Thanks once again for the models and updates, Numbers. I got less snow than was forecasted but it was reasonably close and I was prepared for what we got. I don’t expect the models to be perfectly correct.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Good post!You wonder why many are skeptical of weather forecasts! Roll eyes. I also enjoy how doubling the forecast is considered accurate. 6 to 12 inches, 12 to 24 inches? Comical!
How close to the Sourlands do you live? We are only a few mins from the county preserve entrance. Amazing place!Got out this morning to clear a very dense 4-5 inches off the driveway after hearing what sounded like a hailstorm against the windows for a couple of hours last night. Wind was crazy, too, but thankfully only blew off a couple of small Christmas decorations (and thankfully not the big new wreath we put up this year). Had that been snow and not ice pellets, might have been more depth here at the foot of Sourland Mountain, but plenty enough for sledding for the kids this morning.
Agreed. Like many snowstorms, this was clearly going to be impossible for anybody to get perfectly correct everywhere. It's still great that we can get a heads-up days in advance about worst-case (or for snow-lovers like me, best-case) scenarios.Thanks once again for the models and updates, Numbers. I got less snow than was forecasted but it was reasonably close and I was prepared for what we got. I don’t expect the models to be perfectly correct.
I was curious, though, why the sleet line punched much further north in the early evening in E-PA/W-NJ (Bucks-Mercer-Hunterdon-Somerset than it did for Middlesex, SI and points east where it stayed snow until the dry slot hit around 9:30 pm. Obviously, it's mid-level warmth from the S/SW in that area and I thought the 700 mbar low went up the Delaware - was that the reason?That's not accurate. The WAA between 700 and 800mb was surging up the coastal plain. The H7 circulation center was way out by Harrisburg when parts of NJ flipped to sleet.
donde?Actually ended up with more than I thought we would in the end. When it switched to sleet last night, I thought it was donezo. But I guess the pre-dawn switch to snow gave us a few inches more. I think we got about 10 inches here total (tough to tell for sure with all of the drifting).
donde?
One of many reasons I GTFO 🤮Over 40 inches of snow fell in Binghamton, NY and surrounding areas from this storm
Every snowfall map since Tuesday morning has had your area of southern Somerset in their 8-12" band (all posted in this thread), so 5.5" is still a bust, but not a mammoth one. And the zone text product for Somerset from their 4 am Weds morning package is below and it says 10-14", but there are notoriously incomplete, which is why 99% of the world uses the snowfall map.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=xxxzfpphi&wfo=phi&font=120&new=1&version=27
NJZ010-162100-
Somerset-
Including the city of Somerville
347 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
.TODAY...A slight chance of snow this morning, then snow this
afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower
30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of snow near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Snow. Isolated thunderstorms. Snow may be heavy at
times. Additional snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Windy.
Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with snow likely in the morning, then
partly sunny in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 10 to
14 inches possible. Brisk with highs in the lower 30s. North
winds 15 to 20 mph, diminishing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of snow 70 percent.
#truthI dont care what the map showed..the warning statement said 12-20 inches. Its a miserably incorrect forecast by Mt Holly and the thing is that I without any degree knew that wasnt happening
The kid in me has been wishing for a snowstorm similar for years , I guess I’ll have to wait a bit longer.Over 40 inches of snow fell in Binghamton, NY and surrounding areas from this storm
How close to the Sourlands do you live? We are only a few mins from the county preserve entrance. Amazing place!
I will have to see if I can find an H7 archive from yesterday but I think that's on the right track ideawise. But I think the H7 low went even further west than the Delaware,so less waa aloft on the coast.I was curious, though, why the sleet line punched much further north in the early evening in E-PA/W-NJ (Bucks-Mercer-Hunterdon-Somerset than it did for Middlesex, SI and points east where it stayed snow until the dry slot hit around 9:30 pm. Obviously, it's mid-level warmth from the S/SW in that area and I thought the 700 mbar low went up the Delaware - was that the reason?
