OT: Major winter storm 3/20-21?
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Been away all day (31st dating anniversary - for some reason, we've always celebrated that more than the wedding anniversary), but getting back now to see what I missed.
Well, we're now 5-6 days out, depending on when the storm(s) come, as there are some indications of multiple low pressure systems vs one main storm - models having a hard time resolving all the pieces of energy. Having said that, all of the global models are still showing a major winter storm from Tuesday through Wednesday and maybe into Thursday if we see a two-storm solution (as has happened at times in the past - 12/5/2003). As expected this far out the outcomes vary considerably, but clearly the potential is pretty big.
The 18Z GFS has this 2-low solution with the outcome being modest snowfall for NNJ/CNJ, but a pretty major snowstorm from DC to Philly/SNJ, while the Euro has a single storm that annihilates MD/VA/DC/Balt and is a significant storm for Philly/SNJ, but only minor to moderate for NNJ/CNJ, due to suppression of the storm track. The Canadian is a major, but not huge, hit for almost all of NJ, except less N of 80, while the UK shows a snow to rain scenario for most, except for far NW areas (but still a major storm). However, the GFS and Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on a snowstorm for our area and often, at this range, the ensembles (Monte Carlo style simulations of the model featuring randomly perturbed initial conditions to assess model sensitivity and ranges of outcomes) are more insightful than the operational run of the model most people look at.
So, like I said earlier today, a major winter storm is looking fairly likely, but the possibilities range from a raging rainstorm for all but far inland areas, a snow to rain event for most (if the track is too far NW and the coastal low doesn't take over until too late), a major snowstorm for most, a suppressed storm that gives minor to moderate snows N of 195 but more to the south of 195, and a complete whiff to the south. Most pros believe the rainstorm and whiff are very low probabilities and that figuring out what will exactly happen will take a few more days.
With the blocking in place near Greenland along with a "50N/50W low" likely in place, there is the potential for a slow moving storm which could mean very high precip amounts. However, keep in mind that for our area, snowstorms are fragile things that need many things to work out in just the right order, meaning it only takes one element going wrong to prevent the 95 corridor/coast from getting major snows (like we saw in 2 of the 3 nor'easters recently) - and this is even more true in mid-March, with less cold air around (but should be more with this one than the last 3) and the warm March sun if precip falls during the day. So, bottom line is there is major snowstorm potential, with a very high ceiling for the Philly-NYC area (and the whole NE really), but many things could prevent that potential from being realized.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/841-winter-2017-2018-the-encore/?page=44
Well, we're now 5-6 days out, depending on when the storm(s) come, as there are some indications of multiple low pressure systems vs one main storm - models having a hard time resolving all the pieces of energy. Having said that, all of the global models are still showing a major winter storm from Tuesday through Wednesday and maybe into Thursday if we see a two-storm solution (as has happened at times in the past - 12/5/2003). As expected this far out the outcomes vary considerably, but clearly the potential is pretty big.
The 18Z GFS has this 2-low solution with the outcome being modest snowfall for NNJ/CNJ, but a pretty major snowstorm from DC to Philly/SNJ, while the Euro has a single storm that annihilates MD/VA/DC/Balt and is a significant storm for Philly/SNJ, but only minor to moderate for NNJ/CNJ, due to suppression of the storm track. The Canadian is a major, but not huge, hit for almost all of NJ, except less N of 80, while the UK shows a snow to rain scenario for most, except for far NW areas (but still a major storm). However, the GFS and Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on a snowstorm for our area and often, at this range, the ensembles (Monte Carlo style simulations of the model featuring randomly perturbed initial conditions to assess model sensitivity and ranges of outcomes) are more insightful than the operational run of the model most people look at.
So, like I said earlier today, a major winter storm is looking fairly likely, but the possibilities range from a raging rainstorm for all but far inland areas, a snow to rain event for most (if the track is too far NW and the coastal low doesn't take over until too late), a major snowstorm for most, a suppressed storm that gives minor to moderate snows N of 195 but more to the south of 195, and a complete whiff to the south. Most pros believe the rainstorm and whiff are very low probabilities and that figuring out what will exactly happen will take a few more days.
