OT: Minor to Moderate Snow Possible on Monday, 1/6 (uncertainty high); also 1-2" Fri, 1/3 Philly to AC and SW of there
- Thread starter RU848789
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Dude, I am hurt, offended, upset, apoplectic, sad and pissed you picked on my thread, when you have the posts of #s' and bac above loaded with incomprehensible weather jargon. 😉 Seriously- wtf is DISCO- isn't that a dance people did in the 70s after doing lots of blow? But I digress.
A WAA event is when snow does not materialize and @RU848789 goes WAA. 😜 Before our esteemed amateur meteorologists chime in, everyone knows it refers to a Warm Air Advection - the advection (movement) of warm air into a region. That's what is going on. It was actually pretty well-laid out in his post on X. BTW, I think @RU848789 knows Mike Mostwill. Here's a weather glossary for ya--there will be a quiz after the fighting is done in this thread.
Can Pike compress the zone and modestly modulate some outside scoring ???
The bigger "rule" is to not post fantasy storm snowfall maps from over a week out. Should this still look like a potential winter storm 2-3 days from now, when modeling has at least some accuracy (as opposed to 7-8 days out), you'll see a thread. Fantasy maps and "major blizzard" posts/videos 13 days out are what clickbait purveyors post all over social media, which has really lowered the level of quality of discussion about almost every scientific topic.
Mike is one of the cofounders of 33andrain (was a forum, now a Discord site; he's CCB there) and a very good amateur meteorologist.
Wait, so is that what you want? I could start posting all kinds of crazy long-range crap that has little basis in reality, including every fantasy snowfall map that comes out (I guarantee you I see more of them than almost anyone, but I never post them).
May I ask a couple of stupid questions from a member of Acryonyms-Challenged Anonymous?
CCB?
Discord? (Dischord is a great record label BTW)
Nah. It's gonna a bunch of WAA events for RU fans, and it will be raining threes!!
CCB is cold conveyor belt, a mechanism by which heavy snows can develop NW of a low pressure system like a nor'easter. Discord servers are the "newfangled" message boards that many consider "better" since they incorporate text, video and audio. There are channels of all kinds hosted in the Discord environment, including 33andrain, which used to be a standard message board.
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/l7_p7.html#:~:text=(Right)%20The%20cold%20conveyor%20belt%20associated%20with,heavy%20snow%20northwest%20of%20the%20low's%20center.
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Channel 7 has a bit less than the NBM/TWC with the 1" line along 78 and they have a 3" line a little further south of 276/195 and 3-6" south of that line.
I have to give Channel 7 credit, as they haven't wavered in their snowfall forecast since they first posted it Thursday afternoon, as per the graphic in the post above. If I were to draw a map right now with the very imperfect info we have from wildly divergent models, I'd probably draw something close to this. I think most of CNJ will get 1-2", but that's still a guess until we start to see better model consensus, which has to come sooner or later (maybe later, lol, as all models are nearly perfect in predicting the weather 30 minutes into the future).
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Wow! 2-4 feet is gonna be nuts! Bring it on!bahahahahaahahahahahaha let the hype begin
Just got back. The NWS updated their regional snowmap (I love these as they show Mt. Holly and nearby adjacent areas). Based on the 12Z runs, they clearly backed off for snow north of 276/195 in EPA/CNJ (the 3" line was along there, but that's now 2"), especially N of 78 which is <1" but beefed snowfall up a bit for Philly/SNJ and south of there with the 4" line moving 15-20 miles north to a Philly to LBI line. Still lots of uncertainty and bust potential in both directions.
Very interesting that the NWS bumped snowfall back up for areas N of 276/195, including CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC, with their 4 am forecast, as per the map below; it's fairly similar to the Channel 7 forecast in the post above. Their 1" line moved from just south of 78 to about 80, except for NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson) and NYC/LI, where <1" is forecast, and their 2" line is now from about Frenchtown to Sea Bright and the 3" line is along 276/195 (was 10-15 miles south of there); south of that 3" line very little change. The NWS discussion doesn't have the usual "model discussion" section at 4 am. In contrast, TWC has the 1" line along 276/195 with <1" north of there and the 3" line from about Wilmington to AC, as do others, while News12NJ is between the two camps with their 1" line from about Frenchtown to Sea Bright and their 3" line from Philly to LBI with 3-6" south of there.
