I will crouch, corrected. I'd stand, but I think there must have been extenuating circumstances. Also, how deep was the snow at the time?
OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
- Start date
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EURO weenie map...euro qpf is about 1.1 to 1.7 for CJ and over 2 for Monmouth and Ocean
4-6 Northwest NJ
6-12 North Jersey
NYC/Newark about 12
12-16 Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Hunterdon, Union
14-18 Southern 2/3 Middlesex, Mercer
16-24 Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington
4-6 Northwest NJ
6-12 North Jersey
NYC/Newark about 12
12-16 Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Hunterdon, Union
14-18 Southern 2/3 Middlesex, Mercer
16-24 Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington
Euro holds course. Almost locked in for 8-14" in NYC/LI and adjacent NE NJ (between 78 and 80) and 12-20" for Central Jersey from 78 down to 195. Snowfall getting close and should be accumulating before 10 pm in CNJ, maybe even sooner.
1/22 12z Suite estimated snowfall summary, below as per each of the 5 major models, for NYC (along 78, really) and Central Jersey, down to 195. Basically, NYC is looking at at least 10" (10-14" overall) and Central Jersey from 78 down to 195 is looking at 12-20" (not including the NAM in that) going from 78 to 195. Roughly speaking. Even up to 80 looks like 8-10" in the rest of NJ and South Jersey/Philly likely to be 16-24". Looks like we have a serious storm on our hands with blizzard conditions at times for most of tomorrow.
And precip is likely to start before rush hour in Philly and by 7-8 pm in Central Jersey.
NYC / NJ (I-78 - I-195)
NAM: 29-31"
GFS: 11-20"
GGEM: 12-20"
UKMET: 8-20"
EURO: 12-18"
1/22 12z Suite estimated snowfall summary, below as per each of the 5 major models, for NYC (along 78, really) and Central Jersey, down to 195. Basically, NYC is looking at at least 10" (10-14" overall) and Central Jersey from 78 down to 195 is looking at 12-20" (not including the NAM in that) going from 78 to 195. Roughly speaking. Even up to 80 looks like 8-10" in the rest of NJ and South Jersey/Philly likely to be 16-24". Looks like we have a serious storm on our hands with blizzard conditions at times for most of tomorrow.
And precip is likely to start before rush hour in Philly and by 7-8 pm in Central Jersey.
NYC / NJ (I-78 - I-195)
NAM: 29-31"
GFS: 11-20"
GGEM: 12-20"
UKMET: 8-20"
EURO: 12-18"
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Shit! Im in camden county. I thought it wasnt starting till after ruah hour???! What happened? Now we are getting rush hour apocalypse?
The National Weather Service forecast is now for the storm to reach the Phiiladelphia area in the p.m. rush hour. The storm is evidently moving more quickly than anticipated. Perhaps a miracle will happen and that will hold down accumulations?
Not sure about that, prof. If you read RU#s' and bac's posts above (on this page), the latest model guidances seem to be inching the storm further northward than originally predicted, and thus increasing snowfall predictions for everyone.
For those interested in what I send out on email, here it is. I swear I thought this was going to be short, lol. As you can see, really wanted to emphasize the bigger storm and early arrival...
I don't usually do midday updates (you know, I work for a living), but felt one was warranted given the evolving situation with the impending snowstorm. Basically, the trend towards a much more substantial snowfall, which we saw start yesterday, has continued this morning. And especially since snowfall is now likely to start near Philly by 5-6 pm and in CNJ by 7-8 pm - this won't be heavy stuff snow until late evening or after midnight, but most people weren't prepared for any snow before midnight.
Now, every major model is in agreement that we'll at least get 8-14" for the NYC area, LI and adjacent NE NJ suburbs between I-80 and I-78 (all the way out to NE PA) and that we'll likely get 12-20" of snowfall in Central Jersey/eastern PA, between I-78 and I-195/I276, with the lesser numbers near 78 and the greater numbers near 195/276. This includes every major NJ/PA Merck site. And south of there, SE PA/South Jersey are likely to get 16-24", except somewhat less within 5-10 miles of the ocean, south of maybe Toms River, due to sleet/rain mixing in. And north of 80 we'll still likely see 5-10" with amounts winding down north of I-84.
Blizzard conditions are likely for much of our area, especially as one gets within 20-40 miles of the coast with 25-35 mph sustained winds and gusts to 40-50 mph (more right at the coast). Coastal flooding will be moderate to maybe major in spots, but still nowhere near Sandy levels. Will also likely see power outages due to the combo of heavy snow (especially where it's wet, i.e., along and SE of I-95) and high winds.
Could this still change and less snow/less severe conditions occur or could more occur? Of course, but this is looking to be highly likely now, with the storm starting this evening. If interested in the model snowfall summary for the 5 major models, see below for the 12z suite (used 7 am EST data as the initialization point). NYC/CNJ out to eastern PA (I-78 down to I-195/I-276). The first number is the snowfall for NYC and along 78 out to eastern PA and the second number is the snowfall along 195 and 276 in Central NJ and Eastern PA. Roughly speaking of course, to give people an idea. I did not use the NAM model in my estimates for snowfall for the area, as those numbers just seem ridiculous.
Model Summary
NAM: 29-31"
GFS: 11-20"
GGEM: 12-20"
UKMET: 8-20"
EURO: 12-18"
I fully expect the NWS and other sources to up their snowfall forecasts this afternoon. I've included links to the relevant sites, should you want to check on those numbers. Enjoy the snow, but be safe out there.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
I don't usually do midday updates (you know, I work for a living), but felt one was warranted given the evolving situation with the impending snowstorm. Basically, the trend towards a much more substantial snowfall, which we saw start yesterday, has continued this morning. And especially since snowfall is now likely to start near Philly by 5-6 pm and in CNJ by 7-8 pm - this won't be heavy stuff snow until late evening or after midnight, but most people weren't prepared for any snow before midnight.
