OT: Updated Thread: Stormy Monday evening (8/7), including tornado watch for some

[RU848789]

Yes, these are heavy downpours going on now, as we've had 2-3" of rain in much of CNJ from about New Hope to Woodbridge and areas within 5-10 miles of that line, necessitating a flash flood warning (below) for this area until 9:30 pm. I was just out driving in it on 27 in Edison/Metuchen and some parts of the road are close to impassable. Could be significant urban flooding in some towns and on some roads.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
518 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
Central Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
Southern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
Southeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
East Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
Trenton, New Brunswick, Somerset, Edison, East Brunswick, South
Brunswick, Sayreville, North Brunswick, Ewing, Princeton,
Pennington, and New Hope.

This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 10 and 12.
Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 70 and 76.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 124 and 132.

And there's a flood watch posted for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC region for Sunday, as the NWS is calling for 1-2" of rain from late Saturday night through Sunday evening (with 3-5" possible in areas that get localized downpours that "train"), which could lead to widespread urban and stream flooding (given how wet it has been, especially along/NW of 95), but here's the thing about the type of storms we're likely to see. We're not going to see a steady moderate rain all day (like one gets with a classic coastal storm, for example) that puts down 1-2" of rain. Our situation is a deep, deep plume of tropical moisture being present (fuel) and an approaching "cold" front (the spark) focusing development of mesoscale convective showers and storms, wherein it will be quite possible to see a few 30-60 minute showers with heavy downpours that put down 1-2" of rain, while the rest of the time is just cloudy.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible. From Midnight EDT tonight through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- High atmospheric moisture content combined with an
approaching front late tonight through Sunday will result in
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast,
with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible in some
areas where thunderstorms are more persistent. These totals
may result in flash flooding, particularly in flood-prone
urban and low-lying areas. Additionally, there will be some
potential for main stem river flooding following the heavy
rain, due to excessive runoff. The greatest threat will be in
areas that have recently had heavy rain and flooding, were
soils are already saturated, in portions of eastern
Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Good luck, folks.

 

[rurichdog]

So far nothing in Yardville section of Hamilton, even though we're under the warning area. I can see the dark clouds off to the north though.

 

[ClassOf02]

Weather absolutely sucks this summer.

 

[mildone]

Water’s good for the grass.

 

[RU848789]

Water’s good for the grass.

The cow gives us milk and cheese and butter.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

Perfect time for my house to develop a roof leak 😩

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just some regular summer rain. No big deal, hardly worth a thread. LOL!

 

[Knight Shift]

MonmoutbOcean border in a major dry slot this summer

 

[T2Kplus20]

MonmoutbOcean border in a major dry slot this summer

I think there is a cream for that.

 

[e5fdny]

Yes, these are heavy downpours going on now, as we've had 2-3" of rain in much of CNJ from about New Hope to Woodbridge and areas within 5-10 miles of that line, necessitating a flash flood warning (below) for this area until 9:30 pm. I was just out driving in it on 27 in Edison/Metuchen and some parts of the road are close to impassable. Could be significant urban flooding in some towns and on some roads.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
518 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
Central Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
Southern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
Southeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
East Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
Trenton, New Brunswick, Somerset, Edison, East Brunswick, South
Brunswick, Sayreville, North Brunswick, Ewing, Princeton,
Pennington, and New Hope.

This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 10 and 12.
Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 70 and 76.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 124 and 132.

And there's a flood watch posted for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC region for Sunday, as the NWS is calling for 1-2" of rain from late Saturday night through Sunday evening (with 3-5" possible in areas that get localized downpours that "train"), which could lead to widespread urban and stream flooding (given how wet it has been, especially along/NW of 95), but here's the thing about the type of storms we're likely to see. We're not going to see a steady moderate rain all day (like one gets with a classic coastal storm, for example) that puts down 1-2" of rain. Our situation is a deep, deep plume of tropical moisture being present (fuel) and an approaching "cold" front (the spark) focusing development of mesoscale convective showers and storms, wherein it will be quite possible to see a few 30-60 minute showers with heavy downpours that put down 1-2" of rain, while the rest of the time is just cloudy.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible. From Midnight EDT tonight through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- High atmospheric moisture content combined with an
approaching front late tonight through Sunday will result in
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast,
with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible in some
areas where thunderstorms are more persistent. These totals
may result in flash flooding, particularly in flood-prone
urban and low-lying areas. Additionally, there will be some
potential for main stem river flooding following the heavy
rain, due to excessive runoff. The greatest threat will be in
areas that have recently had heavy rain and flooding, were
soils are already saturated, in portions of eastern
Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey.