Bust potential is pretty high, IMO, as the global models at 0Z last night and 6Z this morning continue to show much less snow than this across the board, with generally <1" N of 276/195 and even only an inch or two for the Phillly/SNJ area; they must be leaning more towards the meso/CAM models, like the NAM3K, HRRR, RAP, SRERs, etc., which show amounts similar to the NWS map (or even more). From a meteorological perspective, this is a fascinating conundrum to have these two camps so far apart, but from a "client" perspective it's very frustrating to have such low confidence in the NWS forecast.
Also, warnings are up for 4-6" for SEPA/SNJ and south of there (where up to 6-8" are forecast south of Wilmington to AC), while advisories are up for 2-4" for Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly proper and for NW Burlington/Ocean.
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So great...the first storm hyped 5-6 days ago fails to deliver the initial amounts so he takes his anger out on a 15 day total snowmap
The whole point is anything beyond 3 days out isnt really worthy...and everyone knows it. Happens every storm
The whole point is anything beyond 3 days out isnt really worthy...and everyone knows it. Happens every storm
Looks like lots may be slick by afternoon. Though my TWC forcast is for some snow showers with acc of less than an inch.
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And then trudge over slippery sidewalks because they will not let you walk through the Barnabas Performance Center.
yeah another total bullshit to **** over the supporters in a move to acquiesce paid players and handlers
dont worry Sweet Pea will leave a trail
No anger, just pointing out your incredible hypocrisy in slamming me whenever I post something even 5 days out and you posting that ridiculous 16-day GFS snowfall map.
And for the record, below is what I said in the first post in the thread, early Thursday (which isn't too different from the NWS forecast now), which is 3 days ago, not 5-6. Try to at least be accurate if you're going to criticize me.
"The NBM shows 1-2" along and N of 80 (including NYC) increasing as one goes south to 3-4" along 276/195 and more south of there, which would mean 2-3" for most of CNJ. Snow fans would certainly take that, considering things were looking like <1" for most folks N of 276/195 until this evening's shift north in the precip/snow shield seen on most models. <1" and 4-6" are still on the table for areas between 276/195 and 78."
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.250106T0300Z-250107T0900Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Denton, Centreville,
Chestertown, Easton, and Rehoboth Beach
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
10 inches. The snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain for a
time, producing a light glaze.
* WHERE...Portions of central and southern Delaware and northeast
Maryland.
* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning, potentially coming
down in excess of 1 inch per hour. The mixture potential with
freezing rain and sleet will occur Monday afternoon as
precipitation begins to lighten. It will then change back to all
snow before gradually tapering off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
DEZ001-NJZ016-021-023-024-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
New Castle-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Including the cities of Cape May Court House, Wilmington,
Pennsville, Millville, and Ocean City
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
8 inches.
* WHERE...In Delaware, New Castle County. In New Jersey, Atlantic
Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem Counties.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning, potentially coming
down in excess of 1 inch per hour. It will then gradually taper
off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ017-018-022-025-027-PAZ070-102-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Eastern Chester-
Including the cities of Wharton State Forest, Hammonton, Atlantic
City, Kennett Square, Glassboro, Media, Camden, Cherry Hill, and
West Chester
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
6 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning, potentially coming
down at rates approaching 1 inch per hour for a brief period. It
will then gradually taper off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ019-020-026-PAZ060-071-101-103-104-106-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.250106T0600Z-250107T0300Z/
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Norristown, Jackson, Mount
Holly, Collegeville, Lansdale, Moorestown, Reading, Philadelphia,
Long Beach Island, Morrisville, Oxford, Doylestown, and Pottstown
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and east central and
southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning. It will then gradually
taper off Monday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.250106T0300Z-250107T0900Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Denton, Centreville,
Chestertown, Easton, and Rehoboth Beach
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
10 inches. The snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain for a
time, producing a light glaze.
