I predict less than an inch of rain for most of the State.
A typical summer day or two.
Nothing to see here
A typical summer day or two.
Nothing to see here
OT: NJ weather: Tropical storm could bring flooding, rip currents in the next few days
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
But isn’t an inch or two of rain the same thing as like lots of snow??
Meteorological anyway!
Yeah, but look what happened in the t-storm thread when I merely made a post suggesting the possibility of a tropical storm forming and moving much closer to the coast - which is what actually is occurring, even though that was a low probability a few days ago, but obviously possible. The bash brothers do that all the time and it gets old.
I think he's being funny or trying to. Generally, a cyclone is any low pressure system anywhere, but more formally, named tropical systems in the Indian Ocean area (and southern hemisphere) are called "cyclones." As per the map.
I think he's being funny or trying to. Generally, a cyclone is any low pressure system anywhere, but more formally, named tropical systems in the Indian Ocean area (and southern hemisphere) are called "cyclones." As per the map.
I know its Wiki but it's a legit term:
A subtropical cyclone is more likely to be a tropical cyclone than an extratropical cyclone. Subtropical cyclones are only found in the northern Atlantic Ocean and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Like normal tropical cyclones, most subtropical cyclones have maximum wind speeds of at least 39 mph to 74 mph (60 km/h to 110 km/h). Subtropical cyclones that have wind speeds less than 39 mph are known as "subtropical depressions".[1] There is no such thing as a "Subtropical Hurricane". If there is a previously subtropical storm with this intensity, it is either fully tropical or extratropical.
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone
He lives in fear of the guy with the cat avatar and the brother with the dog avatar.
Thank goodness we have a pro in this thread. This thread was amateur hour before you got here!
Tropical Storm Warning until 01:15AM Friday
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Perth Amboy - New Brunswick
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 45 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Friday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect property should now be complete. The area remains subject to limited wind damage. - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from hazardous wind. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
* STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Not available at this time. To be updated shortly. - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Not available at this time. To be updated shortly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Not available at this time. To be updated shortly.
* FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures.
* TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes. - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://www.weather.gov/phi
* AFFECTED AREAS: MIDDLESEX
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Perth Amboy - New Brunswick
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 45 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Friday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect property should now be complete. The area remains subject to limited wind damage. - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from hazardous wind. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
* STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Not available at this time. To be updated shortly. - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Not available at this time. To be updated shortly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Not available at this time. To be updated shortly.
* FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures.
* TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes. - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION: - http://www.weather.gov/phi
* AFFECTED AREAS: MIDDLESEX
Yep, just checked 2 minutes ago and no update. Hmmmm, key messages say 3-5" and up to 8" locally. NWS still only calling for 1-3", which I think makes sense looking at the models, but the coast especially could be in for some serious rain and the NHC is looking at a few of the tropical models which are showing 3-5" of rain.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
Key Messages:
1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
And here's the NWS discussion...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low is forecast to work its way up the coasts of Delaware and
New Jersey on Friday, before moving into New England on Friday night.
Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Friday.
The rain will be heavy at times. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
should be common in our region with locally higher amounts possible
based on the nature of the system.
The back edge of the heavy rain is anticipated to lift gradually
northward across our region during the afternoon and evening hours.
The chance of showers will likely decrease on Friday night.
The wind is expected to favor the northeast on Friday at speeds of
10 to 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH near the coast, and around 10
MPH inland. The wind should become light and variable on Friday
night.
Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Lows on Friday night should favor the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Sorry, my friend, it's really looking like a washout all day tomorrow. Every model is now showing at least 1" for the 95 corridor, with most showing 1-3", although a couple are showing a sharp cutoff, not too far west of the TPK, which means there is still some small possibility that enough of a shift east will occur between now and tomorrow to greatly reduce the amount of rain for NB, but that's looking much less likely than this morning. The other dim hope is that the system speeds up a little, as one model shows, with the rain being mostly over by 5-6 pm. Again low probability, but keep an eye on it.
Didn't @bac2therac shame you in the other thread for suggesting the possibility of this much rain?Yep, just checked 2 minutes ago and no update. Hmmmm, key messages say 3-5" and up to 8" locally. NWS still only calling for 1-3", which I think makes sense looking at the models, but the coast especially could be in for some serious rain and the NHC is looking at a few of the tropical models which are showing 3-5" of rain.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents
Key Messages:
1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
And here's the NWS discussion...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low is forecast to work its way up the coasts of Delaware and
New Jersey on Friday, before moving into New England on Friday night.
Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Friday.
The rain will be heavy at times. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
should be common in our region with locally higher amounts possible
based on the nature of the system.
The back edge of the heavy rain is anticipated to lift gradually
northward across our region during the afternoon and evening hours.
The chance of showers will likely decrease on Friday night.
The wind is expected to favor the northeast on Friday at speeds of
10 to 20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH near the coast, and around 10
MPH inland. The wind should become light and variable on Friday
night.
Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Lows on Friday night should favor the upper 60s and lower 70s.
A public apology is in order.
This storm will be long gone, but still could be some summer t-storms, with no rain in some spots and 1/4" or more in others - where is impossible to predict...
Sorry, my friend, it's really looking like a washout all day tomorrow. Every model is now showing at least 1" for the 95 corridor, with most showing 1-3", although a couple are showing a sharp cutoff, not too far west of the TPK, which means there is still some small possibility that enough of a shift east will occur between now and tomorrow to greatly reduce the amount of rain for NB, but that's looking much less likely than this morning. The other dim hope is that the system speeds up a little, as one model shows, with the rain being mostly over by 5-6 pm. Again low probability, but keep an eye on it.
appreciate the update - pretty much told the staff we won’t be working tomorrow. Hoping for a big Saturday/Sunday!
Sorry, my friend, it's really looking like a washout all day tomorrow. Every model is now showing at least 1" for the 95 corridor, with most showing 1-3", although a couple are showing a sharp cutoff, not too far west of the TPK, which means there is still some small possibility that enough of a shift east will occur between now and tomorrow to greatly reduce the amount of rain for NB, but that's looking much less likely than this morning. The other dim hope is that the system speeds up a little, as one model shows, with the rain being mostly over by 5-6 pm. Again low probability, but keep an eye on it.
Earlier today, when the NHC was forecasting 3-5" for rain for most of the mid-Atlantic/NE (with up to 8" in spots), I was skeptical, since the 12Z models almost all showed 1-3" of rain, mostly, and the NWS offices (Philly and NYC) at 4 pm were calling for a general 1-3" of rain (with locally greater amounts) for the Philly-NJ-NYC-CT-LI region. However, if anyone has looked at the 0Z suite, every major global (Euro, UK, GFS, UK, and CMC), the NAM, the RGEM and even the HRRR are all showing at least 1-3" of rain" with the UK, Euro and CMC having significant swaths of 3-5" of rain for this area with some lollipops over 6" on a couple of models. That's flooding level rains in 18 hours, from Friday morning through early Saturday morning. I'm not a rain fan, so I have no interest in seeing that much. Too sleepy to post all the maps. Here's the latest from the NHC at 11 pm.
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Key Messages:
1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.
2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Now looking worse for rainfall, if the latest model runs (pretty strong consensus - see my last post) are correct, as nor'easters are generally cold core storms with less energy than tropical systems, which are warm core systems (deriving energy from the warm waters of the ocean) - less energy means less potential rainfall usually. This storm isn't looking hellacious for winds and coastal flooding, but we're now likely to see flooding rains in urban areas and probably some streams and rivers. Going to be watching my roof and basement closely, lol.
Yes, the Brothers Grim did their usual number. As I said in the other thread, the big, big rains might not verify, but the storm becoming tropical and the track shifting 100-200 miles west of the Monday forecast occurred and all I ever said was that that was possible back on Monday (but unlikely, although it needed to be watched carefully). I've never cared about being challenged, as I'll argue just about anything, but I just dislike the over-the-top snark.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...orms-today-in-central-nj.198991/#post-4628424
Getting HAMMERED here in OC right now with heavy rain and wind. Can someone explain to me why my cable TV keeps going out? I had DirecTV for the last 10 years and hardly ever had a problem but just switched to Xfinity a month ago when DTV raised my rate by almost $75 per month.
Explanation: XFinity=Comcast=Horrific.
All cable companies suck. I’ve been without Verizon Fios service since Monday because of the storm. A tech was supposed to show up yesterday never showed. Getting to talk to a person there is a nightmare.
May be a function of location too. We have had FIOS in two Monmouth county towns, and it has been flawless. Comcast was terrible.
My neighbor drives the rescue boat on the river in Lambertville. He will be called out a good 8-10 times this weekend I’m sure.
The latest NWS forecast is for 2-4" of rain with isolated higher amounts. There will be some urban/stream flooding, as per the hydrology section below. Coastal flooding shouldn't be an issue and winds won't likely be an issue (40-50 mph gusts at the coast and less inland), but there will be dangerous rip currents.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
945 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical Storm Fay was centered about 50 miles east of Ocean
City, Maryland at 9:30 AM. The center is forecast to move
northward along the New Jersey coast this afternoon and through
the New York City metropolitan area this evening.
