OT: Minor Wintry Event Tuesday (2/9); Minor/Moderate Event Likely Thurs (2/11-12) for most

RU848789

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Well, this is a cold and snowy pattern, which has already delivered 26" of snow at my house and 20-40" for 90% of CNJ/NNJ and E-PA N of 276 and NYC metro/LI/SENY and even 10-20" for most of SNJ/SE PA. And it's set to continue this week with two more threats this week (and maybe one more next weekend), while we also have well below normal and at times far below normal temperatures with almost all of this week (and possibly next week) staying below 32F.

The first threat is fairly minor event on Tuesday with not much moisture to work with, as a storm approaches from the west early Tuesday with precip during the day mostly, kind of like today (but much less) Model variability is huge right now withi everything from nothing for the 95 corridor to a few inches; most models focus the snowfall of a few inches N of 78, as temps might be too warm for snow south of 78. The NWS is calling for <1" south of 78 and 1-2" north of there, but there is the potential for up to 3-4" in some models. See the map below and the storm thread on 33andrain.

The more substantial threat is a storm that will likely approach from the SW (in a "southwest flow event" or SWFE) bringing a fair amount of wintry precip from the pre-dawn hours on Thursday throughout the day. There will be more cold air to work with for this event and a lot more precip. Right now the models are showing more precip/snow/mix south of 78 with the potential for 6" or more where it's all snow. This could be one of those events with all snow NW of 95, mostly snow near/along 95 and a mix SE of 95 and towards the coast, but it's too far out to speculate on who will get what (4 days out), especially with nowhere near any model consensus, other than to say a winter storm is likely. Stay tuned on that one.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2021-february-9-2021-northeast-overrunning-light-snow/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2010-weather-threats-winter-2020-21-edition-part-ii/


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National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The next system is expected to make a quick pass over the region on
Tuesday. There remains a bit of uncertainty as with systems a few
weeks ago, this one will be dependent on a weak northern stream
short wave trough phasing with a southern stream short wave
trough/vorticity maximum. No major changes in the latest update with
this system. It still appears that the best lift will be mostly
northwest of our region, but the southern Poconos and NW NJ will be
cold enough through out the event to remain all snow. Despite modest
QPF amounts, the snow ratios should be enough to support widespread
1 to 2 inches, though amounts above 3 inches are possible especially
if the snow begins late Tuesday night (somewhat uncertain and
dependent on how quickly the two troughs phase).

For the rest of the region, the low level southerly flow will result
in warm air advection leading to the snow (if it starts early enough
to start as snow) changing over to a rain/snow mix, and eventually
all rain. Some guidance does show an elevated warm layer, especially
early on in the day, so I can`t rule out a brief period of freezing
rain and/or sleet, but the period of transition should be brief.
Thus, a glaze of ice will also be possible, but not confident on
that yet.

Much like the timing with today`s storm, precipitation should
quickly move out in the late afternoon and early evening. Clouds may
linger for a while longer though.However, with winds shifting to
northwesterly and cold air advection, leading to low temperatures in
the teens to mid 20s.

Wed night/Thursday/Friday... The next in a string of weather systems
approaches from the south/west as low pressure starts to deepen
across the Tenn. Valley Thu. and tracks towards the Middle Altantic
region by Fri. It appears at this time that enough of the cold air
to the north will be across the area at onset to produce a variety
of winter weather for many areas. It does look like a decent feed of
Gulf of Mexico moisture will be available, so the QPF forecasts may
be notable when it arrives. We will be watching this closely this
week because it may create some impacts for the late week period.
Right now, probably a (mostly) snow event for the N/W areas, a mix
for the Delaware Valley and rain for Delmarva areas. This will, no
doubt, change through the week as the details become clearer. The
latest EC/GFS offer snow for many areas with the CMC waiting until
Fri to produce its precip.
 

camdenlawprof

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I know it's much too early to know much about the coming weekend, but is there any info available? A friend of mine will be driving from D.C. Saturday morning to meet his two sons in Princeton for an important occasion, and the last thing they need is snow.
 

RU848789

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I know it's much too early to know much about the coming weekend, but is there any info available? A friend of mine will be driving from D.C. Saturday morning to meet his two sons in Princeton for an important occasion, and the last thing they need is snow.
There are regular model runs and weather board discussions of threats a week out, but the uncertainty is really high. Right now, there are models showing wintry weather for Thurs/Fri and Sun/Mon, but if the "spacing" of either of these changes substantially, Saturday could be at risk, but it's just too far out to know. If you want to follow on your own, I can share links or you can look at the ones I post regularly.
 
