OT: Minor to Moderate Snow Possible on Monday, 1/6 (uncertainty high); also 1-2" Fri, 1/3 Philly to AC and SW of there
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Minor update: tonight's 18Z GFS, ICON and Euro continued to move the snow/precip shield further north putting CNJ potentially in line for 2-4" and NYC for 1-3" (or possibly more...or less), as per the updated NBM (model blend), below, which also saw a further increase on the northern side of the storm in response. The biggest change was the 2" line moving from about 78 to well north of 80, putting NYC squarely in the 1-3" range on the NBM (and CNJ in the 2-4" range). Still 3+ days out and we know a lot can happen in 3 days, so nothing is in stone yet, but we're getting closer, so major changes should be less likely than 2 days ago.
Back to model mayhem. While 12Z and 18Z runs earlier today were starting to look like the northward trend was occurring for all of the global models, the current 0Z models are more all over the place than they've been in a day or so, so I was wrong above about major changes being less likely now vs. 12+ hours ago (although that is supposed to happen, i.e., the closer one gets to the event, the model accuracy should approach 100%).
Anyway, the 0Z GFS joined the ICON, which was a very snowy outlier at 18Z, as the two snowiest models for our area, which was a major shift for the GFS (5-8" for most of CNJ/SNJ for example). But then the CMC showed less precip for most of NJ, especially CNJ/NNJ going from 2-4" for CNJ to 1-2", for example, which is a modest change, while the NAM, at the end of its run (not always useful) did show what looked to be a GFS-style hit. And then the big surprise was the 0Z UK moving from 1-2" for CNJ to nada until down at 276/195, where it had maybe 1" - that was a huge change - followed by the 0Z Euro going from 2-4" for CNJ to <1", as both the UK and Euro snow/precip fields moved significantly south.
Every pro on AmericanWx and 33andrain is scratching their heads over what to make of all of this, meaning I have no shot of figuring anything useful out at this time. Even using the NBM Model Blend is probably a bad idea when there are two very distinct camps like this. One can blend them and get a moderate snowfall for our area, but the outcome is just as likely now to be one camp or the other. FWIW, the NBM is about the same as it was at 18Z.
I don't envy forecasters for this one. At this point I would probably just punt and wait for better model consensus and use the NBM which still says 1-3"/2-4" for CNJ (less north and more south), but I'd note that <1" (or even nada) and 3-6" are still on the table.
Look on the bright side - if the Euro/UK are right, we get very little snow and you get to go to the game rather than plow. I know tonight was brutal, but just imagine if Bailey could play like he did tonight while Harper does his usual magic. We could play with 3 walk-ons and probably be competitive, lol, but damn, if they can bring it, together and we can just get some half decent play from the others...
Update on tomorrow's little shortwave that could (I did add it into the thread title). I wouldn't expect much north of Philly to Toms River, which is usually my cutoff for making threads, but since there are some Philly/SNJ folks around here, this is the latest snowfall map, showing 1-2" from west of Philly down to about LBI and SW of that line. The NWS issued advisories for 1-2" of snow for this area, partly due to the impact/timing of mid afternoon through mid-evening tomorrow, including the pm rush hour. @retired711
No NWS map updates and most of the models are in the 1" or so range for where the advisories are (Philly to AC and SW of there), so not sure we'll see much change.
However, in the vein of model mayhem, here's reason #993 to not trust the HRRR beyond 24 hours, lol - this is a comparison of the 18Z and 0Z model runs (just 6 hours apart) for tomorrow's little storm in SNJ/SEPA/DE.
I just said it was probably a bad idea to use it now, so no hugging - the comment about using it despite that was somewhat tongue in cheek, since I have no clue what anyone would use at this point to make a forecast given the mayhem. Also, despite Gorse's comment on the NBM, many pros like it and use it - it's becoming a favored tool according to a few other pros I've asked and you can see how often it's referred to now in the NWS discussions.
