OT: Major winter storm 3/20-21?

[kcg88]

I thought all of you loved snow

I'm fine with snow in December, January, and February. It's snowed twice in March. Whatever. But a foot of snow on March 21st is where I draw the line.

I have a trail/obstacle race on April 30th and haven't been able to do any trail running to prepare, and now the snow from this storm is gonna be on the ground for at least 2-3 weeks.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Light powdery snow is fine but destructive heavy wet snow I hate

 

[Raritan83]

Ah this should be fun. NWS for Cedar Grove showing 11-19. Great time for my wife to be in Switzerland leaving me with a two year old alone.

Wonder how she'd take being on a leash while I snow blower?

 

[RU1977]

What happened to global warming?

 

[DJ Spanky]

Just heard this in the office:

Winter is like an angry woman: keeps storming out of the room, then opening up the door and saying: "And one more thing....."

 

[Silvers88]

Ah this should be fun. NWS for Cedar Grove showing 11-19. Great time for my wife to be in Switzerland leaving me with a two year old alone.

Wonder how she'd take being on a leash while I snow blower?

Confused, is the question above about your child during the storm or your wife once she gets home?? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

 

[bac2therac]

 

[mildone]

Ah this should be fun. NWS for Cedar Grove showing 11-19. Great time for my wife to be in Switzerland leaving me with a two year old alone.

Wonder how she'd take being on a leash while I snow blower?

She's two. Stop babying her and have her go out and run the snowblower.

 

[bac2therac]

12z GFS...and there may be significant sleet accumulations in south jersey not shown on this map

 

[Zak57]

What are the odds this thing can still trend southwest on us?

 

[Knight Shift]

NWS latest maps have 100% chance of 6" or more for a good chunk of the state north of Toms River and south of Morristown.

 

[bac2therac]

there is always a chance ...better bet is to hope the storm just does not crank and the CCB doesnt develop and scoots along and we get less qpf

models seem in pretty good agreement, NAM shifted back west, GFS is line, some models have slightly higher totals, I think widespread 6-12 covers the bases with potential for more in banding. Euro is next and while it shifted southeast last night, it was still giving 6-10 inches, so unless it freaks out and misses us completely its likely that forecasts are going to be locked in...with every storm there is always the potential for bust...moreso in March where we have had very few big storms in history.

 

[bac2therac]

NWS latest maps have 100% chance of 6" or more for a good chunk of the state north of Toms River and south of Morristown.

lol yes its likely but putting 100% is bullshit on their part. Its more like 85-90%

 

[RUPete]

Downsizing to a condo works too.

lol yes its likely but putting 100% is bullshit on their part. Its more like 85-90%

So 8-12 in NJ would be a reasonable call?

 

[LevaosLectures]

I'll bet we agree on lots of stuff, aside from politics.

Rutgers football for one!

 

[Terry_2426]

Huge flakes and coming down pretty heavy in Voorhees right now

 

[bac2therac]

So 8-12 in NJ would be a reasonable call?

yes but possibility for more the locations that get into bands

 

[RUforester72]

I use wd40 silicone spray but I've read that PAM cooking spray works too. When I made the reminder in the last storm thread some people used the cooking spray and they thought it helped. Basically any sort of lubricant should be helpful, I've even read Crisco but I wouldn't use that myself.

I spray it on the shovel and wipe it down and for the blower I spray it on all the parts that come in contact with snow (chute, impeller, augur blades) and then wipe it down. I do it about 15 min before going out so it has time to set in, whether that matters or not I don't know.

It's not perfect and it doesn't mean nothing will clog or stick but I've been doing it for years and to me there's a big difference before I started the practice of doing it and after I found out about it. The frequency of issues was a lot less for me.

I prefer non-GMO gluten free organic cooking spray.

 

[RU848789]

Just woke up for a bit and saw the NWS snowfall maps, posted below. Warnings are up for basically the whole Philly-NYC region for a general 8-14" of snow for most starting early Weds around dawn and going through Weds evening. The high end amounts will likely be where the best frontogenetic forcing and mesoscale banding is, which is impossible to predict in advance, as we've seen multiple times this winter.

Accumulations may be 6-9" well N/W (Poconos), due to less precip (and the 6Z NAM just came out and shows a fair amount less snow NW of about 20 miles NW of 95) and along the SE NJ coastal areas, due to sleet/rain mixing in, especially early Weds. Sleet could mix in for awhile as far inland as I-95 for a bit. Could be some heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour, which wlll mean accumulation on all surfaces, even in late March during the day. For today and tonight expect some occasional light snow/sleet or maybe freezing rain, with little or no accumulation. Gotta get some more sleep, lol...

Still 24 hours from the main event, so there could easily be some modest to even significant shifts in the storm track and impacts, so stay tuned - in fact, the 6Z NAM just came out and shifted the track SE about 25 miles such that areas NW of about a line 20 miles NW of 95 would get only 3-6" or so - could be a blip or could be a trend. Once the main low forms this evening and starts to strengthen, we'll have a much better handle on final snowfall amounts for the region.

Edit - it's never easy, lol - just look at the new 6Z NAM which went east a fair amount and the 6Z RDPS/RGEM, which came west a bit and is snowier. Going back to sleep for a bit - you guys figure it out, lol...

