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OT: Round 2 Rainstorm 1/12 (not as bad as round 1); Rainstorm 1/9-10 - Major Urban/Stream Flooding, High Winds and Coastal Flooding Likely

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Some serious rainfall expected, with the heaviest rains forecast to be right over the Passaic and Raritan River basins. The 2nd graphic shows the overview of predicted max flooding levels for all of the major river basins in our region, with the purple ones indicating major flood stage being reached and the red ones indicating moderate flood stage being reached. One can then click on the dot and get the full flooding forecast for this storm for any individual river gauge - I included the Passaic at Pine Brook (showing major flooding) and the Raritan at Bound Brook (showing almost major flooding), below, as examples.

This is exactly the kind of important rainfall/flooding data one can get from a friggin app. Not.

https://www.weather.gov/marfc/

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Curious. If the data is available, why couldn't (and really shouldn't being the better word) an app access it/exhibit it etc? Just a general question.
 
For folks in the Monty/Hills/Prince/etc. area. The Millstone River is still crazy high. The Griggstown Causeway was already very close to flood level (drove by on the way home from work). LOL. If we get a lot of rain, there gonna be problems.
 
I’m coming up from Philly for the game. Is the NJ turnpike and I-95 going to be a shit show on the way home?
 
For folks in the Monty/Hills/Prince/etc. area. The Millstone River is still crazy high. The Griggstown Causeway was already very close to flood level (drove by on the way home from work). LOL. If we get a lot of rain, there gonna be problems.
That area is always trouble. Would not be surprised to see those causeways closed in the next couple of days.
 
Murphy has declared a state of emergency effective 5pm tomorrow - just got a call from Hillsborough schools that all after school activities are cancelled. He's not restricting travel, but that will also dampen attendance for tomorrow night.
 
That area is always trouble. Would not be surprised to see those causeways closed in the next couple of days.
Seriously, you can go spit in the Millstone near the Griggs causeway and it will flood. It's that super saturated. My area is used to the Griggs and Blackwell Mills causeways closing, but a significant amount of rain will also overflow River Road in Belle Mead and the River Road at the Monty/Princeton border.
 
Seriously, you can go spit in the Millstone near the Griggs causeway and it will flood. It's that super saturated. My area is used to the Griggs and Blackwell Mills causeways closing, but a significant amount of rain will also overflow River Road in Belle Mead and the River Road at the Monty/Princeton border.
You can almost count on closures in those areas after tomorrow’s rain.
 
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It's really amusing reading the last hour or two of this thread - those of you going after others who you think troll the weather threads have basically succeeded in hijacking the thread. Think about that for a moment.
 
It's really amusing reading the last hour or two of this thread - those of you going after others who you think troll the weather threads have basically succeeded in hijacking the thread. Think about that for a moment.
Not true at all. Some of us have been trying to get the thread back on track. And you use the term troll a little too loosely for being a mod. What have you done to clean up these threads?
 
It's really amusing reading the last hour or two of this thread - those of you going after others who you think troll the weather threads have basically succeeded in hijacking the thread. Think about that for a moment.
And another ironic thing is that as the thread was getting back on track, you brought it back to troll/argue mode. Whatever. Let’s move on.
 
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From probably the most predatory, slimy source out there, lol. They're well known for trying to generate clicks, especially as they're the ones who started putting out 45 and then even 90 day forecasts, which are 100% useless. They also wanted to privatize the NWS and have private companies charging for weather data and forecasts. I'm sure their short-term forecasts are fine, but why give clicks to a company like that?

https://www.sciencealert.com/how-many-days-can-you-trust-the-weather-forecast-for
And their founder & chief executive is a Penn State graduate.
 
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I’m coming up from Philly for the game. Is the NJ turnpike and I-95 going to be a shit show on the way home?
During Ida's flooding, the Turnpike was my only realistic route to work. All the little unnamed tributaries flooded 130, 1, and all the county roads between Hamilton and Cranbury.
 
Change game time to 1pm and have BTN broadcast game.Those close by can attend the game without worrying about road conditions after 5pm.The other alternative is to reschedule game later in the season.Maryland had to delay start of a recent game because the roof was leaking.
 
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I really don't know how bad it's going to be tomorrow night, but Wednesday is going to be ugly. I full expect both of my first choice routes home from work to be flooded:

Hamburg Turnpike:

FOCQRTH.png


Route 23:

JTCGLxD.png
 
It's really amusing reading the last hour or two of this thread - those of you going after others who you think troll the weather threads have basically succeeded in hijacking the thread. Think about that for a moment.
In the past, you guys used to moderate these threads and they were much better, at least IMO. There were a whole bunch of true trolling attempts to derail the thread on page 1, but nobody took the bait. The stuff the past few hours was more just bickering, which is par for the course for the board for most threads, although it's a bit mind boggling that we can't have unanimity that 45+ day forecasts are shite. However, it's a fair point that I probably should have left the company-bashing out of my post and focused on just bashing the ludicrous 45+ day forecasts (and really, anything beyond about 10 days). Back to the football game...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...r-you-cannot-be-serious-new-45-day-forecasts/
 
