OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)
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the 3K 18z NAM gives some hope
that's a misleading map as it's only through 4 am Tuesday - storm's not over - here's the final map. NAM is still less for SW of Trenton though.
NWS:
Good evening! Please see our latest briefing for the ongoing storm (you may need to refresh the page). This will be a major and long duration storm; pace yourselves and stay safe!
Official Briefing:
Good evening! Please see our latest briefing for the ongoing storm (you may need to refresh the page). This will be a major and long duration storm; pace yourselves and stay safe!
Official Briefing:
Just did my first bit of shoveling so the little dogs had a path to do their business.
It is easier with the big dog when it snows
Not according to weather works. Snow tapering off after midnight with occasional snow showers.that's a misleading map as it's only through 4 am Tuesday - storm's not over - here's the final map. NAM is still less for SW of Trenton though.
Wait! 2 - 3" here?
The snowfall projections sure have been a rollercoaster ride.
NWS now says 0-1" Mon - Tue along the So Mon - Ocean Co coast.
The snowfall projections sure have been a rollercoaster ride.
NWS now says 0-1" Mon - Tue along the So Mon - Ocean Co coast.
What does WW have to do with the 18Z 3km NAM? The model doesn't show it stopping until late Tuesday, not 4 am Tuesday.
NWS:
Good evening! Please see our latest briefing for the ongoing storm (you may need to refresh the page). This will be a major and long duration storm; pace yourselves and stay safe!
Official Briefing:
That briefing map is screwed up for the Monmouth coast - no way is Long Branch only getting 2-3" - they're in the 4-6" color and almost in the 6-8" color. And they list Toms River at 3", so you're not getting 0-1" in Pt. Pleasant (think that's where you're from), at least according to the map below and the point/click forecasts. You might also overperform and get 6-10" - wouldn't take much.
AntSnowfa (those on these threads who protest any discussions of large snow amounts) needs to apologize to #.
He’s gettin a Ron Jeremy
As of 5 pm we had 1.5" and it was still 24F in Metuchen and snowing lightly.
Bad use of a male porn star. Didn't know the reference. Never heard of him. Fuking guy is up on over a half dozen sexual assault charges. WTF you get paid to have sex with beautiful porn stars and then you have to rape others??
Haha thanks
Peanut butter cookies with Hershey kisses.
Now making some broccoli and cavatelli.
Excellent post and info. This storm is a hard one to figure with many curves but someone is gonna get the money shot if you will.Very nice. You're only a bit below the NWS but I'd say you're in line with most others with the 12-18" general forecast for essentially N of 276/195 (except right at the coast). Even the NWS has the 18-24" color for most of the same locations as your 12-18", but if you look at the numbers most of those are 18-21", so it's actually pretty close. TWC looks to be the most bullish which is unusual and Channel 7 is the least bullish.
Figured I'd make a post with the snowfall maps from the NWS and some others, including yours. Here they are. I think the NWS-Philly is about to update theirs, so will update when they do. As I've been saying, I think 12" or more is nearly a lock for N of 276/195 and 18-24" is going to be common anywhere that sleet/rain doesn't mix in, which is most likely north of the Raritan/202 (and maybe NW Monmouth) and especially N of 78. And I still think the 12" line is likely to be around Philly to Howell. The very hard part is SE of that line where a fair amount of rain (and some sleet) is much more likely, which could have a huge impact on snowfall amounts.
Edit - NWS-Philly finally updated their map - only minor changes...
And this is our own RUJohnny's forecast...
And the last one here is for our Freeze-o-philes...
That briefing map is screwed up for the Monmouth coast - no way is Long Branch only getting 2-3" - they're in the 4-6" color and almost in the 6-8" color. And they list Toms River at 3", so you're not getting 0-1" in Pt. Pleasant (think that's where you're from), at least according to the map below and the point/click forecasts. You might also overperform and get 6-10" - wouldn't take much.
Not in Point but to paraphrase Sarah Palin I can see it from my deck.
Here's what the NWS says for Manasquan....
Tonight
Snow before 10pm, then rain and snow. Low around 31. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Monday
Rain and snow before 10am, then rain between 10am and 11am, then rain and snow after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Windy, with a northeast wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Monday Night
Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 35. Breezy, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
If I was any closer to the coast I'd be IN the ocean lol.
Hey, they may be wrong but till proven otherwise I want to believe 'em. No offense Bud.
If I do I better put some rocks in my pocket or with the wind I may end up in the Glimmer Glass or Manasquan River.
Oh not much wind here yet. Big time winds?? Stay safe! But bar pie and beer might be worth the risk
i have no idea what to believe. They tell me here in S. Howell to expect 8" to 12", I head 12 miles due south to my job site in Toms River they say they'll get 2" to 4". I'm at a loss what to do this week for work till this is all over.
the main show is basically over a bit after midnight Monday....however its lingering lighter snows after that and around Tuesday that could give 2-3 more inches
Big pot of chili simmering. Corn bread to go in the oven half an hour before it's done.
Making mac and cheese now so my belly stays warm when out plowing.
I know a long way to go and tomorrow is the main show but we are at just a 1/2 inch here. Debating staying up till 11ish and doing first shovel or going to bed early and getting up in the early am for round 1. If we do get 12 its a few rounds of shoveling. And will we get rain?
Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).
you guys are like 50/50 for getting in on the big snows...some of the models really deck you with 20 inches plus yet others are half that.
I dont think you will see much rain until the lighter precip moves in...and I think the snow over night will be at a lighter clip, tomorrow morning when it really gets cranking
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