You know, the second video would mean more if that beach area wasn't flat as a pancake and had some elevation. Perhaps we can all agree that Marco didn't sustain any significant wind damage. Is that okay?
OT: Hurricane Ian to Bring Major to Catastrophic Impacts to Cuba/Florida (and 2022 Tropical Weather Thread):
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Given the 6:35 am upgrade of Ian to 155 mph and the new graphics/forecast put out by the NHC, I decided to delete my post from about 20 minutes ago and replace it with this one to avoid confusion...
𝗜𝗮𝗻 𝘂𝗽 𝘁𝗼 𝟭𝟱𝟱 𝗺𝗽𝗵 𝗻𝗼𝘄 - 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗺.
Unfortunately for FL, Ian strengthened significantly after completing its eyewall replacement cycle overnight, going from 120 mph at 11 pm to 140 mph as of 5 am and then to 155 mph as of 6:35 am, as the NHC just put out an emergency update with that new information from a hurricane hunter flight. Pressure has dropped from 952 mbar to 942 mbar overnight and then dropped to 936 mbar as of the 6:35 am update, linked below.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.../MIATCUAT4+shtml/280955.shtml?
This is now a very strong Cat 4 hurricane and almost a cat 5 hurricane (157 mph) and unlikely to weaken much in the next 12-15 hours before landfall, which is currently forecast to be in the Cape Haze/Boca Grande barrier island area and then inland, heading NNE, about 5-10 miles west of the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area (a minor shift of 5-10 miles NW of the 11 pm track, as Ian made a northward wobble overnight); this track would be about 20-25 miles NW of Captiva and Fort Myers and about 40-50 miles NW of Naples.
The storm surge forecast was also updated, given the upgraded strength of the storm, increasing storm surge forecasts by a few feet across the board from landfall and south of there with 12-16' of storm surge now predicted from Englewood to Bonita Beach and 7-11' from Bonita Beach to just south of Marco Island. This is very bad.
Note that hurricane force winds extend about 40 miles from the center of the storm and tropical storm force winds extend about 175 miles from the center of the storm. If this track verifies, Naples/Marco Island would be spared the worst of the winds, but not the worst of the storm surge, as per the NHC surge forecast. And to make matters worse, both the GFS and Euro models show the storm slowing down in its path across Florida, taking about 36 hours to go from landfall to just north of Daytona Beach, exacerbating the already torrential amount of rainfall forecast to fall (10-15" and locally up to 20" across a large swath of FL, including Tampa, Orlando and JAX). And there have already been dozens of small tornadoes with many more to come, especially along and on the right side of the storm's track.
Beyond that, Ian will emerge off the NE FL coast, likely still as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and then head up the coast and back onto land somewhere around Savannah, GA on Friday afternoon, before dissipating to a remnant low by the time it reaches Spartanburg, SC late Saturday night and moisture from the system and a secondary low, which will move towards DelMarVa will likely bring heavy rain (2-4" possible) to DelMarVa and probably SNJ from late Saturday into Monday, with maybe 1-2" of rain for CNJ/NNJ/NYC area (could be much drier, could be wetter - high uncertainty on rainfall for our area).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/280856.shtml?
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
It's looking like Ian is going to make landfall between Englewood and Cape Haze in the next few hours, which means everywhere from about Sarasota to Fort Myers and inland of landfall about 20-30 miles will be experiencing 100+ mph wind gusts, with 140+ mph gusts likely within 10-15 miles of landfall, i.e., from about Venice to Boca Grande. The NWS just issued an extreme wind warning for the Cape Coral area and many more will be coming.
Also, the 11 am NHC update is out and it's not pretty as Ian is still a 155 mph strong Cat 4 storm with landfall in a few hours, but the eyewall will be onshore in the next hour or two (landfall is when the center of circulation is over land). And rather than rehashing what I said a few hours ago, above, which hasn't changed much, I thought posting the NHC Public Advisory would be of interest. Also, I'm about to head out for the day (beach, disc golf and some poker in AC), so I won't be posting much more today. Good luck to all at risk (and friends/family of board members who might be at risk).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/281056.shtml?
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to the mouth of the South Santee River, South Carolina.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida
northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to the South Santee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Little
River Inlet, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian
is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it
moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A Weatherflow station on Sanibel Island recently reported
sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 75 mph
(121 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St.
Johns River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area shortly, with
tropical storm conditions ongoing.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting overnight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday
through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east
coast currently, and should spread up northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next
few hours.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Great question - depends on the location and proximity to the storm, which greatly affects wind direction over time, which is the key to surge - likely in the next 3-6 hours for most, as per comments on TWC, but I've never actually seen timetables for surge - could be buried deep on the NHC page.