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camdenlawprof

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There are regular model runs and weather board discussions of threats a week out, but the uncertainty is really high. Right now, there are models showing wintry weather for Thurs/Fri and Sun/Mon, but if the "spacing" of either of these changes substantially, Saturday could be at risk, but it's just too far out to know. If you want to follow on your own, I can share links or you can look at the ones I post regularly.

Thanks. I'll look at yours. My friend lost his wife to breast cancer a year ago, and would like to be with his two adult sons to mark the occasion. He does not want to be alone, and I can't blame him. The wife was a friend of mine in law school long ago, so I know a little of what he is going through.
 

RU848789

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Well, this is a cold and snowy pattern, which has already delivered 26" of snow at my house and 20-40" for 90% of CNJ/NNJ and E-PA N of 276 and NYC metro/LI/SENY and even 10-20" for most of SNJ/SE PA. And it's set to continue this week with two more threats this week (and maybe one more next weekend), while we also have well below normal and at times far below normal temperatures with almost all of this week (and possibly next week) staying below 32F.

The first threat is fairly minor event on Tuesday with not much moisture to work with, as a storm approaches from the west early Tuesday with precip during the day mostly, kind of like today (but much less) Model variability is huge right now withi everything from nothing for the 95 corridor to a few inches; most models focus the snowfall of a few inches N of 78, as temps might be too warm for snow south of 78. The NWS is calling for <1" south of 78 and 1-2" north of there, but there is the potential for up to 3-4" in some models. See the map below and the storm thread on 33andrain.

The more substantial threat is a storm that will likely approach from the SW (in a "southwest flow event" or SWFE) bringing a fair amount of wintry precip from the pre-dawn hours on Thursday throughout the day. There will be more cold air to work with for this event and a lot more precip. Right now the models are showing more precip/snow/mix south of 78 with the potential for 6" or more where it's all snow. This could be one of those events with all snow NW of 95, mostly snow near/along 95 and a mix SE of 95 and towards the coast, but it's too far out to speculate on who will get what (4 days out), especially with nowhere near any model consensus, other than to say a winter storm is likely. Stay tuned on that one.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2021-february-9-2021-northeast-overrunning-light-snow/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2010-weather-threats-winter-2020-21-edition-part-ii/


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National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 PM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The next system is expected to make a quick pass over the region on
Tuesday. There remains a bit of uncertainty as with systems a few
weeks ago, this one will be dependent on a weak northern stream
short wave trough phasing with a southern stream short wave
trough/vorticity maximum. No major changes in the latest update with
this system. It still appears that the best lift will be mostly
northwest of our region, but the southern Poconos and NW NJ will be
cold enough through out the event to remain all snow. Despite modest
QPF amounts, the snow ratios should be enough to support widespread
1 to 2 inches, though amounts above 3 inches are possible especially
if the snow begins late Tuesday night (somewhat uncertain and
dependent on how quickly the two troughs phase).

For the rest of the region, the low level southerly flow will result
in warm air advection leading to the snow (if it starts early enough
to start as snow) changing over to a rain/snow mix, and eventually
all rain. Some guidance does show an elevated warm layer, especially
early on in the day, so I can`t rule out a brief period of freezing
rain and/or sleet, but the period of transition should be brief.
Thus, a glaze of ice will also be possible, but not confident on
that yet.

Much like the timing with today`s storm, precipitation should
quickly move out in the late afternoon and early evening. Clouds may
linger for a while longer though.However, with winds shifting to
northwesterly and cold air advection, leading to low temperatures in
the teens to mid 20s.

Wed night/Thursday/Friday... The next in a string of weather systems
approaches from the south/west as low pressure starts to deepen
across the Tenn. Valley Thu. and tracks towards the Middle Altantic
region by Fri. It appears at this time that enough of the cold air
to the north will be across the area at onset to produce a variety
of winter weather for many areas. It does look like a decent feed of
Gulf of Mexico moisture will be available, so the QPF forecasts may
be notable when it arrives. We will be watching this closely this
week because it may create some impacts for the late week period.
Right now, probably a (mostly) snow event for the N/W areas, a mix
for the Delaware Valley and rain for Delmarva areas. This will, no
doubt, change through the week as the details become clearer. The
latest EC/GFS offer snow for many areas with the CMC waiting until
Fri to produce its precip.

