There's no consistency or agreement with the models.
It's time to just say "It's gonna snow" and worry about the 'how much' when it's done.
It's time to just say "It's gonna snow" and worry about the 'how much' when it's done.
OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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For the most part that's true. For me, I'm commuting back and forth to NYC via NJ Transit trains Friday and Saturday. 4-6" on Saturday and I'll go in, since the trains aren't really affected by that much. But if there's going to be a foot of snow even the trains can be affected, not to mention getting to/from the train station. I'll have to clean up the snow at home regardless but it does affect my plans a little.
Lol weenies on American wx dejected they are only getting 4-6 inches in the northern spots. I never will understand people who root for 3 feet as if they are going to rub their bodies in it and eat it
Anyway 6-12 inches is a good bet from nyc south to Trenton...and perhaps some higher lollipops in the southern sections of central jersey...thats my first call but HUGE runs today could change things
Anyway 6-12 inches is a good bet from nyc south to Trenton...and perhaps some higher lollipops in the southern sections of central jersey...thats my first call but HUGE runs today could change things
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Mt. Holly has most of Central Jersey in the 13-15 range. Not sure how accurate they usually are.
Mt. Holly has most of Central Jersey in the 13-15 range. Not sure how accurate they usually are.
At some point attempting to "call" these coastal storms is a complete waste of time and being "right" with a prediction after the fact is pure luck and nothing else. The storm will set up and based on its size and intensity you can get a *general* sense of how much snow it will bring. For this storm, that number is about 10-14". If you're in a particular area that gets dry-slotted (or if you're in a fringe area with a sharp cut-off) then you'll get 4-8. If a band sets up over the top of your house then you'll get 15-20. That's how it goes. Trying to dissect it further is silliness.
10 feet would be awesome. Not something I'd want every year, but great fun every few years.
really because 3 feet paralyzes everything, its just flat out stupid to root for 3 feet of snow in major cities...even worse if you are a grown adult who is doing it. Is it okay to root for a category 5 hurricane to level a coastline just because someone wants to see it. And before I hear the rooting for a storm doesn't change it, its just in bad taste. I like hot weather but I woudnt root for a week of 105 degree temps either.
Agreed. 6 inches of snow is more than enough. It'll coat everything and make it look all winter wonderland-esque. Anything more and it becomes at the very least a major nuisance and if we actually got 3 feet a true disaster as it would screw everyone up for a week at minimum.
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Assembled and tested the new one this morning, as well.
It's really weird to me when something that you uncrate and put together actually starts on the first pull.
Honestly, who gives a sh*t what someone else hopes for snow amount wise? Why does it matter to you or anyone else? You realize he's not some sort of mythical weather deity that can make it snow certain amounts right? Whether he hopes for 2 inches or 20 has absolutely zero affect on anyone else on the planet, including you. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Nothing.
So, I ask again, who gives a sh*t? Jesus guys, give it a rest sometimes...its a freakin weather thread!
Because these people who cheer for all the snow will tell you the same thing..."it has no effect, what does it matter?" That's the convenient, boilerplate response offered by these idiots because they found a way to make it sound like they're not doing anything wrong. But unless those cheering for all the snow, for some reason start bitching and moaning once the snow actually materializes, they're cheering for the snow because it makes them happy and they feel good once they see it. They are all happy with their 8 inches of snow while some other poor schmucks in another location are buried under 2 ft of it, while public transportation is getting destroyed, people are crashing their cars, others are unable to get to work, and oh yeah parts of the Jersey shore are dealing with terrible flooding once again. But it's all okay, because they're so happy they are sitting inside sipping hot chocolate and reliving some part of their childhood.
Losers.
PULL???? No electric start?
Because of the possibility of very high winds and heavy wet snow, which could lead to power outages, I tried to start our generator that we bought during Sandy. I don't think we ran it since Sandy. It's a pull start, and I got a good workout for 30 minutes, but could not get it to start.
I agree.
Knowing the havoc a large snowstorm is gonna have on so many people's lives, it's kinda hard to understand why you would hope for something like that. Very disappointed, RU848789. How about a little compassion for the elderly and the people who have to navigate the roads in that chit ? You're not 12 anymore. It doesn't just mean a day off from school, some sledding, and a couple of snowball fights.
