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OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)

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you guys are like 50/50 for getting in on the big snows...some of the models really deck you with 20 inches plus yet others are half that.
I dont think you will see much rain until the lighter precip moves in...and I think the snow over night will be at a lighter clip, tomorrow morning when it really gets cranking
Watching local news. Snow/rain line just about to hit Cape May. Earlier forecast then this morning
 
I know a long way to go and tomorrow is the main show but we are at just a 1/2 inch here. Debating staying up till 11ish and doing first shovel or going to bed early and getting up in the early am for round 1. If we do get 12 its a few rounds of shoveling. And will we get rain?

Depends on the wind. If it's windy at 10-10:30 why bother?
 
I've already gotten out the shovels, we've been inundated! Took this at 6:48 PM:

HTGSgZp.jpg
 
I know a long way to go and tomorrow is the main show but we are at just a 1/2 inch here. Debating staying up till 11ish and doing first shovel or going to bed early and getting up in the early am for round 1. If we do get 12 its a few rounds of shoveling. And will we get rain?
I just hired the neighbors kid. He has a quad with a plow. He will start Tuesday morning
 
Knew I forgot something. Just put air in my snow thrower tires. Was under 10psi, should be 20...
 
I just hired the neighbors kid. He has a quad with a plow. He will start Tuesday morning
I have 30+ feet of sidewalk to shovel. Mine and my 80 year old neighbor. I'm good. Plus you can't wait until till Tuesday in the city. But I have no driveway ...bonus
 
Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).


What.... no ground meat left?????
 
Haha thanks
Peanut butter cookies with Hershey kisses.
Now making some broccoli and cavatelli.
Chocolate chip is my thing , but I have to say your PB cookies with the kisses sound great !
The dinner thingy also looks good .
 
Just went for a walk in Hamilton. About 2” on the ground. Almost feel a little mixing coming in. Mainly snow though Hopefully not too much of a mix. That will suck to shovel.
 
I have 30+ feet of sidewalk to shovel. Mine and my 80 year old neighbor. I'm good. Plus you can't wait until till Tuesday in the city. But I have no driveway ...bonus
My driveway is over 150 feet long and is very wide at the top. About 30×30.
 
Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).

And up to 2.75" OTG in Metuchen at 7 pm at 23F. Time for RU hoops...
 
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Wind from calm to crazy in minutes. Also snow has stopped for now. Must be a dry slot.
 
Very nice. You're only a bit below the NWS but I'd say you're in line with most others with the 12-18" general forecast for essentially N of 276/195 (except right at the coast). Even the NWS has the 18-24" color for most of the same locations as your 12-18", but if you look at the numbers most of those are 18-21", so it's actually pretty close. TWC looks to be the most bullish which is unusual and Channel 7 is the least bullish.

Figured I'd make a post with the snowfall maps from the NWS and some others, including yours. Here they are. I think the NWS-Philly is about to update theirs, so will update when they do. As I've been saying, I think 12" or more is nearly a lock for N of 276/195 and 18-24" is going to be common anywhere that sleet/rain doesn't mix in, which is most likely north of the Raritan/202 (and maybe NW Monmouth) and especially N of 78. And I still think the 12" line is likely to be around Philly to Howell. The very hard part is SE of that line where a fair amount of rain (and some sleet) is much more likely, which could have a huge impact on snowfall amounts.

Edit - NWS-Philly finally updated their map - only minor changes...

7:30 pm Edit - NWS finally added the regional map below, including the updates from Philly and NYC...

pmAtjwU.png


1D4XhIu.png


WboZYR0.png


JnPJn6Z.png


And this is our own RUJohnny's forecast...

KZMgJZZ.png



5P1VRPM.png


And the last one here is for our Freeze-o-philes...


SQ1NOcY.jpg

Bumping this in case folks didn't see and since the NWS finally updated their regional snowfall map, which is very nicely done visually with NJ and parts of all nearby states. RU up 10-2 early which is cool

pmAtjwU.png
 
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Just went for a walk in Hamilton. About 2” on the ground. Almost feel a little mixing coming in. Mainly snow though Hopefully not too much of a mix. That will suck to shovel.
Doubt you mix at all or at least not until 3/4 of the storm is over and you have over a foot. Confluence (cold air source) is nearly perfect.
 
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Doubt you mix at all or at least not until 3/4 of the storm is over and you have over a foot. Confluence (cold air source) is nearly perfect.
Yeah now all snow. When I was walking was a little mix. Bring on the snow ❄️
 
A pretty healthy band of snow has been rolling northward just south of Trenton for a bit.
 
Very nice. You're only a bit below the NWS but I'd say you're in line with most others with the 12-18" general forecast for essentially N of 276/195 (except right at the coast). Even the NWS has the 18-24" color for most of the same locations as your 12-18", but if you look at the numbers most of those are 18-21", so it's actually pretty close. TWC looks to be the most bullish which is unusual and Channel 7 is the least bullish.

Figured I'd make a post with the snowfall maps from the NWS and some others, including yours. Here they are. I think the NWS-Philly is about to update theirs, so will update when they do. As I've been saying, I think 12" or more is nearly a lock for N of 276/195 and 18-24" is going to be common anywhere that sleet/rain doesn't mix in, which is most likely north of the Raritan/202 (and maybe NW Monmouth) and especially N of 78. And I still think the 12" line is likely to be around Philly to Howell. The very hard part is SE of that line where a fair amount of rain (and some sleet) is much more likely, which could have a huge impact on snowfall amounts.

Edit - NWS-Philly finally updated their map - only minor changes...

7:30 pm Edit - NWS finally added the regional map below, including the updates from Philly and NYC...

pmAtjwU.png


1D4XhIu.png


WboZYR0.png


JnPJn6Z.png


And this is our own RUJohnny's forecast...

KZMgJZZ.png



5P1VRPM.png


And the last one here is for our Freeze-o-philes...


SQ1NOcY.jpg
6-12 in eastern Bergen and the Bronx? There's only a few million people there that she will likely whiff by a foot for. Yikes.
 
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