8 am edit: the rest of the 6Z models generally held serve overall, with the HRDPS and CMC getting a bit snowier vs. 00Z and the GFS getting somewhat less snowy (not sure why on any of these - could just be natural run to run variability - only the 6Z NAMs made a significant shift in track). Here they are. Wouldn't expect any changes in the forecast based on the 6Z suite of models - perhaps a small decrease at most - if the NAM continues the eastward shift at 12Z, then forecasts may change). 12Z up next...

Very busy at work, no time to post model maps, but I assume someone has been as the thread is pages longer. Have seen the huge NAM, the somewhat snowier and pretty big GFS, the huge CMC/GPDS and the pretty big RDPS and HRDPS. If the UK and Euro continue with pretty big (a general 10-14" for most) solutions, then we're going to likely see every other forecaster moving towards the pretty high NWS forecast numbers (they might not increase theirs) and we'll likely see blizzard warnings issued at least for coastal areas. It's about to get real folks.

1:30 pm edit: UK (2nd best model) is a huge hit wth 1-2 feet of snow for almost everyone. Euro is a big hit south of 78/NYC with a foot plus south of that line it does have a somewhat sharp cutoff with the 6" line being about I-80. Hard to think all of Philly to NYC corridor isn't getting at least 10-12" at this point, with up to 18" very possible. NW is a bit more in question, but they do tend to overperform with bands in these situations.

 

[Tango Two]

 

[rutgersguy1]

I prefer non-GMO gluten free organic cooking spray.

Your snow blower from Whole Foods must be thanking you.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

this looks like a 2 snowblower pass event. Thinking 4PM halftime on Wednesday?

 

[CodyRU]

12z GFS...and there may be significant sleet accumulations in south jersey not shown on this map

F$cking A

 

[mikemarc1]

Why is the start time earlier in a swath in northern nj than it is in southern nj?

I thought it was supposed to hit south tonight?

 

[Tango Two]

Why is the start time earlier in a swath in northern nj than it is in southern nj?

I thought it was supposed to hit south tonight?

First place snow hits

 

[suggakane]

Light snow in Brick, big flakes

 

[Knight Shift]

I prefer non-GMO gluten free organic cooking spray.

Tried that stuff on my snowblower, and it ran at an extremely high temperature, got the runs and started spewing out liquid from the chute. What a mess! Had to spray all the parts with pepto bismol to get it regular again.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

latest numbers are saying 11.5 TO 14 INCHES...

we are so screwed....

 

[mikemarc1]

Why is the start time earlier in a swath in northern nj than it is in southern nj?

I thought it was supposed to hit south tonight?

First place snow hits

Yah..didn’t realize it said winter weather onset times.

Still think that map is way off. Already snowing in South Jersey.

 

[retired711]

Huge flakes and coming down pretty heavy in Voorhees right now

Seems to have lightened up in Cherry Hill, but you're right that Voorhees had huge flakes -- I just got back from there. Snow is sticking on grass but not pavement. We'll see how long that lasts. The roads are passable, but caution is needed.

 

[NickRU714]

I'm fine with snow in December, January, and February. It's snowed twice in March. Whatever. But a foot of snow on March 21st is where I draw the line.

I have a trail/obstacle race on April 30th and haven't been able to do any trail running to prepare, and now the snow from this storm is gonna be on the ground for at least 2-3 weeks.

Spartan NJ Beast?

 

[kcg88]

Spartan NJ Beast?

Yup. Doing the Ultra this year after the Beast last year.

Been putting in the running miles but it's all been flat. Was hoping for some warmer weather so I could run at Baldpate Mountain but it's been either too snowy or muddy since the fall.

 

[Degaz-RU]

latest numbers are saying 11.5 TO 14 INCHES...

we are so screwed....

Cue Hillsborough MILFs joke here.

 

[Rutgers1976]

Cue Hillsborough MILFs joke here.

I think that even the Hillsborough MILFs have had enough for a while. And they're a tough bunch.

 

[RU848789]

Why is the start time earlier in a swath in northern nj than it is in southern nj?

I thought it was supposed to hit south tonight?

That's from part 1, which is approaching from the SW and already snowing SW of Philly, where they may ge 1-3" this afternoon. Part 1 likely doesn't do much at all north of 195 and especially north of 78 (east of Clinton); then, part 2 will approach from the south with the coastal bombing out off the NC coast late tonight, which is why the big snows don't start until maybe sunrise or even later.

 

[mikemarc1]

Why is the start time earlier in a swath in northern nj than it is in southern nj?

I thought it was supposed to hit south tonight?

That's from part 1, which is approaching from the SW and already snowing SW of Philly, where they may ge 1-3" this afternoon. Part 1 likely doesn't do much at all north of 195 and especially north of 78 (east of Clinton); then, part 2 will approach from the south with the coastal bombing out off the NC coast late tonight, which is why the big snows don't start until maybe sunrise or even later.

Thanks. But the blue swath says a 3pm Tuesday start..that far north in NJ?

That’s the earliest I’ve seen. Or am I reading the map wrong?

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

my acuweather said 2pm start here in Ringoes...its 1:54 and the snow sprinkles have started... and away we go.....

 

[Degaz-RU]

Today and most of the overnight tonight are just supposed to be light nuisance sprinkles, sleet, and snow, but little accumulation. If you look at the hourly forecasts on NWS, the real accumulating snows aren't supposed to start until just before daybreak, and then in earnest between 6:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.

 

[RUScrew85]

my acuweather said 2pm start here in Ringoes...its 1:54 and the snow sprinkles have started... and away we go.....

Been snowing in Mt. Laurel since 11AM says a certain Mrs. Football Know it all.

 

[Tango Two]