Yep, start time keeps moving up. Cherry Hill will likely start by 6-7 pm with accumulating snow (maybe some very light snow before that) and will largely be done with precip by 9-10 am or so, but 80-90% of that is going to be snow, with rain and/or maybe freezing rain likely only coming in after 6-7 am (if it does - only some models show that). You're going to have snow covered roads and the morning rush will likely be difficult.
We had 3-5" for much of CNJ last winter including in NB (which had 3.3" last winter,; Metuchen had 5.2") so no streak of <1" snowfalls for some, unlike NYC which only had 2.3", likely due to the urban heat island effect there; NYC did have 1.5" of snow from one storm, but it was over 2 days, so the 1" wasn't exceeded on any calendar day (which is a little bit disingenous, IMO).
The late Thursday into Friday system might have the highest uncertainty 4 days out in awhile, as models through last night have been showing anywhere from nada to several inches; however, today's 12Z GFS shows a 1-2" event and the CMC shows more like a 2-5" event; Euro and UK up soon - will start a thread if those also show some snow. There is likely to be a coastal low fairly far offshore, which normally would only bring light snow to the area (especially at the coast), but there are signals of an inverted trough feature forming and these can focus precip (snow here) well NW of the low. However, they’re notoriously difficult to forecast, as they often have a narrow area of heavy precip surrounded by areas of much lighter precip. The NWS had a nice write-up on this possible event this morning...
For the week!
Yup. 2 days minimum! Snow has become such an infrequent thing, we forgot how to handle it.
I expect many to most to be closed with the rest likely having delayed openings. If it were 2-4" with marginal temps and not much on the roads, maybe most would be open, but schools usually are thinking about sidewalks, driveways and residential streets and those will all be covered and slippery with every flake that falls with temps below 32F at least through 7-8 am everywhere except well SE of 95.
i didnt have anything last year besides a dusting
Pretty similar to here, with 2-4" forecast; just starts 4-6 hours earlier (4-5 pm) and will end by sunrise most likely.
Wow, I wouldn't have thought being about 12 miles WSW from NB would make that much of a difference, but then again it went from 3.3" in NB to 5.2" in Metuchen over just 6 miles and with every system last year being marginal, small distances made bigger than usual differences.
I never know how much trust we're supposed to put in what the NWS says on its page that gives its prognostication for a zip code, but what they are saying right now is contrary to what you are saying.
YOu cant announce you're going to start a thread and not expect one of the savages to beat you to the punch. Come on....
Is there a special phone they gave you? Something like the bat phone where it blinks on and off?
Looks like they've extended the end time a bit further than what they were showing earlier and what some of the models are projecting after about 7-8 am. Some models have the precip over by 9-10 am for you and others by 1-2 pm, while the NWS has the precip winding down between 11 am and 4 pm with some rain and freezing rain possible, as you noted. It's not a big difference, really, since most of the snow damage is done by 9-10 am when temps for you are forecast to go above 32F just a little. Below is the hourly graphic for Cherry Hill. Hope that helps.
Yes and it's red for RU.
I truly don't care that much. I never did. People overreact when they see me explain why I prefer starting them, but to think I care more than a tiny bit is a little silly. Was nice to see the mods take out the trash last night, though - that I care a little more about as the trolling and bickering are annoying to most people. I have things to do this afternoon, so if someone else starts it, whatever...
IIRC, there are two "waves" of precip with this storm. Wave 1 is the southern special. Wave 2 is more north.
Actually wave 1 is really just a shortwave developed along the cold front leading to frontogenetic forcing from the clash of the cold front with the warm air its displacing and is northern stream derived, while wave 2 is a surface coastal that forms off NC then heads NE and is southern jet stream derived. Not an expert on synoptics though, so I might not have all of that correct, but that's essentially how Dr. Postell was explaining it today on TWC. Thought the NWS did a nice job describing this yesterday.
So, the NWS upped snowfall amounts again, based on the uptick in snowfall on the models, with the advisories generally for 3-5" along and NW of 95 in EPA/NJ, north of 276/195 that's what the advisories say even though the map shows 4-6" - the next "color" is 3-4", so they had to pick one), with 2-4" south of there and SE of 95, except only 1-2" in far SENJ as per the updated map below. NWS-NYC updated map not out yet, but their advisories for NENJ (Union up to Bergen) and NYC/LI are for 2-4", so a little less than NJ/PA NW of 95 and N of 276/195. These are pretty minor differences and it's easily possible the max amounts are in NENJ or NYC.NWS issued winter weather advisories for the entire Philly and NYC office counties (advisory criterion is 3" for counties N of 195/276 and is 2" for counties south of that) and did up their snowfall forecast a bit, with areas generally north of 195/276 forecast to get 3-4" and areas south of there forecast to get 2-3", as those areas are most likely to change over to rain for a bit after sunrise on Tuesday. Also, areas from NYC eastward are also forecast to get 2-3" of snow (due to a bit less precip); maps are below. It's also worth noting that there is some risk of a changeover to sleet and/or freezing rain along and a bit SE of 95 on Tuesday morning after about sunrise, but this is only being seen on the mesoscale models (NAM/RGEM), so it's not "officially" in the forecast.
