OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

[RU848789]

Anyway, 12Z NAM is getting into its range and has been pretty consistent with the storm evolution, surprisingly. It shows 1-2 feet for the Philly-NYC corridor and nearby suburbs - less than the ridiculous 3 foot amounts last night, but still more than most models - but believable if the upper level low doesn't close off/capture the surface low and move ENE as much, which is what it shows.

And, of course, the GFS is much different with more like 8-12" for Central Jersey and maybe 4-8" for NYC and most of North Jersey and very little north of I-84. Very difficult to make forecasts with this kind of model mayhem. I'm sure there are a few mets out there who are very skilled at picking and choosing which model has it "right" but none of them get it right all the time, which is why it's so fascinating to track and sometimes be very surprised.

One other point that can't be emphasized enough. When we get into the storm, there will be mesoscale "deformation bands" of heavy snow that will cover local swaths (maybe 20-30 miles wide and 50-60 miles long, usually oriented to the NW of the low pressure system, i.e., somewhere over parts of our area) of the area for an hour or two at a time - these are driven by incredible vertical velocities/mixing/convection, akin to thunderstorms and can put down 3-6" of snow in 1-2 hours, greatly affecting accumulations - like t-storms they are impossible to predict, but we know we'll see some of these with this storm. These are often what cause most of an area to get 4-8" and a part of the area to get 8-14".

 

[RUaDevil]

I can certainly understand winding up with such a gradient, but I cannot see how you could actually try to predict it. I'm in the "hoping for 12+" club in CNJ.

 

[RU848789]

What is causing this gradient? How is it even scienfitcally possible a 50-mile north to south trek goes from 0 to a foot?

Interesting stuff.

Actually, that's a mild gradient compared to what we get in summertime thunderstorms. It's all a function of the total atmospheric energy and at 30C in summer, the energy is 8x what it is in winter when it's around 0C (the Arrhenius relationships, wherein energy roughly doubles with each 10C temp rise). When energy levels are 8X more in summer, predicting heavy t-storm rainfall location is essentially impossible, which is why you can see 2-3" of rain (2-3 feet of snow equivalent) in one stretch of towns and see nearly nothing 5-10 miles away.

Imagine if we saw that kind of gradient or variability over short distances with snowstorms. People would freak out and, of course, lambaste the forecasters. But in the summer, it's just rain and some lightning and maybe some high winds, but people generally ignore these huge differences, because the effect is usually temporary. Keep that in mind when looking at snowfall gradients like we might see with this storm, which are severe relative to other snowstorms (but still not as severe as the Feb 6, 2010 storm), but not severe at all when compared to summertime t-storms.

 

[RUScrew85]

Blizzard watches just posted for most of NJ.

FRENCH TOAST WARNING LEVEL --> SCARLET!!!

EVERYONE PANIC!

 

[Crazed_RU]

I think it's really important that the title of this thread be changed to "this weekend" instead of "next weekend". I'm really hung up on this.

 

[RU848789]

I can certainly understand winding up with such a gradient, but I cannot see how you could actually try to predict it. I'm in the "hoping for 12+" club in CNJ.

Actually, predicting that there will be a gradient isn't that hard, but predicting where the gradient starts and ends is extremely difficult, since the accuracy of a storm track even at 12-24 hours out is typically +/-25-50 miles, as we saw in last year's "blizzard." That's why I said last night that if the track is 50 miles NW of the forecast, that gradient moves 50 miles to the NW (but the same gradient of, say 0 to 16" over 50-75 miles is still intact) and if the track is 50 miles to the SE of the forecast, the gradient moves 50 miles to the SE, roughly speaking. That's also why from about Philly to LBI and points south, they're almost certain to get their 12"+, since even a 75 mile shift SE in the track would still put them at the northern edge of the heavy snow, whereas a 75 mile track shift to the SE has Edison going from maybe 12" to perhaps an inch or so.

 

[Knight Shift]

Actually, predicting that there will be a gradient isn't that hard, but predicting where the gradient starts and ends is extremely difficult, since the accuracy of a storm track even at 12-24 hours out is typically +/-25-50 miles, as we saw in last year's "blizzard." That's why I said last night that if the track is 50 miles NW of the forecast, that gradient moves 50 miles to the NW (but the same gradient of, say 0 to 16" over 50-75 miles is still intact) and if the track is 50 miles to the SE of the forecast, the gradient moves 50 miles to the SE, roughly speaking. That's also why from about Philly to LBI and points south, they're almost certain to get their 12"+, since even a 75 mile shift SE in the track would still put them at the northern edge of the heavy snow, whereas a 75 mile track shift to the SE has Edison going from maybe 12" to perhaps an inch or so.

