OT: Hurricane Ian to Bring Major to Catastrophic Impacts to Cuba/Florida (and 2022 Tropical Weather Thread):
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Areas west of about Tallahassee probably won't even see any rain, so yes...
Kid3 has successfully executed "Escape From Orlando" and is currently inbound aboard a 737 MAX-8 and one is reminded of the whole "frying pan / fire" thing.
Instead of bothering with this thread, for those interested, all the up-to-date info that you need on the storm:
weather.com
National and Local Weather Radar, Daily Forecast, Hurricane and information from The Weather Channel and weather.com
The Weather Channel and weather.com provide a national and local weather forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and hurricane coverage
weather.com
Instead of bothering with this thread, for those interested, all the up-to-date info that you need on the storm:
National and Local Weather Radar, Daily Forecast, Hurricane and information from The Weather Channel and weather.com
The Weather Channel and weather.com provide a national and local weather forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and hurricane coverage
You're a disturbingly petty individual.
Great to have your charm and class back on the board. Got a great car story for you......for another thread. :)
And it was kind of you to recognize that I have completed charm school.
Same. My 95 yo father lives in Bonita Springs & my brother lives in Bradenton...both bracing for the hurricane. I told my Dad (& brother) to please keep in touch with me periodically and my Dad said he’ll be too busy, don’t worry. Smdh. 🙏🤞
I really appreciate all the relevant weather updates in this thread. Thank you & please keep them coming.
Go RU!
Diane
Great graphic from a met on AmericanWx, showing all of the landfall locations from the 12Z model suite from a few hours ago. Everywhere from Tampa to Fort Myers needs to be on high alert for landfall, and especially everyone from about Sarasota to Port Charlotte - and with regard to storm surge and the highest winds, everyone south to at least Naples could easily be in the worst of it, especially if the track shifts any further south. At the 2 pm advisory, Ian had strengthened back up to 120 mph winds and looks like it will still get stronger. Next NHC update is at 5 pm. People along the FL Gulf Coast have until about 6 am tomorrow to finish preps and/or evacuate, as conditions will start going really downhill after that. Back to the beach for me, lol.
Do you think captiva island survives? Very small land width. Was just there and have some interest in it not being wiped out.
My parents are in Holiday (Short 20 min drive from tarpon springs....they left this AM to Tennessee....not worth it to them to risk it...I am hoping the same as you..
Wasn't part of Captiva split apart from Sanibel years ago after Hurricane Charley?
My aunt lives in the condos at the base of the bridge to get over the Intercoastal onto Sanibel. Luckily she came up to NJ for the month. Hopefully everyone stays safe.
Bradenton will be a mess, but should be just north of the track, so the storm surge won't be as bad as it looked yesterday; however, the winds will likely be 100+ mph, so that's not a fun place to be. But Bonita Springs will likely be worse, especially with regard to storm surge - if your father lives anywhere near the water, he should evacuate, unless he's in a seriously built structure. My dad said the same things before Frances hit Vero Beach in 2004 and after having lived through it (the worst was hour after hour of screaming wind and rain and he had a badly leaking roof), he evacuates every time now.
It won't be fun, but both Tarpon Springs and Holiday ought to now be far enough north of the track to be spared the worst impacts, so evacuation would certainly be considered optional. Having said that, though, both locations are still within the landfall cone, so I'd be pretty motivated to get further north.
Not saying it won't survive, but it's very, very likely to experience the worst storm surge and winds in recorded history, which will likely damage many to most structures and will destroy some. Anyone on the coast (or in a surge prone area, which can be inland in inlets or bays or even rivers) within 20 miles of Captiva ought to have evacuated already.
Spoke to my 80 yr. old mom in NW Naples to see how she's doing. Not a worry in the world except how long the power will be out as she might not have enough gas for the home generator. Storm shutters on and prepped the house. I'm worried and I got from her, "if I was worried about hurricanes, I wouldn't have moved to Florida".
I would be imploring her to get out now. Not trying to scare you, but NW Naples, especially if anywhere near the coast and if not in a very well built structure, is going to likely be right on the edge of the worst impacts - could get lucky if landfall is near Sarasota, but if the SE shift continues, it could be close to ground zero. Good luck.
Toast? No. Marco is currently just south of the guidance envelope which would give them sustains tropical storm winds, if it holds.
The island does have a broad SSE exposure, however and water should start to pile up on that shoreline before the night is through.
Not "toast" but not good. Just like my post above for NW Naples, Marco won't get the worst of it with the current track, but will still get 6-8' of storm surge - but if the track shifts 10-20 miles further SE, then Marco and Naples get very close to the bullseye for this storm and will be in very bad shape.
We just booked a trip into Ft Myers for Feb staying at a friend's home on Marco Island. We have been casually scouting property there.
