If you say so, you're the expert. Umm, but tell us mr. compass, aren't there other directions relative to here - namely south, east, and west?
OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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no because models like the GFS and Euro are coming into better agreement about qpf amounts, if they start to keep showing similar gradients in the same spots run after run the consistency of that means the forecaster can be a little more confident rather than if things kept shifiting..todays GFS and Euro is giving more confidence that the from NYC to New Brunswick will be anywhere in the range of 6-14 inches. No models is agreeing with the ridiculous NAM. Models have been pretty consistent that S Jersey down through se PA and DC/Maryland will be the sweet spot.
You are right the models will be looked up right up to the end but you have to put general forecasts out two days away and we are starting to get more of a consensus
wtf are you talking about....if they call for 8-12 inches in CJ and it snows 3 inches its a bust...I could give a crap if it snows 2 feet in DC because that's what they are calling for. Just because storm is coming does not mean its not a bust. Anybody can look at a map to see a storm is coming. That's why we pay mets to put out a forecast. Its a bust in New Jersey of course its not a bust in DC but we do not live in DC so why would a bust apply there
The STORM wouldn't be a bust. The FORECAST would be a bust. This is a historic storm, whether it hits us or not. There's a difference between a storm busting and a forecast busting, in my opinion.
NWS just converted Winter Storm Watches in NJ to Blizzard Watches for the southern 2/3rds of the state. Based on the forecast discussion -- with mixing issues toward the coast, potential "dry slot" issues in SE NJ, and gradient issues in NW NJ -- it seems like the sweet spot will be a diagonal swath, perhaps 30 miles wide, reaching from Virginia through DC through Philly and SW NJ, and up through to about Rte 78 in the Somerset/Union/Essex County area.
The NWS forecast map is showing anywhere from 13-18 inches for most of NJ below Rte 78 (except for coastal Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May Counties), and lesser amounts north of Rte 78.
Of course, it all depends on where the deformation zone and mesoscale banding sets up, but based on the current believed track of the storm -- up the coast from NC/SC and then heading ENE well east and south of Long Island/Cape Cod -- it would certainly make sense that those bands would set up throughout the aforementioned diagonal swath through NJ. The key issue appears to be at what point does the coastal Low turn out to sea.
The NWS forecast map is showing anywhere from 13-18 inches for most of NJ below Rte 78 (except for coastal Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May Counties), and lesser amounts north of Rte 78.
Of course, it all depends on where the deformation zone and mesoscale banding sets up, but based on the current believed track of the storm -- up the coast from NC/SC and then heading ENE well east and south of Long Island/Cape Cod -- it would certainly make sense that those bands would set up throughout the aforementioned diagonal swath through NJ. The key issue appears to be at what point does the coastal Low turn out to sea.
Significant flooding still in play? I'm outta here tomorrow aft. Hope to return Sun nite/Mon morning.
settle down there Superfunguy...ive owned pretty much every Jeep in the series
Learn how to post a pic properly in a thread, then get back to me how "every car can drive in the snow without a problem."
Tell ya what, next time we get 2 feet of snow, we can put my Wrangler up against your Ford Focus, and we'll see who can get down the block without a problem.
I'll snow rally my A3 against your Wrangler.
And this storm is trending slightly toward the "fizzle" end of the spectrum. The current snow maps out of Mt. Holly may be overdone.
Twenty feet. I kind of hope it snows twenty feet of snow this weekend.
I like snow and as long as nobody gets hurt, I could care less how paralyzed cities become. In the time a three foot snowstorm's impact could be called paralyzing, think of all those driving deaths that won't occur because people have to stay home.
And it's not stupid, stupid. It's insensitive or uncaring or thoughtless maybe. But not stupid.
But I agree w/you about the heat. Can always put on more clothes or build a fire to deal with cold. Only so many clothes we can take off to deal with the heat.
This conversation might go better if you let your avatar meat do the thinking for the both of you.
A few years ago when we got hit with a blizzard of 40 inches or so, virtually every vehicle got caught in the snow. It didn't matter if you had a Honda, the biggest SUV or were driving a snow plow.
If it comes down fast enough and there is enough of it, you'll get stuck in the snow.
Yeah, but we can have snowball fights and build snowmen and maybe even a fort. Who knows, maybe we can even break out our skies and go skiing down the street. Won't that be neat ?
Just watch out for the cars and trucks skidding out of control. And the people doing so as well.
Seriously, we'd all love the snow if no one got hurt.
NAM is garbage. Craig Allen the most respected met around nyc for years just called it a putrid model. Weenies at American clinging to it and will be like mice led into the sea to drown
They're practically on suicide watch at this point. I had a Christening to go to Saturday early afternoon and it was rescheduled. When this thing turns out to be a non-story I'm going to feel really bad for my friends who had to scramble to reschedule a 70 person event just 3 days out. The weenies not so much.
It depends on the SUV, I guess, but no serious snow-plow is getting stuck in only 40" of snow. Is part of why I keep my Suburban around. It handled that storm just fine although going too slowly could cause a problem because of snow buildup ahead of the wheels. That storm was right on the limit, though. Any more and the Suburban would've struggled.
Where's your town? If you are in South Jersey, it's probably a smart move on their part. Further north? Well that remains to be seen.
unless you're going to see Disney on Ice, of course.
Lee Goldberg was 3-6 for North Jersey and NYC
6-12 for Central Jersey
both mark slight reductions over his earlier forecasts
6-12 for Central Jersey
both mark slight reductions over his earlier forecasts
Nick Gregory 6-8 NYC and Central Jersey...big cut back in totals especially over CJ
even Mt holly cut back on their snowfall map....8-12 for Somerset and most of Middlesex..southern Middlesex and south jersey 12-18
even Mt holly cut back on their snowfall map....8-12 for Somerset and most of Middlesex..southern Middlesex and south jersey 12-18
That's not a bad shooting percentage from the floor: does he have any eligibility left?
Pinewood Derby rescheduled in my town. Great break for me. I, I mean my son, haven't started making my, I mean my son's car.
new GFS actually came in a bit wetter for Cent Jersey..maybe 10-14 inches verbatim and more for No Jersey and NYC 8-12 but I haven't seen a snow map yet
I totally get it. I, I mean my son spent hours making my, I mean my son's car and I, I mean my son came in first place! I was so proud of me, I mean him.:) He's 19 now and a Rutgers sophomore. Enjoy it while you can!
18Z NAM is snowmageddon again and while it's not the best model, it has nailed a few big storms over the years and is now entering the timeframe when it has more accuracy. That said, there's no other support for over 18" in NYC, North Jersey, and the Hudson Valley, so it can't be taken that seriously. However, the 18Z GFS did nudge about 25 miles northward in its track, bringing 8-12" snows back into NYC and 12-16" snow into most of CNJ (south of 78). I understand why the NWS cut back an inch or two for most zones, but my guess is if they saw the new GFS (and the SREFs), maybe they wouldn't have. Regardless, another model suite tonight to ponder...
I want to thank the people who are providing updates for all of your info and hard work. Years ago I obtained my weather info from TV and radio without all of the hype. When 101.5 fm came on the air they became my go to for weather info as they focused on NJ. I now come to the Rutgers football message board for my up to the minute info. Again, thanks for the hard work.
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