OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

[RC1978]

Winter storm watches just posted by the NWS in Philly for their entire area (except Sussex County and the Poconos - less snow there). I wonder if they have some errors, though. Watches are for only 4-8" for the Lehigh Valley, Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer/Monmouth, but then 8-12" in the counties south of there, including Philly to Toms River, and then 12-16" for far southern NJ/DelMarVa. Yet the point-and-click graphic for Edison has 4" of snow on the ground by 8 am, with most of the storm still to come.

Most of the models are showing at least 8-14" for all of Central Jersey and most of North Jersey/NYC (except Sussex) and I would've thought they'd at least have Monmouth/Middlesex/Mercer and maybe Somerset/Hunterdon in the 8-12" zone. Starting off conservative isn't a bad idea, though, especially since they did so poorly with overestimating last year's blizzard in NJ.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Blizzard watches are up for Baltimore and northern MD counties and this could be a major ice storm in places like upstate GA/SC and parts of southern NC/TN (including Charlotte).

Starting when please. LAnding at EWR around dinner time.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Says the guy going to "Frozen on Ice"

Daughters like what they like. I'll take Disney any day of the week, sure as hell beats boy bands! :)

 

[T2Kplus10]

Does that mean you've given up on your 4-6" weather.com fabrication?

Yes, as per Rock, we are up to 4-8 inches. Sorry for the huge mistake!

 

[RocktheRac]

Lee Goldberg just posted 12+ for Somerset County
Nick Gregory has 8-12 for Somerset County with the Western part towards 14

 

[RU848789]

Yes, as per Rock, we are up to 4-8 inches. Sorry for the huge mistake!

Dude - you're like a child - the mistake was you said TWC showed 4-6" and when I posted TWC map showing 8-12" or more for the area, you just repeated your wrong info of 4-6". Just man up and admit you were trolling and wrong.

 

[SouthJerseyRU]

latest from Mt. Holly NWS:

 

[Tango Two]

 

[RU848789]

Winter storm watches just posted by the NWS in Philly for their entire area (except Sussex County and the Poconos - less snow there). I wonder if they have some errors, though. Watches are for only 4-8" for the Lehigh Valley, Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer/Monmouth, but then 8-12" in the counties south of there, including Philly to Toms River, and then 12-16" for far southern NJ/DelMarVa. Yet the point-and-click graphic for Edison has 4" of snow on the ground by 8 am, with most of the storm still to come.

Most of the models are showing at least 8-14" for all of Central Jersey and most of North Jersey/NYC (except Sussex) and I would've thought they'd at least have Monmouth/Middlesex/Mercer and maybe Somerset/Hunterdon in the 8-12" zone. Starting off conservative isn't a bad idea, though, especially since they did so poorly with overestimating last year's blizzard in NJ.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Blizzard watches are up for Baltimore and northern MD counties and this could be a major ice storm in places like upstate GA/SC and parts of southern NC/TN (including Charlotte).

DT/WxRisk just issued his "first guess" map, showing 8-12" for Philly/eastern PA/South Jersey and most of Central/North Jersey, except far northern NJ and the immediate coast (4-8" with some mixing). Has 12-24" for Balt/DC and most of VA and only 4-8" for NYC/LI/CT. Seems like a reasonable starting point.

The Weather Channel, which has gotten much better the past 2-3 years (one of the few sources that called for less snow from NYC and westward in last year's "blizzard"), has 12-18" for most of South/Central Jersey, Philly/eastern PA and 8-12" for most of North Jersey, NYC, LI and 5-8" north of there in far northern NJ, the Poconos, Hudson Valley, southern New England, etc. Certainly a bit more bullish than the NWS or even DT, but does have support from the models, so far. Still a ways to go...

Lastly, Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 is calling for a general 6-12" for NYC/LI/North Jersey with 12" or more in Central Jersey, south of 78, down to Philly and through South Jersey and only 3-6: north of I-84. As noted before, likely to be a pretty sharp gradient from a foot to a few inches on the northern edge of the storm. Again, also more than the NWS, but reasonable. Makes me really think the NWS is being quite gun shy after last year.

Precip should start around dawn on Saturday and go into Sunday morning, with the worst of it likely being from late morning Saturday into the evening.

 

[BigLou]

Lee Goldberg just posted 12+ for Somerset County
Nick Gregory has 8-12 for Somerset County with the Western part towards 14

Lee Goldberg is ok but I will wait until Amy Freeze comes on Saturday morning before I pay too much attention.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Dude - you're like a child - the mistake was you said TWC showed 4-6" and when I posted TWC map showing 8-12" or more for the area, you just repeated your wrong info of 4-6". Just maup and admit you were trolling and wrong.