Tomorrow's event, which should mainly be from about sunrise to about mid-afternoon has trended a bit snowier - seems like it just wants to snow in this pattern. The forecast is now for 2-4" of snow north of about 80 in E-PA/NJ and from about Newark/NYC northward, with amounts decreasing to <1" south of a Doylestown to Perth Amboy line, due to temps warming up and changing the snow over to rain.

Difficult forecast as some models show the 1" line down to near 276/195 with 1-2" north of there to about 78, while other models show the 1" line around 78 with not much south of there. The NWS-NYC is a little more bullish on the snow as you can see from the maps below, as their 2" line is at the Union/Middlesex County border, while the NWS-Philly's 2" line is a little north of 78 in northern Somerset.

Note that this is not a heavy precip event with only 0.2-0.4" of total liquid equivalent (yesterday was 0.5-1.0" LE) and lighter snowfall rates during the daylight with the indirect Feb sunlight (sun angle is more of an issue now) will likely mean less accumulation on even untreated paved surfaces, so travel impacts are unlikely south of 78, but any snow will accumulate on snow on the ground, which cannot be above 32F by definition.

With regard to Thursday/Friday, it's looking like two distinct systems, one on Weds late night into Thursday and another mainly on Friday. The Thursday event has trended weaker and could just be a 1-3"/2-4" snowfall event for most, especially south of 78 (with some freezing rain/sleet possible SE of 95), while the Friday event is all over the place in the models with some showing several inches of snow and some showing a whiff. Not worth diving into the details on these two until we see more of a consensus.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/202...heast-overrunning-light-snow/page/5/#comments

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bac2therac

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most models are not onboard for tomorrow south of 78

the euro still isnt aboard for the Wednesday night into Thursday system
 

Plum Street

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most models are not onboard for tomorrow south of 78

the euro still isnt aboard for the Wednesday night into Thursday system
This probably isn’t good for snow haters . Last Thursday the models were showing Sunday wouldn’t be much.
 

hrdcorhays

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Feb 5, 2003
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What year was it, maybe 5 years ago, where we got hit with a storm seemingly every week? It was either '16,17, or 18.I lived in a condo complex in Somerset, and there was just nowhere to put the snow in the assigned lot. It was piled up 5' high around and between the spots.
 

Degaz-RU

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What year was it, maybe 5 years ago, where we got hit with a storm seemingly every week? It was either '16,17, or 18.I lived in a condo complex in Somerset, and there was just nowhere to put the snow in the assigned lot. It was piled up 5' high around and between the spots.

There was also the winter of 1993-94, when we got 14 storms, many of which were awful mixed precip/ice type storms, but some of which were snow.
 

RUDiddy777

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That was a bad one. One of the first storms had a bunch of ice and temperatures plummeted for the next week. All the roads were hockey rinks for days.

I remember that. I literally played ice hockey in the street in front of my house. Had 2 inches of ice.
 
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fsg2

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There was also the winter of 1993-94, when we got 14 storms, many of which were awful mixed precip/ice type storms, but some of which were snow.

Great winter. Remember getting a week off school for one of those nasty ice storms.

Was also my first year snowboarding, good one to start. Just two years later was even better.
 

RU848789

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1994 was the worst winter i remember
it was certainly the iciest from what I've heard, which I missed, as I was in Ireland for almost all of Dec/Jan for work - my luckily work paid for snow removal while I was away - otherwise my then-pregnant wife would've have skewered me, lol. However, in NB, 93/94 was the 8th snowiest (51") since 1895, with 95/96 being the snowiest by far (76").

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow
 
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Scarlet4Shore

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Please no rain tomorrow in Monmouth County. I just got back from a wonderful time snow shoeing. I want to go again tomorrow before work.
 

RocktheRac

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That ice was crazy. I remember that they used to shut off power to conserve energy. I remember it going off as I was waiting for my truck to be repaired at Flemington Ford.
 

RU848789

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Tomorrow's event, which should mainly be from about sunrise to about mid-afternoon has trended a bit snowier - seems like it just wants to snow in this pattern. The forecast is now for 2-4" of snow north of about 80 in E-PA/NJ and from about Newark/NYC northward, with amounts decreasing to <1" south of a Doylestown to Perth Amboy line, due to temps warming up and changing the snow over to rain.

Difficult forecast as some models show the 1" line down to near 276/195 with 1-2" north of there to about 78, while other models show the 1" line around 78 with not much south of there. The NWS-NYC is a little more bullish on the snow as you can see from the maps below, as their 2" line is at the Union/Middlesex County border, while the NWS-Philly's 2" line is a little north of 78 in northern Somerset.

