OT: Major winter storm 3/20-21?

[bac2therac]

I'm hyping sun and warm to return 2nd week of April.

not aocording to the Euro weeklies...unfortunately to the ire of most and the delight of few, it is going to be late spring arrival, hopefully by the end of April there wil be light at the end of the tunnel

Remember two years it was 80 degrees around the 12th of March and I think about 6 years ago we had prolonged 60s and 70s for about 3/4s of March

but lately it seems as if the seasons are beginning later..colder Marches and Aprils and warmer Septembers and Octobers

 

[bac2therac]

So the 12Z UK looks like a decent hit (could be mixing), while the 12Z Euro has snow lovers jumping off ledges, as it's much weaker (generally <1 foot of snow) and suppressed south of Baltimore. That's why one can't get too wound up or down, depending on your perspective, 4-5 days out. Even for the big snowstorms that do hit us, we almost always see things like this happen.

I don't have maps of either (can see them, but can't post them for reasons not worth going into). Will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles say with regard to whether the ensemble mean agrees with the op outcome (the GFS and CMC ensembles support the operational runs of those models).

the gfs ensembles didnt really support based on its output in the mean snowmap..correct me if Im wrong..see the map posted...seems like the members were all over the place with snow, rain and temperature

 

[_dave_]

I just got back in from blowing snow for the 2nd time today. This morning it was deeper than the bucket on top of my snowblower so I'd estimate 28-30" so far since last night and it's still dumping here in Tahoe.

 

[RU848789]

the gfs ensembles didnt really support based on its output in the mean snowmap..correct me if Im wrong..see the map posted...seems like the members were all over the place with snow, rain and temperature

The ensemble mean was a little NW of the op, but not much and some members will always be all over the place, as that's the whole point of doing the randomized perturbation of initial conditions - to see the sensitivity of the output to those changes. To me it looked like it supported the op, in general - and keep in mind that the ensemble mean will always have a lower precip max and general precip near the max than the op, since the ensemble includes a bunch of members that are nowhere near the mean and the precip from those essentially reduces the max precip (that's also why ensemble means have a lot less sharp gradients, since it's "smoothed" data from dozens of model runs and not just one op run).

 

[BuggsyRU]

oh he is a big boy, he can take it

doesn't mean you're not being a dick about it!

I just don't get it with some folks.

 

[chickenpatty2]

The ensemble mean was a little NW of the op, but not much and some members will always be all over the place, as that's the whole point of doing the randomized perturbation of initial conditions - to see the sensitivity of the output to those changes. To me it looked like it supported the op, in general - and keep in mind that the ensemble mean will always have a lower precip max and general precip near the max than the op, since the ensemble includes a bunch of members that are nowhere near the mean and the precip from those essentially reduces the max precip (that's also why ensemble means have a lot less sharp gradients, since it's "smoothed" data from dozens of model runs and not just one op run).

You had me at "randomized perturbation."

 

[bac2therac]

Euro ensembles....38 out of 51 are whiffs

 

[RU848789]

Euro ensembles....38 out of 51 are whiffs

Meaning 13 are not, which is one of the key points - it shows, with some minor perturbations of the initial conditions, that a hit is still possible. I'd be far more concerned if they were all whiffs. Doesn't mean the Euro is wrong, but it also gives less credence to it being a high confidence op run (and the Euro was way too far SE with the last system and simply hasn't been in top form lately). As I've been saying (and earthlight, dsnow, and others are saying), the potential for a big storm is there, but the details are far from ironed out yet, which is situation normal 4-5 days out.

 

[Knight Shift]

Meaning 13 are not, which is one of the key points - it shows, with some minor perturbations of the initial conditions, that a hit is still possible. I'd be far more concerned if they were all whiffs. Doesn't mean the Euro is wrong, but it also gives less credence to it being a high confidence op run (and the Euro was way too far SE with the last system and simply hasn't been in top form lately). As I've been saying (and earthlight, dsnow, and others are saying), the potential for a big storm is there, but the details are far from ironed out yet, which is situation normal 4-5 days out.

