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OT: Cold and Potentially Stormy (Snowy?) Pattern for 2nd half of January

To each his own I guess. Trend stuff to me is quite interesting. Now, that is coming from someone very interested in the weather, and I suppose would be less interesting to those not interested, but I just don't see the harm in posting the information especially since #'s labeled it as an off topic thread.

It's clear that certain people want to eviscerate #'s every chance they get but I would appreciate they keep that animosity to themselves. I mean, Bac, who pummels #'s continually, opens threads throughout the year related to favorite Thanksgiving food, favorite Christmas song etc.....................of which I like those threads...................So, is an informative weather thread about how teleconnections and their current stages have a potentially significant impact on winter weather in the next few weeks really worse? I mean, #'s is posting scientific information about the weather and Bac is asking "what do you like better at Thanksgiving, stuffing or mashed potatoes?" I mean, is he serious? He has the balls to rip #'s about what I view as a relevant weather thread but starts those threads? Actually as I type this i'm realizing how hypocritical it sounds. And again Bac..............I like your threads.
But, but you didn't say what your favorite Halloween candy was this past year. I know you might have answered it the last 7 years but sometimes tastes change. You might be a bit-o-honey guy now.
 
I'm interested to see if this will be a nothingburger, a clearly below normal temperature and/or above normal snowfall period, or if we (at least here in Hamilton/Trenton) get a period of the dreaded 33 and rain, sleet, and freezing rain. SST anomalies are decidedly above normal along the eastern seaboard, while they appear to be below normal off southern Alaska (no Blob 3.0)

Me too, obviously. I tend to only start pattern threads when several pros I respect are on board, and about 8 of 12 colder/snowier have verified over the years, which is way better than the general 1 in 9 one might expect (2 variables, 3 levels (below normal, normal and above normal - which is why my top quartile comment above is actually quite aggressive, since "above normal" would normally be in the top third of all seasons) for each variable, leads to 9 possible outcomes) for any single prediction made at random. As bac has ranted many times (and I've somewhat agreed), on 33andrain you'll often see people saying they see a cold and snowy pattern coming many times per winter, which is simply not going to happen. Anyway, it's at least fun for me to see how these pattern predictions do.
 
A foot in half a month is equivalent to 24" for a full month, which would translate to the 5th snowiest January in 116 years of records in NB - don't you think that bar is a little too high for "snowier than normal?" It's why I picked being in the top 25% of Januarys (or 5.0" in half a month), which seems more reasonable.

Of course models are all over the place 6-7 days out - that's why I wouldn't normally start an event thread until at most 4-5 days out and sometimes later, like with Friday's storm, which I didn't start a thread on until we were a little less than 3 days out, as the models were all over the place before then.


Lol one storm that gives a foot is one storm that gives a foot..its not 2 feet in a month...you dont even make sense. One storm can skew everything. It just means we hot hit with a big storm. Clock is ticking..tick tock tick tock
 
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The fact is this would be about 5 posts if Numbers minions didn't rush into defend his honor..like clockwork
That fact that #'s is so against forecast past a week but calling it a "trend" makes it work for him. Last year's trend thread didn't work out either.
 
exactly, dont know why peeps think that reaction here is going to be the same as a weather board where they covet and want two foot storms every time

I mean I get the OT posts. I fully understand our weather guys starting a thread about a big storm coming up. I even understand "maybe a big storm" - but treating 2 inch storms like they're a blizzard deserves some fun poked at it.
 
I mean I get the OT posts. I fully understand our weather guys starting a thread about a big storm coming up. I even understand "maybe a big storm" - but treating 2 inch storms like they're a blizzard deserves some fun poked at it.

You seem very focused on 2 inches. Why is that? How does that make you feel? Does the additional reference to "poking" represent some sort of connection?
 
The fact is this would be about 5 posts if Numbers minions didn't rush into defend his honor..like clockwork
Not a minion. Have no opinion of the guy.

And generally enjoy your posts

I don’t usually participate in the bickering that occurs on this board

just calling it as it is

your trolling of #s is boring and lame

it’s been going on for years and this is the first time I’ve called you out on it (again I usually don’t participate)

it needed to end years ago
 
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well at least we are keeping it classy
Well first off I know this clown under a different name. He has issues. And read his post before mine. Certainly not classy but you think my post is bad. This clown has, under a previous name, threatening people but is too afraid to follow through. A famous troll.
 
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