OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)

[RU848789]

Very nice. You're only a bit below the NWS but I'd say you're in line with most others with the 12-18" general forecast for essentially N of 276/195 (except right at the coast). Even the NWS has the 18-24" color for most of the same locations as your 12-18", but if you look at the numbers most of those are 18-21", so it's actually pretty close. TWC looks to be the most bullish which is unusual and Channel 7 is the least bullish.

Figured I'd make a post with the snowfall maps from the NWS and some others, including yours. Here they are. I think the NWS-Philly is about to update theirs, so will update when they do. As I've been saying, I think 12" or more is nearly a lock for N of 276/195 and 18-24" is going to be common anywhere that sleet/rain doesn't mix in, which is most likely north of the Raritan/202 (and maybe NW Monmouth) and especially N of 78. And I still think the 12" line is likely to be around Philly to Howell. The very hard part is SE of that line where a fair amount of rain (and some sleet) is much more likely, which could have a huge impact on snowfall amounts.

Edit - NWS-Philly finally updated their map - only minor changes...

7:30 pm Edit - NWS finally added the regional map below, including the updates from Philly and NYC...

And this is our own RUJohnny's forecast...

And the last one here is for our Freeze-o-philes...

The last holdout, Channel 7, finally caved and bumped their snowfall forecasts up quite a bit. This is what happens when Lee Goldberg isn't around, lol.

At the rate we're going, we might have 7-10" by 7 am in much of the area and if the coastal then delivers the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm, some are going to see totals of 18-24" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible - barring some unforseen changeover or dry slot.

 

[RUScrew85]

We always laugh at the, “if you’re cold, they’re cold” PSAs. Last year we had one pile of snow left by the chicken coop, everything else had melted. What does Savannah do? Goes out, lays down right on the pile and falls asleep. It’s a battle to get them in at night.

Yeah those cold weather dogs never get cold.

 

[RUChoppin]

Just cleared about 5" off the driveway before bed at the base of Sourland Mtn in Hillsborough. Very powdery.

 

[niarte]

We always laugh at the, “if you’re cold, they’re cold” PSAs. Last year we had one pile of snow left by the chicken coop, everything else had melted. What does Savannah do? Goes out, lays down right on the pile and falls asleep. It’s a battle to get them in at night.

I have a Leonberger and a German Shepherd. The Leonberger would live in the snow if she could.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just checked and a solid 6” in my corner of Belle Mead - where are you?

Only 3.5 inches in Belle Mead as per DPW at 11pm. The light, fluffy snow is now somewhat compact. WW's forecast of 9-15 total inches seemed to be on target.

 

[bac2therac]

The last holdout, Channel 7, finally caved and bumped their snowfall forecasts up quite a bit. This is what happens when Lee Goldberg isn't around, lol.

At the rate we're going, we might have 7-10" by 7 am in much of the area and if the coastal then delivers the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm, some are going to see totals of 18-24" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible.

I dont think this was just changed, pretty sure I saw this graphic on their 6 PM broadcast

 

[T2Kplus20]

I dont think this was just changed, pretty sure I saw this graphic on their 6 PM broadcast

+1
He is confused. About 12" in our area seems reasonable and in line with WW.

 

[OTBOTOR]

NOW we’re getting some Effin snow! Visibility down under a half mile and throwin down flakes like Tony Tiger

 

[JERZEE73]

+1
He is confused. About 12" in our area seems reasonable and in line with WW.

I've got close to 6" already in So. Brunswick, so I don't see how ###s is confused?
Wouldn't be at all surprised if we end up with 20-24

 

[T2Kplus20]

I've got close to 6" already in So. Brunswick, so I don't see how ###s is confused?
Wouldn't be at all surprised if we end up with 20-24

He is confused regarding the map, see Bac's email. WW is the most accurate snow forecast service in NJ. They predict 9-15 inches for southern Somerset County. I'll stick with their numbers. Seems to be on target especially after the local DPW gave their updates.