Here's #'s:

@bac2therac is arguing back, and here they are, with #'s saying he's not listening:

 

[bac2therac]

Meaning 13 are not, which is one of the key points - it shows, with some minor perturbations of the initial conditions, that a hit is still possible. I'd be far more concerned if they were all whiffs. Doesn't mean the Euro is wrong, but it also gives less credence to it being a high confidence op run (and the Euro was way too far SE with the last system and simply hasn't been in top form lately). As I've been saying (and earthlight, dsnow, and others are saying), the potential for a big storm is there, but the details are far from ironed out yet, which is situation normal 4-5 days out.

I know that if it went the opposite way with 38 of 51 showing hits, that you would not be talking about less credence to a high confidence run thats for sure.

all options are on the table still, I have never said they were not. Potential is there but everything has to come together and there is no model consistency yet so far in advance as basically we all knew there wouldnt be in the medium range. The 33andrain board is really really trying with this one I will say that.

 

[Fat-Tony]

So tired of this crap. Bac, we get it. You want to prove #s wrong. It’s old. Some of us come here for his analysis and, dare I say, optimism. Let it go.

 

[Myrtleknight]

So tired of this crap. Bac, we get it. You want to prove #s wrong. It’s old. Some of us come here for his analysis and, dare I say, optimism. Let it go.

+1. Back is a troll of epic proportions.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

+1. Back is a troll of epic proportions.

Cut him some slack. You'd be grumpy too if you were a 50 year old virgin.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

I think most of us appreciate #’s analysis because we want to prepare for the possibility of these storms. Preparing for no snow is pretty easy. Preparing for snow- work/school issues, gas for the generator, etc. (milk bread and eggs) is a pain in the ass.

 

[RU848789]

I know that if it went the opposite way with 38 of 51 showing hits, that you would not be talking about less credence to a high confidence run thats for sure.

all options are on the table still, I have never said they were not. Potential is there but everything has to come together and there is no model consistency yet so far in advance as basically we all knew there wouldnt be in the medium range. The 33andrain board is really really trying with this one I will say that.

I don't think you understand my point or what the ensembles are trying to tell us. Yesterday and last night the 4 main globals were all showing hits of varying degrees for our area, which was pretty unusual that far out and is why so many pros were saying there's a pretty high potential for a storm that will impact our area (but nowhere near a guarantee of it doing so, this far out).

And today, only the Euro shows a complete whiff, which certainly stands out. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but it gives one pause, wondering if it, alone, is "seeing" something the other models aren't seeing or if it might just be wrong for unknown reasons. That's when looking at the ensembles and seeing the somewhat expected spread in outcomes, including some hits, provides some evidence that the Euro op could well be wrong.

Just the fact that it's an outlier vs. the other models also increases the probability that it might be wrong, but probably the most important factor is that suppression should be less likely with an NAO moving from negative to positive as the storm approaches, which usually indicates lesser suppression, so synoptically, there are questions about the validity of the Euro solution (it's not just because it doesn't show snow). But, still, it may well be right and it has been alone and right before at this juncture (but it's also been alone and wrong).

We violently agree that a wide variety of track and intensity solutions between a rainstorm with an inland track, to a mixed bag to a major snowstorm to a glancing blow to a complete miss (but not all solutions - it's not going to go to Bermuda or Toronto) are still on the table, except for there not being a substantial storm at all, which now seems like a given.

But within that range, some outcomes are more likely than others and I would say the complete rainstorm (not shown by any model) and the complete whiff (only shown by the Euro) are low probabilities, while (for I-95) the snow to mostly rain, big thump of snow to some rain, the major all snow and the minor all snow (a glancing blow to our SE) are all stronger probabilities with one of them likely being the outcome, but we don't know which one yet. And for all 4 of those more likely scenarios the intensity is also an open question, as the intensity range is likely from 0.5 to 2.5" of total liquid precip (0.1" and 4" are not realistic at this time). Couple those track and intensity combos and there is still a pretty wide range of potential solutions.

Finally, I've never said there's high confidence in a major snowstorm more than maybe 2 days out - what I have said is that a major snowstorm might be more likely at 4-5 days than a rainstorm or a whiff and I would say that's true right now, also (that's what I said way back on 1/4 and I was right). But the snow to mostly rain, the thump of snow to some rain, and the light/moderate snow with a near miss are also reasonably likely, so I'd never say I have high confidence in a major snowstorm for us at this juncture.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Cut him some slack. You'd be grumpy too if you were a 50 year old virgin.