Thought the models were actually decent last year on the few storms we had, unlike two winters ago, when it kept looking like we'd get some snow and almost every system moved NW bringing us mostly rain. Anyway, hopefully having the main piece of energy over land tomorrow will give us more accurate model inputs so we can get a better consensus by tomorrow afternoon or night.
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The winter weather advisory for South Jersey was re-issued in almost identical form this morning. But the seven-day forecast for my Cherry Hill zip code is now calling for a mixture of rain and snow. That is consistent with the forecast for a high of 39 degrees. BTW, this is not the first time that an advisory, watch, or warning has said something different than the specific forecast for my zip code; the latter is almost always less alarming than the former. Here's the forecast. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.8949495&lon=-74.9721594
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This morning's 6Z GFS and ICON (the big snowfall models at 0Z last night) both moved south with their snow/precip fields, leaving CNJ with 1-3" and 3-5" respectively, while the Euro at 6Z again showed <1" for CNJ (last night's 0Z UK had nada for CNJ and last night's 0Z CMC had 1-2" for CNJ). It's not clear if the models are moving towards a lower consensus for CNJ/NNJ than we saw yesterday (to maybe 1-2" vs. 2-4") or if they're moving towards a minimal <1" event for CNJ. Still a long way to go, especially given that the main energy won't be ashore in Cali until this evening, meaning the 0Z runs tonight will be the first with better data inputs. Don't have time for much more analysis of 6Z, which has less models than 12Z anyway; let's see what 12Z brings.Back to model mayhem. While 12Z and 18Z runs earlier today were starting to look like the northward trend was occurring for all of the global models, the current 0Z models are more all over the place than they've been in a day or so, so I was wrong above about major changes being less likely now vs. 12+ hours ago (although that is supposed to happen, i.e., the closer one gets to the event, the model accuracy should approach 100%).
Anyway, the 0Z GFS joined the ICON, which was a very snowy outlier at 18Z, as the two snowiest models for our area, which was a major shift for the GFS (5-8" for most of CNJ/SNJ for example). But then the CMC showed less precip for most of NJ, especially CNJ/NNJ going from 2-4" for CNJ to 1-2", for example, which is a modest change, while the NAM, at the end of its run (not always useful) did show what looked to be a GFS-style hit. And then the big surprise was the 0Z UK moving from 1-2" for CNJ to nada until down at 276/195, where it had maybe 1" - that was a huge change - followed by the 0Z Euro going from 2-4" for CNJ to <1", as both the UK and Euro snow/precip fields moved significantly south.
Every pro on AmericanWx and 33andrain is scratching their heads over what to make of all of this, meaning I have no shot of figuring anything useful out at this time. Even using the NBM Model Blend is probably a bad idea when there are two very distinct camps like this. One can blend them and get a moderate snowfall for our area, but the outcome is just as likely now to be one camp or the other. FWIW, the NBM is about the same as it was at 18Z.
I don't envy forecasters for this one. At this point I would probably just punt and wait for better model consensus and use the NBM which still says 1-3"/2-4" for CNJ (less north and more south), but I'd note that <1" (or even nada) and 3-6" are still on the table.
The NWS finally updated their snowfall map for today's minor snowfall and it's pretty similar to the previous one. The 1-2" amounts may not necessarily be in the area specified (given what some models are showing) and may also be smaller than shown and only be where the best bands set up.No NWS map updates and most of the models are in the 1" or so range for where the advisories are (Philly to AC and SW of there), so not sure we'll see much change.
However, in the vein of model mayhem, here's reason #993 to not trust the HRRR beyond 24 hours, lol - this is a comparison of the 18Z and 0Z model runs (just 6 hours apart) for tomorrow's little storm in SNJ/SEPA/DE.
