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Yup... No ones fault but my own for walking right into that one head first lol.No dump ‘em for Devils tickets.
Storm was the buzz talk at shop rite at noon today.
Yes, if it's within a week or so, but I often go back weeks to months later and the avatar won't help with that.Would be easier to find them if you had a recognizable avatar
So, bottom line is there is major snowstorm potential, with a very high ceiling for the Philly-NYC area (and the whole NE really), but many things could prevent that potential from being realized.
Lee's usually very good - at 11 pm he kind of said the same thing, which really surprised me. He will likely reconsider that after seeing the 00Z models that came out after his newscast - interesting with daylight saving, models are now all coming out after the 11 pm newscasts - we rarely have potential major snowstorms after DST in most years.Lee Goldberg just totally downplayed this so called event
Been away all day (31st dating anniversary - for some reason, we've always celebrated that more than the wedding anniversary), but getting back now to see what I missed.
Well, we're now 5-6 days out, depending on when the storm(s) come, as there are some indications of multiple low pressure systems vs one main storm - models having a hard time resolving all the pieces of energy. Having said that, all of the global models are still showing a major winter storm from Tuesday through Wednesday and maybe into Thursday if we see a two-storm solution (as has happened at times in the past - 12/5/2003). As expected this far out the outcomes vary considerably, but clearly the potential is pretty big.
The 18Z GFS has this 2-low solution with the outcome being modest snowfall for NNJ/CNJ, but a pretty major snowstorm from DC to Philly/SNJ, while the Euro has a single storm that annihilates MD/VA/DC/Balt and is a significant storm for Philly/SNJ, but only minor to moderate for NNJ/CNJ, due to suppression of the storm track. The Canadian is a major, but not huge, hit for almost all of NJ, except less N of 80, while the UK shows a snow to rain scenario for most, except for far NW areas (but still a major storm). However, the GFS and Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on a snowstorm for our area and often, at this range, the ensembles (Monte Carlo style simulations of the model featuring randomly perturbed initial conditions to assess model sensitivity and ranges of outcomes) are more insightful than the operational run of the model most people look at.
So, like I said earlier today, a major winter storm is looking fairly likely, but the possibilities range from a raging rainstorm for all but far inland areas, a snow to rain event for most (if the track is too far NW and the coastal low doesn't take over until too late), a major snowstorm for most, a suppressed storm that gives minor to moderate snows N of 195 but more to the south of 195, and a complete whiff to the south. Most pros believe the rainstorm and whiff are very low probabilities and that figuring out what will exactly happen will take a few more days.
With the blocking in place near Greenland along with a "50N/50W low" likely in place, there is the potential for a slow moving storm which could mean very high precip amounts. However, keep in mind that for our area, snowstorms are fragile things that need many things to work out in just the right order, meaning it only takes one element going wrong to prevent the 95 corridor/coast from getting major snows (like we saw in 2 of the 3 nor'easters recently) - and this is even more true in mid-March, with less cold air around (but should be more with this one than the last 3) and the warm March sun if precip falls during the day. So, bottom line is there is major snowstorm potential, with a very high ceiling for the Philly-NYC area (and the whole NE really), but many things could prevent that potential from being realized.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/841-winter-2017-2018-the-encore/?page=44
Like I said, the ceiling is pretty high. The 00Z GFS and CMC just came out and crush much of our area with 8-14" of snow, while the Euro has 6-10" for most. Again, shows the potential, not what's really going to happen.
Edit: this morning's 6Z GFS continues to show 8-14" for most of the area.
You can't be serious. Highlighting potential and what can also go wrong with a snow forecast seems pretty balanced to me. If I wanted to hype this event it would be so easy, as the snowfall maps from the various model runs are pretty damn impressive, but I haven't been posting them have I?Someone's been hyping 6/7 days out. Someone calling out the potential for a snowstorm that long out is hyping.
We have streets in Montclair that are still one lane and many people are still attending to their property damage.
Spring sport schedules are a mess.
This three day slow mover forecasted to come our way is a nightmare.
thanks for your ongoing efforts to derail the thread...don't you know its more important for weenies to get one more huge dump of white paste so they can get their jollies.
When do you expect the models to start converging? That'd be useful information for those who would be affected by this storm outside of the normal home, work, commute, school stuff.
A lot would depend on the track - the two models shown would have enough cold air in place for I-95 and northward to likely make the snow there kind of "average" with regard to snow to liquid ratio (10:1 is average), whereas the 3/7 event, in particular, had a low snow to liquid ratio (i.e., 5-7:1 or very wet), partly because of above freezing column temps near the surface, leading to partial melting of the snow before hitting the ground. The closer the snow rain line is to someone, though, the wetter the snow usually is.If it does snow is it expected to be the light fluffy kind or the heavy wet crap we just got?
thanks for your ongoing efforts to derail the thread...
Weak - when you make a comment like that without specifying who it's to, the obvious assumption is me, since I like snow, which you've excoriated me for on many occasions. At least own up to it.oh boo hoo i thought you do not mind anything being posted and I was not even talking to you
If you don't like snow, don't look at the 12Z GFS which just came out, which shows a somewhat unlikely 2-part storm with part 1 hammering north of 195/276 on Tues/Weds (map #1) with major snows and part 2 hitting the entire area with significant snow (map #2 showing the total snowfall from both).
JUST SHOWING THE POTENTIAL HERE - THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!! Since some seem to think the potential of this storm is limited - I'm sure Lee Goldberg is backtracking quickly on those statements from yesterday. This may still all be a miss or mostly rain, but to say it doesn't have potential is silly.
Edit: adding in the CMC hot off the presses. Both models show incredibly snowy potentials, but quite different solutions, which is why one can't get too caught up in individual model output, but should instead focus on the overall potential and the range of outcomes.
That's almost a month from now- you're not making me feel much better.I'm hyping sun and warm to return 2nd week of April.