Sounds like a job for @mildone with his hookers and blow!

 

[TRU2RU]

Sounds like a job for @mildone with his hookers and blow!

Bac would need a fist full of $100's

 

[RUfubar]

If it does snow is it expected to be the light fluffy kind or the heavy wet crap we just got?

We violently agree that a wide variety of track and intensity solutions between a rainstorm with an inland track, to a mixed bag to a major .

how does one VIOLENTLY agree with another? :chairshot:

 

[RU848789]

not aocording to the Euro weeklies...unfortunately to the ire of most and the delight of few, it is going to be late spring arrival, hopefully by the end of April there wil be light at the end of the tunnel

Remember two years it was 80 degrees around the 12th of March and I think about 6 years ago we had prolonged 60s and 70s for about 3/4s of March

but lately it seems as if the seasons are beginning later..colder Marches and Aprils and warmer Septembers and Octobers

Once it can't snow any more, realistically (after about mid-April), I want warm and sunny (but never hot), as I love the change of seasons.

 

[bac2therac]

I also violently agree that we do violently agree on that all possibilities are on the table

 

[Tango Two]

NWS Mt Holly:

"Good morning! We want to give an update on the storm threat for the middle of next week (Monday night into Wednesday time frame).

The very latest forecast guidance takes the storm a little farther south and east which lowers the probability of significant impacts over the area compared to previous thinking. That said, we are still a few days away so there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. For this reason it is too soon to dismiss the threat of heavy rain, wet snow, and coastal flooding as the storm track could still shift northward again toward the region. Stay tuned!

For the latest forecast details specific to your location, please visit weather.gov/phi and enter your city or zip code in the upper left."

 

[RU848789]

I don't think you understand my point or what the ensembles are trying to tell us. Yesterday and last night the 4 main globals were all showing hits of varying degrees for our area, which was pretty unusual that far out and is why so many pros were saying there's a pretty high potential for a storm that will impact our area (but nowhere near a guarantee of it doing so, this far out).

And today, only the Euro shows a complete whiff, which certainly stands out. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but it gives one pause, wondering if it, alone, is "seeing" something the other models aren't seeing or if it might just be wrong for unknown reasons. That's when looking at the ensembles and seeing the somewhat expected spread in outcomes, including some hits, provides some evidence that the Euro op could well be wrong.

Just the fact that it's an outlier vs. the other models also increases the probability that it might be wrong, but probably the most important factor is that suppression should be less likely with an NAO moving from negative to positive as the storm approaches, which usually indicates lesser suppression, so synoptically, there are questions about the validity of the Euro solution (it's not just because it doesn't show snow). But, still, it may well be right and it has been alone and right before at this juncture (but it's also been alone and wrong).

We violently agree that a wide variety of track and intensity solutions between a rainstorm with an inland track, to a mixed bag to a major snowstorm to a glancing blow to a complete miss (but not all solutions - it's not going to go to Bermuda or Toronto) are still on the table, except for there not being a substantial storm at all, which now seems like a given.

But within that range, some outcomes are more likely than others and I would say the complete rainstorm (not shown by any model) and the complete whiff (only shown by the Euro) are low probabilities, while (for I-95) the snow to mostly rain, big thump of snow to some rain, the major all snow and the minor all snow (a glancing blow to our SE) are all stronger probabilities with one of them likely being the outcome, but we don't know which one yet. And for all 4 of those more likely scenarios the intensity is also an open question, as the intensity range is likely from 0.5 to 2.5" of total liquid precip (0.1" and 4" are not realistic at this time). Couple those track and intensity combos and there is still a pretty wide range of potential solutions.

Finally, I've never said there's high confidence in a major snowstorm more than maybe 2 days out - what I have said is that a major snowstorm might be more likely at 4-5 days than a rainstorm or a whiff and I would say that's true right now, also (that's what I said way back on 1/4 and I was right). But the snow to mostly rain, the thump of snow to some rain, and the light/moderate snow with a near miss are also reasonably likely, so I'd never say I have high confidence in a major snowstorm for us at this juncture.