Are you a child? I already admitted I was wrong. Our forecast is 4-8, not 4-6. Reread my post if you didn't understand it the first time.

 

[Tango Two]

Mr G is usually good

 

[bac2therac]

18z GFS was 8-12 for most of us but sharp gradient to almost nothing at High Point...dont get too caught up in preliminary calls..I have a feeling nothing is settled yet

 

[RU848789]

DT/WxRisk just issued his "first guess" map, showing 8-12" for Philly/eastern PA/South Jersey and most of Central/North Jersey, except far northern NJ and the immediate coast (4-8" with some mixing). Has 12-24" for Balt/DC and most of VA and only 4-8" for NYC/LI/CT. Seems like a reasonable starting point.

The Weather Channel, which has gotten much better the past 2-3 years (one of the few sources that called for less snow from NYC and westward in last year's "blizzard"), has 12-18" for most of South/Central Jersey, Philly/eastern PA and 8-12" for most of North Jersey, NYC, LI and 5-8" north of there in far northern NJ, the Poconos, Hudson Valley, southern New England, etc. Certainly a bit more bullish than the NWS or even DT, but does have support from the models, so far. Still a ways to go...

Lastly, Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 is calling for a general 6-12" for NYC/LI/North Jersey with 12" or more in Central Jersey, south of 78, down to Philly and through South Jersey and only 3-6: north of I-84. As noted before, likely to be a pretty sharp gradient from a foot to a few inches on the northern edge of the storm. Again, also more than the NWS, but reasonable. Makes me really think the NWS is being quite gun shy after last year.

Precip should start around dawn on Saturday and go into Sunday morning, with the worst of it likely being from late morning Saturday into the evening.

For what it's worth, here's what I just sent out to my email lists...

So we do have pretty good model consensus on a major winter storm striking the mid-Atlantic, especially most of VA, MD, DE and at least the southern 1/3 of PA and South Jersey, dropping 12-24” of snow for most of these areas, with high winds and coastal flooding. The unanswered question, though, is how far north of I-195/276 will the heavy snows come? I’ve seen some widely varying snowfall forecasts, so far, for areas north of 195/276, but if I took a consensus from three sources I think are pretty good (NWS, DT/WxRisk, and The Weather Channel, which has gotten much better the past few years – they were the only ones calling for much less snow in NJ for last January’s “blizzard”), plus the major models, the forecast would be as follows:

• Note that the areas below are generally defined by E-W highways for simplicity. In reality, the lines of equal snowfall will more likely be oriented from SSW to ENE (parallel to the storm track), such that the Bronx, along 80 should actually get more than 80 at the Delaware River to the west. If I only knew how to do maps...
• About 8-14” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~8” amounts near 78)
• About 5-8” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~5” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
• About 2-5” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~2” amounts near 84)
• Snowfall rapidly dropping off to near zero snow within 10-20 miles north of 84.
• Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south, so still lots of uncertainty.
• Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
• There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
• There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are

There’s going to be a very steep gradient from SSE to NNW, where we might see (for illustrative purposes) 15” somewhere like Red Bank to 10” in Edison to 6” in Morristown to 3” in Newton to an inch or so in High Point – that’s almost a 15” gradient over 90 miles – not quite as bad as the Feb 6, 2010 storm, but close. The problem is that all of the models, which do now have better data ingested into them, are showing the storm moving NNE from the GA/SC coast to near the DelMarVa and then ENE from there, meaning the heavy snow will only come so far north and then the storm precip shield will essentially slide ENE with the storm, leading to that steep gradient. Where the storm begins that ENE move will determine how far north the precip shield makes it - and who gets shafted (or is happy, lol).

Of course, we’re still 2.5 days away from the first flakes (starting around midnight near Philly and by dawn in NYC), so the evolution of this system could still change substantially and come further north giving great snows to areas I said won’t get much (and rain/sleet up to I-95) or it could head out to sea even further south, meaning little to no snow for North Jersey, NYC, LI and maybe even Central Jersey, but right now the model consensus would produce something relatively close to what I outlined in the bullets above, +/- at least 30%. Stay tuned.

 

[RocktheRac]

Thanks #'s. I was on the Ameriwx board and couldnt take their biased and wishful discussions today. Unbearable.

