OT: Cold and Potentially Stormy (Snowy?) Pattern for 2nd half of January
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
I've enjoyed reading the first 3 pages of this thread and look forward to the next 7. Trollers and non-trollers unite for my personal entertainment. Thank you.
I guess it depends on the town. My old house we could do up to 8X10 - no permit, no tax.
You truly don't understand simple math. We're talking about snow per unit time. For NB, the average is about 25.8" per season and 7.1" per the month of January (and varying amounts for other months), so if we're only talking about half of January, which is the premise here, then one would expect to get about 3.55" of snow over that half of January (and I proposed 5" being " significantly above normal for half of January"). So if a foot falls in the last half of January, that's the same amount per unit time as 2 feet over a whole month. It's pretty simple stuff. It doesn't matter whether it's one storm or three 4" storms - same amount either way.
Are you seriously not considering the fact that you and T trolled the thread in posts 2 and 3 in this thread, immediately after the RU848789 bat signal went up amongst your little clique? The thread would be about 10 posts long if you guys didn't troll it, causing people to respond and so on. At least own it.
You're missing the difference between a specific forecast for an event more than a week away, which is largely futile, given chaos theory and the accumulating uncertainty in numerical models as one goes further out in time, vs. a general trend forecast for temp and/or precip in a longer range time period (in this case roughly days 7-23 from the time the trend forecast was made. A trend forecast doesn't say anything at all about what is going to occur on any specific day, but uses teleconnection indices to predict the general trends for that period of time. They're completely different.
And last year's two trend discussions worked out great. Posted about a colder/snowier than normal period from about 2/4 through 2/18 and we got about 14" of snow in NB during that time, which is way more than the monthly average of 8.3". I then posted in late Feb that the pattern was looking warmer than normal with below normal snow likely and we got 0.0" of snow in March. Oh yeah, I also started a thread 5 days before the 2/1 mega snowstorm which put down 12-24" across the region and endured 1-2 days of grief from the usual suspects who said it was too early to post about such a storm and that a big snowstorm was unlikely. Was a good year - the year before was not, but it happens.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...-chances-than-usual-warm-up-wk-of-3-8.211160/
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ikely-for-late-sun-1-31-into-tues-2-2.210782/
Back to the weather. Pattern still looks cold and potentially wintry from now through the end of January with the initial focus on a potential winter storm on Sunday night into Monday, which is 5-6 days out. Models are definitely not in sync at all with a wide variety of solutions, including the GFS and Euro showing a major winter storm hugging the coast or just inland and bringing heavy snow to areas a bit inland of 95 and a bit of snow to mostly rain for the big cities.Haven't done a pattern thread in awhile, but things are aligning pretty well from a teleconnections perspective to establish a colder and possibly stormier than normal pattern for the 2nd half of January and whenever that kind of pattern forms, there is a greater probability of above average snowfall. Have done a bunch of these threads over the years and more often than not they have delivered on increased snowfall for our area (but definitely not every time). As always, I'm not a meteorologist, but when quite a few mets are predicting such a pattern, it's worth paying attention to.
With regard to what the thinking is behind this, there are links to a post by an excellent young met on AmericanWx (brooklynwx99) and a video by WxRisk (DT), below. Essentially, the medium range models are showing a robust ridge forming in the PacNW, coupled with an Aleution upper level low, forcing the polar jet stream up and over that ridge and then spilling SE as a trough drawing cold air from Canada (via Siberia) into the eastern half of the US and then sometimes heading NE driving potential storms towards our area. In the GIF below, from brooklynwx99, you can see the persistent ridge at 500 mbar (mid-level of the atmosphere) near Alaska (in orange) and the persistent resulting trough in the eastern US (in blue).
From a global perspective, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), a measure of equatorial convection from the Indian Ocean through the Pacific, is what is fueling this jet stream combination above, as the MJO enters phases 8 and then 1. In turn, the "teleconnections" that are favorable for cold/snow in the eastern US are a -NAO, a -AO, a -EPO and a +PNA, all of which are predicted to occur starting by mid-January and lasting through the end of the month (at least). The video, in particular, describes the MJO and the teleconnections in much better detail with excellent graphics, so I won't bother to try to provide more detail here, as I can't do it better than WxRisk did anyway.
In addition, there will likely be a "split flow" with the subropical jet stream being active in sending moisture from the Pacific across the southern US, leading to potential "phasing" of the two jet streams, which is often a key ingredient in major east coast snowstorms - the AmericanWx post describes this in very nice detail with graphics.
The first chance for a signficant storm is about a week from now, with the various global models all showing a winter storm of some sort next Sunday, but differing greatly in the details, such that anything from nada to a significant winter storm is possible. And there are additional signals after that for significant winter storms. Way, way, way too early to predict anything specific for any location, but this is the kind of pattern that needs to be watched closely. So, let's see what happens.
