OT: Cold pattern to continue thru mid/late-Feb with greater snow chances than usual; Warm-up wk of 3/8

RU848789

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This is going to be great for the ice dam on my garage.
Last night, while playing poker, I heard a drip-drip-drip start around 11 pm. I let it collect in a bowl until poker was over and then figured out it was likely just blockage at the gutter, since the water was coming in from the bay window just underneath the gutter. This is a low-pitch part of our roof, over our family room (maybe only a 20 degree angle pitch), which leaked before after big snowstorms, but usually at the seam with the rest of the house, which I could see from the attic - was hoping the re-roofing we did a few years ago would've stopped that and I think it did.

I assumed it was the gutter remaining frozen, since it's not over the warmer house, blocking the water which was likely melting further up on the roof (under the 18" of snow we still have on that part of the roof - in shade mostly) from the warmth of the house, and leading to that water finding a path through the shingles to the bay window. So, I then had my son shovel the roof to remove the source of the water (I've done that in all our other big snows - when he was a kid we'd then both repeatedly jump off the roof into the 5-6 feet of snow below that I had shoveled) and the leak stopped within an hour or two.
 
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RU848789

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For those of you looking for this pattern to break, that might well just happen by early next week, as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is forecast to go positive for the first time since late Dec and that usually means warmer temperatures in the NE US, as a +AO typically means the very cold air up north gets trapped up above 55N, roughly. Really good post on the pattern change from donsutherland at the link below on 33andrain. He also has a ton of info on the record cold hitting the Plains and SE over the next few days, as well as the crazy snows in Dallas/Houston and the freezing rain east of there.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/195...vers-evolution/?do=findComment&comment=277851

The Climate Prediction Center certainly thinks that's likely, as per the map below for a bit above normal temps for the NE US from 2/22-2/28. The question then becomes whether that patter stays in place or we see a return to the current "blocking" pattern with plenty of cold air and chances for wintry precip - longer range models are not in agreement on this. Until then, we still have potential wintry events on 2/16 (thread on that), 2/18 (probably some snow to rain for most), and 2/22 (possibly wintry).

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/

xLV5jXL.png
 

WhiteBus

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For those of you looking for this pattern to break, that might well just happen by early next week, as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is forecast to go positive for the first time since late Dec and that usually means warmer temperatures in the NE US, as a +AO typically means the very cold air up north gets trapped up above 55N, roughly. Really good post on the pattern change from donsutherland at the link below on 33andrain. He also has a ton of info on the record cold hitting the Plains and SE over the next few days, as well as the crazy snows in Dallas/Houston and the freezing rain east of there.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/195...vers-evolution/?do=findComment&comment=277851

The Climate Prediction Center certainly thinks that's likely, as per the map below for a bit above normal temps for the NE US from 2/22-2/28. The question then becomes whether that patter stays in place or we see a return to the current "blocking" pattern with plenty of cold air and chances for wintry precip - longer range models are not in agreement on this. Until then, we still have potential wintry events on 2/16 (thread on that), 2/18 (probably some snow to rain for most), and 2/22 (possibly wintry).

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/

xLV5jXL.png
A little late to the party. Local channels have said this for days
 

MulletCork

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For those of you looking for this pattern to break, that might well just happen by early next week, as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is forecast to go positive for the first time since late Dec and that usually means warmer temperatures in the NE US, as a +AO typically means the very cold air up north gets trapped up above 55N, roughly. Really good post on the pattern change from donsutherland at the link below on 33andrain. He also has a ton of info on the record cold hitting the Plains and SE over the next few days, as well as the crazy snows in Dallas/Houston and the freezing rain east of there.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/195...vers-evolution/?do=findComment&comment=277851

The Climate Prediction Center certainly thinks that's likely, as per the map below for a bit above normal temps for the NE US from 2/22-2/28. The question then becomes whether that patter stays in place or we see a return to the current "blocking" pattern with plenty of cold air and chances for wintry precip - longer range models are not in agreement on this. Until then, we still have potential wintry events on 2/16 (thread on that), 2/18 (probably some snow to rain for most), and 2/22 (possibly wintry).

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/

xLV5jXL.png
Interesting stuff and well appreciated. Thanks for that information.
 
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RU848789

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Hey @Southern Gentleman - looks like 4-8" for you guys (I'm assuming you're in the Little Rock area) from today's storm, but it looks like you could get another 8-12" on Wednesday with those record cold temps. Almost unheard of snow and cold for the Southern Plains.
 