Yet, some will complain about what a bust the forecast was if the precipitation amounts are not within 1-2" of the predicted amounts.
I'm OK with --there is going to be measurable snow.

 

[RutgersUnion]

FRENCH TOAST WARNING LEVEL --> SCARLET!!!

EVERYONE PANIC!

 

[T2Kplus10]

The last time we had such a severe gradient, it led to one of the biggest busts in history. Looking forward to the same this weekend. Disney on Ice, here we come! :)

 

[newell138]

I love snow. I love everything about it: being in it, watching it, tracking its potential and realization, shoveling it, walking in it, playing in it, skiing, sledding, tubing in it, and even watching it slowly melt. So, I will always root for as much snow as possible. Feel free to excoriate me if you like, but it won't affect my outlook (yeah, I love heavy snow, but I'd also hope people are smart and stay safe, if they can) and I'd prefer if people kept that out of the weather threads, as this thread has about 20% weather and 80% bickering.

I will say this: crime goes way down during snowstorms and people die or are injured in heat waves, rainstorms, fog, and thunderstorms, too. So, to be consistent, I'd hope that the people who criticize me and others for love of snow are hammering anyone who doesn't root for San Diego weather, i.e., sunny, mild, and calm.

How can anyone not enjoy a good blizzard, Especially on a weekend? I just wish the NFL games were on Saturday instead of Sunday. Nothing like watching the snow pile up with the fire going and some NFL playoff action on the TV. I find it just as odd that anyone cares if someone likes it or doesnt like it? I am at the age (53) that I really dont give a sh*t anymore what anyone does as long as it doesn't affect me in a negative way.

 

[Kbee3]

Um, they aren't doing anything wrong, are they? What weather related statute are they violating? They didn't cause the snow, didn't have any effect on it actually so I guess I don't understand why some folks attempt to blame them like "See! If you didn't hope for this, it wouldn't have happened! You caused people to suffer!" That simply doesn't pass the Logic 101 test. Sorry.

Huh ?
Who said that RU848789 rooting for snow was gonna have an affect on whether or not we actually get snow ? That's silly. That'd be like praying to some guy in white robes up in the sky for your sports team to win or to make your uncle Leo's cancer disappear.
Some of us are just disappointed with the cheerleading FOR snow...lots of snow. To me it's like hoping someone dies so you can go to the cemetery....'cause you just love visiting cemeteries. Look, I'm retired, so I don't have to brave the roads in the ice and snow anymore. But I empathize with those who do. Perhaps I've seen too many people trudge out to their cars, struggle to remove the ice and snow, and then sweat bullets as they make the perilous journey across crappy roads to get home. Perhaps I've seen too many a-holes driving stupidly in the kind of conditions we're gonna have Saturday and smashing into other poor souls that were stuck out there in that glorious winter wonderland. Maybe it's just that I've spent too many days in my earlier years trying to navigate rte. 280 in that white crap.
But lots of people are gonna have a bad time of it when this storm hits. And it's with those people in mind that I object to the snow cheerleaders. Friggin grow up. If you love that chit so much, do what a friend of mine did...move to Vermont.

 

[WhiteBus]

FRENCH TOAST WARNING LEVEL --> SCARLET!!!

EVERYONE PANIC!

Are you saying my dog ate your French Toast?? Bad dog!

 

[BuggsyRU]

The last time we had such a severe gradient, it led to one of the biggest busts in history. Looking forward to the same this weekend. Disney on Ice, here we come! :)

Have fun! Call us from the tow truck!

 

[retired711]

With all respect to those commenting on the issue, I really wish people here would stick to the question of how much snow there will be and when, rather than go back and forth on whether RU#s is the Devil Incarnate for liking snow. I continue, btw, to urge the various weather forecasters here to mention what will happen south of Trenton; I've heard that the NWS is estimating 17 inches for the South Jersey suburbs of Philadelphia.

 

[NJgold]

I would simply add that, the more snow, the less chance of summer drought, as long as the snow falls in the right places.

 

[Skull83]

I'm just a long time fan of these threads with no meteorlogical background. Hell, I just had to look up how to spell meteorological in the dictionary! But I'm a little confused about some people's use of the term "bust" when it comes to forecasting. To me, a storm is a bust if it never materializes, dissipates, etc. If the storm develops as expected and the track just takes it a little north or south, how is that a bust?

 

[RU4Real]

I'm just a long time fan of these threads with no meteorlogical background. Hell, I just had to look up how to spell meteorological in the dictionary! But I'm a little confused about some people's use of the term "bust" when it comes to forecasting. To me, a storm is a bust if it never materializes, dissipates, etc. If the storm develops as expected and the track just takes it a little north or south, how is that a bust?

