This is how "barn finds" happen. Except in your case, 50 years from now someone won't be uncovering a 1966 Pontiac GTO with low miles, but an Ariens 2-stage snowblower with low hours
Excellent executive summary report to help monitor and plan! Thank you R Official TKR Weather Guy.
Pretty much the same here - I hesitate to call it a squall. Some flurries have returned.
LMAO great to see you checking in Southern
Given pretty similar results for the 12Z and 18Z models, no surprise that the NWS (and other sources) are predicting a general 2-3" area-wide, except for 1-2" toward the coast due to a likely changeover to rain; could change to sleet or freezing rain up to the 95 corridor for a time in the afternoon, also, with a light glaze possible on top of the snow. The NWS snowfall maps are below. A general 3-5" for most is still on the table and the floor is probably an inch or so if the precip dries up (some dry slotting is possible). Significant changes are fairly unlikely, though at this point, about 30-36 hours from when the 18Z models initialized.
Really, not much change worth noting in the 0Z models tonight relative to the last few model cycles. Sure some models have more than others, with areas up to 4-5" (especially with likely high ratios), but there are a couple of models with more like a general 1-2" and several in-between with most locations between 2" and 3". That's why I'd be very surprised if the NWS changed their forecast of a general 2-3" snowfall with 1-2" near the coast, as some mixing/rain is more likely there (most recent maps are in the quoted post).Given pretty similar results for the 12Z and 18Z models, no surprise that the NWS (and other sources) are predicting a general 2-3" area-wide, except for 1-2" toward the coast due to a likely changeover to rain; could change to sleet or freezing rain up to the 95 corridor for a time in the afternoon, also, with a light glaze possible on top of the snow. The NWS snowfall maps are below. A general 3-5" for most is still on the table and the floor is probably an inch or so if the precip dries up (some dry slotting is possible). Significant changes are fairly unlikely, though at this point, about 30-36 hours from when the 18Z models initialized.
Snow likely starts by late Monday night and will be all snow everywhere at least through the morning rush hour which could be icy with 1-2" likely already OTG by 9 am and with such a cold start the snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces, making for what could be a difficult rush hour with slick conditions a given for most local roads and probably some slush on more major roads, plus visibility could be an issue with the falling snow. The precip looks to wrap up by mid/late afternoon Tuesday.
And not much new with the 18Z models, with the GFS showing the least snow (1-2" area-wide) and the CMC and NAM showing the most 2-4" from a bit SE of 95 and NW of there with 1-2" well SE of 95 to the coast (due to some mixing/rain after 9 am Tuesday). Euro, RDPS and UK are kind of in the middle with 2-3" for most.
The usual links below and a great discussion of the storm from the NWS-Philly.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...16-2024-serves-as-obs-thread-as-well/page/25/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
421 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The Philadelphia snow drought appears to be near its end.
Relatively weak high pressure will be starting to give way to a
developing wave of low pressure along the stationary boundary to
our south Monday evening, with warm advection/isentropic lift
and frontogenesis already causing some light snow to break out
across the Delmarva and southern New Jersey. This light snow
will then overspread areas further north overnight. With
relatively modest forcing overall, expect rates to remain
relatively low, but widespread 1 to 2 inches of accumulation
looks reasonable by late Monday night across much of the area.
Temperatures will be mostly in the 20s through the night.
Tuesday, surface low strengthens as it passes northeastward off
the coast to our south. Some question remains about how close
the surface low passes, as some guidance sends a warm layer into
coastal areas which may change the immediate coast to rain
while possibly bringing some freezing rain to the I-95 corridor
Tuesday morning into midday. Further northwest, frontogenesis
and divergence aloft from the approaching upper level shortwave
likely leads to continued light but steady snowfall across the
Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Expect highest totals in these areas,
with locally more than 4 inches possible. Accumulations appear
to dwindle further southeast due to potential for dry slotting
and mixing, so have 2-3 down to I- 95 and 1-2 across most of the
coastal plain. It should be stressed that some uncertainty
remains regarding exact placement of forcing features, and
changes would affect snowfall totals. Highs along the coast may
reach the low-mid 40s thanks to onshore flow, while I-95
northwestward will stay near or below freezing, with 20s in the
Poconos.
Given pretty similar results for the 12Z and 18Z models, no surprise that the NWS (and other sources) are predicting a general 2-3" area-wide, except for 1-2" toward the coast due to a likely changeover to rain; could change to sleet or freezing rain up to the 95 corridor for a time in the afternoon, also, with a light glaze possible on top of the snow. The NWS snowfall maps are below. A general 3-5" for most is still on the table and the floor is probably an inch or so if the precip dries up (some dry slotting is possible). Significant changes are fairly unlikely, though at this point, about 30-36 hours from when the 18Z models initialized.
Snow likely starts by late Monday night and will be all snow everywhere at least through the morning rush hour which could be icy with 1-2" likely already OTG by 9 am and with such a cold start the snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces, making for what could be a difficult rush hour with slick conditions a given for most local roads and probably some slush on more major roads, plus visibility could be an issue with the falling snow. The precip looks to wrap up by mid/late afternoon Tuesday.
And not much new with the 18Z models, with the GFS showing the least snow (1-2" area-wide) and the CMC and NAM showing the most 2-4" from a bit SE of 95 and NW of there with 1-2" well SE of 95 to the coast (due to some mixing/rain after 9 am Tuesday). Euro, RDPS and UK are kind of in the middle with 2-3" for most.
The usual links below and a great discussion of the storm from the NWS-Philly.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...16-2024-serves-as-obs-thread-as-well/page/25/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
421 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The Philadelphia snow drought appears to be near its end.
Relatively weak high pressure will be starting to give way to a
developing wave of low pressure along the stationary boundary to
our south Monday evening, with warm advection/isentropic lift
and frontogenesis already causing some light snow to break out
across the Delmarva and southern New Jersey. This light snow
will then overspread areas further north overnight. With
relatively modest forcing overall, expect rates to remain
relatively low, but widespread 1 to 2 inches of accumulation
looks reasonable by late Monday night across much of the area.
Temperatures will be mostly in the 20s through the night.
Tuesday, surface low strengthens as it passes northeastward off
the coast to our south. Some question remains about how close
the surface low passes, as some guidance sends a warm layer into
coastal areas which may change the immediate coast to rain
while possibly bringing some freezing rain to the I-95 corridor
Tuesday morning into midday. Further northwest, frontogenesis
and divergence aloft from the approaching upper level shortwave
likely leads to continued light but steady snowfall across the
Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Expect highest totals in these areas,
with locally more than 4 inches possible. Accumulations appear
to dwindle further southeast due to potential for dry slotting
and mixing, so have 2-3 down to I- 95 and 1-2 across most of the
coastal plain. It should be stressed that some uncertainty
remains regarding exact placement of forcing features, and
changes would affect snowfall totals. Highs along the coast may
reach the low-mid 40s thanks to onshore flow, while I-95
northwestward will stay near or below freezing, with 20s in the
Poconos.
Will this finally break the streak of no meaningful snow for CNJ? 600 days and counting. As I said before, it doesn't count if you don't have to shovel it. However, I will add to this and say, if snow cancels school that would break the streak as well.
yeah its coming in faster than orginally progged...most of the area will be under snow by 9pm and likely in south jersey by 6
given the timing with snow winding down in the morning its likely schools are closed. Will not be that wet sloppy snow like last week but more of the lighter powdery stuff so easier to sweep and remove
