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OT: Strong storms and heavy rain (with flooding) likely this afternoon thru Tues am (7/22-7/23)

knightfan7 said:
Got mine back a bit less than an hour ago so outage lasted 26 hours.
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Just got internet and cable back this morning. So if you want to know anything about a college football team from Div III to JUCO to FBS I'm your man.[roll]. Thank God I had all those football magazines. Seriously I'm lucky, our friend Bonnie is coming over today to work, they have no power and she's in Farmingdale. My friend Jim in Millstone won't have power back till Friday.
 
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koleszar said:
Just got internet and cable back this morning. So if you want to know anything about a college football team from Div III to JUCO to FBS I'm your man.[roll]. Thank God I had all those football magazines. Seriously I'm lucky, our friend Bonnie is coming over today to work, they have no power and she's in Farmingdale. My friend Jim in Millstone won't have power back till Friday.
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I spent the day reading "My Dad, Yogi" by @Zappa.

It's always strange to see how these things work. Most, if not all, of Brielle never lost power. On 71 the power stopped at the town line.

I drove around town and you could watch different sections come back on line. First was the western part along the line with Brielle, then the town center, then 71, then east to the bridges, then finally the beach area. My next door neighbor gets his power from the poles on the street behind us. He had power 2 hours before I did.
 
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Still without power in Aberdeen, according to the JCPL website they haven't even dispatched a crew to look at the issue. Being told, like everyone else, that they hope to have the majority of people back up by July 26th 11:30 pm.

I know this storm packed a wallop, but it seems JCPL does very little preventative maintenance.
 
RU1993 said:
Still without power in Aberdeen, according to the JCPL website they haven't even dispatched a crew to look at the issue. Being told, like everyone else, that they hope to have the majority of people back up by July 26th 11:30 pm.

I know this storm packed a wallop, but it seems JCPL does very little preventative maintenance.
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"Preventative maintenance"?

Not so much, I don't think. There's not a whole lot JCP&L could have done to prevent this. The grid infrastructure is pretty old, the increase in demand on that infrastructure has been massive, especially in Monmouth County. Monday's storm was a recipe for disaster - record high temperatures over several days stressed capacity to an extreme. When that happens, it doesn't take much to initiate a cascade failure.

When local governments allow nearly unrestricted development nobody stops to think about the impact on electrical transmission, much as nobody stops to think about the impact on roads.
 
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RU4Real said:
"Preventative maintenance"?

Not so much, I don't think. There's not a whole lot JCP&L could have done to prevent this. The grid infrastructure is pretty old, the increase in demand on that infrastructure has been massive, especially in Monmouth County. Monday's storm was a recipe for disaster - record high temperatures over several days stressed capacity to an extreme. When that happens, it doesn't take much to initiate a cascade failure.

When local governments allow nearly unrestricted development nobody stops to think about the impact on electrical transmission, much as nobody stops to think about the impact on roads.
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Over development is part of the problem, the other part is that JCPL has let the grid age and doesn't not replace equipment until is fails. We have lived in our house for 26 years. we lose power 3 to 4 times a year due to a faulty transformer that is constantly overloading. Whenever the repair guys come, my neighbor asks what it would take to replace it. the last time the repair guy told him it would need to fall off the pole.
 
RU1993 said:
Still without power in Aberdeen, according to the JCPL website they haven't even dispatched a crew to look at the issue. Being told, like everyone else, that they hope to have the majority of people back up by July 26th 11:30 pm.

I know this storm packed a wallop, but it seems JCPL does very little preventative maintenance.
Click to expand...

They don't
 
RU1993 said:
Over development is part of the problem, the other part is that JCPL has let the grid age and doesn't not replace equipment until is fails. We have lived in our house for 26 years. we lose power 3 to 4 times a year due to a faulty transformer that is constantly overloading. Whenever the repair guys come, my neighbor asks what it would take to replace it. the last time the repair guy told him it would need to fall off the pole.
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Well.....it's pretty clear what you need to make happen then isn't it [roll]
 
RU4Real said:
"Preventative maintenance"?

Not so much, I don't think. There's not a whole lot JCP&L could have done to prevent this. The grid infrastructure is pretty old, the increase in demand on that infrastructure has been massive, especially in Monmouth County. Monday's storm was a recipe for disaster - record high temperatures over several days stressed capacity to an extreme. When that happens, it doesn't take much to initiate a cascade failure.

When local governments allow nearly unrestricted development nobody stops to think about the impact on electrical transmission, much as nobody stops to think about the impact on roads.
Click to expand...

Looking back to Sandy, I was talking to a crew from Alabama Power while they waited for someone from JCP&L to approve their work which apparently was the protocol before they could move on to the next assignment.