If folks really want to follow the progression of the storm, including great posts/tweets/graphics from pro meteorologists and very knowledgeable posters, the thread on AmericanWx is very good.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58177-hurricane-ian/page/90/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58177-hurricane-ian/page/90/
A good example of this is the current situation at Marco. They're seeing water levels about 5' or so above Mean High Water, but it's currently **low tide**. High tide is expected about 6:30 this evening, when the surge should be just around peak.
T should simply stfu and let the adults post in this thread. Naples surge is now up to 5" with extensive flooding and much worse to come - surge flooding will likely be catastrophic for many as we've been saying.
The graphic in this post tells precisely the same story as my previous post. They're seeing flooding at low water. The tide will exacerbate the situation.
Great point - was talking about what "surge" actually means a few pages ago and it's height above mean high tide mark (i.e., normally dry ground). There was some idiot on MSNBC last night saying it was height above dry ground, in general, i.e., on main street in any coastal town, lol. And this guy was a met...
TWC just reported record storm surge of 7 feet in Naples and as 4Real noted, that will get worse with higher tide and persistent onshore winds from Ian. But it's all "good" there according to Troll2K.
The city of Bradenton, Florida, said their waste water treatment plant is full “and is in danger of overflowing,” according to a post on Facebook.
“We have received word from our Public Works staff that our wastewater treatment plant is full and is in danger of overflowing,” the post said.
The city, located just south of St. Petersburg, is seeing the impacts of Category 4 Hurricane Ian.
Bradenton is asking residents to conserve water. “Don't do dishes or laundry, flush only when necessary, limit showering,” the city said.
“We have received word from our Public Works staff that our wastewater treatment plant is full and is in danger of overflowing,” the post said.
The city, located just south of St. Petersburg, is seeing the impacts of Category 4 Hurricane Ian.
Bradenton is asking residents to conserve water. “Don't do dishes or laundry, flush only when necessary, limit showering,” the city said.
But there's no wind and that makes it OK. 🥴
Someone seems to forget that during Sandy, flooding was a much bigger problem than wind. Water damage is often much worse than wind damage in these storms.
The lyrics of Tool's Aenema come to mind wrt to T:
Some say a comet will fall from the sky
Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves
Followed by fault lines that cannot sit still
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits
I would say surge was a bigger issue than rain during Sandy. Wind was still a major issue with many large trees down, causing power outages, death and injury in some cases.
As someone's whose homes were enveloped by a small lake one block away from our homes and the Atlantic Ocean (1/2 block away from our homes), I would agree.
Last edited:
It's about to get real bad in areas experiencing the eyewall coming ashore, from Venice to Captiva and then inland of there, as per the report below with gusts over 100 mph from Naples to Captiva so far and more to come. Formal landfall should be in the next hour or two.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281659
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...
A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass,
Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and
a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near
Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77
mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth
Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently
reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.)
The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb
(28.61 inches).
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281659
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...
A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass,
Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and
a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near
Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77
mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth
Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently
reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.)
The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb
(28.61 inches).
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
That's not it. T couldn't care less about the storm or about accuracy or any of that.
He just wants to burn the thread down because he has some sort of childish problem w/#s. It never fails. Wherever #s goes, T shows up behaving exactly like a grade-schooler w/a poor upbringing.
It's a strange way to find entertainment, but apparently that's what he enjoys. 🤷♂️
His daddy never taught him to find his Special Purpose.
That's so bad. You have to figure water will be up to the second balcony on those buildings.
Yep, that's all he cares about and he doesn't hide it, but it's still no less annoying. They used to ban him from weather threads and they were much more pleasant/useful...
It doesn't annoy me at all. I'm just continually baffled over why any purported adult would spend so much time being so outwardly childish.
I will never understand why people don't heed warnings. I get it that a major hurricane hasn't hit that area for 100 years, but forecasts had this thing pegged pretty well for days. It's a lottery that you don't want to play.
Required weatherman in a hurricane video.
Best wishes again - looks like Tampa might be spared from the very worst of this.
Best wishes again - looks like Tampa might be spared from the very worst of this.
And Sanibel is naturally primed for a worst-case scenario. As I posted yesterday, the island has a long southern exposure, which is unique among the barrier islands. The entire southern shore has been exposed to the worst of this storm. The info coming out of there over the next 12 hours is going to be stark.
Terrible. It will probably be altered forever. Florida is going to need the nation's full support after this.
Umm, folks ... I would be running for high ground if I saw this.
100%. No question. I sincerely hope that no politician dares to oppose aid to Florida.
Ron DeSantis voted against Hurricane Sandy aid. How will he vote next week?
The Sandy aid bill, providing $9.7B in aid, otherwise passed unanimously through the Senate.
floridapolitics.com
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