why are us retired guys up in the middle of the night looking at a weather thread on a football site lol...
OT: Minor to Moderate Snow Possible on Monday, 1/6 (uncertainty high); also 1-2" Fri, 1/3 Philly to AC and SW of there
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
'cause we old guys don't sleep well! And because we know that the info here is more current than we can find anywhere else!
Models have generally trended back north a bit with a little more snowfall at 6Z and the NWS did drop snowfall amounts a decent amount; here's the latest map. Gotta run.
Bottom line as of current modelling north of Trenton its not a major or even moderate event...minor or possible nuisance event
Devil will be in the details to be worked out.
Devil will be in the details to be worked out.
they are sounding the alarm in south jersey and philly areas...watches have been hoisted
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen
Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic
Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Including the cities of Dover, Chestertown, Hammonton, Ocean
City, Centreville, Atlantic City, Millville, Pennsville,
Wilmington, Rehoboth Beach, Georgetown, Easton, Cape May Court
House, and Denton
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
9 inches possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware,
northeast Maryland, and southern New Jersey.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
taper off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
&&
$$
NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Mount Holly, Long Beach Island, Camden,
Oxford, West Chester, Philadelphia, Lansdale, Kennett Square,
Moorestown, Jackson, Cherry Hill, Wharton State Forest,
Glassboro, Media, Honey Brook, and Norristown
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
6 inches possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
taper off Monday night.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen
Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic
Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Including the cities of Dover, Chestertown, Hammonton, Ocean
City, Centreville, Atlantic City, Millville, Pennsville,
Wilmington, Rehoboth Beach, Georgetown, Easton, Cape May Court
House, and Denton
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
9 inches possible.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware,
northeast Maryland, and southern New Jersey.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
taper off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
&&
$$
NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Mount Holly, Long Beach Island, Camden,
Oxford, West Chester, Philadelphia, Lansdale, Kennett Square,
Moorestown, Jackson, Cherry Hill, Wharton State Forest,
Glassboro, Media, Honey Brook, and Norristown
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
6 inches possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
taper off Monday night.
However, by Sunday evening, clouds start moving in from the
southwest as a relatively potent wave of low pressure crosses
the country and approaches our region. Dry and cold conditions
prevail during the evening, but after midnight, snow will likely
quickly overspread areas south of Philadelphia. More questions
arise further north, where drier air and a slightly more
southerly storm track make the progress of the snow a little
more questionable. Thus, held likely and definite POPs back
toward morning in these areas.
Steadiest and heaviest snow looks to move through with the warm
advection burst in the morning, likely coinciding with the rush
hour from Philly on south and west, but possibly waiting until
just after rush hour further north and east. Have widespread
likely to categorical POPs, though the northernmost parts of NJ
are kept in chance pops as there is significant uncertainty as
to whether the snow ever makes it up there. Meanwhile, enough
warm air will try to move northwest off the ocean to change
parts of Delaware and perhaps far southern NJ over to rain.
Fortunately, at this moment freezing rain doesn`t look like a
big concern, but we`ll have to watch for that potential,
possibly in a relatively narrow and difficult to forecast swath
around the transition zone.
Snow begins to lessen in intensity during the afternoon and may
in fact stop across northern areas by evening, but a second
round may occur especially in southern locales as the upper
level trough moves through during the night. After that, snow
should taper across the board overnight and as the low
intensifies off the coast, winds will start to pick up from the
northwest.
Compared to the prior forecast, totals were shifted southward a
bit as the overall storm track is a bit more southerly on this
set of guidance. However, its quite possible it shifts back
north next cycle, so was a bit generous with the coverage of the
winter storm watch when comparing it to actual forecast totals,
which even at this stage I wouldn`t take as anywhere close to
being in stone. A bit of shifting can still mean several inches
of difference, especially around Philly and points north
southwest as a relatively potent wave of low pressure crosses
the country and approaches our region. Dry and cold conditions
prevail during the evening, but after midnight, snow will likely
quickly overspread areas south of Philadelphia. More questions
arise further north, where drier air and a slightly more
southerly storm track make the progress of the snow a little
more questionable. Thus, held likely and definite POPs back
toward morning in these areas.