 

[RU848789]

I dont think this was just changed, pretty sure I saw this graphic on their 6 PM broadcast

Yes, it was changed. Just look at the post of mine from late this afternoon which includes the much lower totals with Amy Freeze - I quoted that post in my post above, so people didn't have to go looking for it.

 

[OTBOTOR]

Accuweather showing a change to rain tomorrow for NYC/NE NJ ?

 

[JERZEE73]

He is confused regarding the map, see Bac's email. WW is the most accurate snow forecast service in NJ. They predict 9-15 inches for southern Somerset County. I'll stick with their numbers. Seems to be on target especially after the local DPW gave their updates.

You may want to see ###s response. Based on all I've seen, including having 6+ inches
already on the ground minutes from Southern Somerset County & most forecasters saying that tomorrow holds the majority of accumulation, I think you'd be wrong to not anticipate more than 15". Time will tell, but I'll be surprised if we don't get 18+ with 20+ looking very doable.

 

[RU848789]

He is confused regarding the map, see Bac's email. WW is the most accurate snow forecast service in NJ. They predict 9-15 inches for southern Somerset County. I'll stick with their numbers. Seems to be on target especially after the local DPW gave their updates.

WW did very well on 12/16 but is likely going to bust low for CNJ. And they've blown many forecasts over the years, just like most others.

 

[Doteman]

we have around 7 in pway. Gonna way overperform

 

[Jjnik]

Only 3.5 inches in Belle Mead as per DPW at 11pm. The light, fluffy snow is now somewhat compact. WW's forecast of 9-15 total inches seemed to be on target.

Not sure what DPW is but I now have a solid 7” in Belle Mead at 12:15AM and still coming down - so DPW is off, at least for this part of Belle Mead.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Newark has finally disappeared from my kitchen window.That's when I know that it's game on.

 

[RocktheRac]

Just came in from plowing 2 commercial lots. About 5 inches. Very fluffy. In and out quickly. Saving driveways til Tuesday morning.

 

[bac2therac]

about 6 inches now here

 

[RU848789]

Up to 4.0" as of 10 pm in Metuchen - 1/2" over the last half hour. Temp steady at 23F. It's freakin' gorgeous out there - go take a walk if you haven't yet. Luckily our son just did the first shovel - I'm going to do the next one around sunrise - something about seeing the "sun" come up while it's snowing that I find incredibly beautiful and peaceful.

Been posting every hour, but must have skipped here. Anyway, we had 5.0" at 11 pm, 6.0" at midnight (1" per hour rates - heaviest of the storm so far) and now 6.5" at 1 am. Looks like we may have a break in the action or just light precip soon for an hour or so. Still, 6.5" is about what was expected by 7 am, so anything we get in the next 6 hours puts us ahead of expectations - and the HRRR and other models are showing 2-4" over the next 6 hours. I'm guessing this stuff is 15:1 ratio snow/liquid (usually 10:1 around here), since we've been able to "shovel" it with a broom.

 

[RU848789]

Not sure what DPW is but I now have a solid 7” in Belle Mead at 12:15AM and still coming down - so DPW is off, at least for this part of Belle Mead.

He's likely making it up as he goes - he always reports low totals, because he hates snow and likes to troll these threads. You guys should definitely get at least 18", barring something crazy happening.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Went out and pushed around two and a half inches off of the driveway at 12:30.

 

[RUevolution36]

I cleared another 2 around 12. Added up, that puts me around 6 plus whatever has accumulated the past couple of hours

 

[goru1869]

6 inches in Flanders now .

 

[RU848789]

Been posting every hour, but must have skipped here. Anyway, we had 5.0" at 11 pm, 6.0" at midnight (1" per hour rates - heaviest of the storm so far) and now 6.5" at 1 am. Looks like we may have a break in the action or just light precip soon for an hour or so. Still, 6.5" is about what was expected by 7 am, so anything we get in the next 6 hours puts us ahead of expectations - and the HRRR and other models are showing 2-4" over the next 6 hours. I'm guessing this stuff is 15:1 ratio snow/liquid (usually 10:1 around here), since we've been able to "shovel" it with a broom.

