OT: Snow? - January 15-16?
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Roads covered in South Monmouth. Slippery drive home from my fire training. Seems roads were not brined or sanded.
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I saw no state or county roads being brined today during my travels. Interesting.
As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
light to moderate snow during daylight, even in mid-Jan makes it harder to accumulate; we won't have any of those issues. Also, seeing reports of 3" in the DC area and they're not done...
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Too cold. Murphy only brines when it is 40 degrees or over.
Mercer brined. I was out & about earlier & saw the stripes on the county roads & around the schools.
Teeenie tiny flakes coming down in Jersey City. Getting a light dusting so far. 27 degrees on my patio.
I feel like that’s the case for a lot of areas. The roads are going to be a mess.
We used to find out about school delays via the phone chain. What a time.
Ill be tuning into Jack Ellery on AM 1450 WCTC for school closing and delays
The times when you would have to repeatedly call because no one would answer 😂
He was the best! Even before that, I remember listening to WERA in the Plainfields. And of course, Rambling with Gambling had the announcements too.
Nobody wants the new 0Z NAM to verify. For most of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC it shows ~3" of snow, followed by about 0.25-0.4" of freezing rain - even if only some of that accretes on surfaces, that could be a significant ice storm on top of the snow, plus it robs us of about another 3" or so of snow. 4-5' of snow fall 10+ miles NW of 95 and beyond where they don't see ZR. But the NAM has been showing ZR for several runs in a row along the 95 corridor, so hard to just dismiss it.
The agony of waiting through the list only to not hear your school.
Didn't folks up here have the school's name called out? Where I grew up in SNJ, every school had a # and we were 803 in Gloucester County. I always dreaded hearing, "the following schools are closed: 800, 801, 802, 804..." 804??!! WTF happened to 803?! Hated that, lol.
That sounds good. IMO, the ice coating makes snow removal under 4 inches pretty easy.
Clearly, the NWS-Philly only sees a bit of freezing rain occurring...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
933 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM update....
No significant changes to the forecast as of 930PM. Snow
overspreading the region as expected with transition to ice
happening in southernmost zones presently. Tweaked the wording
for the WSW to give a bit more range in better agreement with
our existing forecast, and spread a bit more ice further north
and west into PA and central/northern NJ, but these are minor
adjustments since a light icing on top of plowed, treated roads
should cause little additional issue... a crust on top of the
snow otherwise.
That makes no sense to me. The amount of frozen mass you'd be removing will be the same whether it's 4" of snow + 0.3" of freezing rain vs. 7" of snow. The depth shouldn't really matter.
Thats weird
He went through schools alphabetically
The following public and parochial schools are closed today...
Bedminster...Bernandsville...Bridgewater Raritan...Dunellen...Hillsborough...Metuchen...Middlesex...St Cecilia inEdison..St Pius X in Piscataway..St Thomas Aquinas in Spotswood..Readington public schools...Warren Twp...Watchung Regional
The following day care and pre school..Bidaway Pre School in Edison
As of 10 pm, we're all the way up to 3/8", so 1/4" the past hour and down to 25F. Obviously, still just snowing lightly, but some better returns are not far away.
I'm sure it's overdone, but even half of that freezing rain would be a lot. NWS clearly thinks there won't be that much ZR which is good.
IDK, for the angled snow shovel we use for snow less than 6", it's easy to move when their is a crust of ice/frozen snow on the top. To each their own, I guess.
Storm seriously overperforming for DC/Balt as warnings were just issued for 4-6" of snow as 4" is already on the ground in the DC area and 3" in Baltimore. Doesn't guarantee anything here, but it's also overperforming in the Philly/SNJ area, so there's a decent chance of CNJ/NNJ getting at least to the 2-4/3-5" forecast amounts (and maybe the high ends of those).
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm warning
As of 11 pm, we're up to about 5/8" as another 1/4" fell the past hour. It's still 25F, but the snow has increased in intensity the last 10 minutes and it looks like that will continue for awhile, so hopefully we'll start doing better than 1/4" per hour.
I think its going to be tough to get more than 2" North and West of 95, the NAM is a mess of a model and really (and I mean REALLY) struggles with temp and convective issues. It's now putting out this ZR solution for the region that is really just out to lunch. If there is forcing/frontogenesis that sets up over the area I'd favor a mix with sleet rather than ZR, there just isn't that much warm air available at the 900-1000MB level.
SNJ and CNJ South and East of 95 may hit 4", the DC/Philly energy is kicking out east.
SNJ and CNJ South and East of 95 may hit 4", the DC/Philly energy is kicking out east.
More precip SE of 95 was somewhat expected with wave 1, the frontogenetic part from this evening through the pre-dawn hours; the coastal then becomes dominant and, in theory brings heavier snow to areas along and NW of 95, but also brings in warmer air aloft that is supposed to change the snow over to rain (or maybe some sleet or freezing rain if the surface stays cold enough) - Lee Goldberg was just talking about that and has areas along and NW of 95 getting 3-5" and SE of 95 getting 1-3" with the TPK essentially being the 3" line from Trenton to Fort Lee. Not saying I buy this, but that's his forecast and he's usually been pretty good.
Yep, 1/4" per hour until 6 am would give most of us around 2-2.5", but if the coastal then brings in heavier snow (maybe 1/2" per hour rates) for 3-4 hours before any changeover, we could get another 2" on top of that for 4" or so. We'll see.