Steadiest and heaviest snow looks to move through with the warm
advection burst in the morning, likely coinciding with the rush
hour from Philly on south and west, but possibly waiting until
just after rush hour further north and east. Have widespread
likely to categorical POPs, though the northernmost parts of NJ
are kept in chance pops as there is significant uncertainty as
to whether the snow ever makes it up there. Meanwhile, enough
warm air will try to move northwest off the ocean to change
parts of Delaware and perhaps far southern NJ over to rain.
Fortunately, at this moment freezing rain doesn`t look like a
big concern, but we`ll have to watch for that potential,
possibly in a relatively narrow and difficult to forecast swath
around the transition zone.
Snow begins to lessen in intensity during the afternoon and may
in fact stop across northern areas by evening, but a second
round may occur especially in southern locales as the upper
level trough moves through during the night. After that, snow
should taper across the board overnight and as the low
intensifies off the coast, winds will start to pick up from the
northwest.
Compared to the prior forecast, totals were shifted southward a
bit as the overall storm track is a bit more southerly on this
set of guidance. However, its quite possible it shifts back
north next cycle, so was a bit generous with the coverage of the
winter storm watch when comparing it to actual forecast totals,
which even at this stage I wouldn`t take as anywhere close to
being in stone. A bit of shifting can still mean several inches
of difference, especially around Philly and points north
the heavier amounts are subject to a bust in southern jersey and philly as there were models that had half or less of nws forecasted snow. The Ukmet had very little even in Philly. Mt Holly certainly bullish in those areas with warning and putting certain areas in south jersey in that 5-9 inch warning
the 12z NAM was a bit north and was actually in line with what Mt Holly is forecasting right now but it is one run and is the snowiest model right now and of course has its tendency to be overamped as well
the 12z NAM was a bit north and was actually in line with what Mt Holly is forecasting right now but it is one run and is the snowiest model right now and of course has its tendency to be overamped as well
for comparison here was the 6z gfs...you see how tragic that is for snow lovers for much of NJ.....the 12z coming out soon so does it move toward the nam or hold serve
the 6z Ukie was weenie suicide for Philly....a total whiff here which remains on the table...thats why when you see Numbers post 4-6 day model outputs with stuff like likely...take it with a grain of salt...models are useless beyond 3 days out besides indicating a storm signal
Brutal run for snow lovers…I’m distraught, not. But it is the UK…the 6z Ukie was weenie suicide for Philly....a total whiff here which remains on the table...thats why when you see Numbers post 4-6 day model outputs with stuff like likely...take it with a grain of salt...models are useless beyond 3 days out besides indicating a storm signal
Looks like this is another completely pointless weather thread.the 6z Ukie was weenie suicide for Philly....a total whiff here which remains on the table...thats why when you see Numbers post 4-6 day model outputs with stuff like likely...take it with a grain of salt...models are useless beyond 3 days out besides indicating a storm signal
12z GFS was better than the 6z...giving close to an inch north of trenton and giving 2 inches while 6z was just about an inch. Philly gets 3. Still focusing everything to the south but better than most models and at least keeping "some snow" on the table for central jersey
bahahahahaahahahahahaha let the hype begin
Wait until number sees this who be tracking all week making predictions but saying it's too early though it's too early though
NAM....18z run..continues to be the snowiest outlier and even that isnt alot for anybody north of Princeton
well just to note that includes any snow that might fall the following week as wellLOL
NAM....18z run..continues to be the snowiest outlier and even that isnt alot for anybody north of Princeton
Yes, but if I'm reading these maps right, we in South Jersey are still forecast to get a lot -- maybe close to a foot. Of course, a lot can change and this is only one model.NAM....18z run..continues to be the snowiest outlier and even that isnt alot for anybody north of Princeton
Latest disco
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The big concern for this part of the forecast will be the storm
system expected to bring snow to a large part of the region
later Sunday night through Monday into Monday night. A Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect basically for areas from
Philadelphia southward. This runs from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM
Tuesday. In terms of the latest forecast and trends/changes,
there have not been large changes in the model guidance since
last night. The GFS and the NAM are forecasting a low that
tracks a little farther north and moves a little slower than
what is depicted by the GEM and the ECMWF and this has
implications regarding forecast QPF and snow amounts, especially
over portions of northern Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ
where there will likely be a sharp south to north gradient in
amounts (higher QPF and snowfall farther south, lower north). It
appears these differences in the guidance are due to how
exactly the upper trough supporting the system evolves as it
moves east. If it "fractures" more, as alluded to models like
the RGEM, this could lead to the system being more surpressed
south with the higher amounts. We stayed close to a model blend
with this update and our overall forecast amounts have not
changed much except over portions of NE PA and NW NJ where they
were lowered some. We are now reasonably confident that the more
significant snow will stay south of the I-78 corridor with
these areas in our northern zones only seeing at most around a
couple inches. The tricky zone remains near the Mason Dixon line
into SE PA and southern NJ as the gradient will likely be sharp
between higher snow amounts (5-10 inches) to the south and
lower amounts (3 to 5 inches) to the north. As such, the
forecast is still not set in stone as small changes in forecast
track of the storm will mean potentially large changes in total
snow amounts around these areas.