So the 00Z models last night were not encouraging for snow lovers, as most moved south at least somewhat and the storm(s) look weaker than they did yesterday, so less precip/snow. The Euro was still a whiff for everyone north of Baltimore (but did move about 50 miles north of 12Z), the CMC was much weaker and a whiff north of about 276/195 (3-6" south of there), the GFS was a moderate hit from 78 to 195 and a significant hit south of 195, and the UK apparently didn't run. The GFS and CMC ensembles were somewhat north of their operational runs showing a more significant hit for CNJ/NNJ, which indicates the op runs might be too far south. The Euro ensembles were a bit north of the op, but certainly not anywhere near our area, as the Euro is still well south of any other model.

But we're now in range for the NAM, which has possibly been the best model this winter, surprisingly, and the 6Z NAM this morning shows a major hit for the whole Philly-NYC region, while the 6Z GFS shows a weak, disorganized series of storms that are a whiff north of 195 with only minor snows from 195 to Philly and only 2-3" from Philly to Toms River and 3-6" for points south of there. These are the only models that run at 6Z.

Given all of that, clearly the likelihood of a major snowstorm has been reduced somewhat to substantially for our area, but it's still on the table, given the uncertainties of the models this far out (still 3-4 days out as of 00Z) and the range of possibilities being shown by the models and the outcome for the 6Z NAM. At this point, though, as per the NWS, a minor to moderate hit is looking more likely and TWC has a complete miss north of Philly to Toms River. Belows is this morning's NWS discussion of the model trends, but highlighting the uncertainty. I'd say if we don't see a consensus move back to a significant snowstorm by Sunday morning, 48 hours from the start of the event, it'll be unlikely we'll see such a significant move after that.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
619 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The focus in the long-term period continues to be on the midweek
storm. A positive note is there has been a clear trend in the
guidance over the past couple of cycles, including last night`s 00Z
run, toward a more progressive solution that would favor a
suppressed storm track for the first wave of low pressure Monday
night-Tuesday and even more notably for the second wave Wednesday-
Wednesday night. If these trends were to hold up, the extent,
duration and severity of impacts would be much lower than what
models were indicating 1-2 days ago. Given this storm is still 3-5
days out and the predictability skill for such a complex setup (with
a parade of disturbances in play along with the potential for
phasing to occur) is limited, it`s a bit premature to rule out a
shift back in the other direction that would put us back in play for
a long duration, higher-impact event from late Monday night
through Wednesday night. The bottom line is the poor run-to-
run continuity and lingering spread among the operational models
and the individual ensemble forecast systems hinders our
ability to provide specific details with high certainty, on
things such as rain and snow accumulations, where the rain/snow
line sets up and how it evolves over time, and the magnitude of
winds/beach erosion/coastal flooding.

Keeping the abovementioned caveats in mind, a huge motivating factor
for cautiously maintaining our message for a potentially high-impact
event is the vulnerability of our infrastructure following the
recent Nor`easters this month: Trees have been weakened/damaged,
restoration efforts are still ongoing, and soils in E PA and NJ are
still very saturated. This all makes our region more susceptible
than usual to another round of power outages and flooding IF a
worst-case scenario would come to fruition...so we don`t want
to let our guard down too soon.

Concerning the rain vs. snow aspect of this storm... The track of
the primary surface low will likely be south of our region (along
the VA-NC border) while a secondary coastal low develops near
Norfolk and tracks northeastward over or nearby the Gulf stream.
Synoptically, this would be a favorable pattern for snow across the
region. However, thermal profiles look to be marginally supportive
of accumulating snow (more likely a rain-snow-sleet mix) at least
initially, especially in the I-95 corridor and coastal plain, given
the lack of cold air from a storm system of Pac NW origin and the
influences of a high sun angle in late March. A transition to wet
snow would be possible at some point as (1) Canadian high pressure
building eastward allows cold air to drain southward into the region
and (2) the coastal low deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast while the
upper low reaches our longitude. The latter would favor strong
dynamical cooling although it is highly conditional on deep ascent
and heavier precip rates setting up over our region- which is
becoming increasingly doubtful given the latest trends.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RocktheRac]

Storm fail.