Note that this is not a heavy precip event with only 0.2-0.4" of total liquid equivalent (yesterday was 0.5-1.0" LE) and lighter snowfall rates during the daylight with the indirect Feb sunlight (sun angle is more of an issue now) will likely mean less accumulation on even untreated paved surfaces, so travel impacts are unlikely south of 78, but any snow will accumulate on snow on the ground, which cannot be above 32F by definition.

With regard to Thursday/Friday, it's looking like two distinct systems, one on Weds late night into Thursday and another mainly on Friday. The Thursday event has trended weaker and could just be a 1-3"/2-4" snowfall event for most, especially south of 78 (with some freezing rain/sleet possible SE of 95), while the Friday event is all over the place in the models with some showing several inches of snow and some showing a whiff. Not worth diving into the details on these two until we see more of a consensus.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/202...heast-overrunning-light-snow/page/5/#comments

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NWS just issued advisories for Sussex, the Poconos, W. Passaic, N. Bergen and the Hudson Valley for 2-4" of snow, largely north of about I-80 tomorrow early morning into the early afternoon. The 1" line is from about Frenchtown to Carteret, but as many pros have been saying, there will be very cold air in place at the start of this event (mid-20s for the 95 corridor even), so having a fairly weak system approaching from the west (this is not a coastal storm, but is a SW flow event or SWFE as are the possible systems on Thurs and Fri) dislodging that cold air will not be simple and this event could overperform if the warm air doesn't come in and change the snow to rain south of about 78 and it's possible we could see 1-2" between 276/195 and 78 before any change to rain.

For the late Weds through Thursday morning event, which is another low approaching from the west (not a coastal) that's trending more minor for areas N of 276/195 with models showing a more general 1-3" north of that line and 2-4" south of that line, although it's still possible this could be a moderate 2-4" event up to 78. With very cold air in place, precip type is likely to be snow - the issue is suppression from the confluence from the very cold air to our north keeping most of the snow to the south.

Hopefully we'll start to see more consensus from the models on this by tonight. And the possible Friday event, which is another low approaching from the west (not a coastal) is all over the place from whiffs to a minor/moderate event, but this is not expected to be even a significant storm either - however, with the two systems close in time to each other, it's possible the combination of the two could result in a significant amount of snow for some (3-6") from late Wed through Fri morning. A stronger coastal storm is possible for Sunday, but way too far out to speculate on. Nice write-up on all of these from the NWS-Philly below.


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https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
352 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...Fair weather will continue into the early overnight as
high pressure pushes further away from the region. Clear skies early
with increasing clouds by midnight. Low temperatures will drop into
the teens up north and the low/mid 20s in most other areas. Winds
will remain light. After midnight, moisture from the next system
will arrive across the area. Pops increase from W to E late with
slight chc pops S/E and likely pops N/W by dawn. P-type will be snow
in most areas by 12Z. There could be a little freezing rain across
the rural areas W of Philadelphia by dawn, but confid in this is not
great attm so we`ll just mention slight chc in the grids. An
advisory will go into effect for Carbon and Monroe counties of PA
and Sussex county NJ overnight with the accums expected to be
some 3 to 4 inches through Tuesday.

Tuesday...Snow will continue to overspread the area early before a
change to rain from S to N occurs later in the morning across most
of NJ and Delmarva. The N/W more areas will remain cold enough for
snow all day. Accums will be mostly 2-4 inches for the Lehigh
Valley, Berks county PA and much of nrn NJ. Lighter amounts are
expected for the metro Philadelphia areas and central NJ. The advisory
will continue into the afternoon for the nrn areas. High temperatures
Tue will reach the upper 20s to low 30s for the nrn areas and low to
mid 40s for srn NJ and much of Delmarva.
&&

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The active weather pattern continues mid to late week. To begin
the period, low pressure moves off the coast Tuesday night
bringing a cold front through with a transient high briefly
moving in into early Wednesday. However by late Wednesday, an
upper level disturbance will be approaching as it`s ejected
eastward from the broad polar vortex over central Canada. This
will lead to increasing cloudiness with a chance of light snow
or a rain/snow mix by late day over eastern PA as it arrives
from the west. Highs range from the 20s north to the 30s over SE
PA through much of central/southern NJ, and Delmarva.

