nj to nyc
6-12 nyc, staten island, central jersey
12-18 Trenton to Philly, parts of Monmouth/Ocean Counties and potential for more those spots if they get the banding that far north

 

[Tango Two]

True Canadian model agrees with the gfs model. So what does this all mean? Means the less trusted models show a big snowstorm for most of the area. The more trusted models show a light to moderate event for NYC metro with more for si than the Bronx. Very tight gradient that can shift easily with a 50 mile shift.

 

[RU848789]

Lee Goldberg just showed his map, with the 3" line going from about the Delaware Water Gap to just north of the Tappan Zee, his 6" line going across the very top of Hunterdon/Somerset/Union and through Central Park to the North Shore of LI, and his 12" line going from Trenton to Freehold (with less at the coast due to mixing). He acknowledged the steep gradient especially from 78 north and how challenging the forecast is.

 

[RU848789]

While I don't want to openly support whitebus this is his issue. We went from Armageddon to 0-6 inches in two days. Meanwhile, I've shut down parts of my business, altered schedules, and moved a party for 45 people. Even worse, told my mother I didn't need an overnight sitter and I'd be home at midnight.

I call BS. No reputable source said Armageddon was happening only that 10-20" snows for most of our area were possible a few days ago. For NYC, for example, the most snowfall I've seen actually forecasted is probably about 10-14", with most around 6-12" (I had 4-8" yesterday and 6-10" today). And until we see the storm take shape, I'd say 10" or more in NYC is still possible, even if it's not currently likely. And if NYC just gets 4-6" with 30-40 mph winds, well, cancelling things is still probably a good move. Of course, if we get a redux of 2/6/10 and NYC gets flurries, then you'd have every right to be pissed. Extremely unlikely for that to happen, though (confluence isn't what it was for that storm).

 

[bac2therac]

the gradient on the Canadian Clown Map was sick....from 6 inches in Basking Ridge to 14 inches in Rocky Hill

 

[bac2therac]

I think people need to be careful and understand that even if the NAM depiction is wrong and we aren't getting two feet for most above Trenton, its still a good bet a large part of the state will be dumped with 6-12 inches..its not a historic storm but its a storm that will make you wish you weren't driving on the roads, events should be cancelled Saturday if you are south of Newark

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Looks like my call in that other thread of 7" or less, for Hudson County, is well in line but could get nasty drifts being near the river with these winds.

 

[RU5781]

Ugh. I'm in Hamilton. I'm going to get blasted.

 

[bac2therac]

Ugh. I'm in Hamilton. I'm going to get blasted.

yes you guys have over a foot on every model and the possibility exists you get into that heavy banding that puts you up near 18 inches...happy shoveling

 

[bac2therac]

anyone else staying up for the Euro?

 

[jerzey devil]

yes you guys have over a foot on every model and the possibility exists you get into that heavy banding that puts you up near 18 inches...happy shoveling

its ok Bac...he has his wrangler!!! :cool2::cool2:

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Ugh. I'm in Hamilton. I'm going to get blasted.

Thank God my parent's have one hell of a snow blower. Dad isn't that young anymore.

 

[Tango Two]

Here is the snow projection from the New 0z GFS. As you can see it keeps the main part of the blizzard just south of New York. A small 50 mile shift north is all we need to get back on it. Southern NJ, DE, MD, VA, DC are the winner on this model. It's a battle between short range models that show the blizzard further north and long range models that keep it south now.

 

[RU848789]

Can't make this stuff up, 30 hours from the time the models started (7 pm) to the start of precip (1 am Sat). NAM is snowmageddon with 1-2 feet for all, GFS/Canadian are similar with 3-6" for NYC and 6-12" for most of CNJ, while the UK is 8-12" for NYC and 12-18" for most of CNJ. Euro on deck. Glad my paycheck doesn't depend on doing this.

 

[bac2therac]

the NAM shouldn't even be mentioned

 

[jerzey devil]

the NAM shouldn't even be mentioned

has the NAM ever accurately predicted a storm?

 

[RU848789]

has the NAM ever accurately predicted a storm?

Yes, more than a few times, but it's overall accuracy scores are significantly lower than the Euro and other models. And it has been remarkably consistent the last 4-5 runs.

 

[SBP]

So about 6-8 or so in South Brunswick a safe bet?

 

[RU848789]

So about 6-8 or so in South Brunswick a safe bet?