 

[Scarlet dollar]

Storm fail.

C'mon, don't jinx it!

 

[zappaa]

Thanks numbers

 

[RUPete]

I’m not sleeping on this yet. Don’t want to see a forecast turnaround like the Boxing Day storm.

 

[RU848789]

Well, earthlight (John Homenuk who runs NY Metro Weather and is one of the leaders of 33andrain) hasn't declared the threat over, yet, but I'd say he has the Fat Lady warming up off stage. Here's an excerpt of what he just said...

All of this leads to the conclusion that at this time, we are not forecasting a winter storm of significance in NYC next week – and we feel the chances of something significant go up as one reaches Philadelphia and then incrementally increase as you draw closer to Washington, DC and Baltimore. Synoptically, we will continue to advertise the potential for something larger to occur – based on the overall evolution and historical analog packets. However, this particular evolution (and support from larger ensemble package trends) suggests a lower percentage chance of significant winter weather in the Northeast states than normal in this base synoptic pattern.

This is further backed by the GEFS trending downward in accumulated precipitation totals and the ECMWF remaining steady (5 of 51 members showing significant impacts in the Northeast states, actually down from yesterday). Again, with that said, we will continue to advertise the period ahead as one of potential, where winter weather impacts of significance are certainly higher than normal based on the synoptics evolving. But in this particular scenario we are currently leaning towards little impacts in the Northeast, with the potential for something more significant in the Mid-Atlantic states (including areas like Washington, D.C and Baltimore).

 

[knightfan7]

I don't mind that the different camps go back (or Bac) and forth. It's no different than any other topic on these boards. I simply appreciate all info.

 

[IL Lusciato]

Cut him some slack. You'd be grumpy too if you were a 50 year old virgin.

Hahahahah

 

[RU848789]

I’m not sleeping on this yet. Don’t want to see a forecast turnaround like the Boxing Day storm.

Me either - too much potential, still, and too far out to assume the southern solutions are 100% correct. And as we speak the 12Z NAM just came in and is a major snowstorm south of 80 (including NYC) to DC. It ain't over yet, but this could just be the NAM being overexuberant...

 

[RUPete]

Me either - too much potential, still, and too far out to assume the southern solutions are 100% correct. And as we speak the 12Z NAM just came in and is a major snowstorm south of 80 (including NYC) to DC. It ain't over yet, but this could just be the NAM being overexuberant...

Maybe, but the NAM has performed this year and it’s getting within its range. We may wind up splitting the difference here and have a moderate event.

 

[RU848789]

So the 00Z models last night were not encouraging for snow lovers, as most moved south at least somewhat and the storm(s) look weaker than they did yesterday, so less precip/snow. The Euro was still a whiff for everyone north of Baltimore (but did move about 50 miles north of 12Z), the CMC was much weaker and a whiff north of about 276/195 (3-6" south of there), the GFS was a moderate hit from 78 to 195 and a significant hit south of 195, and the UK apparently didn't run. The GFS and CMC ensembles were somewhat north of their operational runs showing a more significant hit for CNJ/NNJ, which indicates the op runs might be too far south. The Euro ensembles were a bit north of the op, but certainly not anywhere near our area, as the Euro is still well south of any other model.

But we're now in range for the NAM, which has possibly been the best model this winter, surprisingly, and the 6Z NAM this morning shows a major hit for the whole Philly-NYC region, while the 6Z GFS shows a weak, disorganized series of storms that are a whiff north of 195 with only minor snows from 195 to Philly and only 2-3" from Philly to Toms River and 3-6" for points south of there. These are the only models that run at 6Z.