The issue is relying on 5-7 day model runs to get excited and then totally memoryholing prior season with models rapidly changing as we approached 72 hours...to me anything beyond 72 hours on models is highly untrustworthy
On that note there is a potential for a another storm toward next weekend as well
You and Tango are so much better at this. Just the facts without any wishcasting bias.
Those reports have always seemed out of whack and a good month behind. They showed the exact opposite back in Oct. and Nov when you could have burnt up CJ by dropping a match.
Who knows how they measure this stuff but it seems like it's a model that's technical math but not common sense. Drove along the Del. River from Trenton to Easton New Year's day to visit son and the river was over-flowing. (yes that is just one part of the state).
Exactly. At least a month behind, but the lemmings on the board don't understand that simple fact.
well to be fair the maps are the maps and they say what they say. I just prefer to step back a bit and try to throw some perspective into the stuff. After all it is our government doing the work and they aren't known for their flexibility.
The NWS has not lifted the winter weather advisory in South Jersey for 1 to 2 inches from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. today. But my local forecast now predicts less than a half inch between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. This makes sense because I am in Cherry Hill and at the very fringe of the area where (according to the map above) an inch is forecast.
Out all day but a few inches still look likely along 276/195 and several inches for Philly/SNJ and south of there as the issue is the cold dry air eating up and suppressing all the precip N of 276/195...
So they have 1.4 in Newark, probably looking at 2 in No. Plfd. and 8 in Metuchen.
Light flurries in Philly now. Nothing sticking any where. Some sites are saying this will end before 7pm so this isn't an event. Tomorrow winds might be one! However, the last few weeks the winds have underperformed of what was forecast. Still big winds but several times over 20mph sustained winds was forecast and they weren't.
I still feel like the winds have been more prevalent recently than any year in recent memory though.
That's because I pulled the tarp off my snowblower. Once that happens, the snow goes away.
You're welcome Snow Haters.
Yeah, I was concerned about the predicted winds over the last two days and they were noticeable, but not as bad as I expected. I remember one of those March specials a couple of years back with competing air masses. I lost five sections of fence with a post snapped.
Snow's coming on Monday: NWS says 4-6" S of 276/195 (with lollipops of 6-8" where the best bands set up), 2-4" from 276/195 to 80 and 0-2" N of 80, but most models say less, so color me a bit skeptical, but hopeful. Other weather sources are less optimistic for snow, especially N of 276/195, with many only having 1-2" for most of CNJ, for example.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Been out all day, so haven't had time to go through all of the models and reasoning, but not a single major model has as much snow as the NWS is predicting for north of 276/195, although note that most models do have at least 2-4" along 276/195 with more south of there, so not as skeptical on the 4-6" forecast of snow for SNJ/SEPA.
Some models have <1" for CNJ (276/195 up to 78), while others have 1-3" and only one (the GFS) has 2-4", but the NWS isn't really going by the models, as per their discussion, below. Basically, they feel the models are overdoing the suppression of the approaching storm too far to the south, based on their analysis of the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and mesoscale features, but they do acknowledge that there is significant bust risk for areas N of 276/195, as the confluence of cold/dry air from the NE might still keep the snow to the south. We'll see soon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Our attention then turns to the winter storm potential that will
impact the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night through Monday,
possibly lingering into Monday night. A potent shortwave ejecting
out of the Rocky Mountain region will develop into a closed low as
it slides across the Central Plains. This closed low will undergo
cyclogenesis and lead to a surface low developing while tracking
through the Central US on Sunday night. The surface low will
continue to track due east crossing somewhere between the southern
Delmarva and eastern North Carolina by Monday afternoon.
The biggest challenge that still persists at this time is with
regard to the track of the surface low and where it will be as it
crosses through the area. While the majority of ensemble guidance
has shown a southern shift over the past 12-24 hours with QPF,
looking at the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and
mesoscale features, it seems that the overall consensus of the track
seems to be too far south. Depending on the strength of the system
as it approaches and confluence that lingers over the Northeast US,
will simply determine how far north the snow shield reaches. Have
started to see some waffling back and forth with the 12Z guidance,
so don`t completely buy the entire southern shift. Unfortunately,
there is still a lot of uncertainty amongst global guidance, where
the greatest potential for higher-level impacts remains over the
southern-half of the forecast area.
