OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)

[WhiteBus]

I can watch that movie again and again and again.......

 

[Plum Street]

I always debate is it worth clearing snow during the storm or just wait until
It’s over

 

[RU848789]

Note: the maps below and what many have been talking about are additional snow from 7 am today through the end of the event. Yes, this is a bit lower for areas SW of Trenton, but that wasn't totally unexpected.

So, we didn't get that much overnight while I snoozed. Went from 7.0" at 2 am to 8.5" at 7 am. From what the NWS discussion said, sounds like there was a lull, which was underway when I went to sleep around 2:30 am, plus some sleet/freezing rain fell with the lighter precip. Snowing moderately right now at 28F.

Let's see if we get the 13=14" additional inches my point-and-click forecast says for Metuchen (see graphic below) which would be within the 12-18" the NWS map shows for 7 am through tomorrow for our swath in the map below (and close to the 13" of additional snow shown for nearby New Brunswick) from 7 am until the end, which would give me 21-22" total. I like the "expected snowfall" maps from 7 am this morning through 7 am Weds (with most of it today, obviously), but wish they'd also include a "storm total" graphic.

Edit: after my 7 am measurement, it took me awhile to catch up to the models, the NWS discussions and posts, etc. and I forgot to add, that it's been pouring snow since about 8 am here. About to go out and do our 2nd shovel of the event.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes. @bac2therac - you must be getting crushed right now. Cha-ching eh? Stay safe on the roads...

Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and ~10" at 10 am (getting hard to measure) and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am. Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour. Hard work, but so nice being outside in it. Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it. Had some friends who had to drive to work and they said it was an "adventure" - not horrible on the highways, but treacherous on the secondary roads.

 

[rcube1994]

What is the correct snowblower strategy for Middletown? I usually prefer to wait until everything is over, but last storm we have a covering of ice which made it much more difficult. Are we going to get a change to rain on this one?

 

[ldwnmas]

Just came in from shoveling in North Brunswick it has been sleeting the last hour and a half with some snow mixed in

That’s interesting, we’ve had no sleet in Highland Park, just huge heavy snow flakes since about 8am. Accumulated at least 3 inches since then.

 

[Tango Two]

 

[RU848789]

I always debate is it worth clearing snow during the storm or just wait until
It’s over

I'd say do it in stages, especially since the stuff until now (at least where there hasn't been a changeover) has been pretty light and is easy to move, while the snow to come will be wetter and heavier and harder to move, plus, I always like to get to what has been plowed into my driveway before it becomes a solid frozen mass, as there's usually salt in there which melts some of the pack, which then refreezes solid.

 

[jtung230]

10am - 8” in Summit. Luckily, it’s light fluffy snow.

 

[Doteman]

Over a foot in Pway

 

[RocktheRac]

IT must be 2-3 in hr in Hillsborough now . Over 1 ft. Im gonna say when this is all over Hillsborough will have 23 inches. It may reach over 30.

 

[RU848789]

Maps posted on this board yesterday afternoon had as much as 24 inches for Philly. And I got accused, light heartedly, of whining. Looks like they whiffed big time for round 1. Don't see the afternoon making up for it. Since waking up the only thing we have had has been light sleet. Radar has nothing in Philly. End line of Storm is Wilmington DE.

Those were model maps and I know I usually say those aren't forecasts, but are just being shared for people to get a sense of what's possible (maybe some others said they were forecasts) - some model maps also showed just 6" for Philly. And no actual snowfall forecast map showed more than about a foot for Philly (NWS has had 11-12" for 2 days for Philly), other than TWC which had Philly in the 12-18" range - our own @RUJohnny had you at 8-14" (and some had 6-12") and I told you you'd get at least 10" and you should still, as the NWS is still forecasting 6-8" more with 3-4" on the ground). If you don't get 10" of snow you can ask for your money back.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

I'd say do it in stages, especially since the stuff until now (at least where there hasn't been a changeover) has been pretty light and is easy to move, while the snow to come will be wetter and heavier and harder to move, plus, I always like to get to what has been plowed into my driveway before it becomes a solid frozen mass, as there's usually salt in there which melts some of the pack, which then refreezes solid.

10.5 as of 10:15. Also Metuchen. Cleared off sidewalk, path to our porch and a brief stretch of our driveway.

My Toro was purchased for Cleveland but seems to work in NJ as well.

 

[OTBOTOR]

I'm going to guess we crossed a foot here in Jersey City. I still have a lot of bare ground and huge drifts though. But the drifts are higher now than they were in the December storm, when the official observation here was 10 inches.

 

[bac2therac]

around 10 or 10.5 inches maybe 11 in Belle Mead

 

[VW Knight]

Looks like we're once again smack dap on that waffling line between rain and snow. Last time we got real lucky with the rain didn't have to do a thing. Unfortunately I think this time we're looking at just enough rain to make this crap as heavy as possible to move as it's now moving back to snow..

Just got in from cleaning. Every bit of wintry precipitation was dropping on me. Heavy as hell compared to last night.