Because the common perspective for all these guys (and really, most people) is "IMBY" - "in my backyard".

 

[bac2therac]

If CJ only gets 3 inches or less thia storm is a clear bust

 

[mdh2003]

Because the common perspective for all these guys (and really, most people) is "IMBY" - "in my backyard".

If CJ only gets 3 inches or less thia storm is a clear bust

I just wanted to try the multi-quote feature. No better example than these 2 posts.

 

[rulaw87]

If CJ only gets 3 inches or less thia storm is a clear bust

To me, 36 DD is a clear bust.

 

[RU848789]

With all respect to those commenting on the issue, I really wish people here would stick to the question of how much snow there will be and when, rather than go back and forth on whether RU#s is the Devil Incarnate for liking snow. I continue, btw, to urge the various weather forecasters here to mention what will happen south of Trenton; I've heard that the NWS is estimating 17 inches for the South Jersey suburbs of Philadelphia.

Agreed. On AmericanWx, they'd "5-post" people or tell them to take it to the "banter" thread, so the actual discussion thread doesn't get cluttered up. But hey, if people want to argue, let 'em argue, I guess.

Anyway, it's been posted a couple of times, but you may have missed it. Here's the NWS map for snowfall. For where you are (Cherry Hill, iirc; I grew up near there), expect a minimum of 10" even if this is a bust with only 1-2" in NYC and 2-4" in NB/Somerville/most of CNJ and expect 14-20" if the forecasts are correct. There's upside for up to 24" there.

 

[rutgers48]

Huh ?
Who said that RU848789 rooting for snow was gonna have an affect on whether or not we actually get snow ? That's silly. That'd be like praying to some guy in white robes up in the sky for your sports team to win or to make your uncle Leo's cancer disappear.
Some of us are just disappointed with the cheerleading FOR snow...lots of snow. To me it's like hoping someone dies so you can go to the cemetery....'cause you just love visiting cemeteries. Look, I'm retired, so I don't have to brave the roads in the ice and snow anymore. But I empathize with those who do. Perhaps I've seen too many people trudge out to their cars, struggle to remove the ice and snow, and then sweat bullets as they make the perilous journey across crappy roads to get home. Perhaps I've seen too many a-holes driving stupidly in the kind of conditions we're gonna have Saturday and smashing into other poor souls that were stuck out there in that glorious winter wonderland. Maybe it's just that I've spent too many days in my earlier years trying to navigate rte. 280 in that white crap.
But lots of people are gonna have a bad time of it when this storm hits. And it's with those people in mind that I object to the snow cheerleaders. Friggin grow up. If you love that chit so much, do what a friend of mine did...move to Vermont.

The guy who I previously quoted said that they were "doing something wrong" if rooting for snow. And yes, that is silly, something we can agree on. Look, no one wants to be stuck in snow, shovel for hours, etc. That's a no brainer. What gets me though is why some of you guys get so passionate about some guy who says he likes snow and wants a foot of it. His liking snow/wanting it has absolutely no effect on what will happen. How is that not comprehensible? And if it is comprehensible, then you should agree that HIS HOPES/OPINIONS DO NOT MATTER. Which leads to the logcial conclusion of: Who cares? Why get so worked up about some guy wanting snow when you know it has zero effect on anyone? It's someone's thoughts/feelings. If you worried about everyone's thoughts/feelings you'd be alot more upset at some other folks than those whose sinister thoughts are limited to "rooting for more snow." This board is certified bonkers. That is all.

 

[Jjnik]

Agreed. On AmericanWx, they'd "5-post" people or tell them to take it to the "banter" thread, so the actual discussion thread doesn't get cluttered up. But hey, if people want to argue, let 'em argue, I guess.

Anyway, it's been posted a couple of times, but you may have missed it. Here's the NWS map for snowfall. For where you are (Cherry Hill, iirc; I grew up near there), expect a minimum of 10" even if this is a bust with only 1-2" in NYC and 2-4" in NB/Somerville/most of CNJ and expect 14-20" if the forecasts are correct. There's upside for up to 24" there.

Right - but how is this for covering their butts when things go south (or North - literally)?

 

[bac2therac]

All important euro running..this run could hone in on forecast confidence with amounts

 

[RU848789]

If CJ only gets 3 inches or less thia storm is a clear bust

Agreed, <3" would be a bust for anywhere within a few miles of 78. I'd even say <5" is a bust for a line from Perth Amboy to New Hope and I-78) and <10" is a bust for anywhere within 5-10 miles of 195, especially from Freehold to the shore.

