Dan Zarrow 101.5 FM as of 10am this morning
OT: Minor to Moderate Snow Possible on Monday, 1/6 (uncertainty high); also 1-2" Fri, 1/3 Philly to AC and SW of there
- Thread starter RU848789
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It’s comical and certain posters never learn their lesson. Stop wishcasting days and days out. The problem is he is desperate to start the threads himself that he always PEs possible storms.
You realize he has 230K posts, the most on this site, and I have 63K posts, don't you? Personally, any regular poster is a "look at me" poster, since posts are made for - wait for it - looking at, so I think that term is a little silly.
You were AWOL all day yesterday and I kept the thread alive with important information
If thats look at me i will roll my eyes
Look at me is starting a pattern thread 3 weeks out with no specific event but posting 21 day snow maps
Well out of caution I'm heading out to do some pre salting on a commercial lot. If we get nothing so be it. They can sweep it up and make some ice cream and then watch the RU game tomorrow night.
Is it time for a poll? Kidding, we don't need to go there.
IDK, I just enjoy the threads, and ignore the infighting.
Amazing how weather threads can foment so much infighting. That's why I call the internet "antisocial media."
I had not realized you only had 63K posts. I've been posting for fewer years and have more posts. I need to get a hobby or get more focused at work. I fear that when I retire, I will spend more time on the internet, which is unhealthy.
Well check out some of the timestamps from my other favorite (and now retired) lawyer on here.
That could be you someday…🫨
My old house we sold 3 years ago could fit 10 -12 cars in the driveway so shoveling was no small task the few times we did get snow but I always enjoy shoveling even when we get a big storm. The new home has a 1 car driveway and a small walk so I’m usually done in short order
Before we put an addition on our house it was marketed for “parking for six cars” in the prospectus.
Now we are down to four spots and we use them all.
12Z NAM and NAM3K and HRRR backed off a fair amount on snow, especially towards Philly, although they're still a lot snowier than most of the globals. Wonder if the mesos/CAMs are starting to cave to the globals today at 12Z. If that's the case, I'd expect to see <1" forecasts for anywhere N of 276/195 (all of CNJ) and maybe 1-2" from there to Philly-AC and 2-4" south of there. If that occurs, the real kick in the head would be for Philly/SNJ which have been expecting a big snowfall of 4-6" or more for days now; we've always been on the edge in CNJ between a few inches and <1", so it's not like getting <1" would be a huge surprise. We'll see of course.
And, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other. Let's see how the rest of the 12Z suite plays out, though.
I have zero problem with you keeping the thread alive with useful info as you did, since I had said I'd be gone all day. Thanks. I also only posted one long range snow map from an ensemble run and did that to refute what Tango was posting about a blizzard 13 days out.
The bands in South Jersey are so narrow that it appears that we in Cherry Hill could get anywhere up to eight inches. We have our anniversary dinner scheduled for tomorrow night and we'll just have to see what happens.
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I post less in retirement than I did when I was working. It just seems like more during weather events, when I've always been very active - plus with a lot less snow the past 3 winters, there have been a lot less winter storm threads, lol.
Why don’t you throw the same scorn at Tango for posting maps/videos 10ish days out threatening snowmageddon?
CH could be 2-8" which is a crazy spread. But you should be watching the RU game on TV for your anniversary, lol Happy Anniversary!
That goes for that whole group and we all know the answer why. The hypocrisy is off the charts.
Could everyone please stop the bickering? You are all attributing the worst possible motives to each other. TBH, I thought @bac2therac meant his posting about next week's storm as a joke and nothing more. It is difficult to express oneself precisely on a chatboard, so everyone should give each other the benefit of the doubt in interpreting posts.
Reading this thread makes me think of a Russian novel about a dysfunctional family, maybe Dostoyevsky’s “The Brothers Karamazov.”
Down here in Salem county we are not used to being the epicenter for the higher amounts. Tractor supply was roaring this morning. Nearly out of rock salt already
A little OT but had to share for the absurdity…
Watching WPIX 11 at the gym earlier this morning. No idea why. Anyhow.
Weather guy hyping “massive storm” for next weekend. Like how irresponsible. All show. Then shows snow maps with 2 different models. One had 0.6” for Morris County and the other had 20.8” !!!
Nailed it !!
Stay tuned all week he says. Unbelievable. I guess it’s channel 11….
Watching WPIX 11 at the gym earlier this morning. No idea why. Anyhow.
Weather guy hyping “massive storm” for next weekend. Like how irresponsible. All show. Then shows snow maps with 2 different models. One had 0.6” for Morris County and the other had 20.8” !!!
Nailed it !!
Stay tuned all week he says. Unbelievable. I guess it’s channel 11….
the icon isnt a serious model soAnd, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other. Let's see how the rest of the 12Z suite plays out, though.
I don't see it as a negative.
There is potential for a big storm. I am fully aware that storms that far out are not going to be predicted with high confidence. They are acknowledging there is not high confidence by showing the 2 models with such high spreads.
If there is potential for a big storm, I would like to know about it. Whether I tune in for the rest of the week is up to me.