 

[mildone]

OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes. @bac2therac - you must be getting crushed right now. Cha-ching eh? Stay safe on the roads...

Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and 10.5" at 10 am and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am. Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour. Hard work, but so nice being outside in it. Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it. Had some friends who had to drive to work and they said it was an "adventure" - not horrible on the highways, but treacherous on the secondary roads.

I can confirm that our area is just under 12".

I used the official snow-weanie method of measuring. Got nekkid, went out onto back deck, thought about Olivia Wilde, did front-facing snow-angel, and immediately got a splinter on the end of my dingus. Ouch!

Gonna make a first pass on clearing my neighbor's and my front walks and sidewalks. Might do via shovel for the workout, save the snowblower the driveways later on.

 

[RocktheRac]

That band is not moving over me. Its pouring snow. Its been like this for 2 hrs.

 

[SouthJerseyRU]

I can confirm that our area is just under 12".

I used the official snow-weanie method of measuring. Got nekkid, went out onto back deck, thought about Olivia Wilde, did front-facing snow-angel, and immediately got a splinter on the end of my dingus. Ouch!

Gonna make a first pass on clearing my neighbor's and my front walks and sidewalks. Might do via shovel for the workout, save the snowblower the driveways later on.

Used the same method, took me 3 snow angels but eventually got to 12" as well.

 

[goru1869]

Looks like a good 20" on my balcony here in Flanders. 24 more hours of this ? CRAZY !

 

[Postman_1]

Just measured in a few spots a little over 3" in Hamilton. The Mt Holly map had me in the 15" range. I doubt we even get 8". While the forcast maps are performing for Brunswick and up north major bust potential for anyone from exit 8A going south. I was hoping for more outta this storm

 

[WhiteBus]

Those were model maps and I know I usually say those aren't forecasts, but are just being shared for people to get a sense of what's possible (maybe some others said they were forecasts) - some model maps also showed just 6" for Philly. And no actual snowfall forecast map showed more than about a foot for Philly (NWS has had 11-12" for 2 days for Philly), other than TWC which had Philly in the 12-18" range - our own @RUJohnny had you at 8-14" (and some had 6-12") and I told you you'd get at least 10" and you should still, as the NWS is still forecasting 6-8" more with 3-4" on the ground). If you don't get 10" of snow you can ask for your money back.

I'll disagree about only thing. The TWC wasnt the only one to have Philly 12-18 forecast range. The NWC didn't move Philly to the 8-12 range until 5pm yesterday. Before that they were in the 12-18 range since Saturday.

 

[RocktheRac]

Finally found my yardstick. 15 inches in Hillsborough

 

[famousbill19]

Finally found my yardstick. 15 inches in Hillsborough

... and still coming down HARD

 

[RocktheRac]

We gonna get 30.

 

[Ronnie_B]

These kind of storms with high winds and snowdrifts galore must be impossible to measure the amounts, it could be 10" in one spot of your property and 15" in another.

 

[Tango Two]

NWS:

[1045 AM update] A band of heavy snow continues to develop this morning just south of Interstate-78. This band of snow is forecast to continue to expand late this morning. The sleet and freezing rain mix will change back over to snow soon (except right along the coast). Underneath this band, another 12 to 24" of snowfall is forecast. Snow will then continue through the evening hours. Expect slippery and hazardous road conditions.


For our full winter forecast, please see here: https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter


For our latest briefing package, please see here: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

 

[bac2therac]

updated

NOUS41 KPHI 011517
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-020317-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1017 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

...Delaware...

...New Castle County...
Hockessin 3.2 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...New Jersey...

...Burlington County...
Bordentown 4.8 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public
Mount Laurel 3.3 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
1 WNW South Jersey Regional 3.0 in 0630 AM 02/01 NWS Employee
3 ENE Wrightstown 3.0 in 0714 AM 02/01
Delran 2.5 in 0945 AM 02/01 Public

...Camden County...
1 S Springdale 3.5 in 0830 AM 02/01 NWS Employee

...Gloucester County...
Sewell 3.0 in 0631 AM 02/01 Public

...Hunterdon County...
Byram 9.0 in 0745 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Stanton 7.5 in 0740 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Readington Twp 6.2 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Flemington 6.0 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Mercer County...
Ewing 6.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Robbinsville Twp. 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public
2 ENE Hamilton Twp 3.8 in 0730 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Middlesex County...
1 W Hopelawn 10.5 in 1000 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Port Reading 9.5 in 0820 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
North Brunswick 9.5 in 0950 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Old Bridge 8.5 in 0950 AM 02/01 Public
Parlin 8.3 in 0600 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Edison 8.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public
2 WSW Rossmoor 7.8 in 0945 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
1 SSW Plainsboro Township 7.4 in 0825 AM 02/01 NWS Employee
Perth Amboy 7.0 in 0500 AM 02/01 Public