In terms of the forecast details, skies cloud over through
Sunday evening with snow beginning to move in after midnight
from SW to NE. This will occur as an area of low pressure driven
by a fairly potent wave aloft moves eastward through the night
across Tennessee and Kentucky.
The steadiest and heaviest snow looks to move through with the
warm advection burst in the morning, likely coinciding with the
rush hour from Philly on south and west, but possibly waiting
until just after rush hour farther north and east. Worth noting,
there are indications of strong mid level frontogenesis setting
up which, when combined with the WAA and PVA, could lead to
heavier banded snow setting up with rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Tough to say exactly where this occurs by likely over
Delmarva or extreme SE PA into southern NJ. Also, as the low
tracks eastward toward SE Virginia through the day, the WAA
pattern will be bringing in some milder air. This may result in
a mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain, or even rain for
areas roughly from around Dover DE southward and also in Cape
May County NJ. This could keep snowfall amounts down here.
Snow begins to lessen in intensity during the afternoon and may
in fact stop across northern areas by evening, but a second
round looks increasingly likely to occur Monday night over
portions of Delmarva into southern NJ as the upper level trough
moves through during the night. After that, snow should taper
across the board by late at night and as the low intensifies
off the coast, winds will start to pick up from the northwest.
Forecast storm total snow amounts range from 5 to 10 inches
across most of our Delmarva zones into extreme southern NJ with
around 3 to 6 inches over SE PA into adjacent portion of NJ with
1 to 3 inches north of this zone towards the I-78 corridor.
Extreme northern parts of the CWA across the Poconos into NW NJ
may not even see this much. Following highs Monday in the 20s to
low 30s, lows Monday night look to be in the teens to low
20s. Worth noting though, with the wind chill it will feel a
good 10+ degrees colder as the winds increase and this will also
likely lead to some blowing and drifting snow.
Tuesday will be dry under a mix of sun and clouds but very windy
and cold as there will be a strong pressure gradient between the
low that will now be over Atlantic Canada and expansive high
pressure to our west. Generally expect winds 15 to 20 gusting up
to 30 mph leading to blowing/drifting snow and bitter wind
chills. Highs are forecast to be mainly in the upper 20s to low
30s but again, it will feel a good 10+ degrees colder than the
actual temp due to the wind chill.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The big concern for this part of the forecast will be the storm
system expected to bring snow to a large part of the region
later Sunday night through Monday into Monday night. A Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect basically for areas from
Philadelphia southward. This runs from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM
Tuesday. In terms of the latest forecast and trends/changes,
there have not been large changes in the model guidance since
last night. The GFS and the NAM are forecasting a low that
tracks a little farther north and moves a little slower than
what is depicted by the GEM and the ECMWF and this has
implications regarding forecast QPF and snow amounts, especially
over portions of northern Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ
where there will likely be a sharp south to north gradient in
amounts (higher QPF and snowfall farther south, lower north). It
appears these differences in the guidance are due to how
exactly the upper trough supporting the system evolves as it
moves east. If it "fractures" more, as alluded to models like
the RGEM, this could lead to the system being more surpressed
south with the higher amounts. We stayed close to a model blend
with this update and our overall forecast amounts have not
changed much except over portions of NE PA and NW NJ where they
were lowered some. We are now reasonably confident that the more
significant snow will stay south of the I-78 corridor with
these areas in our northern zones only seeing at most around a
couple inches. The tricky zone remains near the Mason Dixon line
into SE PA and southern NJ as the gradient will likely be sharp
between higher snow amounts (5-10 inches) to the south and
lower amounts (3 to 5 inches) to the north. As such, the
forecast is still not set in stone as small changes in forecast
track of the storm will mean potentially large changes in total
snow amounts around these areas.