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I enjoy the weather threads, for both the info and the trash talk. I like to be informed and entertained.
Agree with this.........BAC, it's weird the obsession you have with ripping numbers posts............it's annoying as hell......I like what numbers posts and he just posts POSSIBILITIES...............nothing definitive. You're almost stalker like...........you're embarrassing yourself............I love your basketball recaps and your outstanding bracketology posts...... and pretty much everything else you post............but your constant attacking of numbers posts is just rediculous. Please stop.
the majority of models are about an inch or less in much of central jersey and less in north jersey.... the hrrr seems most bullish with amount of 2-3. the nam, icon are slightly over an inch
I think call for a coating to 2 inches for Belle Mead covers most bases
I think call for a coating to 2 inches for Belle Mead covers most bases
The truth.
Everyone should all be able to figure out in these threads what’s important, what’s not important, what’s funny and what’s 🙄.
If you can’t, that’s really on you.
We all appreciate what @RU848789, @bac2therac and even what @Tango Two does with providing this service.
And for someone who works outside and has to deal with the elements, it is VERY appreciated. Keep up the good work, all of you.
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sorry im acting here as a check to his snow bias which anyone can see most of the time. There are always possibilities, he was ready to shut the door on small amounts 4-5 days out. If you actually read my stuff, its all about saying the models are always changing and not very reliable beyond 3 days out, sometimes even 48 hour or less changes
if you dont like you can put me on ignore. Its a back and forth here...and if you didnt look, it was Numbers who criticized my posting of the 15 day snowmap, before that things have civilized..please call balls and strikes both ways or do not call them at all.
its also not like everyone is not an adult here, are you really melting down and that upset because there are some bickering posts in the thread. Its very easy to scroll past and not get involved but you choose to be part of the bickering here by sniping bac and the post you highlighted brought a poltical figure into the thread for no apparent reason....so save your high moral ground
12z euro so you again see this issues with accumulating snow for everyone but south jersey and even there these amounts are not as impressive as modelling earlier in the week
LIVE - Winter Storm Coverage With Storm Chasers On The Ground, Live Weather Channel...
Upper Somerset County looking pretty good so far. I filled-up the gas can last night for the snowblower so that should ensure next to zero accumulation.12z euro so you again see this issues with accumulating snow for everyone but south jersey and even there these amounts are not as impressive as modelling earlier in the week
First, I won't put you on ignore because I actually like your contributions to the board...........you have consistently good takes and information. And, even in these weather threads, your information is good, and objective. Its just seems like you can't wait to jump on numbers when he makes posts in weather threads.....and you brought up it was numbers that criticized your post on the 15 day snowmap........I guarantee that if you were'nt the aggressive party over the years regarding his weather threads, you would likely never see a retort from him, and as far as acting as a check to his snow bias...........WHY????.....who cares if he has a snow bias..........why does there have to be someone who checks that...............that is the very thing you should ignore.......I like his excitement regarding potential snowstorms......we are all intelligent enough to discern what is over excitement/bias as opposed to the vast amount of quality information he posts. Just like the extraordinary work and time you put into your post game analysis and braketology posts, number puts that energy into weather posts...............it really bothers you that much????? And if someone had some weird obsession about ripping your posts, I would be saying the same exact thing to them. You're a tremendous poster on this board, but just tarnish the solid image you have by attacking numbers in this regard (and I know you don't care whether I think you are tarnishing your image lol.................but it would be nice if you just backed off..............I and others don't need a check and balance system in regard to numbers love for winter storms...............continue to do your excellent work as a poster on this board, it would just be great if you stopped commenting negatively or sarcasticly on numbers posts. It would make reading weather threads much more enjoyable, just like its enjoyable to read your post game/braketology posts.
Did you read what I said above?
You’re a big kid, like the rest of us, so you can sort it out. It’s not that hard.
Just be happy I reigned them all in on the new event, new thread rule. If it weren’t for that I’d probably be right there with your encyclopedic length post. 😁
Ok, every global model at 12Z has bumped up snowfall amounts at least a bit, so CNJ is not shut out on any of them and Philly has at least 2" on all of them (except 1" on the UK, which is still an outlier, but not nearly as much), although we're only talking 1/2-1" for most in CNJ with up to 1.5-2" as one nears 276/195. I'm using Kuchera for this one, as per Walt Drag's comments on banding likely to produce high ratios.And, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other. Let's see how the rest of the 12Z suite plays out, though.
Point is this appears to be some convergence with the mesoscale/CAM models, which still mostly show more than 1" for CNJ and much more than 2" for Philly/SNJ, especially the HRRR/RAP. At this point, it's time to make a guesstimate, so I'm going with 1.5" at my house in Metuchen, as I like the trend on the globals and think the mesos/CAMs might do better on this storm. Unfortunately <1" is still on the table, but so is 2-4", at my house and for most of CNJ, especially towards 276/195.
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I was just responding directly to BAC's post.................I rarely post, and never in a lengthy fashion........I must of had a NewJerseyHawk posting momemt lol
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