* WHERE...Portions of central and southern Delaware and northeast
Maryland.
* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning, potentially coming
down in excess of 1 inch per hour. The mixture potential with
freezing rain and sleet will occur Monday afternoon as
precipitation begins to lighten. It will then change back to all
snow before gradually tapering off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
DEZ001-NJZ016-021-023-024-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
New Castle-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Including the cities of Cape May Court House, Wilmington,
Pennsville, Millville, and Ocean City
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
8 inches.
* WHERE...In Delaware, New Castle County. In New Jersey, Atlantic
Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem Counties.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning, potentially coming
down in excess of 1 inch per hour. It will then gradually taper
off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ017-018-022-025-027-PAZ070-102-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Eastern Chester-
Including the cities of Wharton State Forest, Hammonton, Atlantic
City, Kennett Square, Glassboro, Media, Camden, Cherry Hill, and
West Chester
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
6 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning, potentially coming
down at rates approaching 1 inch per hour for a brief period. It
will then gradually taper off Monday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
NJZ019-020-026-PAZ060-071-101-103-104-106-060330-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.250106T0600Z-250107T0300Z/
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Honey Brook, Norristown, Jackson, Mount
Holly, Collegeville, Lansdale, Moorestown, Reading, Philadelphia,
Long Beach Island, Morrisville, Oxford, Doylestown, and Pottstown
916 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and east central and
southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
night and intensify through Monday morning. It will then gradually
taper off Monday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
Maybe I did not read closely enough, but this thread has been relatively civil, but I have a few of the mean girls on ignore to make the weather thread reading experience more informative and pleasant.
Saw what you posted above the "lines" shifting north. Seems here in the Manasquan area, southern border of Ocean County, the NWS prediction has not budged from 1-3". Perhaps the line moved further north of us, but was not paying attention.
Wondering if @koleszar has plans to christen his 5 year old "brand new" snowblower that has been gathering dust in his barn?
12Z NAM and NAM3K and HRRR backed off a fair amount on snow, especially towards Philly, although they're still a lot snowier than most of the globals. Wonder if the mesos/CAMs are starting to cave to the globals today at 12Z. If that's the case, I'd expect to see <1" forecasts for anywhere N of 276/195 (all of CNJ) and maybe 1-2" from there to Philly-AC and 2-4" south of there. If that occurs, the real kick in the head would be for Philly/SNJ which have been expecting a big snowfall of 4-6" or more for days now; we've always been on the edge in CNJ between a few inches and <1", so it's not like getting <1" would be a huge surprise. We'll see of course.
With snow we’ve seen they have trouble forecasting the day before
To my point above we are 15 hours away and the estimates are for anything from 2 inches to 10
Well I plan to at least get mine started today. So hopefully the three of us should be okay.🙂
For 3", we will just use the shovels. Mrs Shift likes shoveling the lower amounts, and we make it a snow date. Such an exciting date!
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Bac and Numbers, thank you for the information you post, it is helpful. What I don't get why does it ALWAYS turn in to BAC ripping Numbers and then the back and forth. All Numbers does is start posting information from the different weather service earlier then you. He doesn't make it up and always says "too far out....". but people like me , appreciate it.
BAC you jump in closer to the event and start posting similar reports but for some reason have to throw negativity towards fellow posters. You are like your idol and always have to be "look at me" .
Anyway, thank you both for posting about snow events, tailgating weather etc.
BAC you jump in closer to the event and start posting similar reports but for some reason have to throw negativity towards fellow posters. You are like your idol and always have to be "look at me" .
Anyway, thank you both for posting about snow events, tailgating weather etc.
We like to park all of cars in a way to make the actual shoveling as painless as possible.
But now with a dog some areas we would just leave for the sun have to taken care of as well…
Amusing that you think Bac is the "look at me" guy.