...Monmouth County...
Hazlet 11.0 in 0930 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Keyport 8.5 in 1000 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Manalapan Twp 8.3 in 1010 AM 02/01 Public
Middletown Twp 7.0 in 0957 AM 02/01 Public
Marlboro 6.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Long Branch 6.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Freehold Twp 5.7 in 0632 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Leonardo 5.0 in 0920 AM 02/01 Public
Manasquan 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Public

...Morris County...
Succasunna 11.5 in 0930 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Jefferson Twp 9.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Morristown 9.0 in 0915 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media
2 NNE Brookside 8.5 in 0645 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Marcella 7.5 in 0915 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Florham Park 6.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Montville 6.0 in 0815 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Rockaway 5.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public

...Somerset County...
Rocky Hill 8.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Green Brook Twp 7.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Belle Mead 6.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Sussex County...
1 W Wantage Twp 6.5 in 0920 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Stockholm 4.0 in 0658 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Warren County...
Hackettstown 6.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Stewartsville 5.7 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
1 SSE Marksboro 5.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 Cocorahs
Blairstown 4.6 in 0745 AM 02/01 Cocorahs
Hope 3.7 in 0435 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Pennsylvania...

...Berks County...
Huffs Church 6.1 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
1 S Shillington 5.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
West Wyomissing 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public
Wyomissing 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Bucks County...
Riegelsville 6.5 in 0730 AM 02/01 CO-OP Observer
Buckingham Twp 6.0 in 0923 AM 02/01 Public
Langhorne 5.5 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
New Hope 5.0 in 0640 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Trumbauersville 5.0 in 0715 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Newtown 4.5 in 0730 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Bensalem 4.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Doylestown 4.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public

...Carbon County...
Towamensing Twp 10.0 in 0915 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Chester County...
2 ESE Exton 3.5 in 0850 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Delaware County...
Chadds Ford Twp 2.0 in 0840 AM 02/01 Public

...Lehigh County...
Lehigh Valley International 8.1 in 0700 AM 02/01 ASOS
Whitehall Twp 7.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Breinigsville 6.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
1 NW Claussville 5.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Montgomery County...
New Hanover Twp 5.8 in 0750 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Skippack Twp 4.8 in 0945 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Lansdale 3.5 in 0840 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Eagleville 3.3 in 0515 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter

...Northampton County...
Hellertown 7.4 in 0730 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Bangor 7.0 in 0930 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Pen Argyl 6.5 in 0900 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter
Williams Twp 5.5 in 0745 AM 02/01 Public

...Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia International A 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 ASOS
&&

 

[RUhasarrived]

The heaviest snow I've ever seen was on the morning of that pre-Valentine's day storm of 2014.

 

[bac2therac]

OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes. @bac2therac - you must be getting crushed right now. Cha-ching eh? Stay safe on the roads...

Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and 10.5" at 10 am and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am. Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour. Hard work, but so nice being outside in it. Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it. Had some friends who had to drive to work and they said it was an "adventure" - not horrible on the highways, but treacherous on the secondary roads.

we are getting pretty heavy snow but Im a little south of the heaviest....Rock is saying he has over a foot about 5 miles away from me but I have less..location huge with the banding

 

[RUevolution36]

After an hour of heavy sleet in South Brunswick, its now all steady snow. Unofficial snow total about 9 plus.

i think it's more than that. i just did my first snowblower pass of the day and had 7 or 8 on the ground after clearing around 6 before bed last night. could be drifting, but it was a lot and straining my small snowblower because it was heavy as well.

 

[Ty Webb]

Light snow in the Marlton/Medford area for the last hour or so.

 

[RocktheRac]

This keeps up till evening I may get to 36

 

[CERU00]

But as you also see that they lowered Philly away from the 12-18. Good Morning America is live in Philly at Independence Hall/Liberty Bell area. (Simply called Independence Mall).
They now are calling for just 6-8 here. Not much if anything overnight. Not snowing right now. Radar shows most of this area with nothing right now.

So far

Every. Single. Time

Absolute bust in Northwest Delaware. Forecast of 10-12, actual 3 at the DE/Pa border.

It's now been at least 4 years since we've seen any serious snow.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

This keeps up till evening I may get to 36

Hope you guys make good coin plowing.

I have 3 neighbors lined up for a little gig

 

[MulletCork]

Just sold some dude a used snow shovel for $18!
Have 2 more to sell and 2 electric ones. Capitalism baybay!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

This keeps up till evening I may get to 36

Snowbomb in NWNJ

 

[goru1869]

We gonna get 30.

Those of us in Morris county will race you to 30. Looks like we have a we bit of a lead.

 

[goru1869]

Just sold some dude a used snow shovel for $18!
Have 2 more to sell and 2 electric ones. Capitalism baybay!

God bless America. Long live capitalism !

 

[T2Kplus20]

We gonna get 30.

The recent record in Monty/Belle Mead is 28 inches (from 2016).

 

[RU5781]

Definitely a bust in Hamilton. Got maybe 3-4 inches yesterday and now it's sleeting.