I know some will say, big deal, it usually snows in January, which is true, but this is about potentially getting more snow than usual and a greater probability of a significant snowstorm or two. All through December the pattern was warm and hostile for cold/snow in the eastern US, as we had a persistent ridge in the SE US pumping warm air into our area, so we got no snow at all. This pattern starting changing in early January a bit, but was still not particularly favorable for cold and/or snow and we got nothing until Friday for most of us, while the big storm for VA/DE/MD and SENJ on Monday just shows that it's always possible to get snow in a bad to neutral pattern in winter.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/204...n-winter-21-22/?do=findComment&comment=299689
However, the model uncertainty this far out is quite high, so the important thing we're seeing is the depiction of a potentially significant winter storm, such that snows for the 95 corridor are certainly still possible. In fact, the ensemble mean track is further offshore and snowier for the 95 corridor/coast and ensembles are often used by more pros at this point than any individual operational model. Still too early for a thread, IMO, but if we start to see some model alignment in the next day or so, a thread would make sense. Here's what the NWS-NYC had to say a few minutes ago...
Also, no matter what, we're going to have an astronomical high tide on Monday, so if we do get a strong coastal storm, coastal erosion and flooding could become an issue.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EST Tue Jan 11 2022
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Meanwhile, another shortwave moves onshore along the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday before digging south across the Central
US this weekend. In collaboration with neighbors, nudged PoPs
up a bit over NBM Sunday night and Monday as 12z guidance has
come into better agreement this cycle that a surface low
develops over the Southeast this weekend before moving north and
east. Global ensemble means track the low near the 40/70
benchmark early Monday, which would help keep the region cold
enough for all snow. However, with uncertainty as to the exact
strength and position of the low, the finer details will still
need to be resolved. Given a bit better consistency/convergence
with models and their respective ensembles systems, the
potential exists for a storm system to impact the region late
this weekend into early next week.
If we can get everyone in this board to go out and buy a Ford Raptor we might be able to put a stop to this snow nonsense.
Social media lighting up about possible measurable / potentially big snowstorm Sunday night into Monday. Even TV Mets chatting about it with the “way too early” comments etc.
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A major winter storm is now very likely for the NE US and parts of the SE and Mid-Atlantic, too. For our area, if the track is inland or just on the coast, there would be some snow to start for the 95 corridor, but mostly rain, with heavy snows 30-50 miles inland of 95. If the track is a bit offshore, everyone gets a major snowstorm (major to me is 8" or more and >12" is on the table) and if the track is well offshore it could be several inches of snow for 95 towards the coast with less inland.
Right now 3 of the 4 global models have a coastal hugger to a bit inland with mostly rain for 95 and some heavy snow inland, while one has a major snowstorm for our entire area, so a wetter solution for the 95 corridor looks just a bit more likely. Still 5 days out and track errors at this point are still at least 200 miles, so everything except a complete rainstorm and a complete miss are very much in play (and even a rainstorm and a miss are not totally out of the question, but are far less likely). Also, right now most of the models have heavy snows down into GA/SC/NC/VA/MD (away from the coast).
Time for a thread, I think, as we're about 5 days from the start of the event late Sunday night.
Thank you #’s. Screw the trolls!Haven't done a pattern thread in awhile, but things are aligning pretty well from a teleconnections perspective to establish a colder and possibly stormier than normal pattern for the 2nd half of January and whenever that kind of pattern forms, there is a greater probability of above average snowfall. Have done a bunch of these threads over the years and more often than not they have delivered on increased snowfall for our area (but definitely not every time). As always, I'm not a meteorologist, but when quite a few mets are predicting such a pattern, it's worth paying attention to.
With regard to what the thinking is behind this, there are links to a post by an excellent young met on AmericanWx (brooklynwx99) and a video by WxRisk (DT), below. Essentially, the medium range models are showing a robust ridge forming in the PacNW, coupled with an Aleution upper level low, forcing the polar jet stream up and over that ridge and then spilling SE as a trough drawing cold air from Canada (via Siberia) into the eastern half of the US and then sometimes heading NE driving potential storms towards our area. In the GIF below, from brooklynwx99, you can see the persistent ridge at 500 mbar (mid-level of the atmosphere) near Alaska (in orange) and the persistent resulting trough in the eastern US (in blue).
From a global perspective, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), a measure of equatorial convection from the Indian Ocean through the Pacific, is what is fueling this jet stream combination above, as the MJO enters phases 8 and then 1. In turn, the "teleconnections" that are favorable for cold/snow in the eastern US are a -NAO, a -AO, a -EPO and a +PNA, all of which are predicted to occur starting by mid-January and lasting through the end of the month (at least). The video, in particular, describes the MJO and the teleconnections in much better detail with excellent graphics, so I won't bother to try to provide more detail here, as I can't do it better than WxRisk did anyway.