They said back then a huge problem was the outdated electric infrastructure along with the limitations First Energy put on them. They said in a few cases there was an issue getting parts because some weren't even made anymore.
 
e5fdny said:
Okay. That gives me a landmark. Thanks.
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Another view (the foreground should look familiar)--taken from Glendola's Facebook post:
67316407_2797753133585682_7379770965862907904_n.jpg
 
RU848789 said:
Great to hear it worked out, thanks! Haven't been to Dorney Park since I was about 17...
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RU#s...
If you are online, I need your expert opinion once again. Today, Wednesday, I’m taking my campers to Yankee Stadium for the game at 1 PM. We have a back up plan but we need to make the call by about 930 this morning. I’m sure they will start the game, the question is whether or not we get a huge delay with tons of thunder and lightning that will push us back a few hours and make for a miserable afternoon and ride home to New Jersey. No pressure, just seeing if you have any thoughts on that. Thank you very much!
 
chickenpatty2 said:
RU#s...
If you are online, I need your expert opinion once again. Today, Wednesday, I’m taking my campers to Yankee Stadium for the game at 1 PM. We have a back up plan but we need to make the call by about 930 this morning. I’m sure they will start the game, the question is whether or not we get a huge delay with tons of thunder and lightning that will push us back a few hours and make for a miserable afternoon and ride home to New Jersey. No pressure, just seeing if you have any thoughts on that. Thank you very much!
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Close call, unfortunately. Weather should be fine through about 2-3 pm, but then the chance of showers and t-storms increases significantly and some storms are likely area-wide with 1/2" of rain or more possible in the mid/late afternoon. So if the game goes quickly, you might be fine, but some delays are certainly possible, especially in the later innings.

With summertime storms associated with a frontal system, which is the situation here (and one we've seen repeatedly this summer), predictability of when/where they hit is next to impossible - we've all seen situations where one area gets hammered with storms and areas not far away see little or nothing. I'd guess there's a 50% chance the Bronx will be ok through 4 pm, so maybe roll the dice and keep an eye on the radar and if it looks bad get out of Dodge so you're not stuck in the afternoon rush hour in storms. Forecast/weather graphic are below. Good luck.

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then a chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-73.90022277832031&lat=40.89275342420697#.XUGEyehKjDc

Plotter.php
 
Well, the rain held off until 3, but it's looking ugly for at least awhile, with strong t storms all over the area...
 
RU848789 said:
Well, the rain held off until 3, but it's looking ugly for at least awhile, with strong t storms all over the area...
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Heavy rain, hail, lighting strikes in the parking lot at Valley Forge National Historic Park. Hopefully it passes soon so I can get a bike ride in.
 
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Working from home today, just got kicked out of the VPN. I've heard the office down in Branchburg is without power.
 
Started hearing thunder around here (Manasquan Beach) from popup thunderstorms around 1:30. Some rain on and off a bit after 2:00. Heavy rain came a while later. Some street flooding heading into town. Still hearing thunder and rain is sporadic.
 
WhiteBus said:
Heavy rain, hail, lighting strikes in the parking lot at Valley Forge National Historic Park. Hopefully it passes soon so I can get a bike ride in.
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I was working at our PA site in Upper Gwynedd and after lunch at Harvest Seasonal Grill, was driving on 309 around 2 pm and hit a deluge of rain - just pouring with traffic going 20 mph - luckily I didn't have far to go.
 
RU848789 said:
I was working at our PA site in Upper Gwynedd and after lunch at Harvest Seasonal Grill, was driving on 309 around 2 pm and hit a deluge of rain - just pouring with traffic going 20 mph - luckily I didn't have far to go.
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I sat over an hour in that parking lot. Lightning strike maybe 150 yards from me. Than hail.
Did get a short ride in. My first time around the park. Really beautiful place. Ride back on PA Turnpike was awful.
 
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Numbers was pretty damn accurate on the Yankees forecast. It looks like we got hit harder in northern Central NJ but less down in say, New Brunswick.
 
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RUPete said:
Numbers was pretty damn accurate on the Yankees forecast. It looks like we got hit harder in northern Central NJ but less down in say, New Brunswick.
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Thanks (NWS forecast, not mine, though). As I said above though, today's storms really illustrate the huge uncertainty of when/where these storms hit and the huge variability in outcomes. As per the storm precip graphic below (so far - worst is over, though), isolated areas got 2-4" of rain, some areas got 1-2' or so and most got less than 0.5".

Just imagine the hue and cry at the forecasters if we got 4 feet of snow in parts of Staten Island and 4" of snow in Metuchen (and had similar discrepancies all over the place) - well, that's essentially what happened today with the equivalent amount of precip that fell. And if that happened, I'd probably be breaking shit, lol. Fortunately, precip forecasts are much more accurate when its cold, as the atmosphere has about 10X less energy in the winter vs. summer, so we don't ever see those kinds of outcomes with snow.

67754885_10216691986126084_4010106884332716032_n.jpg
 
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knightfan7 said:
Started hearing thunder around here (Manasquan Beach) from popup thunderstorms around 1:30. Some rain on and off a bit after 2:00. Heavy rain came a while later. Some street flooding heading into town. Still hearing thunder and rain is sporadic.
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My daughter sent me a video on the beach of a double rainbow a little while ago. Looked very pretty.
 
Jm0513 said:
My daughter sent me a video on the beach of a double rainbow a little while ago. Looked very pretty.
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Yup. My sister lives in Lake Coumo and sent one too. It was gone as fast as it came, but it was beautiful.
 
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bac2therac said:
saw the black clouds to my south and heard thunder but it never came
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You were fortunate. A couple of Sundays ago, I believe when the heat wave broke, we had a thunderstorm in NP. It wasn't too bad. Just a few miles away, Martinsville and Somerville were shredded.
 
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