My parents prepped their condo in East Naples and will be riding it out. They made it through Irma fine. "We moved to SW Florida, so of course every Cat4 & Cat5 storm now takes direct aim here". If anyone ever wondered where my sardonic humor comes from, both my parents express it regularly.
Yeah, that's like talking to a brick wall. When she built the house in the late 90's it was all upgraded to the latest hurricane specs. So she thinks she lives in Fort Knox. She's also inland, so I could implore as much as I want, but it'll fall on deaf ears. She'll ride it out just like she's done for past storms.
Vacationed in Marco twice prior to COVID. Enjoyed it much more than expected. Chartered a few times which was a blast. As of now, it will be fine. The storm is plenty north to spare it.
Yes, we used these guys twice during our 2019 trip. Very easy and convenient. Flexible on timing and tour plans. We are booked for a Marco trip next June and will use them again:
Banyan Charters
banyancharters.com
Option 2 - We also used this husband/wife team the year before and had great experience. However, them seem not to do this full-time, so were unavailable in 2019.
Marco Island Boat Tours | Naples | Shelling & Dolphins - Sea Shell Tours
Marco Island & Naples Boat Tours - Enjoy both dolphins & shelling. Explore the waters of Marco Island & Naples on a personalized & private boat tour.
seashelltours.com
Have you been visiting Marco a lot recently?
Thanks for that. No, it's been a long while. But good friends just completed building a second home, and we hope to be going at least once per year. And hopefully have them to our place in Sedona. As I noted, I have been casually looking at properties, but we want to get a better feel by staying there.Yes, we used these guys twice during our 2019 trip. Very easy and convenient. Flexible on timing and tour plans. We are booked for Marco trip next June and will use them again:
Banyan Charters
Option 2 - We also used this husband/wife team the year before and had great experience. However, them seem not to do this full-time, so were unavailable in 2019.
Marco Island Boat Tours | Naples | Shelling & Dolphins - Sea Shell Tours
Marco Island & Naples Boat Tours - Enjoy both dolphins & shelling. Explore the waters of Marco Island & Naples on a personalized & private boat tour.seashelltours.com
Have you been visiting Marco a lot recently?
Yes, we used these guys twice during our 2019 trip. Very easy and convenient. Flexible on timing and tour plans. We are booked for a Marco trip next June and will use them again:
Banyan Charters
Option 2 - We also used this husband/wife team the year before and had great experience. However, them seem not to do this full-time, so were unavailable in 2019.
Marco Island Boat Tours | Naples | Shelling & Dolphins - Sea Shell Tours
Marco Island & Naples Boat Tours - Enjoy both dolphins & shelling. Explore the waters of Marco Island & Naples on a personalized & private boat tour.seashelltours.com
Have you been visiting Marco a lot recently?
So... these aren't fishing charters?
What about Venice Florida?
I know people there looks like it could be ground zero.
What do you say on this?
Maybe share that on the TWC site rather than putting it on this thread. Maybe they will be interested, i think you have the link
Not sure. I think they can do fishing, but we were more into sightseeing and checking out secluded beaches.
Ironically, my wife went to college in AZ and Sedona/Flagstaff is a very likely 2nd home possibility for us. It's a great compliment to a NJ shore home.
I'm sure you know much of this, but remember, Irma was a 115 mph Cat 3 that struck Marco Island, about 15-20 miles south of Naples, meaning Naples was on the weak side of the storm. If Ian comes ashore around Port Charlotte (~60 miles north), as a 125-130 mph storm as currently forecast, I'd agree that Naples will not have much more than maybe 70 mph gusts, but the surge is still going to be significantly greater than what it was for Irma, being on the strong side of the storm. And if the track moves another 20 miles south, Naples could then experience catastrophic storm surge and hurricane force winds.
My belief is that if you are within 50-100 miles of the center of this thing - you are in danger whether you live in Naples ; Fort Myers or Tampa. No meteorologist can predict the precise town / location etc where the eyewall etc will hit. Thus if you’re near this estimate of the location - say within 50-100 miles - take precautions. !
Venice is a really tough call. If the current forecast holds, the storm surge there will likely be a bit less than predicted a day ago (and even now), as the track now takes Ian about 20 miles south of Venice, so Venice would be on the weaker side of the storm - having said that, though 20 miles is still close enough to be on the edge of the eyewall with 100+ mph winds. However, it's still quite possible Ian makes a direct hit on Venice, as 20 miles is well within the track uncertainty at 24-30 hours out (the historical uncertainty is around 35 miles at 24 hours out), so things could be worse with a direct hit. For me, it's close enough to where landfall could be to not want to be there...
You must've gone to charm school. T2K pulled the same crap on the run-up to Sandy, downplaying the potential impacts right up until landfall, as he thinks trolling is even ok in life and death scenarios. And I get that people should likely be seeking critical safety info from official sources, but there are some who do come here and other message boards for such info and they shouldn't have to put up with his crap.