 

[bac2therac]

the weenie board scared all the quality mets away. The guys to pay attention to are forkyfork, Sacrus, danstorm...that pb guy is insufferable and arrogant even if he knows his stuff. The Philly forum which has died a slow death used to have guys like mitchelgaines and famartin but I don't even think they post their anymore

 

[bac2therac]

the parallel Euro and the GEFS means only spit out 4-8 inches

 

[Abro1975]

Sounds like very severe flooding along the Jersey Coast will be more to worry about than the snow itself.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...er_forecasters_say.html#incart_river_home_pop

 

[RC1978]

For what it's worth, here's what I just sent out to my email lists...

So we do have pretty good model consensus on a major winter storm striking the mid-Atlantic, especially most of VA, MD, DE and at least the southern 1/3 of PA and South Jersey, dropping 12-24” of snow for most of these areas, with high winds and coastal flooding. The unanswered question, though, is how far north of I-195/276 will the heavy snows come? I’ve seen some widely varying snowfall forecasts, so far, for areas north of 195/276, but if I took a consensus from three sources I think are pretty good (NWS, DT/WxRisk, and The Weather Channel, which has gotten much better the past few years – they were the only ones calling for much less snow in NJ for last January’s “blizzard”), plus the major models, the forecast would be as follows:

• Note that the areas below are generally defined by E-W highways for simplicity. In reality, the lines of equal snowfall will more likely be oriented from SSW to ENE (parallel to the storm track), such that the Bronx, along 80 should actually get more than 80 at the Delaware River to the west. If I only knew how to do maps...
• About 8-14” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~8” amounts near 78)
• About 5-8” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~5” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
• About 2-5” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~2” amounts near 84)
• Snowfall rapidly dropping off to near zero snow within 10-20 miles north of 84.
• Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south, so still lots of uncertainty.
• Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
• There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
• There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are

There’s going to be a very steep gradient from SSE to NNW, where we might see (for illustrative purposes) 15” somewhere like Red Bank to 10” in Edison to 6” in Morristown to 3” in Newton to an inch or so in High Point – that’s almost a 15” gradient over 90 miles – not quite as bad as the Feb 6, 2010 storm, but close. The problem is that all of the models, which do now have better data ingested into them, are showing the storm moving NNE from the GA/SC coast to near the DelMarVa and then ENE from there, meaning the heavy snow will only come so far north and then the storm precip shield will essentially slide ENE with the storm, leading to that steep gradient. Where the storm begins that ENE move will determine how far north the precip shield makes it - and who gets shafted (or is happy, lol).

Of course, we’re still 2.5 days away from the first flakes (starting around midnight near Philly and by dawn in NYC), so the evolution of this system could still change substantially and come further north giving great snows to areas I said won’t get much (and rain/sleet up to I-95) or it could head out to sea even further south, meaning little to no snow for North Jersey, NYC, LI and maybe even Central Jersey, but right now the model consensus would produce something relatively close to what I outlined in the bullets above, +/- at least 30%. Stay tuned.

For what it's worth, here's what I just sent out to my email lists...

So we do have pretty good model consensus on a major winter storm striking the mid-Atlantic, especially most of VA, MD, DE and at least the southern 1/3 of PA and South Jersey, dropping 12-24” of snow for most of these areas, with high winds and coastal flooding. The unanswered question, though, is how far north of I-195/276 will the heavy snows come? I’ve seen some widely varying snowfall forecasts, so far, for areas north of 195/276, but if I took a consensus from three sources I think are pretty good (NWS, DT/WxRisk, and The Weather Channel, which has gotten much better the past few years – they were the only ones calling for much less snow in NJ for last January’s “blizzard”), plus the major models, the forecast would be as follows:

• Note that the areas below are generally defined by E-W highways for simplicity. In reality, the lines of equal snowfall will more likely be oriented from SSW to ENE (parallel to the storm track), such that the Bronx, along 80 should actually get more than 80 at the Delaware River to the west. If I only knew how to do maps...
• About 8-14” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~8” amounts near 78)
• About 5-8” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~5” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
• About 2-5” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~2” amounts near 84)
• Snowfall rapidly dropping off to near zero snow within 10-20 miles north of 84.
• Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south, so still lots of uncertainty.
• Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
• There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
• There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are

There’s going to be a very steep gradient from SSE to NNW, where we might see (for illustrative purposes) 15” somewhere like Red Bank to 10” in Edison to 6” in Morristown to 3” in Newton to an inch or so in High Point – that’s almost a 15” gradient over 90 miles – not quite as bad as the Feb 6, 2010 storm, but close. The problem is that all of the models, which do now have better data ingested into them, are showing the storm moving NNE from the GA/SC coast to near the DelMarVa and then ENE from there, meaning the heavy snow will only come so far north and then the storm precip shield will essentially slide ENE with the storm, leading to that steep gradient. Where the storm begins that ENE move will determine how far north the precip shield makes it - and who gets shafted (or is happy, lol).