In addition, there will likely be a "split flow" with the subropical jet stream being active in sending moisture from the Pacific across the southern US, leading to potential "phasing" of the two jet streams, which is often a key ingredient in major east coast snowstorms - the AmericanWx post describes this in very nice detail with graphics.
The first chance for a signficant storm is about a week from now, with the various global models all showing a winter storm of some sort next Sunday, but differing greatly in the details, such that anything from nada to a significant winter storm is possible. And there are additional signals after that for significant winter storms. Way, way, way too early to predict anything specific for any location, but this is the kind of pattern that needs to be watched closely. So, let's see what happens.
I know some will say, big deal, it usually snows in January, which is true, but this is about potentially getting more snow than usual and a greater probability of a significant snowstorm or two. All through December the pattern was warm and hostile for cold/snow in the eastern US, as we had a persistent ridge in the SE US pumping warm air into our area, so we got no snow at all. This pattern starting changing in early January a bit, but was still not particularly favorable for cold and/or snow and we got nothing until Friday for most of us, while the big storm for VA/DE/MD and SENJ on Monday just shows that it's always possible to get snow in a bad to neutral pattern in winter.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/204...n-winter-21-22/?do=findComment&comment=299689
Thank him for the event thread as those are very important and appreciated...
OT: Winter Storm Likely to Impact Our Area 1/16-17
As we've been discussing in the pattern thread, the first threat of the ongoing cold and potentially snowy pattern likely through the end of January, is now about 5 days away. Specifically, a major winter storm is now very likely for the NE US and parts of the SE US and Mid-Atlantic, too. For...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
They are not going to like it any more on there! Although they seem to be depressed about this storm already.
Is there a reason why 33&R doesn't have the traditional "model discussions" where everybody posts the graphics from every single model run and discusses them ad nauseum? Those were the only threads I really liked.
He wasn't banned for weather posts this time - he was banned for posts in a C**** thread, which shouldn't surprise anyone. Cold rain is certainly possible, although focusing on rainy solutions won't make posters popular over there, but as long as such posts are made with some meteorological reasoning (easy to do for this storm where rain is very possible), they won't get posters banned on either weather board. But he's been banned before from both sites (at least thread-banned) for trolling people in winter storm threads, like he does here at times. And T would be banned immediately on those boards.
Imagine a covid thread there where you can only post one line of thinking and lock step in fear mongering...free speech lol. And i have receipts so you might not want to bring up our spat over there up
Anyway i see the Americanwx board allows Covid discussions in a rational way so ill try there
they usually do, especially if it shows a storm. If the models don’t go the way they want, they usually just ignore
I think they dont like to do it before 72 hours out. The other board has a thread with some model outputs. This one really seems to run west
They have a thread for long range threats and when a threat becomes closer in time, they start a single thread for that threat, like they did yesterday for this threat. And everything goes in that thread, regardless of where one is from, as opposed to AmericanWx, where they have geographically based subforums, which have single threads for specific threats before the event starts and then single threads for observations once an event starts. Plenty of model discussions and maps within the event threads on each site, but they do kind of discourage posting snowfall maps without some discussion of what led to that outcome.
You're possibly thinking about the old AccuWeather forum which had whole threads devoted to model suites, but that forum closed up shop in Dec 2018, which partly led to the creation of 33andrain a year earlier, as supposedly the folks who started that forum knew what was coming (plus there was some infighting with how AmericanWx was being run).
yes, they started it yesterday evening around 9 pm...linked it in my event thread here...
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2076-116-17-high-impact-winter-weather-event/
Well, if that's what floats your boat, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Been trying to find out the probability for this for Virginia: Tyler's been texting me from Charlottesville asking me about it. I don't know why he's worried, his college is virtual for the first 2 weeks of the semester. Of course they're nuts when these storms approach: he got down there last Thursday from here and the stores were picked clean of essentials even though the forecast was only for 1-2".
For 33andrain, it's more based on likelihood of impacting the NE US, IMO (they want to be "national" but the vast majority of their posters are in the NE). They didn't start the 1/3 coastal event until about 36 hours before the event, when it became apparent that DC to AC were likely getting snow and they started the 1/7 thread about 3 days before the event when models came into some agreement on a winter storm. For the coming event they started the thread about 5 days in advance since the models are pretty much all in agreement on a significant winter storm, even if the outcomes are all over the place.
For AmericanWx, particularly the NYC metro (which includes NNJ/CNJ) subforum, they start event threads much earlier, especially since Walt Drag, one of the best known/respected NWS pros (recently retired from the Philly office) usually starts the event threads - and who's going to argue with him, lol.
Charlottesville is likely in the bullseye for heavy snow (a foot is very possible) regardless of an inland or coastal track.
That's when I start lol - probably why I'm sometimes the only one posting there after 1 am...