In the past, you guys used to moderate these threads and they were much better, at least IMO. There were a whole bunch of true trolling attempts to derail the thread on page 1, but nobody took the bait. The stuff the past few hours was more just bickering, which is par for the course for the board for most threads, although it's a bit mind boggling that we can't have unanimity that 45+ day forecasts are shite. However, it's a fair point that I probably should have left the company-bashing out of my post and focused on just bashing the ludicrous 45+ day forecasts (and really, anything beyond about 10 days). Back to the football game...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...r-you-cannot-be-serious-new-45-day-forecasts/
i would not post wa post..just saying

lets get bac to discussing this event
 
I really don't know how bad it's going to be tomorrow night, but Wednesday is going to be ugly. I full expect both of my first choice routes home from work to be flooded:

Hamburg Turnpike:

FOCQRTH.png


Route 23:

JTCGLxD.png
Yep, a lot of folks don't realize that the larger rivers take a lot longer to reach the various flood stages, whereas smaller creeks and streams will usually reach their max flood stage within a few hours of precip ending.

If there is anyone out there who thinks they might have to negotiate a potentially flooded stream or river, the flood stage maps are indispensable and easy to access/read from the link below. In addition to being able to click on the dot for a specific river location/gauge to get the hydrographs Spanky and I have shared (showing flood stages), one can also click on the "inundation mapping" button to get the map below which shows, for a given flood stage (this is 32.1', which is about what the Raritan at Bound Brook is forecast to reach on Weds), the depth of inundation in the area and one can click on a flooded area to get the expected depth.

https://www.weather.gov/marfc/

r0UrIeN.jpg
 
The governor is a jackass for the state of emergency already. My son’s office told him not to come in tomorrow. He generally only goes in until lunchtime anyway due to their hybrid schedule. The rain is not even supposed to start until 1-2 PM up here. Screws up the rest of his week because Wednesday will be the sh*t show.
 
We are building the Ark in our back yard.

You get flooding in your part of MontyVille?
In my neighborhood, no. Never been a problem. The adjacent neighborhood (lower land) gets totally f'ed up due to ground water rising into basements. Their water table is very high. No surface flooding, which in some ways is easier to deal with.

During flooding events, I always think about Manville and the Lost Valley. I was on the local flood control commission for 5-6 years and tons of Manville residents would attend. Their stories were always heartbreaking. And all due to the MF'ing overdevelopment in CNJ, much of it pushed by the state.
 
The governor is a jackass for the state of emergency already. My son’s office told him not to come in tomorrow. He generally only goes in until lunchtime anyway due to their hybrid schedule. The rain is not even supposed to start until 1-2 PM up here. Screws up the rest of his week because Wednesday will be the sh*t show.
This could save people’s lives, your son isn’t the center of the universe. Flooding happens everywhere now.
 
The governor is a jackass for the state of emergency already. My son’s office told him not to come in tomorrow. He generally only goes in until lunchtime anyway due to their hybrid schedule. The rain is not even supposed to start until 1-2 PM up here. Screws up the rest of his week because Wednesday will be the sh*t show.
Well that's kind of on your son's office. They could've just closed early. Remember, a SOE typically is a way for the State to put resources in place in advance of expected emergencies and it does not mean people can’t drive or that events are cancelled. See the excerpt from the linked article. RU may still decide to postpone events like the game or close the U, but that would be almost unprecedented for a rain event that's not tropical storm related. Yes, flooding is likely to be bad (but much moreso early Weds than Tues evening unless the rain overperforms) but I see no reason to postpone this far in advance.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/01/...ergency-ahead-of-dangerous-january-storm.html

“States of emergencies do not ban people from the roads or require them to shelter in place. Instead, they allow the state to organize its emergency response and to become eligible for federal disaster aid.”
 
Well that's kind of on your son's office. They could've just closed early. Remember, a SOE typically is a way for the State to put resources in place in advance of expected emergencies and it does not mean people can’t drive or that events are cancelled. See the excerpt from the linked article. RU may still decide to postpone events like the game or close the U, but that would be almost unprecedented for a rain event that's not tropical storm related. Yes, flooding is likely to be bad (but much moreso early Weds than Tues evening unless the rain overperforms) but I see no reason to postpone this far in advance.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/01/...ergency-ahead-of-dangerous-january-storm.html

“States of emergencies do not ban people from the roads or require them to shelter in place. Instead, they allow the state to organize its emergency response and to become eligible for federal disaster aid.”
We did not close the office, but did a somewhat "soft close," letting people know that they could work from home, which they could do anyway. For us, living close to the coast, and me being on the fire department, we expect a busy day tomorrow, likely mostly babysitting downed wires and trees on wires until the utility company comes. The wind gusts will start picking up in the early after.
 
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