Wednesday night into Thursday, aformentioned disturbance moves
east interacting with the strong west/east oriented baroclinic
near the mid Atlantic. This will result in a weak area of
surface low pressure developing near Virginia with an inverted
trough extending north towards the area. Trend has been weaker
and farther south with this system which makes sense given that
this is more of a stable type of wave near the periphery of an
arctic air mass. As a result, our forecast has trended colder
and more towards snow meaning this could still be a fairly
impactful winter system. In terms of the details, snow moves in
west to east Wednesday night with some rain or mixed
precipitation still possible over southern areas over southern
Delmarva into far southern NJ. This could include a bit of sleet
or freezing rain though the threat for this looks lower now
compared to previous thinking. Overall, precipitation intensity
looks to be light to possibly moderate at times but this will
depend on the strength and track of the system and there is
still some uncertainty on this.

Snow looks to continue across much of the area through the
first part of Thursday with mixing continuing to be possible in
far southern areas through southern Delmarva into southern NJ.
However it should be noted if this trend south continues, even
these area could see mostly snow.

By late day Thursday there may be a lull in precipitation
before a second impulse could bring another round of
precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Our current forecast
is for a general 1 to 4 inches of snow across much of the area
by late Thursday but again there remains uncertainty on this and
on where the heaviest amounts may occur. &&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active winter pattern continues through the weekend as the
broad polar vortex over central Canada looks to gradually drift
eastward. As this occurs, it will result in additional chances
for precipitation with temperatures generally running below
average. That said, the pattern is quite volatile and there has
been a lot of inconsistency in the long range forecast models so
confidence in the specific forecast details is below average at
this time.

In terms of how the forecast breaks down, following the round
of precipitation that moves through Wednesday night into
Thursday another wave looks to move through along the wavering
front to our south Thursday night into Friday. This has the
potential to bring additional accumulating snow in another round
of light to potentially moderate precipitation but confidence
is still low at this time as it will again depend on the
strength of the wave and where exactly the baroclinic zone sets
up.

Following the late week system there looks to be another
reprieve by late Friday into early Saturday. However as the
upper level low moves from central Canada towards the Great
Lakes this looks to eventually initiate another low pressure
system over the east that has the potential to be stronger and
tap into richer moisture from the south as the pattern becomes
more amplified. Depending on the track the system takes this
could bring more snow to the region or snow changing to rain by
late Saturday into Sunday.
 
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RUPete

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That ice was crazy. I remember that they used to shut off power to conserve energy. I remember it going off as I was waiting for my truck to be repaired at Flemington Ford.
It was horrible. You couldn’t find rock salt in the stores. People were throwing Morton’s down after awhile.
 

DJ Spanky

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What is the timing on this storm tomorrow morning?
 

RU848789

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What is the timing on this storm tomorrow morning?
"NWS just issued advisories for Sussex, the Poconos, W. Passaic, N. Bergen and the Hudson Valley for 2-4" of snow, largely north of about I-80 tomorrow early morning into the early afternoon." I get not reading all of it, but it's the first sentence, lol. If you need more granular than that, just click on your location and the hourly weather graphic...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli...phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=242&map_y=45#.YCHV6-hKh3h
 

RU848789

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AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno saying Philly to NYC could be in line for 6-12" of snow for the two systems (or one long one) on Thursday/Friday. The potential is there given the "blocking" pattern I've been talking about for awhile (a piece of the polar vortex sitting in central/eastern Canada, keeping cold air in place over much of the northern half of the US, along with an active subtropical jet stream carrying shortwaves across the US, tapping Gulf/Atlantic moisture and bringing it to us with the cold air in place), but the models are showing more like 4-8" being possible and the location for all of this is all over the place.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/another-foot-of-snow-on-the-way-for-nyc/896002

Another 6-12 inches of snow could be in store for some part of the Northeast with AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches anticipated.

“We could be looking at accumulating snow along the I-95 corridor. D.C. didn’t get much from Sunday's storm. You may get an inch or 2 from this one — and the heaviest may be around New York City and Philadelphia," Rayno said.

AccuWeather is calling for Philadelphia and New York City to be right on the line between a 6- to 12-inch storm and a 3- to 6-inch storm. Farther inland, Pittsburgh is predicted to pick up another 3 to 6 inches of snow.
 

bac2therac

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and there are some models showing a whiff or rain

I cannot believe you actually posted that article which has ZERO model support, even 33andrain posters called it out

its called confirmation bias
 

RU848789

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and there are some models showing a whiff or rain

I cannot believe you actually posted that article which has ZERO model support, even 33andrain posters called it out

its called confirmation bias
Just thought it was interesting and I said it was not supported by the models. I even said a couple of hours ago that 3-6" looks like a much more realistic (and we might not even see that) outcome, but this is the kind of pattern where storms tend to overperform vs. the models - look no further than last week, yesterday and possibly tomorrow.