With the blocking in place near Greenland along with a "50N/50W low" likely in place, there is the potential for a slow moving storm which could mean very high precip amounts. However, keep in mind that for our area, snowstorms are fragile things that need many things to work out in just the right order, meaning it only takes one element going wrong to prevent the 95 corridor/coast from getting major snows (like we saw in 2 of the 3 nor'easters recently) - and this is even more true in mid-March, with less cold air around (but should be more with this one than the last 3) and the warm March sun if precip falls during the day. So, bottom line is there is major snowstorm potential, with a very high ceiling for the Philly-NYC area (and the whole NE really), but many things could prevent that potential from being realized.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/841-winter-2017-2018-the-encore/?page=44
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Yes, if it's within a week or so, but I often go back weeks to months later and the avatar won't help with that.
Like I said, the ceiling is pretty high. The 00Z GFS and CMC just came out and crush much of our area with 8-14" of snow, while the Euro has 6-10" for most. Again, shows the potential, not what's really going to happen.
Edit: this morning's 6Z GFS continues to show 8-14" for most of the area.
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Lee's usually very good - at 11 pm he kind of said the same thing, which really surprised me. He will likely reconsider that after seeing the 00Z models that came out after his newscast - interesting with daylight saving, models are now all coming out after the 11 pm newscasts - we rarely have potential major snowstorms after DST in most years.
Lee talked about a longer duration event rather than a raging noreaster. With alot of that falling in the daylight hours that could really could limit the impacts if you do not get the same rates like the last system...We will be 2 weeks further along with the sun angle. we still have 6 days to work on it with the models
A nice write-up by the NWS in NYC this morning highlighting the potential of the storm, but also the things that can go "wrong" with any forecast for a major snowstorm, in general, but especially in late March. Will keep watching this one...
National Weather Service New York NY
510 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Potential storm is looking likely toward the end of the forecast
period, although exact forecast details remain in question.
However, global models in remarkable agreement on potent low moving
out of the mid west toward the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday.
Multiple low pressure centers, or one deepening low, slowly move
across the western Atlantic, passing just south of the region
Wednesday and Thursday.
This will set the stage for increasing NE/E winds, and significant
precipitation, especially from Tuesday night through Thursday.
As for precipitation type this far out, a rain/snow mix near the
coast during the daytime is possible, but cannot rule out
predominately snow either.
Again, details this far out are always a challenge with much
dependency on eventual low placement. Accumulating snow more likely
during the overnight hours with high pressure located to the north
providing ample cold air. Working against an all snow forecast
during the daytime hours would be the sun angle this time of the
year and potential extended periods of E to ENE winds. Precip
intensity will be important as well.
Other potential impacts are coastal flooding and strong winds.
Someone's been hyping 6/7 days out. Someone calling out the potential for a snowstorm that long out is hyping.
You can't be serious. Highlighting potential and what can also go wrong with a snow forecast seems pretty balanced to me. If I wanted to hype this event it would be so easy, as the snowfall maps from the various model runs are pretty damn impressive, but I haven't been posting them have I?
###s as you yourself pointed out, it's a message board & everybody is entitled to their opinion. That said, you're completely right, you've been extremely fair & balanced when it comes to talking (not hyping) about the weather potential for next week. Some people will never be happy, no matter what you do.
Appreciate the work you do.
Appreciate the work you do.
I appreciate the info numbers, I’m in Vail and returning Thursday so keeping up with potential delays is important to me.
We have streets in Montclair that are still one lane and many people are still attending to their property damage.
Spring sport schedules are a mess.
This three day slow mover forecasted to come our way is a nightmare.
Spring sport schedules are a mess.
This three day slow mover forecasted to come our way is a nightmare.
I still have a 10 inch snow pack across my yard and half of my shrubs are laying sideways. Feb was all rain and now March is all snow. Just impossible to dry anything out with all the precip. I have had enough and just want Spring to begin.
don't you know its more important for weenies to get one more huge dump of white paste so they can get their jollies.
Interesting discussion from the WPC, after having seen all of last night's 00Z models. They made the same comment I made above about the importance of the ensemble signal in indicating the potential for this storm.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 VALID 12Z MON MAR 19 2018 - 12Z FRI MAR 23 2018
...LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK... ...SPRAWLING SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK... ...OVERVIEW... EAST... WINTER WILL NOT GO OUT QUIETLY IN THE EAST AS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION BRINGS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO REDEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUE-FRI. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH HOW (AND WHERE) THE MANY PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST INTERACT BUT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS QUITE LOUD FOR AT LEAST AN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC (AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS) INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 VALID 12Z MON MAR 19 2018 - 12Z FRI MAR 23 2018
...LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK... ...SPRAWLING SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK... ...OVERVIEW... EAST... WINTER WILL NOT GO OUT QUIETLY IN THE EAST AS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION BRINGS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO REDEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUE-FRI. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH HOW (AND WHERE) THE MANY PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST INTERACT BUT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS QUITE LOUD FOR AT LEAST AN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC (AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS) INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.