I love snow. I love everything about it: being in it, watching it, tracking its potential and realization, shoveling it, walking in it, playing in it, skiing, sledding, tubing in it, and even watching it slowly melt. So, I will always root for as much snow as possible. Feel free to excoriate me if you like, but it won't affect my outlook (yeah, I love heavy snow, but I'd also hope people are smart and stay safe, if they can) and I'd prefer if people kept that out of the weather threads, as this thread has about 20% weather and 80% bickering.
I will say this: crime goes way down during snowstorms and people die or are injured in heat waves, rainstorms, fog, and thunderstorms, too. So, to be consistent, I'd hope that the people who criticize me and others for love of snow are hammering anyone who doesn't root for San Diego weather, i.e., sunny, mild, and calm.
I will say this: crime goes way down during snowstorms and people die or are injured in heat waves, rainstorms, fog, and thunderstorms, too. So, to be consistent, I'd hope that the people who criticize me and others for love of snow are hammering anyone who doesn't root for San Diego weather, i.e., sunny, mild, and calm.
I direct your attentions to @ruhudsonfan. He's been in the throes of a similar lament for the last several days. Perhaps a club can be formed.
I am the Keeper of the Snowblowers. My next-door neighbor is the Keeper of the Generators. He runs them, all 5 of them, religiously, every 3 months. So I have no concerns that if the time should come that I need one, they will work.
Um, they aren't doing anything wrong, are they? What weather related statute are they violating? They didn't cause the snow, didn't have any effect on it actually so I guess I don't understand why some folks attempt to blame them like "See! If you didn't hope for this, it wouldn't have happened! You caused people to suffer!" That simply doesn't pass the Logic 101 test. Sorry.
Anyway, 12Z NAM is getting into its range and has been pretty consistent with the storm evolution, surprisingly. It shows 1-2 feet for the Philly-NYC corridor and nearby suburbs - less than the ridiculous 3 foot amounts last night, but still more than most models - but believable if the upper level low doesn't close off/capture the surface low and move ENE as much, which is what it shows.
The NAM is garbage at any range. Its not to be believed unless other models are showing similar which they aren't. Goldberg trashed the model last night on his weather broadcast
For weather enthusiasts, it's a passion or hobby, just like anything else...I'm sure it is fascinating to watch all the ingredients that come into play to create a major weather event. Doesn't interest me personally so much, other than the forecasts, but for people who do root for a lot of snow, I can understand the appeal.
What's more baffling to me is people who obviously have no interest in the weather discussion , yet spend so much time in a weather thread just to try to turn it into a soap opera lol
What's more baffling to me is people who obviously have no interest in the weather discussion , yet spend so much time in a weather thread just to try to turn it into a soap opera lol
With it sitting that long, I know I need to drain the old gas, clean the carb, and put fresh gas in it. Solves the problem 90% of the time. Going to also try to move the generator inside to get it warm so it will be easier to start, and I WILL move it back outside before starting it.
so will Sunday be a mess in NB? have church in the morning down in NB, but coming from Bergen...
GFS has a ridiculous cut off and such a sharp gradient, a 50 mile shift could change accumulations in spots by a foot..a 20 mile shift as much as 6 inches. Central Jersey is 8-12 on this run..with a tight gradient, less in the northern spots more in the southern, Trenton is in the 15 inch range here. The gradient got tighter and almost no snow in far nw NJ but the qpf actually increased in central jersey but oh that graident
verbatim its shows a gradient where you might see 0 in NW Jersey, 3 in Ramsey, 6 in Newark, 9 in Bridgewater, 12 in Hillsborough 14 in Princeton and 16 in Trenton
that makes trying to forecast snow amounts for this puppy a complete sh!tfest. So we go on to the Euro
that makes trying to forecast snow amounts for this puppy a complete sh!tfest. So we go on to the Euro
Sadly, I inherited a big-ass Ariens snowblower from my parents, however, there was a part that needed to be replaced in the transference from the motor which we just could not find. Damn shame, 'cause that thing was an absolute beast - made in the 70's, all heavy gauge steel, cut through 20+ inches of snow without a hiccup.
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