With all this in mind, the forecast this afternoon features a
solution that incorporates warning level snowfall for areas around
Philadelphia and points south. The highest snowfall amounts will end
up being located within a frontogenetic band where SLRs will be
locally higher under an area of enhanced snowfall. The confidence is
rather low on where this FGEN band will set-up over the region
though. Based on latest 700-850 mb frontogenesis progs, the greatest
likelihood will be somewhere between the Philly metro and central
Delaware. In fact, some of the hi-res guidance that has come in this
afternoon shows a warm nose between 850-925 mb that creeps northward
during the day on Monday into portions of the Eastern Shore of
Maryland and southern Delaware. This would result in some potential
mixing issues in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain which will
drastically undercut snow totals, with the heaviest snow totals
located just north of the mixing line.
Upon discussion with neighboring offices and given the overall
uncertainty, have opted to not issue any Winter Weather headlines
with this forecast package. In terms of snowfall amounts, our
initial forecast is for a 4-6 inch snowfall event for areas on a
line from I-76 to I-195 and points south, including the Philadelphia
metro. Within this area, will be a localized maxima of 6-8+ inches
depending on where the frontogenetic banding sets up. Between the
I-80 and I-76/I-195 corridor, expecting totals in the 2-4 inch
range with totals less than 2 inches to the north of I-80. There
will be a sharp northern gradient to the snowfall due to confluence
and dry air off to the north, so some of these totals may be slightly
too high.
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I just got a generac whole house installed 4 weeks ago. NJ will never lose power again.
I was hoping Wisconsin would be snowed in on Sunday cancelling the game on Monday to a later date when Harper would be healthy enough to play.Right now Wisconsin is destroying Iowa 100-74 with 17 three pointers.
Snow's coming on Monday: NWS says 4-6" S of 276/195 (with lollipops of 6-8" where the best bands set up), 2-4" from 276/195 to 80 and 0-2" N of 80, but most models say less, so color me a bit skeptical, but hopeful. Other weather sources are less optimistic for snow, especially N of 276/195, with many only having 1-2" for most of CNJ, for example.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Been out all day, so haven't had time to go through all of the models and reasoning, but not a single major model has as much snow as the NWS is predicting for north of 276/195, although note that most models do have at least 2-4" along 276/195 with more south of there, so not as skeptical on the 4-6" forecast of snow for SNJ/SEPA.
Some models have <1" for CNJ (276/195 up to 78), while others have 1-3" and only one (the GFS) has 2-4", but the NWS isn't really going by the models, as per their discussion, below. Basically, they feel the models are overdoing the suppression of the approaching storm too far to the south, based on their analysis of the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and mesoscale features, but they do acknowledge that there is significant bust risk for areas N of 276/195, as the confluence of cold/dry air from the NE might still keep the snow to the south. We'll see soon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Our attention then turns to the winter storm potential that will
impact the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night through Monday,
possibly lingering into Monday night. A potent shortwave ejecting
out of the Rocky Mountain region will develop into a closed low as
it slides across the Central Plains. This closed low will undergo
cyclogenesis and lead to a surface low developing while tracking
through the Central US on Sunday night. The surface low will
continue to track due east crossing somewhere between the southern
Delmarva and eastern North Carolina by Monday afternoon.
The biggest challenge that still persists at this time is with
regard to the track of the surface low and where it will be as it
crosses through the area. While the majority of ensemble guidance
has shown a southern shift over the past 12-24 hours with QPF,
looking at the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and
mesoscale features, it seems that the overall consensus of the track
seems to be too far south. Depending on the strength of the system
as it approaches and confluence that lingers over the Northeast US,
will simply determine how far north the snow shield reaches. Have
started to see some waffling back and forth with the 12Z guidance,
so don`t completely buy the entire southern shift. Unfortunately,
there is still a lot of uncertainty amongst global guidance, where
the greatest potential for higher-level impacts remains over the
southern-half of the forecast area.