If you don't like snow, don't look at the 12Z GFS which just came out, which shows a somewhat unlikely 2-part storm with part 1 hammering north of 195/276 on Tues/Weds (map #1) with major snows and part 2 hitting the entire area with significant snow (map #2 showing the total snowfall from both).
JUST SHOWING THE POTENTIAL HERE - THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!! Since some seem to think the potential of this storm is limited - I'm sure Lee Goldberg is backtracking quickly on those statements from yesterday. This may still all be a miss or mostly rain, but to say it doesn't have potential is silly.
Edit: adding in the CMC hot off the presses. Both models show incredibly snowy potentials, but quite different solutions, which is why one can't get too caught up in individual model output, but should instead focus on the overall potential and the range of outcomes.
JUST SHOWING THE POTENTIAL HERE - THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!! Since some seem to think the potential of this storm is limited - I'm sure Lee Goldberg is backtracking quickly on those statements from yesterday. This may still all be a miss or mostly rain, but to say it doesn't have potential is silly.
Edit: adding in the CMC hot off the presses. Both models show incredibly snowy potentials, but quite different solutions, which is why one can't get too caught up in individual model output, but should instead focus on the overall potential and the range of outcomes.
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The Hillsboro Deli milfs had a hop in their step this morning talking about next week.
That perky blonde said she wasn't plowed last week but is expecting to be on Tuesday by the landscaper
That perky blonde said she wasn't plowed last week but is expecting to be on Tuesday by the landscaper
Great question and I can only offer up a best guess. I'd expect to see a lot of waffling back and forth on model solutions until we get to about Sunday night and then I'd expect to have a pretty good handle on one storm vs. two, big snow vs. moderate snow, and a track that brings snow to rain vs. all snow vs. light snow for the Philly-NYC corridor by then.
But even at that point, if the forecast is very "fragile," small changes, such as a 25 mile change in track or a 1-2F difference in surface temps, could mean large outcome changes still, as we saw in all 3 of the previous storms. It's only when there isn't that kind of sensitivity (like for the 1/4 storm, where precip type was not in question only moderate vs. major snow was in question) that a forecast can be made with higher confidence.
A lot would depend on the track - the two models shown would have enough cold air in place for I-95 and northward to likely make the snow there kind of "average" with regard to snow to liquid ratio (10:1 is average), whereas the 3/7 event, in particular, had a low snow to liquid ratio (i.e., 5-7:1 or very wet), partly because of above freezing column temps near the surface, leading to partial melting of the snow before hitting the ground. The closer the snow rain line is to someone, though, the wetter the snow usually is.
oh boo hoo i thought you do not mind anything being posted and I was not even talking to you
Weak - when you make a comment like that without specifying who it's to, the obvious assumption is me, since I like snow, which you've excoriated me for on many occasions. At least own up to it.
And what I've said is I would never ban anyone, and I have no issues with multiple threads on weather or people just making friendly banter. However, I've never said I like when people derail threads or make very biased posts - I'd prefer they not do that, but there's not much I can do about it.
If you don't like snow, don't look at the 12Z GFS which just came out, which shows a somewhat unlikely 2-part storm with part 1 hammering north of 195/276 on Tues/Weds (map #1) with major snows and part 2 hitting the entire area with significant snow (map #2 showing the total snowfall from both).
JUST SHOWING THE POTENTIAL HERE - THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!! Since some seem to think the potential of this storm is limited - I'm sure Lee Goldberg is backtracking quickly on those statements from yesterday. This may still all be a miss or mostly rain, but to say it doesn't have potential is silly.
Edit: adding in the CMC hot off the presses. Both models show incredibly snowy potentials, but quite different solutions, which is why one can't get too caught up in individual model output, but should instead focus on the overall potential and the range of outcomes.
So the 12Z UK looks like a decent hit (could be mixing), while the 12Z Euro has snow lovers jumping off ledges, as it's much weaker (generally <1 foot of snow) and suppressed south of Baltimore. That's why one can't get too wound up or down, depending on your perspective, 4-5 days out. Even for the big snowstorms that do hit us, we almost always see things like this happen.
I don't have maps of either (can see them, but can't post them for reasons not worth going into). Will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles say with regard to whether the ensemble mean agrees with the op outcome (the GFS and CMC ensembles support the operational runs of those models).
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