Got caught in that just south of the Raritan toll plaza and before the Cheesequake rest stop ariound 5:20pm this evening.

Heavy enough and flooded enough to drive slowly with my flashers on.

 

[bob-loblaw]

For some reason these storms keep missing northeast monmouth. Ive never seen a weather pattern like this where we keep threading the needle

 

[RU848789]

For some reason these storms keep missing northeast monmouth. Ive never seen a weather pattern like this where we keep threading the needle

My friend in NW Monmouth (Upper Freehold) said he hasn't had any rain all week. And most of LI has barely gotten any rain the past few weeks, while NYC and westward/northward has been hammered. The vagaries of hit or miss summertime t-storms...

 

[RU848789]

Could be a difficult travel day if tomorrow's forecast of 1-2" or more of rainfall pans out, with significant flooding risk, especially for the northern half of NJ/NYC/Hudson Valley and NEPA, as per the NWS graphic in the tweet below.

 

[Joey Bags]

Under tornado warning in Ringoes, center of circulation went over flemington and tracking northeast over whitehouse station/Round Valley Reservoir. Second tornado warning of the month smh

 

[SouthJerseyRU]

Under tornado warning in Ringoes, center of circulation went over flemington and tracking northeast over whitehouse station/Round Valley Reservoir. Second tornado warning of the month smh

Got the warning in Bridgewater. Is there a site where I could see the circulation that you are talking about?

 

[RUDave_01]

I got the warning too and am a little northeast of Flemington. Fortunately/unfortunately, I slept through it because my phone is on silent when I got to bed. Initially, I looked out my window and said "oh, it rained again last night... no surprise there", until I looked at my phone. ugh

 

[RU848789]

Under tornado warning in Ringoes, center of circulation went over flemington and tracking northeast over whitehouse station/Round Valley Reservoir. Second tornado warning of the month smh

Just woke up and read about that one - crazy. See that there are flash flood warnings up for the next few hours for some very heavy rains that fell in Sussex/Warren/Northampton and NW Morris. I'm sure we'll see more later today as heavy downpours hit various areas, with the heaviest precip likely hitting areas along/SE of 95 later (which haven't been hit that hard the past few days for the most part) this morning into the afternoon. More severe storms are possible too. Most areas will likely get 1-2' of rain, but areas that get extended downpours could get 2-5" of rain and I'm sure some areas will get spared much rain getting 1/2" or less. Good luck everyone - I'll be out all day at a disc golf tourney at RU - likely to be a shitshow in the pouring rain at times, lol.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[dconifer]

Looks like a rainy day in Atlantic City…

 

[bac2therac]

Very bad summer season for beaches

There has not been one summer weekend where rain didnt fall or or was forecast and this is now week 8 of 15

 

[OntheBanks]

Perfect time for my house to develop a roof leak 😩

Mine better not leak. It's 3 weeks old.

 

[dconifer]

Very bad summer season for beaches

There has not been one summer weekend where rain didnt fall or or was forecast and this is now week 8 of 15

Wow, I would not have characterized this summer at the beach that way so far. To me, this summer is 8-0...

 

[WhiteBus]

Flash Flooding claimed the lives of 4 people and another 4 are missing in my old neck of the woods near Washington Crossing PA.
Now tornado and flood warnings.

Redirect Notice

 

[iReC89]

Flash Flooding claimed the lives of 4 people and another 4 are missing in my old neck of the woods near Washington Crossing PA.
Now tornado and flood warnings.

Redirect Notice

Was just posting about this -Flash flood swept 3 cars away. Drivers were not trying to drive through flood water. Firefighters were nearby on another call and it happened in front of them. Almost 7” in 45 min. I was just in the area Thursday in a creek taking pictures of a covers bridge. Tragic and scary how fast water can rise.

 

[scarletrider]

Sux to fly home. Been stuck in TX airports. Flights to EWR getting cancelled.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Sux to fly home. Been stuck in TX airports. Flights to EWR getting cancelled.

Same happened to me
Trying to fly home from Ashville NC to EWR

Got a cancellation text at 10am - driving to Charlotte to jump on a 530 to Trenton

Fingers crossed

 

[mildone]

Flash Flooding claimed the lives of 4 people and another 4 are missing in my old neck of the woods near Washington Crossing PA.
Now tornado and flood warnings.

Redirect Notice

Hate hearing about these tragedies when it’s adults, it‘s that much worse when young kids are involved. Awful. I hope that the family that’s missing turns up okay.

 

[scarletrider]

Same happened to me
Trying to fly home from Ashville NC to EWR

Got a cancellation text at 10am - driving to Charlotte to jump on a 530 to Trenton

Fingers crossed

Good luck to you.