Of course, we’re still 2.5 days away from the first flakes (starting around midnight near Philly and by dawn in NYC), so the evolution of this system could still change substantially and come further north giving great snows to areas I said won’t get much (and rain/sleet up to I-95) or it could head out to sea even further south, meaning little to no snow for North Jersey, NYC, LI and maybe even Central Jersey, but right now the model consensus would produce something relatively close to what I outlined in the bullets above, +/- at least 30%. Stay tuned.

Thanks for all yout posts. One stupid question I am in Dallas flying out Friday mor

For what it's worth, here's what I just sent out to my email lists...

So we do have pretty good model consensus on a major winter storm striking the mid-Atlantic, especially most of VA, MD, DE and at least the southern 1/3 of PA and South Jersey, dropping 12-24” of snow for most of these areas, with high winds and coastal flooding. The unanswered question, though, is how far north of I-195/276 will the heavy snows come? I’ve seen some widely varying snowfall forecasts, so far, for areas north of 195/276, but if I took a consensus from three sources I think are pretty good (NWS, DT/WxRisk, and The Weather Channel, which has gotten much better the past few years – they were the only ones calling for much less snow in NJ for last January’s “blizzard”), plus the major models, the forecast would be as follows:

• Note that the areas below are generally defined by E-W highways for simplicity. In reality, the lines of equal snowfall will more likely be oriented from SSW to ENE (parallel to the storm track), such that the Bronx, along 80 should actually get more than 80 at the Delaware River to the west. If I only knew how to do maps...
• About 8-14” from 276/195 up to about I-78 (with the ~8” amounts near 78)
• About 5-8” from 78 up to about I-80 (with the ~5” amounts near 80), including Newark, NYC, and LI
• About 2-5” from 80 up to about I-84 (with the ~2” amounts near 84)
• Snowfall rapidly dropping off to near zero snow within 10-20 miles north of 84.
• Note that a minor 25 mile shift in track moves these amounts 25 miles north or south, so still lots of uncertainty.
• Near the Jersey Shore, accumulations could be held down by mixing with sleet and maybe even rain (they’ll likely get enough precip for 16” or more if it’s all snow).
• There will be gale force winds and possible blizzard conditions for the NJ/NYC/LI coasts, as well as possible moderate to even major (but not Sandyesque) coastal flooding, especially since we’ll have a full moon on Sat
• There could be also be power outages anywhere, especially near the coast or where the heaviest snows are

There’s going to be a very steep gradient from SSE to NNW, where we might see (for illustrative purposes) 15” somewhere like Red Bank to 10” in Edison to 6” in Morristown to 3” in Newton to an inch or so in High Point – that’s almost a 15” gradient over 90 miles – not quite as bad as the Feb 6, 2010 storm, but close. The problem is that all of the models, which do now have better data ingested into them, are showing the storm moving NNE from the GA/SC coast to near the DelMarVa and then ENE from there, meaning the heavy snow will only come so far north and then the storm precip shield will essentially slide ENE with the storm, leading to that steep gradient. Where the storm begins that ENE move will determine how far north the precip shield makes it - and who gets shafted (or is happy, lol).

Of course, we’re still 2.5 days away from the first flakes (starting around midnight near Philly and by dawn in NYC), so the evolution of this system could still change substantially and come further north giving great snows to areas I said won’t get much (and rain/sleet up to I-95) or it could head out to sea even further south, meaning little to no snow for North Jersey, NYC, LI and maybe even Central Jersey, but right now the model consensus would produce something relatively close to what I outlined in the bullets above, +/- at least 30%. Stay tuned.

Thanks for all your posts. When you say "midnight near philly" do you mean midnight Friday night? Thanks

 

[bac2therac]

yes

 

[mikemarc1]

just got NAM'd again. LOL.

 

[njdirt]

just got NAM'd again. LOL.

 

[mikemarc1]

Almost has to be overdone with amounts. Key takeaway is it shifted the storm about 70 miles north. Lets see if other models follow.