Most other sources are showing a 1-3"/2-4" snowfall forecast, so it's almost a lock that DC/Philly/NYC will break their 700+ day streaks of not getting 1" or more of snow on any calendar day (NYC did get 1.5" over 2 days in one storm last winter). Note that this snowfall will generally be light to moderate without much heavy snowfall, but even 1/4-1/2" or so per hour for 8-10 hours (say midnight to 10 am) would give 2-5". Also, the 6Z models this morning which just came out are just about all now showing a 2-4" event area wide, as reflected in the NBM (national blend of models) map below, although the NWS is a little bit more bullish than the NBM for CNJ/NNJ.
The snow start times keep moving up, so accumulating snow is now expected to start around 10-11 pm in CNJ/NNJ/NEPA and an hour or two earlier in Philly/SNJ and an hour or so later for NYC and areas NE of there. It will be all snow for the region through about sunrise on Tuesday with temps below 32F (in the mid/upper 20s except near the coast where temps will be closer to 32F), meaning snow will easily accumulate at night with cold temps, leading to very slippery roads everywhere for the Tues am rush hour, as all but treated/heavily traveled roads will likely be snow covered and visibility will be reduced; even the treated major roads will likely be a bit slushy with temps below 32F.
While temps might go a little above freezing during the late morning early afternoon (especially from 95 and SE of there), they'll quickly drop below 32F by late afternoon, so shoveling before sunset would be highly recommended, as temps might not go above 32F again until next Monday. There's also still the chance of another accumulating snowfall on Friday, but uncertainty on this one is huge, so it could be anywhere from nada to several inches - will start a new thread if warranted, soon.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
I think the NWS messed up on this a bit, as none of their point and click forecasts shows any mix N of 78 and NW of 287 or even 10-20 miles NW of 95 and south of 78 a bit and certainly not in Warren/Morris/Sussex/Hunterdon. Sure a mix might be seen after 9-10 am in much of Middlesex/Somerset/Mercer and SE of there.
Thanks for posting the updated map (and being first to do so). Lots of copycats in this thread.
NAM and RGEM have consistently shown that freezing rain risk after about 9 am or so, but the globals either have all snow for 95 or a later changover to sleet or freezing rain. Agree we don't want freezing rain, as it's dangerous and aesthetically unpleasing. Saving grace could be that it'll mostly be falling on top of snow, forming a crust and not falling on bare ground forming ice rinks. Here's the difference between the NAM and Euro on freezing rain (ZR), which is substantial. If the NAM verified, that's 1-2" of snowfall lost to ZR and a risk of serious icing. Let's hope it's wrong.
Yep, Morristown totals bumped up from 3.5 to 5 inches in the last day, as per weather.gov.So, the NWS upped snowfall amounts again, based on the uptick in snowfall on the models, with the advisories generally for 3-5" along and NW of 95 in EPA/NJ, north of 276/195 that's what the advisories say even though the map shows 4-6" - the next "color" is 3-4", so they had to pick one), with 2-4" south of there and SE of 95, except only 1-2" in far SENJ as per the updated map below. NWS-NYC updated map not out yet, but their advisories for NENJ (Union up to Bergen) and NYC/LI are for 2-4", so a little less than NJ/PA NW of 95 and N of 276/195. These are pretty minor differences and it's easily possible the max amounts are in NENJ or NYC.
Also, we'll see some light snow before 9-10 pm in CNJ, but it's likely we won't start seeing accumulations until after that. In addition, the NWS thinks there could be a change to sleet/freezing rain along the 95 corridor and probably even rain for coastal sections (hold accumulations down there) after about 9-10 am for a few hours, but that's not a given. Freezing rain would not be welcome, although it's better on top of snow than on top of bare pavement. Somewhere NW of 95, like Morris/Sussex/Passaic etc. might get to 5-6" if we see really fluffy ratios, which is possible where there is no mixing and they get good snow growth.
Still going with 3.2" for my house which is what I posted this morning, so I have to stick with it, but now thinking 4" is more likely given the updated forecasts and snowier models. We'll see soon.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter weather advisory
Edit: NWS-NYC finally updated their map, below, also increasing snowfall amounts to 4-5" NW of the Parkway in NENJ and to 3-4" for east of the Parkway and NYC/LI.
