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OT: Minor to Moderate Snow Possible on Monday, 1/6 (uncertainty high); also 1-2" Fri, 1/3 Philly to AC and SW of there

Ok, every global has bumped up snowfall amounts at least a bit, so CNJ is not shut out on any of them and Philly has at least 2" on all of them (except 1" on the UK, which is still an outlier, but not nearly as much), although we're only talking 1/2-1" for most in CNJ with up to 1.5-2" as one nears 276/195. I'm using Kuchera for this one, as per Walt Drag's comments on banding likely to produce high ratios.

Point is this appears to be some convergence with the mesoscale/CAM models, which still mostly show more than 1" for CNJ and much more than 2" for Philly/SNJ, especially the HRRR/RAP. At this point, it's time to make a guesstimate, so I'm going with 1.5" at my house in Metuchen, as I like the trend on the globals and think the mesos/CAMs might do better on this storm. Unfortunately <1" is still on the table, but so is 2-4", at my house and for most of CNJ, especially towards 276/195.
Significant delays at EWR tomorrow, or do you think it will be business as usual there?
 
I'm not even gonna bother to getting the snow blower running to make sure it works. Anything less then 3 or 4" it's easier to just shovel IMO for my property. I saw on Americanwx that next weeks 24"+ storm doesn't look as promising lol.
 
Significant delays at EWR tomorrow, or do you think it will be business as usual there?
Delays unlikely from the weather but many other airports to the S and W will have delays which screws up scheduling everywhere.
I'm not even gonna bother to getting the snow blower running to make sure it works. Anything less then 3 or 4" it's easier to just shovel IMO for my property. I saw on Americanwx that next weeks 24"+ storm doesn't look as promising lol.
Broom should work for 3-4" of this fluffy dry stuff... if you get that much...
 
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sorry im acting here as a check to his snow bias which anyone can see most of the time. There are always possibilities, he was ready to shut the door on small amounts 4-5 days out. If you actually read my stuff, its all about saying the models are always changing and not very reliable beyond 3 days out, sometimes even 48 hour or less changes

if you dont like you can put me on ignore. Its a back and forth here...and if you didnt look, it was Numbers who criticized my posting of the 15 day snowmap, before that things have civilized..please call balls and strikes both ways or do not call them at all.

its also not like everyone is not an adult here, are you really melting down and that upset because there are some bickering posts in the thread. Its very easy to scroll past and not get involved but you choose to be part of the bickering here by sniping bac and the post you highlighted brought a poltical figure into the thread for no apparent reason....so save your high moral ground
BAC comes off as a child the way he can not resist criticizing #’s in these threads. Its incredibly annoying. Gotta figure out the mute feature on here.
 
Bac and Numbers, thank you for the information you post, it is helpful. What I don't get why does it ALWAYS turn in to BAC ripping Numbers and then the back and forth. All Numbers does is start posting information from the different weather service earlier then you. He doesn't make it up and always says "too far out....". but people like me , appreciate it.
BAC you jump in closer to the event and start posting similar reports but for some reason have to throw negativity towards fellow posters. You are like your idol and always have to be "look at me" .

Anyway, thank you both for posting about snow events, tailgating weather etc.
It would be great to keep the conversation between the board’s unofficial meteorologists civil. I don’t mind people bickering about sports, because that’s why people go to message boards, but inclement weather can profoundly affect people’s lives and safety, so while disagreements are expected, statements with supporting data are a benefit to all of us.
 
I was just responding directly to BAC's post.................I rarely post, and never in a lengthy fashion........I must of had a NewJerseyHawk posting moment. lol
I was going to say that too. LOL

Which I guess you knew what I meant with the encyclopedic reference. 😉
 
Ok, every global has bumped up snowfall amounts at least a bit, so CNJ is not shut out on any of them and Philly has at least 2" on all of them (except 1" on the UK, which is still an outlier, but not nearly as much), although we're only talking 1/2-1" for most in CNJ with up to 1.5-2" as one nears 276/195. I'm using Kuchera for this one, as per Walt Drag's comments on banding likely to produce high ratios.