We continue to expect the main threat in our region to be heavy
rain. Widespread totals in the 2 to 4 inch range are
anticipated with locally higher amounts. Our entire forecast
area is under a Flash Flood Watch.
Winds along the coast are expected to gust in excess of 40 MPH.
Meanwhile, the wind gusts in northeastern Maryland and eastern
Pennsylvania should peak generally in the 25 to 30 MPH range.
There remains the potential for an isolated weak tornado or two
in the coastal counties of New Jersey as the storm works its
way northward due to the increased shear in that area.
The rain will end gradually from south to north during the
afternoon and evening hours.
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Fay will have the potential to
cause flash flooding today. Expected rainfall is from 2 to 4
inches with local amounts up to 6 inches possible. Model
guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread in where the
heaviest rainfall will occur. On the whole, the 00z guidance
generally slightly shifted east however notably the 00z EC
remained further west of the rest of the global guidance and
more towards the 12z suite from yesterday. The 06z NAM trended
this way again and so while this morning updates slightly shift
the highest rainfall totals slightly east, we still expect the
potential for heavy rainfall to be for the entire forecast area.
One hour flash flood guidance values are across south and
central New Jersey are between 2-3 inches while across the
Lehigh Valley the values are as low as 3/4 of an inch. With the
tropical airmass moving in, several of the CAMs are indicating
the potential that may be exceeded. While the 6 hour flash flood
guidance is between 4 to 6 inches, the 7-day percent of normal
precipitation plot from AHPS showed a few areas in southern NJ
and the Delmarva Peninsula with 200 to 400 percent of normal
rainfall which may increase the flash flood risk locally.
Here's the WPC rainfall forecast from 7 am today to 7 am Saturday...
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
945 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical Storm Fay was centered about 50 miles east of Ocean
City, Maryland at 9:30 AM. The center is forecast to move
northward along the New Jersey coast this afternoon and through
the New York City metropolitan area this evening.
We continue to expect the main threat in our region to be heavy
rain. Widespread totals in the 2 to 4 inch range are
anticipated with locally higher amounts. Our entire forecast
area is under a Flash Flood Watch.
Winds along the coast are expected to gust in excess of 40 MPH.
Meanwhile, the wind gusts in northeastern Maryland and eastern
Pennsylvania should peak generally in the 25 to 30 MPH range.
There remains the potential for an isolated weak tornado or two
in the coastal counties of New Jersey as the storm works its
way northward due to the increased shear in that area.
The rain will end gradually from south to north during the
afternoon and evening hours.
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Fay will have the potential to
cause flash flooding today. Expected rainfall is from 2 to 4
inches with local amounts up to 6 inches possible. Model
guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread in where the
heaviest rainfall will occur. On the whole, the 00z guidance
generally slightly shifted east however notably the 00z EC
remained further west of the rest of the global guidance and
more towards the 12z suite from yesterday. The 06z NAM trended
this way again and so while this morning updates slightly shift
the highest rainfall totals slightly east, we still expect the
potential for heavy rainfall to be for the entire forecast area.
One hour flash flood guidance values are across south and
central New Jersey are between 2-3 inches while across the
Lehigh Valley the values are as low as 3/4 of an inch. With the
tropical airmass moving in, several of the CAMs are indicating
the potential that may be exceeded. While the 6 hour flash flood
guidance is between 4 to 6 inches, the 7-day percent of normal
precipitation plot from AHPS showed a few areas in southern NJ
and the Delmarva Peninsula with 200 to 400 percent of normal
rainfall which may increase the flash flood risk locally.
Here's the WPC rainfall forecast from 7 am today to 7 am Saturday...
You really think the heavy rain bands will come up here?
Just light rain so far, no wind
I was almost going to postpone a trip to the bank since it's raining. I said WTF... you only live once. And OMG...I made it to and fro.
So I'm watching the weather channel with the crew in AC talking about watching a couple garbage cans get wiped out and contents being dragged into the ocean.....now while on camera wave hits garbage can with the garbage being emptied into the ocean even had a plastic bottle get caught on his foot..
How about you take the garbage can an d move it onto boardwalk you Jackass. do something for the environment or pick up the plastic bottle at your feet
How about you take the garbage can an d move it onto boardwalk you Jackass. do something for the environment or pick up the plastic bottle at your feet