With all this in mind, the forecast this afternoon features a
solution that incorporates warning level snowfall for areas around
Philadelphia and points south. The highest snowfall amounts will end
up being located within a frontogenetic band where SLRs will be
locally higher under an area of enhanced snowfall. The confidence is
rather low on where this FGEN band will set-up over the region
though. Based on latest 700-850 mb frontogenesis progs, the greatest
likelihood will be somewhere between the Philly metro and central
Delaware. In fact, some of the hi-res guidance that has come in this
afternoon shows a warm nose between 850-925 mb that creeps northward
during the day on Monday into portions of the Eastern Shore of
Maryland and southern Delaware. This would result in some potential
mixing issues in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain which will
drastically undercut snow totals, with the heaviest snow totals
located just north of the mixing line.
Upon discussion with neighboring offices and given the overall
uncertainty, have opted to not issue any Winter Weather headlines
with this forecast package. In terms of snowfall amounts, our
initial forecast is for a 4-6 inch snowfall event for areas on a
line from I-76 to I-195 and points south, including the Philadelphia
metro. Within this area, will be a localized maxima of 6-8+ inches
depending on where the frontogenetic banding sets up. Between the
I-80 and I-76/I-195 corridor, expecting totals in the 2-4 inch
range with totals less than 2 inches to the north of I-80. There
will be a sharp northern gradient to the snowfall due to confluence
and dry air off to the north, so some of these totals may be slightly
too high.
The cut off gradient in systems like this are usually large in just a 25 mile spread
What type of snow are we talking for Monday?
Light / fluffy or wet stuff?
Need to decide if it’s worth making the trek up to the game on Monday from South Jersey.
Light / fluffy or wet stuff?
Need to decide if it’s worth making the trek up to the game on Monday from South Jersey.
I was just telling the story yesterday about the guy in your area who made a whole living off of installing generacs after Sandy and Irene
If the bigger snow amounts are tracking south, the snow up north should be relatively light and dry.
Well according to our resident meteorologist here he says by game time the lot will be all clear there should be no reason why anyone can't be there
Snow's coming on Monday: NWS says 4-6" S of 276/195 (with lollipops of 6-8" where the best bands set up), 2-4" from 276/195 to 80 and 0-2" N of 80, but most models say less, so color me a bit skeptical, but hopeful. Other weather sources are less optimistic for snow, especially N of 276/195, with many only having 1-2" for most of CNJ, for example.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Been out all day, so haven't had time to go through all of the models and reasoning, but not a single major model has as much snow as the NWS is predicting for north of 276/195, although note that most models do have at least 2-4" along 276/195 with more south of there, so not as skeptical on the 4-6" forecast of snow for SNJ/SEPA.
Some models have <1" for CNJ (276/195 up to 78), while others have 1-3" and only one (the GFS) has 2-4", but the NWS isn't really going by the models, as per their discussion, below. Basically, they feel the models are overdoing the suppression of the approaching storm too far to the south, based on their analysis of the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and mesoscale features, but they do acknowledge that there is significant bust risk for areas N of 276/195, as the confluence of cold/dry air from the NE might still keep the snow to the south. We'll see soon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Our attention then turns to the winter storm potential that will
impact the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night through Monday,
possibly lingering into Monday night. A potent shortwave ejecting
out of the Rocky Mountain region will develop into a closed low as
it slides across the Central Plains. This closed low will undergo
cyclogenesis and lead to a surface low developing while tracking
through the Central US on Sunday night. The surface low will
continue to track due east crossing somewhere between the southern
Delmarva and eastern North Carolina by Monday afternoon.
