OT: Hurricane Ian to Bring Major to Catastrophic Impacts to Cuba/Florida (and 2022 Tropical Weather Thread):

RU848789

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Ian regained hurricane status at 5 pm with 75 mph winds and they're now up to 85 mph, as the storm is moving towards landfall along the SC coast in about 18 hours, when the forecast calls for an 85 mph hurricane (it's not expected to strengthen much at all due to shear). As we've seen all along for Ian, the actual track keeps being a bit south or east of the forecast track and that is continuing, as landfall is now forecast to be about 50 miles NE of Charleston, as opposed to being very close to Charleston 12 hours ago.

That is a significant relief for Charleston, if it verifies, as it now ought to mostly experience offshore winds as Ian approaches, which should limit surge. However, the surge forecasts weren't decreased yet, as I'm guessing the NHC doesn't want to have people there let their guard down, since the track could shift back closer to Charleston. But surges in NE SC and SW NC could easily be in the 4-7' predicted - likely not catastrophic, except for low-lying areas.

As Ian moves inland, the winds will not die down that quickly, partly because Ian has become a bit of a hybrid storm based on interactions with the stalled frontal system in the SE US (which runs up to our area), so it's not deriving all of its energy from ocean water evaporation (getting some from baroclinic sources, i.e., the gradient from warm to cold air masses, as we see with most lows in our area, including nor'easters). Hence TS force winds are expected a couple of hundred miles inland in SC and NC, as well as heavy rains with 4-8" forecast.

For our area, the main issue is just the rain from a combination of Ian's remnants (which will dissipate in western VA) and that stalled front which extends up to our area. We could get 2-4" along the coast and in SNJ/DE and 1-2" along the 95 corridor, but much less well NW - and we can use the rain, which will mostly fall on Saturday into Sunday.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

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Ian just made its 3rd landfall as an 85 mph hurricane, coming ashore about 2 pm in Georgetown, SC, about 50 miles NE of Charleston, as forecast last night at 11 pm. As discussed last night, being to the left of the track is sparing Charleston the worst of the surge, with winds being offshore mostly coming out of the N or NE, while areas near landfall and NE of there (to the right of the track, they're seeing 3-5/4-7 feet of surge, which will cause considerable flooding/damage (not widespread catastrophic like SW FL, but still impactful - and certainly "catastrophic" if your house is the one destroyed). Winds will cause some damage, but not catastrophic and there will be some rain-driven flooding in large parts of SC/NC. Could also be the usual isolated tornadoes to the right (NE) of the track.

Already getting pretty windy down here in OCNJ and it was even windier in Cape May a few hours ago (played a round of disc golf down there) and rain is on our doorstep - will likely get 2-4" of rain in this area through Sunday, but probably only 1-2" along 95 and less than an inch well to the NW of 95. We need the rain.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/301814.shtml?

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
215 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA...

Surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Ian
made landfall at 205 pm EDT (1805 UTC) near Georgetown, South
Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 977 mb (28.85 inches).


SUMMARY OF 205 PM EDT...1805 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 

RU848789

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pmvon

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Anymore updates on SC?

How many storms have hit one coast went across the state and hit another as a hurricane?
 

MulletCork

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Have a condo on Marco Island. Rode out Irma but left for this one. Back today. It’s a mixed bag but gratefully far luckier than up north here
Roads are all open and passable as are the bridges. Power out for most but all 3 grocery stores open. Friends all fared ok. Water to the doorsteps for the most part for people I talk to .
For those who know, the famous (infamous?) Dome Homes are goners. As are other places.
Buddy in Fort Myers, 3 miles from beach, finally made contact and I was grateful for his news. Lost some roof tiles and water got in his garage only. Very lucky. Mere miles away a wasteland
People working all over here and waste collection came today. Life shall move on thankfully. But it’s a long road back from here on to the north.
 

Knight Shift

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Have a condo on Marco Island. Rode out Irma but left for this one. Back today. It’s a mixed bag but gratefully far luckier than up north here
Roads are all open and passable as are the bridges. Power out for most but all 3 grocery stores open. Friends all fared ok. Water to the doorsteps for the most part for people I talk to .
For those who know, the famous (infamous?) Dome Homes are goners. As are other places.
Buddy in Fort Myers, 3 miles from beach, finally made contact and I was grateful for his news. Lost some roof tiles and water got in his garage only. Very lucky. Mere miles away a wasteland
People working all over here and waste collection came today. Life shall move on thankfully. But it’s a long road back from here on to the north.
Will see you on Marco Island in February. Happy to be visiting for first time in a long time!
 

Knight Shift

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We’ve been going to Key West and Siesta Key the last few winters and going back to both for a few weeks in February but have been wanting to try Marco Island as I hear so much good stuff. Do you rent or hotel?
Good friends of ours built a new house there a year or two ago.
 

RU848789

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Unfortunately, it turns out Lee County (Ft. Myers) didn't issue any mandatory evacuation orders until Tuesday morning, just about 24 hours before hurricane conditions reached that area, whereas other neighboring counties issued such evacuation orders on Monday, 12-18 hours earlier (at 5 pm Monday, the NHC track had shifted to Tampa with major to catastrophic storm surge predicted down through south of Ft. Myers). Don't know how much of a difference the earlier warnings would've made, but it might have helped convince more folks to evacuate.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurric...county-acted-appropriately-evacuation-orders/

Sadly, the death toll from Ian is now up to 87 people, 83 in Florida and 4 in NC, and is likely to well exceed 100 eventually. In addition, it's likely the cost of this storm will exceed 100 billion dollars, which would put it in the top 5 of all-time. There are still about 750K customers without power in Florida - and 140,000 in Puerto Rico, from Fiona.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...erto-rico-hurricane-ian-devastation-rcna50348
 
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RU848789

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A tropical wave nearing the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean has the potential to become our next named storm, although formation is not a given. If it does form, it would be taking a track similar to Ian's track, at least into the Caribbean - beyond that is anyone's guess. And we might get another named system in the next few days not far from the Cape Verde Islands, but this storm is unlikely to pose any threat to land.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
 

e5fdny

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A tropical wave nearing the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean has the potential to become our next named storm, although formation is not a given. If it does form, it would be taking a track similar to Ian's track, at least into the Caribbean - beyond that is anyone's guess. And we might get another named system in the next few days not far from the Cape Verde Islands, but this storm is unlikely to pose any threat to land.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
But if/when it does…😉
 
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NickRU714

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A tropical wave nearing the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean has the potential to become our next named storm, although formation is not a given. If it does form, it would be taking a track similar to Ian's track, at least into the Caribbean - beyond that is anyone's guess. And we might get another named system in the next few days not far from the Cape Verde Islands, but this storm is unlikely to pose any threat to land.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Going to Antigua in 2 weeks.
We didn't really think about hurricane season when we had to rebook.

Watching all the Caribbean activity with white knuckles.
 

NickRU714

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If it materializes check out the new thread for that particular event/storm as this one will be over and done with. 🙂

Good luck.🤞

Or bad luck and we get stuck??
"Sorry mom and dad but we are stuck on the island. Your going to have to watch our kids for another week" 😉
 
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Knight Shift

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Going to Antigua in 2 weeks.
We didn't really think about hurricane season when we had to rebook.

Watching all the Caribbean activity with white knuckles.
Would be a kick in the nuts if the storm was named John (McNulty) or Sean (too far down the list). Best of luck- sucks having vacation plans ruined by weather.
 
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