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OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

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He's a meteorologist. Some love him. A certain member, here, who stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night thinks he's awesome. I have no opinion one way or the other, because like all mets he's right sometimes and wrong a little bit more often. The weenies on the AmWX board really hate him, though, because he only shows up so that he can piss on their predictions of 4' of snow.

For those who don't know, DT is Dave Tolleris, Class of '79 from West Windsor, if I recall correctly (a coworker graduated HS with him) and he now goes by WxRisk - see the link. I wouldn't say awesome, but he is entertaining in his scathing way, and I do like that he's completely independent, with his goal being to get it right (he makes money from commodities forecasting, so he doesn't accept ads on FB). He's been way ahead of the curve on this one calling for major snows throughout VA/MD/DE and especially SE VA, including Richmond for days, when the NWS and other pros down there were saying mostly rain and/or less snow. And he's been downplaying snowfall amounts north of Trenton, which still looks correct, relatively speaking vs. DC to Philly, although he may end up being under around here, but who knows. You are right about the NYC weenies hating him, as he loves to needle them. I do follow him pretty closely and I'd say he has one of the better records out there - another thing I like is that he'll also be just as brutal on himself as anyone else, when he's wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/
 
Ah, I guess that I shouldn't mention that every Sunday I fix French Toast and Bacon for Tyler and Corey. Although occasionally we'll switch over to Pancakes. And sometimes I'll fire up the grill and add in some Johnsonville Brown Sugar and Honey Breakfast Sausage.
You suck. [laughing]

I think I'll go have a delicious stalk of celery now. I'm sure that will make me feel better.
 
anyhoo if you haven't been paying attention Shop Rite is in the midst of its annual can can sale and I have been cleaning up for weeks stocking up and preparing for some sort of apocalypse. I must have about 15 cans of tuna, 8 cans of veggies, 8 cans of soup, 10 containers of peanut butter. What a perfect time to stock up your pantry with stuff to get your through the one day you cant get out on the street
 
For those who don't know, DT is Dave Tolleris, Class of '79 from West Windsor, if I recall correctly (a coworker graduated HS with him) and he now goes by WxRisk - see the link. I wouldn't say awesome, but he is entertaining in his scathing way, and I do like that he's completely independent, with his goal being to get it right (he makes money from commodities forecasting, so he doesn't accept ads on FB). He's been way ahead of the curve on this one calling for major snows throughout VA/MD/DE and especially SE VA, including Richmond for days, when the NWS and other pros down there were saying mostly rain and/or less snow. And he's been downplaying snowfall amounts north of Trenton, which still looks correct, relatively speaking vs. DC to Philly, although he may end up being under around here, but who knows. You are right about the NYC weenies hating him, as he loves to needle them. I do follow him pretty closely and I'd say he has one of the better records out there - another thing I like is that he'll also be just as brutal on himself as anyone else, when he's wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/


what is stunning is how the weenies actually talk to a met like they know more than him
 
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"Canned veggies"?

Dude, that's disgusting. There's literally no more useless food than canned vegetables.[/QUOTEI;

I'm surprised you eat canned veggies. For you that's too much sodium, Try frozen or fresh
 
[laughing]
Yes, because 8-12 inches of snow is SOOOOOO deadly. Good grief! When did America become so wussy?

Well, you don't need a Masters in Atmospheric Science to tell you that covering 3/4 of your car tire in snow is a recipe for disaster and a danger to anyone who draws the short straw to come rescue you.

Make sure you use the "don't you know who I am?" line when the state trooper pulls you over. That always works.
 
Actually there plenty of no salt added veggies and shoot me I like creamed corn..also have black and red beans for chili and soup
 
Just like there's no crying in baseball, there's no sarcasm in meteorology. Plus we do see some dumb posts here, so it's not always easy to tell the jokers from the tokers...

Hey now feller, Just who in u callin dumb? just cuz I'm an idiot...[cheers][cheers][cheers]
 
Actually there plenty of no salt added veggies and shoot me I like creamed corn..also have black and red beans for chili and soup

The jokes just write themselves here on ScarletNation, folks.