The biggest challenge that still persists at this time is with
regard to the track of the surface low and where it will be as it
crosses through the area. While the majority of ensemble guidance
has shown a southern shift over the past 12-24 hours with QPF,
looking at the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and
mesoscale features, it seems that the overall consensus of the track
seems to be too far south. Depending on the strength of the system
as it approaches and confluence that lingers over the Northeast US,
will simply determine how far north the snow shield reaches. Have
started to see some waffling back and forth with the 12Z guidance,
so don`t completely buy the entire southern shift. Unfortunately,
there is still a lot of uncertainty amongst global guidance, where
the greatest potential for higher-level impacts remains over the
southern-half of the forecast area.
With all this in mind, the forecast this afternoon features a
solution that incorporates warning level snowfall for areas around
Philadelphia and points south. The highest snowfall amounts will end
up being located within a frontogenetic band where SLRs will be
locally higher under an area of enhanced snowfall. The confidence is
rather low on where this FGEN band will set-up over the region
though. Based on latest 700-850 mb frontogenesis progs, the greatest
likelihood will be somewhere between the Philly metro and central
Delaware. In fact, some of the hi-res guidance that has come in this
afternoon shows a warm nose between 850-925 mb that creeps northward
during the day on Monday into portions of the Eastern Shore of
Maryland and southern Delaware. This would result in some potential
mixing issues in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain which will
drastically undercut snow totals, with the heaviest snow totals
located just north of the mixing line.
Upon discussion with neighboring offices and given the overall
uncertainty, have opted to not issue any Winter Weather headlines
with this forecast package. In terms of snowfall amounts, our
initial forecast is for a 4-6 inch snowfall event for areas on a
line from I-76 to I-195 and points south, including the Philadelphia
metro. Within this area, will be a localized maxima of 6-8+ inches
depending on where the frontogenetic banding sets up. Between the
I-80 and I-76/I-195 corridor, expecting totals in the 2-4 inch
range with totals less than 2 inches to the north of I-80. There
will be a sharp northern gradient to the snowfall due to confluence
and dry air off to the north, so some of these totals may be slightly
too high.
Well, the 0Z models tonight have the Fat Lady warming up, cause it's almost over for more than 2-3" anywhere N of 276/195 and especially N of 78 and even Philly/SNJ are seeing significant drops in snowfall on most models, as the suppression from that rotating TPV (tropospheric polar vortex) lobe just as the storm reaches our area is drying the atmosphere up and shunting most of the moisture to the south. I would be very surprised if the NWS didn't back off at least some in their snowfall forecasts, but probably not too far, as they don't like to jump too far based on one model suite, which makes sense.
While it looks to be over for more than 2" N of 78 and maybe even for most of CNJ, based on the 0Z models, there's still time for minor shifts back north to make that happen, especially as subsequent runs tomorrow will have everything for the storm in Cali fully sampled (better input data). But it's quite possible CNJ sees nothing more than flurries, but there's still enough time for a few inches here, given that the gradient is so steep and the 2-3" amounts still aren't that far away (25-50 miles).
Just looking at the model outputs for CNJ, since I have to get up at 5 am and drive to Mt. Kisco for an all day disc golf tourney in the cold and wind and am then seeing Willie Nile at the Avenel Performing Arts Center (a very cool venue, by the way), the CMC and RGEM still have 1-2", GFS has about an inch, and the Euro/NAM/ICON have an inch or so for the southern half of CNJ with <1" for the rest of CNJ and the UK/ICON have essentially nada, but there is still 2-4" on the SREFs, which are usually overdone. Even Philly/SNJ is down to 2-4" on most of the models and there's nada north of 80 on any model. Anyway, see y'all tomorrow night.
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FWIW, a winter storm watch has been issued for Burlington/Ocean counties south for 3-6 inches. That's less than the forecast discussion (which hasn't been updated) predicted last evening. We'll see if the NWS backs off further.
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