I'd say that's the low end. More likely to see 8-14" (NWS calling for 9-14" for you).

 

[Tango Two]

0z Euro came north, brings up to 12 inches to NYC and Long Island. Sharp cutoff north of there.

 

[RUhasarrived]

These threads don't get many posts at this time of the morning because the guys on the left coast naturally don't get involved.

 

[RU848789]

Friggin' Euro got stuck for nearly an hour, but the wait was worth it. Significant move to the north by the Euro, bringing much heavier snows into the NYC/North Jersey region. On the map, we're talking 8-14" for NYC from the Bronx down to SI (and in NJ from 80 down to 78, roughly) and we're talking about 12-18" for Central Jersey from 78 down to 195. Could be the NAM was on to something, but still a ways to go.

However, it's starting to look pretty solid for at least 8-14" for all of Central Jersey, as every model is showing that much (except the GFS with 6-12") or more. Expect those blizzard watches to be converted to blizzard warnings and if we do get a foot or more of snow and blizzard conditions, it's going to be downright dangerous out there, so stay safe and try to enjoy it if you can...

 

[RU848789]

And the 6Z NAM just came in and held serve for the 7th run in a row - 20" or more for the entire area. If the NAM is right and it has been before, this will be a crippling storm.

 

[RUbacker]

And the 6Z NAM just came in and held serve for the 7th run in a row - 20" or more for the entire area. If the NAM is right and it has been before, this will be a crippling storm.

And the 6Z NAM just came in and held serve for the 7th run in a row - 20" or more for the entire area. If the NAM is right and it has been before, this will be a crippling storm.

I'm supposed to drive from Middletown to linden around 7 pm tonight and back to Middletown around 11 pm . Any idea is snow will hold off at that time ?

 

[Knight Shift]

I'm supposed to drive from Middletown to linden around 7 pm tonight and back to Middletown around 11 pm . Any idea is snow will hold off at that time ?

Answered above. Snow will not start until after midnight in NJ.

 

[RUbacker]

Answered above. Snow will not start until after midnight in NJ.

Thanks need to get out in time then.

 

[Knight Shift]

Thanks need to get out in time then.

There's no certainty in any of the forecasts, but it looks like a start time of around 3 a.m. Saturday in NJ. First hour or so should not be too bad. I live across the river from you.

 

[NorthNJRUFan]

Weather guys. Does the fact that the euro moved prediction numbers increase ur confidence that the NAM was onto something? Those two seem to be the outliers but I don't track models like many of you.

 

[mildone]

Weather guys. Does the fact that the euro moved prediction numbers increase ur confidence that the NAM was onto something? Those two seem to be the outliers but I don't track models like many of you.

Generally, with winter storms, the Euro has been pretty good, barring last year's NJ area bust. But more importantly, I think that the more there's consensus across the different models, the more likely it'll be that those forecasts will be reasonably accurate.

Looks like Saturday (starting very early AM) will be a day to stay home unless you absolutely have to get somewhere.

 

[MadRU]

Watch switched to warning for NYC.

 

[newell138]

The real question for RU #s is when do you sleep? I need a minimum of 7 hours, how are you up at 3AM and going to work today?

 

[RUaMoose]

Interesting. Between Tango (GFS) and #'s (Euro) latest maps, Middlesex county, particularly the northern half, can get as little as 3-6" or as much as 16"

 

[dconifer]

Just yesterday I leased a shop on the Atlantic City Boardwalk. Now I have something new to worry about when storms come :-(

 

[Bagarocks]

It depends on the SUV, I guess, but no serious snow-plow is getting stuck in only 40" of snow. Is part of why I keep my Suburban around. It handled that storm just fine although going too slowly could cause a problem because of snow buildup ahead of the wheels. That storm was right on the limit, though. Any more and the Suburban would've struggled.

1996 storm Rte, 15 Sparta area. A 5 team snow plow crew (all with years of experience) driving Tri axle dump trucks with 10 foot plows got stuck and completely snowed in. A Cat 988 front end loader from Mt hope quarry had to drive and or plow itself from the quarry to the plow trucks to get them out. So yer statement is incorrect on the snow plows getting stuck. It happens more than you would think.

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly snow maps are 9-14 for Central Jersey.

 

[Knight Shift]

Mike Woods on Fox5 said snow starts early Saturday, done by Sunday 2 p.m. 6-12 inches in NYC/Eastern NJ, with more in southwest NJ and less to north and west.