Point is this appears to be some convergence with the mesoscale/CAM models, which still mostly show more than 1" for CNJ and much more than 2" for Philly/SNJ, especially the HRRR/RAP. At this point, it's time to make a guesstimate, so I'm going with 1.5" at my house in Metuchen, as I like the trend on the globals and think the mesos/CAMs might do better on this storm. Unfortunately <1" is still on the table, but so is 2-4", at my house and for most of CNJ, especially towards 276/195.
If it helps you can have whatever I'm supposed to get.😀
 
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Down here in Salem county we are not used to being the epicenter for the higher amounts. Tractor supply was roaring this morning. Nearly out of rock salt already
Love Tractor Supply. Have one in Tinton Falls in Monmouth. So much easier and more fun that Home Depot for many things.
 
First, I won't put you on ignore because I actually like your contributions to the board...........you have consistently good takes and information. And, even in these weather threads, your information is good, and objective. Its just seems like you can't wait to jump on numbers when he makes posts in weather threads.....and you brought up it was numbers that criticized your post on the 15 day snowmap........I guarantee that if you were'nt the aggressive party over the years regarding his weather threads, you would likely never see a retort from him, and as far as acting as a check to his snow bias...........WHY????.....who cares if he has a snow bias..........why does there have to be someone who checks that...............that is the very thing you should ignore.......I like his excitement regarding potential snowstorms......we are all intelligent enough to discern what is over excitement/bias as opposed to the vast amount of quality information he posts. Just like the extraordinary work and time you put into your post game analysis and braketology posts, number puts that energy into weather posts...............it really bothers you that much????? And if someone had some weird obsession about ripping your posts, I would be saying the same exact thing to them. You're a tremendous poster on this board, but just tarnish the solid image you have by attacking numbers in this regard (and I know you don't care whether I think you are tarnishing your image lol.................but it would be nice if you just backed off..............I and others don't need a check and balance system in regard to numbers love for winter storms...............continue to do your excellent work as a poster on this board, it would just be great if you stopped commenting negatively or sarcasticly on numbers posts. It would make reading weather threads much more enjoyable, just like its enjoyable to read your post game/braketology posts.
I just think of bac as Weather Cat and @RU848789 as weather Big Dog, and cats and dogs get into scrums every once in a while.
Or it's like the old Point and Counterpoint with Chevy Chase and Jane Curtain.
 
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Here in Cherry Hill we are covered by the warning for 3-6 inches. But the forecast for my zip code is for 2-4. I don't know if that reflects an information disconnect or the fact that my zip code is so close to the border between the warning areas and the advisory areas. It's not a big deal, but it makes it a little harder to plan for tomorrow.
 
That's not because of the snow. It's the first day of the Can Can sale!

The can can sale is awesome this year

Picked up..

Prego Sauce 3 for $3
Bumblebee Tuna 12 for $12
Chi Chi Salsa 3 for $6
Bowl & Basket Beans 8 for $6 although i remember cheaper in the past
Chock Full of Nuts Coffee 2 for $5

Absurdity of 30 pack of Eggs now $15.99

Buy Eggland as you can get them for $4.49 a dozen...still expensive but way better than B&B
 
They just opened one in Warren, but haven’t been yet. What makes it better? I think they have pet stuff.
They have some things the big box stores may not have or greater varieties.

Seems to be a better selection of axes, mauls, etc if you are into chopping wood.

We purchased 2 metal firepits at TS that were pretty nice.

They sell 3/4" thick rubber matts which we used in a couple of flower/plant beds to fix a drainage issue.

They have some unique holiday decorations, especially around Halloween.

There's other stuff I can't think of.
 
Translation:

“He started it!”

And they're off!