Given all of that, clearly the likelihood of a major snowstorm has been reduced somewhat to substantially for our area, but it's still on the table, given the uncertainties of the models this far out (still 3-4 days out as of 00Z) and the range of possibilities being shown by the models and the outcome for the 6Z NAM. At this point, though, as per the NWS, a minor to moderate hit is looking more likely and TWC has a complete miss north of Philly to Toms River. Belows is this morning's NWS discussion of the model trends, but highlighting the uncertainty. I'd say if we don't see a consensus move back to a significant snowstorm by Sunday morning, 48 hours from the start of the event, it'll be unlikely we'll see such a significant move after that.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
619 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The focus in the long-term period continues to be on the midweek
storm. A positive note is there has been a clear trend in the
guidance over the past couple of cycles, including last night`s 00Z
run, toward a more progressive solution that would favor a
suppressed storm track for the first wave of low pressure Monday
night-Tuesday and even more notably for the second wave Wednesday-
Wednesday night. If these trends were to hold up, the extent,
duration and severity of impacts would be much lower than what
models were indicating 1-2 days ago. Given this storm is still 3-5
days out and the predictability skill for such a complex setup (with
a parade of disturbances in play along with the potential for
phasing to occur) is limited, it`s a bit premature to rule out a
shift back in the other direction that would put us back in play for
a long duration, higher-impact event from late Monday night
through Wednesday night. The bottom line is the poor run-to-
run continuity and lingering spread among the operational models
and the individual ensemble forecast systems hinders our
ability to provide specific details with high certainty, on
things such as rain and snow accumulations, where the rain/snow
line sets up and how it evolves over time, and the magnitude of
winds/beach erosion/coastal flooding.

Keeping the abovementioned caveats in mind, a huge motivating factor
for cautiously maintaining our message for a potentially high-impact
event is the vulnerability of our infrastructure following the
recent Nor`easters this month: Trees have been weakened/damaged,
restoration efforts are still ongoing, and soils in E PA and NJ are
still very saturated. This all makes our region more susceptible
than usual to another round of power outages and flooding IF a
worst-case scenario would come to fruition...so we don`t want
to let our guard down too soon.

Concerning the rain vs. snow aspect of this storm... The track of
the primary surface low will likely be south of our region (along
the VA-NC border) while a secondary coastal low develops near
Norfolk and tracks northeastward over or nearby the Gulf stream.
Synoptically, this would be a favorable pattern for snow across the
region. However, thermal profiles look to be marginally supportive
of accumulating snow (more likely a rain-snow-sleet mix) at least
initially, especially in the I-95 corridor and coastal plain, given
the lack of cold air from a storm system of Pac NW origin and the
influences of a high sun angle in late March. A transition to wet
snow would be possible at some point as (1) Canadian high pressure
building eastward allows cold air to drain southward into the region
and (2) the coastal low deepens off the Mid-Atlantic coast while the
upper low reaches our longitude. The latter would favor strong
dynamical cooling although it is highly conditional on deep ascent
and heavier precip rates setting up over our region- which is
becoming increasingly doubtful given the latest trends.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Since we're getting closer to the event and since the interest is there, I'll post the 12Z model runs as they come out. Will be interesting to see if the southern trend is confirmed or not or if the 6Z NAM was on to something. First up is the 12Z NAM, which moved about 40-50 miles south of 6Z, but still shows a major snowstorm for everyone south of I-80 (including NYC) all the way down to DC, but has a very sharp cutoff in precip north of 80 with nothing from 84 north. It's also worth noting that the entire area, except near the immediate coast, is below 32F (and mostly in the upper 20s) for the entire storm from the wee hours on Tuesday through Tuesday evening, when the storm winds down. As modeled, that would mean much less melting than we've seen in recent storms, as well as good ratios.

12:15 pm edit. Game is not over yet folks - maybe the NAM is on to something. The 12Z GFS came a bit north with the track,but didn't really move much north with the snow, which happens sometimes (precip shield extent NW of the center is pretty comples to model correctly). It only has measurable snow up to about 195, but significant snow not far south of there. However, the 12Z CMC made a pretty major shift north (50-75 miles) with both, bringing moderate snow to 78 and NYC down to Trenton and major snows south of 195.

And the RDPS, the Canadian mesoscale model similar to the US's NAM, also showing a pretty good hit for the Philly-NYC region. It's mm of snow on this map so the green 10-15 mm is the same as 4-6" for people who like getting it in inches (not that there's anything wrong with that). And for the winter weather weenies, we wait for the 12Z Euro - even though the King has lost some of its luster, it still has the best overall verification scores. Will it continue being Dr. No? We'll see in about 90 minutes.