RU848789

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The calamity in the southern Plains and the western SE US (TX, OK, AK, MS, LA, TN especially) is almost unimaginable in modern day society. Many of these places have been under 32F for 8 days already with 1-2 more to go (records for most), including many all-time below 0F cold temps, and have gotten 10-20” of snow/sleet (even a few inches down to Gulf Coast in Galveston), with some getting catastrophic levels of freezing rain, and 6MM+ are without power with many of these same folks without gas and water too. It’s like going back to the Stone Age for these folks. At least after a hurricane, down south, it’s usually warm, so even if you lose all those things you won’t die from the cold. Crazy. 16 dead already and that’s likely to go up a fair amount. Snow can be fun. This is not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/17/winter-storm-weather-texas-live/
 

RU848789

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This should make a few of you happy, as the cold/snowy pattern will break after this weekend with normal to maybe above normal temps the next 10-14 days and likely not much snow. However, there are indications that the "blocking" pattern could return in early March, perhaps allowing March to be be relatively cold and snowy. We'll see.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

After a relentless 3 week stretch of winter weather, a progressive
and comparatively much quieter weather pattern develops over the
East for the weekend and into next week. The AO turns positive for
the first time since November, which combined with a trends towards
a negative PNA signifies less active weather ahead. Zonal, low
amplitude flow dominates the CONUS following the departure of the
late week storm system. An orderly progression of weather systems
will result, with high pressure building in for the weekend, a fast
moving frontal system early next week, then additional high pressure
towards mid to late week. After a cold weekend, there will be a
gradual warming trend into next week, but we only rise towards
seasonal averages by the middle of next week. So while a less wintry
pattern in the sense of less frequent snow and ice threats, it will
still not be a warm one. The only notable system of the week comes
on Monday, which looks fairly minor but will likely bring a period
of rain or snow.
 

RU848789

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Well, that was an incredible month for snow lovers, as most in CNJ/NNJ/EPA/NYC Metro got over 20" of snow from late Jan through 2/22 and many got over 30". We got ~34" in Metuchen during that time and have 43.5" for the winter, which is well above the NB average of about 27" for a winter and temps were well below normal. Pattern delivered.

However, after a week or so of normal temps and no snow things look a bit up and down the rest of this week, but it looks like we'll get an early taste of spring by mid-next week with temps likely reaching the low 60s for most for at least a few days. Doesn't mean winter is over, as March averages about 5-6" of snow, but that snow is much more likely in the first 10 days of the month and that's not looking likely right now. There are some indications of a return to a colder pattern after next week though, but that's iffy...

F67vjgf.png
 
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bac2therac

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also get ready for a hot summer...one of those 11 year cycles....77, 88, 99, 10, and now 2021...like clockwork it happens
 

Night Man

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also get ready for a hot summer...one of those 11 year cycles....77, 88, 99, 10, and now 2021...like clockwork it happens
I remember '10 being a very temperate summer. '11 was the surface of the sun.
 

Scarlet dollar

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I have pictures on Facebook from March 15th last year. Daffodils were all up, and cherry trees were blossomed. Not going to happen this year.
 

knightfan7

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we have had cold Marchs and April for a while now. We are due for a warm start to spring. I still remember March 2012..incredibly warm, we had 70s and 80s as earlier as March 11 I think

I believe you're correct about March 2019.

Last March had a number of warm days here....

2nd....62
9th....73
10th...67
13th...71
20th...80
21st...69
27th...68

Hope we get a few of those soon. The warmest day so far in 2021 was 57 on Feb 27.
 

Ronnie_B

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Highs forecasted in mid 60s next week means 70 for some..those days usually overperform away from the coast
Sayreville-Old Bridge overperform all it time it seems, always noticed that, rarely it's cooler than projected.
 

WhiteBus

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Absolutely. I still started my annual shorts only after Apr 30th pledge but it was chilly.
Once I change over to shorts in April there is no going back. All my non work jeans get washed/dry/folded and put away until the fall. Last year there were days I regretted my early April decision. 😆
 

rurichdog

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60's will help melt the last few piles of snow and get soil temps up. They're hovering around 35 right now in Hamilton. Nowhere near ready to throw down pre-emergents.
 

RU848789

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60's will help melt the last few piles of snow and get soil temps up. They're hovering around 35 right now in Hamilton. Nowhere near ready to throw down pre-emergents.
Most snow in open areas with full sun are melted in Metuchen. We're lucky enough to have a very shady property and still have 3-5" of very dense snow/ice on over 80% of our property (and 100% of the front yard). I'm sure many are jealous.
 

knightfan7

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Most snow in open areas with full sun are melted in Metuchen. We're lucky enough to have a very shady property and still have 3-5" of very dense snow/ice on over 80% of our property (and 100% of the front yard). I'm sure many are jealous.

Hey #s, it's snowing down here. Hop in the car and hustle down lol.
 
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jtung230

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Putting the fuel stabilizer in the snow blower and putting it in storage. You guys know who to blame for the next March blizzard.
 

RU848789

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70 on Thursday
It's gorgeous out there now - 65F right now, several above the forecast. Wife and I just picked up pizza and ate it in Roosevelt Park and took a nice walk around. I'm about to go play a round of disc golf at RU and will likely play again with some friends on Thursday. I love snow, but I love every season really, especially Spring.
 

Ronnie_B

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It's gorgeous out there now - 65F right now, several above the forecast. Wife and I just picked up pizza and ate it in Roosevelt Park and took a nice walk around. I'm about to go play a round of disc golf at RU and will likely play again with some friends on Thursday. I love snow, but I love every season really, especially Spring.
The payoff to a rough winter is the warmth of spring, there is really nothing that compares and it's something more of the southern part of our country never experiences.
 

red sail

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64 degrees today and 70 on Thursday!!! Let this snow melt so we can get back outside to play some Golf again!
 
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