OT: Strong storms and heavy rain (with flooding) likely this afternoon thru Tues am (7/22-7/23)
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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Weather talk brings out the fascinating in humans...as I deal less and less in the science of meteorology, I find the psychology of people and their weather so interesting. Almost as interesting as climate change chat which is delightfully political, and fully of yummy vitriol!
Growing up it seemed it was the law that every house on Ivy Hill Road had to have built in basketball backboard.
Thanks! And it's not only you, although you're probably a little more vocal about it, lol.
Back to the weather, still some major storms poised to come through CNJ from the SW in the next hour or two, as well as more storms going on now north of about 80 in NNJ/NYC. Could still see some additional flooding in areas that have seen 1-3" of rain already, i.e., most of EPA/NJ north of 276/195; less has fallen south of there. Flood warnings are up for small streams and urban locations all over the area.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=flood warning
Got some rain here, enough to get the lawn and plants a nice drink. Otherwise, just another rain storm on just another summer day.
From my view on the NWS radar looks like SE Coastal Monmouth might catch a break here. Including from the one coming next (which is down around Baltimore/DC now).
Do you concur?
Also, @RU4Real and @Knight Shift what are you guys hearing on the radio for the same area, SE Coastal Monmouth?
I am not hearing anything. We left an engine crew at the station and everyone else went home.
Our engine just got called to cover Shark River Hills, which has a fire.
But I am seeing the same thing you see with the radar--fingers crossed.
If one assumes current convective storms continue on the paths they're taking and don't change much in size, yes, it looks like the storms would miss coastal SE Monmouth if not most of Monmouth. That's a rather large assumption, though, as conditions are still ripe almost everywhere to form storms and these lines could grow or shrink and/or new storms can pop up from seemingly nowhere.
Based on many years of watching radar returns in summertime situations, I'd say it's a decent to good chance you'll escape these major ongoing storms, but not a lock. Just as importantly, the latest HRRR (short-term mesoscale model) is showing no significant storms for most of Monmouth County over the next several hours, so that probably raises the chances to "good" (~75% probability - just guessing here) that you won't see major storms over the next couple of hours.
However, the model does show one last line of moderate to strong storms hitting the county around 7-8 am. I'd say that's maybe a 50-50 chance. Note also that the ongoing storms and the early morning storms don't appear to be as severe as this evening's storms. So we got that goin' for us.
2:30 am edit: the batch of storms that was over far SNJ 2 hours ago has held together and expanded a bit westward on its march to the NE, meaning AC to about Seaside is getting hammered now with strong storms (but very little activity along and W of the Parkway) and SE Coastal Monmouth (i.e., the immediate coast) will likely be a very close call in the next hour or so. And models still showing one last batch hitting much of CNJ/NNJ, including all of Monmouth in the 6-8 am timeframe. Bedtime...
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I got lucky, didn't lose power and I didn't see any fallen trees. Just tree branches and other crap.
Longest stretch of non stop heavy rain I have ever seen here in Mahwah. Started around 4pm and stopped near 8pm. Had to backwash the pool as it actually overflowed.
I am so grateful to have not lost power in Tinton Falls, where we usually lose power if someone sneezes too hard.
A 17 y/o boy in Neptune was killed last night in a house fire, possibly due to a candle that was lit due to the power outage.
A 17 y/o boy in Neptune was killed last night in a house fire, possibly due to a candle that was lit due to the power outage.
Full house generator was the best peace of mind investment I ever made.
I have secretly wanted my area to have a significant power outage for years now but since I had it installed, never more than an hour or two...but would never own a home again without it
I have secretly wanted my area to have a significant power outage for years now but since I had it installed, never more than an hour or two...but would never own a home again without it
Marlboro and South along route 9 corridor got hit pretty hard. Many trees and big tree limbs down. Power lost in Manalapan and south as well especially in Howell.
Where is that? Having trouble picturing it.Some pictures from Asbury Park Press.
Route 34 in Wall:
Right by the airport. You can see the sign "airport rd" on the downed sign if you look closely. Was not out there. Was out by Allaire State Park.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
I know.
But still having trouble here. Past Hurley's Pond? By the Exterminator or Tile place? By Zodiac Aerospace?
I could be mistaken, but it appears to be right at the entrance where the new NJSFA Building is?
Some pictures from Asbury Park Press.
Courtland Street in Neptune:
Asbury Park:
Neptune:
Route 34 in Wall:
Thanks for sharing. Pics like these from all over the region, plus flooding in tons of places. Yep, just an average summer shower. My favorite from the AmericanWx site is this video of a moron trying to get through deep water and stalling.
Also, some footage of a radar-indicated tornado in Chatham on Cape Cod...
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher
Did you go? Looks like it's been cloudy, comfortable and dry all day since about 8-9 am - maybe a spritz or two at the most, judging by radar.
I can't think of another intersection that has "Airport Blvd" and a traffic light. IIRC, heading north, the traffic lights are Hurley Pond Road (Quail Ridge), Aiport Blvd/Main Airport Entrance, then Belmar Blvd. What is strange in that picture is the position of the parked vehicles.
I lost power in Hamilton around 5:30pm last night came back on at around 2:30am it sucked but could've been worse. A tree on George Dye road around the corner is laying on top of a car, large branches and garbage cans scattered throughout the neighborhood.
Yep, just some rain. Not like there weren’t significant impacts to our region.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Was it really bad in Mahwah? I have a friend there who said it wasn’t that big a deal where he is in Mahwah...yet I’ve heard others who thought the sky was falling.
Amazing how dramatic storminess can be with summer storms
Amazing how dramatic storminess can be with summer storms
Last Friday I was in the airport in Ft. Meyers on my way back from Naples and the storm I watched while waiting for my flight was spectacular.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Hi -- yes, thanks. We got there @ 11am. Cloudy, with one burst of rain for about 10 minutes, but otherwise, just overcast. Spot on!
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