OT: Hurricane Ian to Bring Major to Catastrophic Impacts to Cuba/Florida (and 2022 Tropical Weather Thread):
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I have a friend that just moved to Florida a little over a month ago. Evidently there is a 30 day waiting period for your home owners insurance to take effect (not sure if that’s just the storm related portions). His policy became active 4 days ago. Cutting it a little close.
I'm not looking to argue. Just sharing reality. We have 4-6 ft storm surges in the area. St. Augustine is flooded downtown with a 9 ft elevation. Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra are bone dry even in the lowest of areas.
This all rose out of a question on flood insurance and the damages done by wind vs flood. Your animations would imply flood is the issue when in reality it is quite the opposite. Flood damage from storm surge does not occur like annimated.
Below is the picture of Hurricane Matthew storm surge higher than my elevation breaching the dunes a mere 100 yds away. We didn't get a drop of water. Maybe because the winds were coming from the west at this time and pushing the water out of the intracoastal and St, Johns River allowing this water to drain into the much lower intracoastal..
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Only need flood insurance if you are in a flood zone. Majority of homeowners do not need it.
As an FYI - none of these homes will collect a penny from flood insurance. Its all likely viewed as wind damage.Fort Meyers
Only way to collect from flood insurance is if there is no damage to the structure and water intruded from the ground up.
I think the insurance companies will find it politically untenable not to pay out.
Not at all. If you have damage to the structure, then it is wind damage that likely covers. I'm just sharing because so many people are confused about flood insurance and the government subsidy.
They might be going back, there’s a lot of work to be done down there for at least 10 years.
Storm surge? A wall of water could have dealt the fatal "blow." Regardless, have to think those homes had Federal Flood Insurance, although I believe there is a cap on the coverage, likely less than the value of the structure/s.
A DeSantis quote from another articleI was curious about what DeSantis actually said when he voted against Sandy Aid in 2013. This was the most I could find. I am interested to understand the fuller context on his big switch from against disaster aid to now for disaster aid.
Ron DeSantis voted against Hurricane Sandy aid. How will he vote next week?
The Sandy aid bill, providing $9.7B in aid, otherwise passed unanimously through the Senate.floridapolitics.com
The problem with the Sandy package was, if you look at it, only 30 percent of it was going to be spent in the first two years," DeSantis said in an interview recently at his St. Augustine office. "It actually appropriated money out to 2020 and 2021, things that could not in any way be said to be emergency spending. It just was so much extraneous stuff."
Would he vote against disaster relief if a hurricane hit his district?
"If a hurricane came here, I would want any relief plan to be fiscally responsible," he said. " would not want to add extra things and say that because this is a vehicle that's moving, let's try to Christmas tree it out."
My friend Bob lives in Veronawalk. He said there’s no flooding and no wind damage to the units. He did say that there are down palm trees and he has no power.
Thanks.
I swear that lifestyle and that location helped my Dad make it to 92 and Mom is still kicking at 89.
These guys are hero’s. That water was high and moving.
So you’re saying there should be a thread just for this particular event. Great idea.👍
One small problem, Professor. According to boots on the ground reports, that predicted catastrophic flooding in the Naples area didn't pan out that way. And according to the topographic map posted in the same post, you'd need 30+ feet of storm surge to flood hakfway to Lake Okeechobee as predicted...
I think you're just using flawed logic to explain your observations. I don't doubt at all that Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra experience very little flooding from4-6 feet of storm surge, because they're not narrow barrier islands and the elevations for both areas go from essentially 0 ft at the ocean to 10 feet or more within about a block of the beach, presumably due to dunes and the natural elevation, since a few blocks inland from the ocean both areas are 15+ feet, so there's no reason those locations would ever flood from a 4-6 foot surge above normal high tide level. Also, the intracoastal is 1-2 miles inland of those locations and that intracoastal is also at 0 feet elevation (same as the ocean as they're closely connected) and if there's 4-6 feet of surge that goes into that intracoastal (and the St. John's River nearby), that's also not going to flood Jacksonville Beach or Ponte Vedra from the backside, since the elevation from the intracoastal also goes up quite quickly to 10'+ a few blocks towards those locations.I'm not looking to argue. Just sharing reality. We have 4-6 ft storm surges in the area. St. Augustine is flooded downtown with a 9 ft elevation. Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra are bone dry even in the lowest of areas.
This all rose out of a question on flood insurance and the damages done by wind vs flood. Your animations would imply flood is the issue when in reality it is quite the opposite. Flood damage from storm surge does not occur like annimated.
Below is the picture of Hurricane Matthew storm surge higher than my elevation breaching the dunes a mere 100 yds away. We didn't get a drop of water. Maybe because the winds were coming from the west at this time and pushing the water out of the intracoastal and St, Johns River allowing this water to drain into the much lower intracoastal..