In terms of the forecast details, skies cloud over through
Sunday evening with snow beginning to move in after midnight
from SW to NE. This will occur as an area of low pressure driven
by a fairly potent wave aloft moves eastward through the night
across Tennessee and Kentucky.
The steadiest and heaviest snow looks to move through with the
warm advection burst in the morning, likely coinciding with the
rush hour from Philly on south and west, but possibly waiting
until just after rush hour farther north and east. Worth noting,
there are indications of strong mid level frontogenesis setting
up which, when combined with the WAA and PVA, could lead to
heavier banded snow setting up with rates exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Tough to say exactly where this occurs by likely over
Delmarva or extreme SE PA into southern NJ. Also, as the low
tracks eastward toward SE Virginia through the day, the WAA
pattern will be bringing in some milder air. This may result in
a mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain, or even rain for
areas roughly from around Dover DE southward and also in Cape
May County NJ. This could keep snowfall amounts down here.
Snow begins to lessen in intensity during the afternoon and may
in fact stop across northern areas by evening, but a second
round looks increasingly likely to occur Monday night over
portions of Delmarva into southern NJ as the upper level trough
moves through during the night. After that, snow should taper
across the board by late at night and as the low intensifies
off the coast, winds will start to pick up from the northwest.
Forecast storm total snow amounts range from 5 to 10 inches
across most of our Delmarva zones into extreme southern NJ with
around 3 to 6 inches over SE PA into adjacent portion of NJ with
1 to 3 inches north of this zone towards the I-78 corridor.
Extreme northern parts of the CWA across the Poconos into NW NJ
may not even see this much. Following highs Monday in the 20s to
low 30s, lows Monday night look to be in the teens to low
20s. Worth noting though, with the wind chill it will feel a
good 10+ degrees colder as the winds increase and this will also
likely lead to some blowing and drifting snow.
Tuesday will be dry under a mix of sun and clouds but very windy
and cold as there will be a strong pressure gradient between the
low that will now be over Atlantic Canada and expansive high
pressure to our west. Generally expect winds 15 to 20 gusting up
to 30 mph leading to blowing/drifting snow and bitter wind
chills. Highs are forecast to be mainly in the upper 20s to low
30s but again, it will feel a good 10+ degrees colder than the
actual temp due to the wind chill.
Just got back. The NWS updated their regional snowmap (I love these as they show Mt. Holly and nearby adjacent areas). Based on the 12Z runs, they clearly backed off for snow north of 276/195 in EPA/CNJ (the 3" line was along there, but that's now 2"), especially N of 78 which is <1" but beefed snowfall up a bit for Philly/SNJ and south of there with the 4" line moving 15-20 miles north to a Philly to LBI line. Still lots of uncertainty and bust potential in both directions.Models have generally trended back north a bit with a little more snowfall at 6Z and the NWS did drop snowfall amounts a decent amount; here's the latest map. Gotta run.
Dan says-
❄ The general feedback about my Monday snow forecast from earlier today is that I went too high, especially as models have backed off snow totals a bit. However, that was a tactical decision based on how I think things will trend. The big dome of cold, dry air is absolutely going to suppress snowfall and try to steer this storm south of NJ. But the "fluff factor" is really important here. And check out the NAM 10:1 model forecast - still aggressive on mesoscale heavy snow banding in South Jersey. I still like my 4-8" forecast for South Jersey for now. (Instead of a Bordentown-Toms River line, I might have put the northern edge of highest totals around Camden-Atlantic City. Something to consider for my next full update.)
You're posting this? Seriously? I can't even begin to imagine what the weather trolls (and you) would say if I posted that, even in the pattern thread, although the first big potential storm is 1/11, which has shown up off and on as a big storm for over a week, but 7 days out isn't quite fantasy land any more. Here's what it would look like for just the first storm next Saturday, mostly - the amounts are a fantasy, but getting a moderate to significant snowstorm is not.bahahahahaahahahahahaha let the hype begin
bahahahahaahahahahahaha let the hype begin
Boys,You're posting this? Seriously? I can't even begin to imagine what the weather trolls (and you) would say if I posted that, even in the pattern thread, although the first big potential storm is 1/11, which has shown up off and on as a big storm for over a week, but 7 days out isn't quite fantasy land any more. Here's what it would look like for just the first storm next Saturday, mostly - the amounts are a fantasy, but getting a moderate to significant snowstorm is not.
You know the rules. 🤨