Now, every major model is in agreement that we'll at least get 8-14" for the NYC area, LI and adjacent NE NJ suburbs between I-80 and I-78 (all the way out to NE PA) and that we'll likely get 12-20" of snowfall in Central Jersey/eastern PA, between I-78 and I-195/I276, with the lesser numbers near 78 and the greater numbers near 195/276. This includes every major NJ/PA Merck site. And south of there, SE PA/South Jersey are likely to get 16-24", except somewhat less within 5-10 miles of the ocean, south of maybe Toms River, due to sleet/rain mixing in. And north of 80 we'll still likely see 5-10" with amounts winding down north of I-84.
Blizzard conditions are likely for much of our area, especially as one gets within 20-40 miles of the coast with 25-35 mph sustained winds and gusts to 40-50 mph (more right at the coast). Coastal flooding will be moderate to maybe major in spots, but still nowhere near Sandy levels. Will also likely see power outages due to the combo of heavy snow (especially where it's wet, i.e., along and SE of I-95) and high winds.
Could this still change and less snow/less severe conditions occur or could more occur? Of course, but this is looking to be highly likely now, with the storm starting this evening. If interested in the model snowfall summary for the 5 major models, see below for the 12z suite (used 7 am EST data as the initialization point). NYC/CNJ out to eastern PA (I-78 down to I-195/I-276). The first number is the snowfall for NYC and along 78 out to eastern PA and the second number is the snowfall along 195 and 276 in Central NJ and Eastern PA. Roughly speaking of course, to give people an idea. I did not use the NAM model in my estimates for snowfall for the area, as those numbers just seem ridiculous.
Model Summary
NAM: 29-31"
GFS: 11-20"
GGEM: 12-20"
UKMET: 8-20"
EURO: 12-18"
I fully expect the NWS and other sources to up their snowfall forecasts this afternoon. I've included links to the relevant sites, should you want to check on those numbers. Enjoy the snow, but be safe out there.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
12z Canadian puts the northern edge of the heavy snow right at the NYC/Long Island area with little snow north into Connecticut. Very similar to the 12z euro. The blizzard brings a foot or more from NYC/LI/NJ on south with some spots seeing over 20 inches on this run. Mid-Atlantic continues to be the bullseye with some spots getting 30 inches of snow
Snow started here, about 10 miles south of D.C., around 1:30. Streets still not covered, but I know it's going to get a lot worse.
Winter Weather Emergency declared for NYC. Goes into effect at 8am Saturday. Stay off the roads unless it's urgent travel. Any vehicles on NYC roads in the way of snow plows will be towed at owners expense.
that was a 3 foot snowstorm. No extenuating circumstances it was a snowstorm. Ive been in storms where you cant differentiate where the road is and where it is not. some times the storms get to far ahead of ya and when they do you can lose the road and get stuck very easily, its normally the first truck that gets stuck, once the plow has more on it than the truck can push ya start runnin into problems.
agree. I was just hoping that something good would happen. I have been telling everyone to try to get home early tonight, and to be patient if they can't. I don't know about the rest of RU, but RU-Camden has sensibly cancelled all Saturday classes.
18Z NAM absolutely crushes everyone with 2-3 feet of snow. It's still all by itself with those amounts, but the other models have all moved towards it with snowfall amounts, even if their analysis is different. It's possible the models aren't handling the well above normal sea surface temps in the Atlantic right now, the screaming subtropical jet stream or the combination of moisture plumes feeding this beast from the Pacific, the Gulf and the Atlantic. And the incredible gradient between the SSTs in the Atlantic and the cold air from the Arctic is setting up an unusually strong baroclinic zone right at the coast and differences in air masses are what fuels convection and vertical velocities, leading to precipitation from a storm. Models don't always handle outlier situations like this well.
I tried plowing some residentials in a developement back in 1996 while it was snowing and I totally lost where
Maybe the NAM just sucks.
Maybe the NAM just sucks.
All Rutgers campuses are closed tomorrow. And in Newark, they've wisely banned parking in surface lots so they can actually plow effectively.
Wedding I was supposed to work tomorrow was moved to a couple hours from now. Turned off electric on 1st floor, locked the door, and headed out. Sitting in a motel near work. I plan on being here till at least Sunday. Hoping for the best for everyone.
Mt holly new snow map..12-18 central jersey...8-12 north jersey...18-24 trenton philly south jersey. Pretty much in step with euro
The Nam is almost always overdone by 40-50 percent so take that out and you get what the other models are showing
The Nam is almost always overdone by 40-50 percent so take that out and you get what the other models are showing
The difference between the nam and gfs is the gfs doesnt stall and pushes east. If we can get that happen then we wont get 2 feet..and quite frankly everyone should be hoping the gfs/euro is correct..we dont need 2-3 feet which could cause devestation
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...
.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY SNOWFALL...
STRONG WINDS AND LIKELY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
NJZ010-012>015-230930-
/O.CON.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.160123T0500Z-160124T1500Z/
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...TRENTON
329 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW... GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
RESULTING IN TIMES OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...14 TO 20 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WET FOR A TIME SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOVELING OF HEAVY WET SNOW
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW
WILL CLING TO WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES. ROADS WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
BANDS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...
.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY SNOWFALL...
STRONG WINDS AND LIKELY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
NJZ010-012>015-230930-
/O.CON.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.160123T0500Z-160124T1500Z/
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...TRENTON
329 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY...
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW... GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
RESULTING IN TIMES OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...14 TO 20 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WET FOR A TIME SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOVELING OF HEAVY WET SNOW
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW
WILL CLING TO WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES. ROADS WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
BANDS.
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