2:30 pm edit: So the 2Z Euro came north about 75 miles and is now a near miss for north of 195 instead of a whiff down to Baltimore - the 6" line was from DC to just south of Cape May and now it's from just south of Wilmington to just south of Toms River. And finally, here's the 12Z UK which has two lows through Thursday and is a modest hit for CNJ/NNJ (more south) - I think this is all snow for most of NJ but not 100% sure.

 

[m1ipabrams]

Since we're getting closer to the event and since the interest is there, I'll post the 12Z model runs as they come out. Will be interesting to see if the southern trend is confirmed or not or if the 6Z NAM was on to something. First up is the 12Z NAM, which moved about 40-50 miles south of 6Z, but still shows a major snowstorm for everyone south of I-80 (including NYC) all the way down to DC, but has a very sharp cutoff in precip north of 80 with nothing from 84 north. It's also worth noting that the entire area, except near the immediate coast, is below 32F (and mostly in the upper 20s) for the entire storm from the wee hours on Tuesday through Tuesday evening, when the storm winds down. As modeled, that would mean much less melting than we've seen in recent storms, as well as good ratios.

Looks like Chester County PA is in the bullseye for this run.

 

[RocktheRac]

Question. Why did you post maps only after they showed snow?

 

[bac2therac]

Question. Why did you post maps only after they showed snow?

:popcorn:

 

[m1ipabrams]

Question. Why did you post maps only after they showed snow?

cause maps with no snow are pretty boring?

 

[RocktheRac]

Well the milf's at the Hillsborough Deli are not concerned about this event when I picked up my green bagels this morning. Lotta talk about kissing Barney's stones. Errr... I mean blarney stones.

 

[bac2therac]

cause maps with no snow are pretty boring?

not if you are trying to give the full picture and possibilities it isnt, remember yesterday I posted those Euro ensembles and immediately got lectured downplaying them instead of just accepting them as one viable solution in an ever changing suites of model runs so far in advance.

 

[RU848789]

Question. Why did you post maps only after they showed snow?

I didn't - I'm posting the whole suite, snow or no snow. If the Euro shows no snow it'll be posted. I rarely show models more than 3 days in advance, as I think they're largely useless, but we're now only about 60-66 hours from the start of the precip, so I figured now's the time where showing models can be useful. I only showed the 2 models yesterday to show the potential and even put in all caps that it wasn't a forecast.

I also posted earthlight's possibly premature downgrading of the storm from this morning, as I thought that was noteworthy as he's been one of the most bullish pros on this pattern/event. He's clearly backtracking on that now and I'm sure he wished he hadn't made that post to the board and his blog, but it happens. So, instead of it looking fairly unlikely for snow as was the case after the 00Z models, I'd now say it's 50-50 for at least moderate snow (at least 2-4") for CNJ and less than that for NNJ - and major snows (8" or more) are back on the table. Stay tuned.

 

[bac2therac]

I didn't - I'm posting the whole suite, snow or no snow. If the Euro shows no snow it'll be posted. I rarely show models more than 3 days in advance, as I think they're largely useless, but we're now only about 60-66 hours from the start of the precip, so I figured now's the time where showing models can be useful. I only showed the 2 models yesterday to show the potential and even put in all caps that it wasn't a forecast.

I also posted earthlight's possibly premature downgrading of the storm from this morning, as I thought that was noteworthy as he's been one of the most bullish pros on this pattern/event. He's clearly backtracking on that now and I'm sure he wished he hadn't made that post to the board and his blog, but it happens. So, instead of it looking fairly unlikely for snow as was the case after the 00Z models, I'd now say it's 50-50 for at least moderate snow (at least 2-4") for CNJ and less than that for NNJ - and major snows (8" or more) are back on the table. Stay tuned.

just for the record, you showed maps yesterday afternoon but then didnt post the nighttime ones that cut them back or the euro from yesterday..this is the same snarky stuff you call me out on so just being consistent here

anyhow I do not think there are any absolutes...whats odd is that all the weenies on the 33andrain board seem to model hug each run, they should know better