That's what it looked like opening the door to my garage just before one of my annual Halloween parties back in the day.Over 40 inches of snow fell in Binghamton, NY and surrounding areas from this storm
I rarely drink at home, unless having a party or other kind of gathering. I have a couple annual parties at which, despite me asking people not to do so because I already have so much, people insist in bringing more beer, wine and liquor. I could drink steadily for months and not exhaust my supply. I actually threw out around six or eight cases of beer that was about a year old last February just to clear out some space in an unused room where I was storing it.Will the PA gov ban booze sales right before Christmas too? Imagine the triple FU of having so many snowed-in residents, ordered lock-downs and a no-booze order...hopefully they stocked up!
@RU848789I will have to see if I can find an H7 archive from yesterday but I think that's on the right track ideawise. But I think the H7 low went even further west than the Delaware,so less waa aloft on the coast.
Perfect time for a juice detox!Will the PA gov ban booze sales right before Christmas too? Imagine the triple FU of having so many snowed-in residents, ordered lock-downs and a no-booze order...hopefully they stocked up!
But juice with vodka = better! I mean what else is orange juice good for?!?😉Perfect time for a juice detox!
But juice with vodka = better! I mean what else is orange juice good for?!?😉
You couldn't buy hard liquor for the first 2 months is PA. Just beer and wine.Will the PA gov ban booze sales right before Christmas too? Imagine the triple FU of having so many snowed-in residents, ordered lock-downs and a no-booze order...hopefully they stocked up!
Well I never touch hard liquor.You couldn't buy hard liquor for the first 2 months is PA. Just beer and wine.
Not with your fingers but you tongue has touched it plenty!!Well I never touch hard liquor.
Not with your fingers but you tongue has touched it plenty!!
You need a glass of wine John!I got a foot in Summit. Just enough that my snowblower had a tough time with it. Got through most of it but had to do some by hand. Close to 100 ft long drive way is not fun.
Get a better snowblower...drop a hint to your significant other! 😉I got a foot in Summit. Just enough that my snowblower had a tough time with it. Got through most of it but had to do some by hand. Close to 100 ft long drive way is not fun.
Something we can agree with each other about .I think you meant this to be a pm.
If you want to be obstinate and whine about the warning statement being wrong, when you know they either have to include all or none of the county in that group, have at it - a better complaint would be to split the county in half (same for Middlesex) so they can account for the differences which often occur in these counties, like they've done for several other counties in NJ. But you know well enough to know that the map is the primary source for snow forecasts, since the map has the ability to show the finer details and you were in the 8-12" swath.I dont care what the map showed..the warning statement said 12-20 inches. Its a miserably incorrect forecast by Mt Holly and the thing is that I without any degree knew that wasnt happening
Give it up. Bac is right, it was a horrible forecast and major bust. Also, as I said before, WW nailed it again. Almost perfect forecast by them.If you want to be obstinate and whine about the warning statement being wrong, when you know they either have to include all or none of the county in that group, have at it - a better complaint would be to split the county in half (same for Middlesex) so they can account for the differences which often occur in these counties, like they've done for several other counties in NJ. But you know well enough to know that the map is the primary source for snow forecasts, since the map has the ability to show the finer details and you were in the 8-12" swath.
I still don't know why you get so angry at foreasts that are off a bit, when getting every location right is essentially impossible, given the chaotic nature of numerical modeling and the uncertainty inherent in such forecasts. Back in the 70s and 80s we were lucky to get snowstorms even marginally correct, so the improvements since then are huge. In the big picture, the models were superb in sniffing out a major snowstorm for the entire northeast nearly a week in advance and the forecasts from a day or so before the event across the area were the usual mix of great for some, pretty good for others and pretty bad for some, which is almost inevitable, as per my breakdown in the earlier post,
Nobody was going to predict 30"+ for a huge swath of PA/NY/VT/NH accurately and it turned out that them getting so much snow "robbed" much of our area of some of the snow we were forecast to get (via subsidence). It turns out that much of the NWS 95 corridor forecast of 8-12" was pretty good for NB to NYC, but not nearly as good SW of there to Trenton and in SE PA and certainly the areas NW of you and me predicted to get 12-18" were all short of that by a few inches for most (but there are reports of over 12" in those locations, too). In hindsight a "better" forecast would've been 6-10" for the 95 corridor and 8-14" for the next tier to the NW. They were off a bit - it happens.
Give it up. Bac is right, it was a horrible forecast and major bust. Also, as I said before, WW nailed it again. Almost perfect forecast by them.