 

[RUJohnny99]

With all respect to those commenting on the issue, I really wish people here would stick to the question of how much snow there will be and when, rather than go back and forth on whether RU#s is the Devil Incarnate for liking snow. I continue, btw, to urge the various weather forecasters here to mention what will happen south of Trenton; I've heard that the NWS is estimating 17 inches for the South Jersey suburbs of Philadelphia.

Agreed. On AmericanWx, they'd "5-post" people or tell them to take it to the "banter" thread, so the actual discussion thread doesn't get cluttered up. But hey, if people want to argue, let 'em argue, I guess.

And if this board was run like the WEATHER message board, this thread would be moved to the OFF TOPIC board because it has nothing to do with FOOTBALL.

 

[bac2therac]

I just wanted to try the multi-quote feature. No better example than these 2 posts.

Sorry but if it busts here its also busting to the north so imby doesnt apply here

 

[RU5781]

All important euro running..this run could hone in on forecast confidence with amounts

Come on Euro...minimal snow.

 

[RocktheRac]

Canadian was more like 8-14", but Euro was only 4-8" for most of Central Jersey into NYC, which was disappointing after showing much more earlier today. So, maybe 6-12" is a decent guess at this point, with the 6" or less north of 78 and the 12" amounts as one nears 195. Really tough to tell what's going to happen with this kind of model variability.

What I meant was that ok the Euro showed 4 to 8 after showing more earlier. Thanks more than enough for one storm. I know you are disappointed it wasn't showing 3 feet of snow. It's like me wishing that I can see a major Hurricane come up the coast. Me wishing it to see it won't make it happen but it's like bad karma. You know bad stuff is gonna happen if we get 3 ft of snow.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I think it's really important that the title of this thread be changed to "this weekend" instead of "next weekend". I'm really hung up on this.

I edited the thread title to indicate the date range of the storm.

 

[RU848789]

UKMET has 8-12" for NYC and 10-15" for most of Central Jersey, while Euro mostly holds course (maybe a tad more snow than 0Z) and has maybe 8-12" for CNJ and 6-10" for NYC. Blended average of all the models would likely have 6-12" in NYC and close by burbs and 8-14" in CNJ between 78 and 195 (8" by 78 and 14" by 195). Substantial snow, but not historic, although 50% less and 50% more than what I just said is still in play. On to the next suite of models near midnight, lol.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Have fun! Call us from the tow truck!

Not with an AWD Acadia or Tahoe. We can drive through anything and have done many times. Snow isn't a big deal.

 

[RU5781]

Not with an AWD Acadia or Tahoe. We can drive through anything and have done many times. Snow isn't a big deal.

My Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Sport laughs at snow. I don't even have to shovel. Just hit the gas, and I'm off.

 

[Block R]

All important euro running..this run could hone in on forecast confidence with amounts

Everyone keeps saying things like 'next model will determine...' or 'this next run is the important one', yet there is still so much uncertainty due to the really tight gradient lack of consensus among the various models. My *bold* prediction is this will continue right up until the storm starts and we're all nowcasting. RU4Real nailed it with this storm (punctuated with the "It gon' snow" graphic): everyone has been warned a major storm is forming along the East coast, NJ will be impacted significantly on Sat and you'll know by Sun how much snow you got in your backyard.

 

[jerzey devil]

My Jeep Wrangler Unlimited Sport laughs at snow. I don't even have to shovel. Just hit the gas, and I'm off.

Not with an AWD Acadia or Tahoe. We can drive through anything and have done many times. Snow isn't a big deal.

got news for you 2 geniuses.. most vehicles can drive thru snow.. its stopping suddenly that sorta causes the problems

 

[Kbee3]

Not with an AWD Acadia or Tahoe. We can drive through anything and have done many times. Snow isn't a big deal.

Dude, it's not your car or how good you are at handling it. It's the mamaluke in the next lane that doesn't comprehend how to drive in snow and ice that'll get you.
But that's O.K. RU848789 will get to build a snowman....so it's all good.

 

[RUScrew85]

got news for you 2 geniuses.. most vehicles can drive thru snow.. its stopping suddenly that sorta causes the problems

My Raptor drives over buildings and stops in mid-air. I'll be out driving for fun with the windows down Saturday.

 

[RU5781]

got news for you 2 geniuses.. most vehicles can drive thru snow.. its stopping suddenly that sorta causes the problems

Yeah, you know nothing of Wranglers...

 

[RU4Real]

 

[brista21]

The weenies on AmericanWX are starting meltdown a bit. The look just like what happened during last year's NJ blizzard that wasn't.