 

[RU848789]

Well, we just got our insane NAM run - we seem to get at least one off the charts run per major snowstorm - as the 0Z NAM shows 2-3 feet of snow for most of SE PA into all of NJ into NYC/LI. This won't verify, but it certainly signals the potential for this storm if it can come another 50-75 miles north, as this did, before heading ENE out to sea - still doesn't get much snow north of I-84, but it does get snow into SE New England. Would likely be some mixing issues for the NJ coast and LI.

 

[RUScrew85]

Well, we just got our insane NAM run - we seem to get at least one off the charts run per major snowstorm - as the 0Z NAM shows 2-3 feet of snow for most of SE PA into all of NJ into NYC/LI. This won't verify, but it certainly signals the potential for this storm if it can come another 50-75 miles north, as this did, before heading ENE out to sea - still doesn't get much snow north of I-84, but it does get snow into SE New England. Would likely be some mixing issues for the NJ coast and LI.

Increasing the French Toast Status to... Pale Red

 

[bac2therac]

the NAM is a joke as usual, don't know why they don't toss into the landfill

 

[WhiteBus]

Increasing the French Toast Status to... Pale Red

That means a different booze. Pale Ale maybe??

 

[BigEastPhil]

Met on TV 12 who is good and will always deviate from the models predicted 12 - 18+ plus for Central NJ excluding Coast. Nick Gregory stayed within models but stated he is leaning to more snow to the east in Central NJ - thus somewhat agreeing with the TV 12 weatherman.

 

[vkj91]

the NAM is a joke as usual, don't know why they don't toss into the landfill

When's the next update for the better models?

 

[bac2therac]

Oh the GFS just said hold everything just 4-8 trenton north and thats if mixing issues do not come into play..seemed further west

 

[T2Kplus10]

[roll]
Gotta love the NAM

 

[MGSA99]

Holy crap, who owns the NAM, Roland Emmerich?

 

[OTBOTOR]

Increasing the French Toast Status to... Pale Red

That looks more like salmon to me.

 

[RUScrew85]

That means a different booze. Pale Ale maybe??

Rose' ? Ewww.

 

[RU848789]

Well, we just got our insane NAM run - we seem to get at least one off the charts run per major snowstorm - as the 0Z NAM shows 2-3 feet of snow for most of SE PA into all of NJ into NYC/LI. This won't verify, but it certainly signals the potential for this storm if it can come another 50-75 miles north, as this did, before heading ENE out to sea - still doesn't get much snow north of I-84, but it does get snow into SE New England. Would likely be some mixing issues for the NJ coast and LI.

And the 0Z GFS brings everyone back to earth, with more like 8-12" for most - less precip, plus some mixing possible even towards I-95. Going to be a long 48-60 hours before we actually start to see what happens, lol.

 

[RocktheRac]

Even Lonnie Quinn said toss it out.

 

[RU848789]

And the 0Z GFS brings everyone back to earth, with more like 8-12" for most - less precip, plus some mixing possible even towards I-95. Going to be a long 48-60 hours before we actually start to see what happens, lol.

Canadian was more like 8-14", but Euro was only 4-8" for most of Central Jersey into NYC, which was disappointing after showing much more earlier today. So, maybe 6-12" is a decent guess at this point, with the 6" or less north of 78 and the 12" amounts as one nears 195. Really tough to tell what's going to happen with this kind of model variability.

 

[RocktheRac]

Canadian was more like 8-14", but Euro was only 4-8" for most of Central Jersey into NYC, which was disappointing after showing much more earlier today. So, maybe 6-12" is a decent guess at this point, with the 6" or less north of 78 and the 12" amounts as one nears 195. Really tough to tell what's going to happen with this kind of model variability.

Why is this disappointing? Isn't 4 to 8 enough? Why do we need crippling snow. This is what I don't understand. Why not just shoot for 10 feet?

 

[newell138]

My prediction based on nothing is that we will not see more than 6 inches in most of NJ.

 

[RocktheRac]

Frank Lomabardo WCTC. Heavy snow Saturday Central NJ 10 to 20 inches.

 

[RU848789]

NWS went with winter storm watches for everyone and blizzard watches for NYC/LI. Snowfall maps are out. Basically 8-12" from 78 to 80 including NYC/LI and 12-16" south of 78 in PA/NJ, except less near the coast south of Toms River, due to mixing; 4-8" for far northern NJ/Poconos/Hudson Valley/CT. Last night I thought they'd increase amounts, but they went even further than I thought they would, especially given the lower amounts on the Euro. Still a ways to go...