With regard to St. Augustine, your comment that a location that is at 9 feet of elevation floods from 4-6 foot surge simply makes no sense, as that can't be enough to flood an area that high in elevation. Also, just cruising around on the USGS elevation site, it looks like almost all of downtown St. Augustine is above 10 feet, except right at the very edges by the ocean and the intracoastal, so I would think a 4-6 foot surge wouldn't result in much flooding beyond the immediate coast. This is in contrast to what we just saw throughout SW FL, where the various barrier islands and decent sections of inland residential areas along inlets and estuaries are mostly <10 feet - and those areas likely experienced 10-20 feet of storm surge, given how much flooding was observed.
https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/c3a/Fort-Myers/
At this point we don't have great measurements of the surge yet, but I did come across a report of 18 feet of storm surge in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, which means that was likely the amount throughout that area, probably including Captiva, Sanibel, Ft. Myers Beach, etc (which probably were even a bit higher, as they're closer to the ocean - yes, there is some gradient moving from the ocean to inland even in water, just like there is in a river - that gradient is needed to overcome the friction from the ground to allow flow). That's biblical storm surge and the footage proves it.
https://earthsky.org/earth/hurricane-ian-september-2022-florida-us-east/
Not sure what you're trying to say - there was catastrophic surge flooding in Naples, as seen in countless videos/pics, presumably in the locations generally less than 10-12 feet in elevation as the surge was likely in that range (it was 18 feet in Punta Gorda, as I just posted and with Naples further away from Ian's center, one would think the surge would be less at Naples - that's a guess - haven't seen a reliable report of surge from there yet). Also, I don't recall anyone saying there would be surge halfway to Okeechobee, but it's worth noting that the lake is at about 10 feet in elevation and is connected to the GOM via Ft. Myers and a river from there to the lake, so in theory, the 18' of surge in the Ft. Myers area could have led to some surge well up river.
More good men. Those folks definitely put themselves in harms way to save that guy. Good on them.
Well, got back from my late night at the Borgata in the wee hours and just woke up; was at least able to keep up with events last night via my phone and this thread and the one on AmericanWx. Crazy day and night for Florida - hopefully the death toll isn't too high - 5 confirmed deaths as of now, but unfortunately that number is expected to go up, perhaps considerably, given the number of desparate 911 calls received that couldn't be responded to in the midst of the storm. Not going to rehash what has gone on so far, but figured an update on Ian's forecast from here on was in order.
Ian
Ian Impacts
Well, got back from my late night at the Borgata in the wee hours and recently woke up; was at least able to keep up with events last night via my phone and this thread and the one on AmericanWx. Crazy day and night for Florida - hopefully the death toll isn't too high - 5 confirmed deaths as of now (first link below), but unfortunately that number is expected to go up, perhaps considerably, given the number of desperate 911 calls received that couldn't be responded to in the midst of the storm.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...ida-latest-news-tracker-tropical-storm-path1/
Between the incredible storm surges from about Englewood down to Marco Island and the 10-20" of rain through a wide swath of central Florida, mostly along and NW of the track (Tampa to Orlando to Daytona for example), the flooding has just been catastrophic for so many. In addition, of course, the incredible winds near landfall and even inland, as Ian weakened very slowly (possibly due to the "brown ocean effect" discussed last night) brought devastation to many, as did the 100+ small tornadoes observed. Given all that and the over 2 million "customers" (so likely 4-5 million people) without power in FL, Ian is likely to become the most expensive hurricane in history. Not going to rehash, in detail, what has gone on so far, although the 2nd link has some excellent videos on the impact from all over Florida and the 3rd link has a nice overview of storm impacts.
https://www.wpbf.com/article/videos-hurricane-ian/41433985#
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/29/us/hurricane-ian-florida
Ian Forecast:
Since Ian moved more quickly across Florida than expected and with a further SE than forecast track, this means the "starting point" for Ian's next phase is as a stronger storm (spent ~12 hours less over land) which will head further north. This means that Ian still has 70 mph winds as it has emerged north of Cape Canaveral (vs. yesterday's forecast of north of Daytona late Thursday night) and is now expected to become a hurricane with 75-80 mph winds as it curves towards another landfall around Charleston Friday morning (vs. yesterday's forecast of near Savannah as a 50 mph TS).
Looking ahead, Ian is expected to continue heading NE for a bit, but to then bend back NW towards Charleston, given interactions with the approaching trough/front along the SE US - this interaction has also led to Ian becoming somewhat of a "hybrid" cyclone with a combination of tropical and non-tropical characteristics, especially the large swaths of precipitation well to the NW of the storm (more like a cold core low pressure system), which will continue, bringing heavy rains well inland of its track and into the mid-Atlantic.