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Very interesting that the NWS bumped snowfall back up for areas N of 276/195, including CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC, with their 4 am forecast, as per the map below; it's fairly similar to the Channel 7 forecast in the post above. Their 1" line moved from just south of 78 to about 80, except for NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson) and NYC/LI, where <1" is forecast, and their 2" line is now from about Frenchtown to Sea Bright and the 3" line is along 276/195 (was 10-15 miles south of there); south of that 3" line very little change. The NWS discussion doesn't have the usual "model discussion" section at 4 am. In contrast, TWC has the 1" line along 276/195 with <1" north of there and the 3" line from about Wilmington to AC, as do others, while News12NJ is between the two camps with their 1" line from about Frenchtown to Sea Bright and their 3" line from Philly to LBI with 3-6" south of there.

Bust potential is pretty high, IMO, as the global models at 0Z last night and 6Z this morning continue to show much less snow than this across the board, with generally <1" N of 276/195 and even only an inch or two for the Phillly/SNJ area; they must be leaning more towards the meso/CAM models, like the NAM3K, HRRR, RAP, SRERs, etc., which show amounts similar to the NWS map (or even more). From a meteorological perspective, this is a fascinating conundrum to have these two camps so far apart, but from a "client" perspective it's very frustrating to have such low confidence in the NWS forecast.

Also, warnings are up for 4-6" for SEPA/SNJ and south of there (where up to 6-8" are forecast south of Wilmington to AC), while advisories are up for 2-4" for Lower Bucks/Montco/Philly proper and for NW Burlington/Ocean.

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Updated NWS snow map and discussion below; note that accumulating snow is likely to start before dawn for Philly/SNJ and a couple of hours later in CNJ and is expected to be over by mid-afternoon. Untreated roads will be slick with temps <32F.

NWS updated 4 pm snowfall map is out and it cuts snowfall back just a bit vs. the 4 am package which did look a bit overdone, with the 1" line moving from about 80 to just N of 78 with only 1/2"-1" N of 78, including NENJ and NYC/LI. This also means CNJ is in the 1-2" range for the most part with the 2" line a little N of 276/195 and with the 3" line from just north of Philly to about Toms River, while the 4" line goes from just south of Philly to LBI. The forecast is for 4-6" south of there and then 6-8" south of a Wilmington to AC line. Looks like my 1.5" prediction for Metuchen is solid.

No warning/advisory changes. And bust potential has decreased, given the decrease in snowfall forecast by the NWS and increases in snowfall from the global models at 12Z and 18Z, so far, such that the globals are much closer to the still a bit snowier mesoscale/CAM models like the RAP/HRRR. However, <1" is still possible for CNJ, as is 2-4" if the storm under/overperforms and there are +/- 1-2" risks for SEPA/SNJ depending on how the storm performs. Almost radar time.

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Delays unlikely from the weather but many other airports to the S and W will have delays which screws up scheduling everywhere.
My flight is coming from Tampa to EWR so I’ll hold out hope, but I hear you….weather away from NJ is going to mess with lots of air travel tomorrow.
 
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NWS has upped the totals for Tyler down in Charlottesville, now at 6-8 inches.

People would drive through a blizzard for the Can Can Sale!

Looks like that's gonna be happening in South Jersey tomorrow afternoon!

Or it's like the old Point and Counterpoint with Chevy Chase and Jane Curtain.

Jane, you ignorant slut!
 
Are they supposed to get ice down in VA too? Saw some pink on the forecast maps. Pink is not good, unless you enjoy her music.
 
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The can can sale is awesome this year

Picked up..

Prego Sauce 3 for $3
Bumblebee Tuna 12 for $12
Chi Chi Salsa 3 for $6
Bowl & Basket Beans 8 for $6 although i remember cheaper in the past
Chock Full of Nuts Coffee 2 for $5

Absurdity of 30 pack of Eggs now $15.99

Buy Eggland as you can get them for $4.49 a dozen...still expensive but way better than B&B
We have Acme near my work and they have had 30 pack of large eggs for $4.99 !!

I have 3 packs in my fridge !!
 
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