Just went for a "JebWalk" - a beautiful night in the snow. Up to 7.0" here in Metuchen as of 2 am and yes, it's still 23F. Snow has been very light the last 20 minutes or so and the radar looks spotty for awhile, so this could be a good time to get a bit of sleep.

 

[FastMJ]

The last holdout, Channel 7, finally caved and bumped their snowfall forecasts up quite a bit. This is what happens when Lee Goldberg isn't around, lol.

At the rate we're going, we might have 7-10" by 7 am in much of the area and if the coastal then delivers the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm, some are going to see totals of 18-24" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible - barring some unforseen changeover or dry slot.

A dry slot is a terrible thing. Sounds like a side effect of menopause

 

[goru1869]

About 8 1/2 inches in Flanders .

 

[VW Knight]

Raining in Howell. Please tell me it changes back to snow

 

[MulletCork]

It’s a total shit show out there.
Close the blinds and go back to bed !

 

[Joey Bags]

All sleet here in Raritan, will be shocked if these NWS forecasted totals verify (per usual). Still liking the WW 9-14 inch call.

 

[kcg88]

Only about 5 inches in West Windsor. We'll see what the day brings.

 

[RocktheRac]

Just came back from doing driveways and commercial lots. Rt 206 from Somerville Circle to Hillsborough down to blacktop. Plowed and salted. Side roads not bad. The secondary roads are passable. Hillsborough Twp doing tertiary roads also. Not bad. Think we had 8 in Hillsborough. When I went out at 1030 there was about 5. When I went out at 330 there was about 3 inches more on the commercial lots I did earlier. If it wasn't for this second wave I would say everything is good to go sans sidewalks.

 

[WhiteBus]

The last holdout, Channel 7, finally caved and bumped their snowfall forecasts up quite a bit. This is what happens when Lee Goldberg isn't around, lol.

At the rate we're going, we might have 7-10" by 7 am in much of the area and if the coastal then delivers the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm, some are going to see totals of 18-24" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible - barring some unforseen changeover or dry slot.

But as you also see that they lowered Philly away from the 12-18. Good Morning America is live in Philly at Independence Hall/Liberty Bell area. (Simply called Independence Mall).
They now are calling for just 6-8 here. Not much if anything overnight. Not snowing right now. Radar shows most of this area with nothing right now.

 

[drewbagel423]

Got maybe 4-6 in Clifton so far. Any idea how much more to expect?

 

[Degaz-RU]

NWS map lowered totals for north/central NJ from 18-24 down to about 15-18. Only swath of 18+ is now in Sussex County.

About 7-8 inches on the ground in Bridgewater, and right now there’s no precipitation falling (dry slot?).

RU#s, what’s your take?

 

[rurichdog]

Sleet, freezing rain, and rain here at the south end of Hamilton. As always, if you want to find the rain/snow line, just draw a line from Sandy Hook to the Trenton Makes Bridge.

 

[Plum Street]

NWS map lowered totals for north/central NJ from 18-24 down to about 15-18. Only swath of 18+ is now in Sussex County.

About 7-8 inches on the ground in Bridgewater, and right now there’s no precipitation falling (dry slot?).

RU#s, what’s your take?

I think it’s supposed to start up
Again and go heavy until about 7 pm. But I defer to #s

 

[CodyRU]

Left house in Bellmawr for work 20 miles south. About 3 inches on the ground. Raining off and on. Main roads totally fine. No one on the roads which is nice. I plan on keeping an eye on the forecast and might head home at lunchtime

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not sure what DPW is but I now have a solid 7” in Belle Mead at 12:15AM and still coming down - so DPW is off, at least for this part of Belle Mead.

The town's Department of Public Works. They plow the roads and keep a running total of the snow fall. They are by far the most accurate guide to how much snow has fallen in Belle Mead and Skillman (especially since they cover the entire town).

 

[RuBird]

Getting plenty up here in Hawthorne