Ian will NOT regain strength beyond Cat 1, like it had, but still a Cat 1 hurricane is going to have significant impacts to the SE coast with storm surges in the 3-5/4-7 foot range, which could lead to substantial flooding, especially to the NE of the track (so Charleston should hope for the track to be NE of the city which would provide offshore winds, greatly reducing surge). While there will be some wind damage along the coast, by far, the greatest threat is the surge damage. There will also likely be 4-8" rainfall amounts in much of SC/NC along the coast and somewhat inland as Ian dissipates in western NC by Saturday, which will lead to some inland flooding. Several inches of rain are also likely up through VA/MD/DE and possibly even 1-2" in our area, especially near the coast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Ian regained hurricane status at 5 pm with 75 mph winds and they're now up to 85 mph, as the storm is moving towards landfall along the SC coast in about 18 hours, when the forecast calls for an 85 mph hurricane (it's not expected to strengthen much at all due to shear). As we've seen all along for Ian, the actual track keeps being a bit south or east of the forecast track and that is continuing, as landfall is now forecast to be about 50 miles NE of Charleston, as opposed to being very close to Charleston 12 hours ago.
That is a significant relief for Charleston, if it verifies, as it now ought to mostly experience offshore winds as Ian approaches, which should limit surge. However, the surge forecasts weren't decreased yet, as I'm guessing the NHC doesn't want to have people there let their guard down, since the track could shift back closer to Charleston. But surges in NE SC and SW NC could easily be in the 4-7' predicted - likely not catastrophic, except for low-lying areas.
As Ian moves inland, the winds will not die down that quickly, partly because Ian has become a bit of a hybrid storm based on interactions with the stalled frontal system in the SE US (which runs up to our area), so it's not deriving all of its energy from ocean water evaporation (getting some from baroclinic sources, i.e., the gradient from warm to cold air masses, as we see with most lows in our area, including nor'easters). Hence TS force winds are expected a couple of hundred miles inland in SC and NC, as well as heavy rains with 4-8" forecast.
For our area, the main issue is just the rain from a combination of Ian's remnants (which will dissipate in western VA) and that stalled front which extends up to our area. We could get 2-4" along the coast and in SNJ/DE and 1-2" along the 95 corridor, but much less well NW - and we can use the rain, which will mostly fall on Saturday into Sunday.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
Agreed. It's certainly an interesting topic, but it derails this thread and is starting to get a bit chippy, which could lead to mod action. Maybe it should be in a separate thread.
SIAP, but hadn't seen this footage of a house on Fort Myers Beach being ripped from its foundation and floating away. So much devastation...
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Bears from friend with house on Marco Island . A little water in garage.
Flood insurance has to cover the cost to replace the structure if you have a mortgage
Hurricane Ian reignites panic for Florida's strapped insurance market
Florida has missed a direct hit from a hurricane for several years, but Hurricane Ian could prove to be a crippling blow for an insurance market that has lost six insurers this year alone.
www.nbcnews.com
Hurricane Ian’s Toll Is Severe. Lack of Insurance Will Make It Worse.
In Florida’s hardest-hit counties, fewer than 1 in 5 homes have flood insurance. That means communities will struggle to rebuild, experts warn.
Good explanation of Flood insurance, glad to see FEMA changed some of their guidelines but sad to see homeowners drop their insurance due to the rise of insurance premiums.
Lot of people going to move out of Florida after they lose their home.
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Did Rutgers have Flood insurance to cover multiple years of Flood damage? Or were you referring to flood insurance? 😉Hurricane Ian reignites panic for Florida's strapped insurance market
Florida has missed a direct hit from a hurricane for several years, but Hurricane Ian could prove to be a crippling blow for an insurance market that has lost six insurers this year alone.
Hurricane Ian’s Toll Is Severe. Lack of Insurance Will Make It Worse.
In Florida’s hardest-hit counties, fewer than 1 in 5 homes have flood insurance. That means communities will struggle to rebuild, experts warn.www.nytimes.com
Good explanation of Flood insurance, glad to see FEMA changed some of their guidelines but sad to see homeowners drop their insurance due to the rise of insurance premiums.
Lot of people going to move out of Florida after they lose their home.
As it should have been all along.😉
The CE clowns have taken over this thread. Idiots.
Again all good. But maybe you can explain the simulations you shared from Twitter showing expected massive flooding in areas that have elevations much higher than the storm surge ever was or expected to be. On another note just skip it.
personally I just got done cleaning up and fixing the fence that blew away. We were lucky.. As expected the 50 hours of wind destroyed the beaches in NE Florida. I’ve seen pics of 10-15 foot drops offs at the end of people’s yards. Heading up now.
You guys seem determined to get this thread locked or moved to the CE board. Can we stop with the politics already?? If you want to start a thread on emergency aid, feel free to do it, but don't pollute this thread with it.
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