Back on topic, the 18Z NAM (which is probably outside of its accuracy, still) is way slower than any of the other models. Brings the low offshore right around the VA/NC border at 10PM Friday night with initial precip just starting to move into NJ at that time.
 
NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Somerset County for 4-8 inches of snow. This is wierd because it was issued out of Philly and label Hillsborough as a norther suburb of Philly.
 
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The jokes just write themselves here on ScarletNation, folks.

Back on topic, the 18Z NAM (which is probably outside of its accuracy, still) is way slower than any of the other models. Brings the low offshore right around the VA/NC border at 10PM Friday night with initial precip just starting to move into NJ at that time.

and for the idiots on here (like me) that means?
 
NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Somerset County for 4-8 inches of snow. This is wierd because it was issued out of Philly and label Hillsborough as a norther suburb of Philly.

so the milfs are a part of Philly now? hehehehe
 
Can someone post the Euro for the Carolinas? People lose their collective s--t out here if even a flake comes down. Which is actually happening right now.
 
NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Somerset County for 4-8 inches of snow. This is wierd because it was issued out of Philly and label Hillsborough as a norther suburb of Philly.

Somerset is under a Watch, not a Warning.
 
and for the idiots on here (like me) that means?

The NAM (North American Mesoscale) is a model that runs out to 84 hours. It just finished its latest run and shows a slower-moving (actually, later arriving) storm than other models, however it also shows more snow.

This is to be taken with a grain of salt because most people don't like the NAM outside of 48 hours.
 
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Winter storm watches just posted by the NWS in Philly for their entire area (except Sussex County and the Poconos - less snow there). I wonder if they have some errors, though. Watches are for only 4-8" for the Lehigh Valley, Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer/Monmouth, but then 8-12" in the counties south of there, including Philly to Toms River, and then 12-16" for far southern NJ/DelMarVa. Yet the point-and-click graphic for Edison has 4" of snow on the ground by 8 am, with most of the storm still to come.

Most of the models are showing at least 8-14" for all of Central Jersey and most of North Jersey/NYC (except Sussex) and I would've thought they'd at least have Monmouth/Middlesex/Mercer and maybe Somerset/Hunterdon in the 8-12" zone. Starting off conservative isn't a bad idea, though, especially since they did so poorly with overestimating last year's blizzard in NJ.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Blizzard watches are up for Baltimore and northern MD counties and this could be a major ice storm in places like upstate GA/SC and parts of southern NC/TN (including Charlotte).
 
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Winter storm watches just posted by the NWS in Philly for their entire area (except Sussex County and the Poconos - less snow there). I wonder if they have some errors, though. Watches are for only 4-8" for the Lehigh Valley, Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer/Monmouth, but then 8-12" in the counties south of there, including Philly to Toms River, and then 12-16" for far southern NJ/DelMarVa. Yet the point-and-click graphic for Edison has 4" of snow on the ground by 8 am, with most of the storm still to come.

Most of the models are showing at least 8-14" for all of Central Jersey and most of North Jersey/NYC (except Sussex) and I would've thought they'd at least have Monmouth/Middlesex/Mercer and maybe Somerset/Hunterdon in the 8-12" zone. Starting off conservative isn't a bad idea, though, especially since they did so poorly with overestimating last year's blizzard in NJ.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Blizzard watches are up for Baltimore and northern MD counties and this could be a major ice storm in places like upstate GA/SC and parts of southern NC/TN (including Charlotte).

The potential for ice is what I am worried about. 6 inches of snow is nothing but even a quarter inch of ice makes roads impassable no matter what you drive.
 
Oh good. So you can enjoy my impending demise. I figured you'd recognize that the no carbs thing is blood sugar related and would suggest I not be sparing with the pure maple syrup on my loaf of French toast.

Although, it has occurred to me that you may enjoy it more if my demise came at your own hands. If so, I might put off my suicide by French toast, not wanting to rob you of the pleasure of shooting me, or beating me to death, or something fun and satisfying like that.

I told you I love you, man. :)
You take care of yourself.
 
the NAMs gradient is ridiculous...we could get 18 inches of snow here and 10 miles north of the NJ border nothing

I think that's why these early calls are conservative...we are still 60 hours away from start time, tonight and tomorrows runs will hone down on this puppy
 
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