United told me the next avaiable flight was tomorrow morning. Decided to fly to Houston then to Dulles and drive home tonite.

Supposedly, the weather condition is worse this afternoon but the flights are taking off to EWR. I just couldn"t get the seats.

Don't know how United cancels flights but definitely not consistent. Sux to fly in and out of EWR these days.

 

[ruinac]

Lots of heavy rain driving 95 and the turnpike from SE PA through central NJ this morning. A few deep puddles made for some hazardous conditions.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Good luck to you.

United told me the next avaiable flight was tomorrow morning. Decided to fly to Houston then to Dulles and drive home tonite.

Supposedly, the weather condition is worse this afternoon but the flights are taking off to EWR. I just couldn"t get the seats.

Don't know how United cancels flights but definitely not consistent. Sux to fly in and out of EWR these days.

Already delayed 30 minutes
I assume the worst with Frontier so I’ll be shocked if things turn out well

 

[Knight Shift]

Mine better not leak. It's 3 weeks old.

Hope you did not use my roofer. LOL. Unlikely, mine was in Monmouth County. Leaked in the same damn place too. 🤷‍♂️

 

[knightfan7]

Looks like NJ may actually luck out a bit. The worst part of the next round of heavy storms will mostly be to the east and hammer the eastern tip of LI and RI to the Cape.

 

[OntheBanks]

Hope you did not use my roofer. LOL. Unlikely, mine was in Monmouth County. Leaked in the same damn place too. 🤷‍♂️

Never had any leaks. Already had 2 layers of shingles on it and needed to replace some 50 year old plywood. Now have new plywood and shingles with a 30 year warranty.
Guy did a great job so I told him I will use him again in 30 years.

 

[newell138]

Wow, I would not have characterized this summer at the beach that way so far. To me, this summer is 8-0...

I was going to say the same. We may have had rain predicted most weekends but up until today the weekends have been pretty nice for the beach. Last weekend was one of the best ever if you factor in water quality and yesterday was great weather and waves

 

[HPNJRUfan]

3" of rain in just over an hour here in EB yesterday... Downpours twice as heavy this morning - enough already!

 

[fatsam98]

Hate hearing about these tragedies when it’s adults, it‘s that much worse when young kids are involved. Awful. I hope that the family that’s missing turns up okay.

6.5-7.0" of rain in 45 minutes!? Is that even possible?

 

[RUaMoose]

Good luck to you.

United told me the next avaiable flight was tomorrow morning. Decided to fly to Houston then to Dulles and drive home tonite.

Supposedly, the weather condition is worse this afternoon but the flights are taking off to EWR. I just couldn"t get the seats.

Don't know how United cancels flights but definitely not consistent. Sux to fly in and out of EWR these days.

Flying these days must be like taking a greyhound bus. Like everything else in this country it’s gone to sh!t. I’ll drive.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Flying these days must be like taking a greyhound bus. Like everything else in this country it’s gone to sh!t. I’ll drive.

Still in Charlotte
Gate changed 3 times
Will be a miracle getting out of here tonight

 

[RU848789]

6.5-7.0" of rain in 45 minutes!? Is that even possible?

It's rare, but it happens (although I haven't seen that number corroborated yet - the radar composite shows maybe 4-5", but perhaps we'll get something official). They got over 5" on Eastern LI today in a bit under 2 hours. The rain that produced all the widespread flooding and a couple of dozen deaths in and around NYC from the remnants of Ida a few years ago was "only" 3.15" in an hour, which is the NYC record for rainfall in one hour.

Just some huge rainfall amounts, which is what this kind of setup (huge tropical airmass funneling towards us with a front coming through to light the fuel, so to speak, for big rains) can bring, which is why I started the thread. Despite T2K again looking like a moron for calling this no big deal, it's been a big deal. So sad to see the tragic loss of those families in Bucks County.

Fortunately, today's rains, while significant, generally weren't so bad that major flooding resulted - just some localized flooding. Even yesterday, when I started the thread after negotiating moderate flooding in Edison, where we got 2" of rain in less than an hour, I remember thinking maybe I should've waited it out, as the water had gotten up to about a foot deep in spots along 27. There wasn't some big stream nearby on a hilly side road, like in Bucks County, so I wasn't worried about my lfe, but it was a bit nervewracking and I did worry about stalling out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/us/pennsylvania-flooding-family.html

 

[RU848789]

Still in Charlotte
Gate changed 3 times
Will be a miracle getting out of here tonight

Good luck - that sucks - say hi to my niece and nephew, lol (they live in Charlotte)...