OT: Minor Wintry Event Tuesday (2/9); Minor/Moderate Event Likely Thurs (2/11-12) for most

RUDiddy777

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Ice storms were great for high speed sledding when I was 10 and didn't get sore when we crashed into something. That ice storm was incredibly fun at that age.

Amazing being young. I’d go out and shovel 10-15 driveways and make (what I thought) was a killing and wouldn’t feel a thing.

Now I’m sore from pushing a snowblower around.
 

RU848789

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NWS just issued advisories for Sussex, the Poconos, W. Passaic, N. Bergen and the Hudson Valley for 2-4" of snow, largely north of about I-80 tomorrow early morning into the early afternoon. The 1" line is from about Frenchtown to Carteret, but as many pros have been saying, there will be very cold air in place at the start of this event (mid-20s for the 95 corridor even), so having a fairly weak system approaching from the west (this is not a coastal storm, but is a SW flow event or SWFE as are the possible systems on Thurs and Fri) dislodging that cold air will not be simple and this event could overperform if the warm air doesn't come in and change the snow to rain south of about 78 and it's possible we could see 1-2" between 276/195 and 78 before any change to rain.

For the late Weds through Thursday morning event, which is another low approaching from the west (not a coastal) that's trending more minor for areas N of 276/195 with models showing a more general 1-3" north of that line and 2-4" south of that line, although it's still possible this could be a moderate 2-4" event up to 78. With very cold air in place, precip type is likely to be snow - the issue is suppression from the confluence from the very cold air to our north keeping most of the snow to the south.

Hopefully we'll start to see more consensus from the models on this by tonight. And the possible Friday event, which is another low approaching from the west (not a coastal) is all over the place from whiffs to a minor/moderate event, but this is not expected to be even a significant storm either - however, with the two systems close in time to each other, it's possible the combination of the two could result in a significant amount of snow for some (3-6") from late Wed through Fri morning. A stronger coastal storm is possible for Sunday, but way too far out to speculate on. Nice write-up on all of these from the NWS-Philly below.


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https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
352 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...Fair weather will continue into the early overnight as
high pressure pushes further away from the region. Clear skies early
with increasing clouds by midnight. Low temperatures will drop into
the teens up north and the low/mid 20s in most other areas. Winds
will remain light. After midnight, moisture from the next system
will arrive across the area. Pops increase from W to E late with
slight chc pops S/E and likely pops N/W by dawn. P-type will be snow
in most areas by 12Z. There could be a little freezing rain across
the rural areas W of Philadelphia by dawn, but confid in this is not
great attm so we`ll just mention slight chc in the grids. An
advisory will go into effect for Carbon and Monroe counties of PA
and Sussex county NJ overnight with the accums expected to be
some 3 to 4 inches through Tuesday.

Tuesday...Snow will continue to overspread the area early before a
change to rain from S to N occurs later in the morning across most
of NJ and Delmarva. The N/W more areas will remain cold enough for
snow all day. Accums will be mostly 2-4 inches for the Lehigh
Valley, Berks county PA and much of nrn NJ. Lighter amounts are
expected for the metro Philadelphia areas and central NJ. The advisory
will continue into the afternoon for the nrn areas. High temperatures
Tue will reach the upper 20s to low 30s for the nrn areas and low to
mid 40s for srn NJ and much of Delmarva.
&&

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The active weather pattern continues mid to late week. To begin
the period, low pressure moves off the coast Tuesday night
bringing a cold front through with a transient high briefly
moving in into early Wednesday. However by late Wednesday, an
upper level disturbance will be approaching as it`s ejected
eastward from the broad polar vortex over central Canada. This
will lead to increasing cloudiness with a chance of light snow
or a rain/snow mix by late day over eastern PA as it arrives
from the west. Highs range from the 20s north to the 30s over SE
PA through much of central/southern NJ, and Delmarva.

Wednesday night into Thursday, aformentioned disturbance moves
east interacting with the strong west/east oriented baroclinic
near the mid Atlantic. This will result in a weak area of
surface low pressure developing near Virginia with an inverted
trough extending north towards the area. Trend has been weaker
and farther south with this system which makes sense given that
this is more of a stable type of wave near the periphery of an
arctic air mass. As a result, our forecast has trended colder
and more towards snow meaning this could still be a fairly
impactful winter system. In terms of the details, snow moves in
west to east Wednesday night with some rain or mixed
precipitation still possible over southern areas over southern
Delmarva into far southern NJ. This could include a bit of sleet
or freezing rain though the threat for this looks lower now
compared to previous thinking. Overall, precipitation intensity
looks to be light to possibly moderate at times but this will
depend on the strength and track of the system and there is
still some uncertainty on this.

Snow looks to continue across much of the area through the
first part of Thursday with mixing continuing to be possible in
far southern areas through southern Delmarva into southern NJ.
However it should be noted if this trend south continues, even
these area could see mostly snow.

By late day Thursday there may be a lull in precipitation
before a second impulse could bring another round of
precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Our current forecast
is for a general 1 to 4 inches of snow across much of the area
by late Thursday but again there remains uncertainty on this and
on where the heaviest amounts may occur. &&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active winter pattern continues through the weekend as the
broad polar vortex over central Canada looks to gradually drift
eastward. As this occurs, it will result in additional chances
for precipitation with temperatures generally running below
average. That said, the pattern is quite volatile and there has
been a lot of inconsistency in the long range forecast models so
confidence in the specific forecast details is below average at
this time.

In terms of how the forecast breaks down, following the round
of precipitation that moves through Wednesday night into
Thursday another wave looks to move through along the wavering
front to our south Thursday night into Friday. This has the
potential to bring additional accumulating snow in another round
of light to potentially moderate precipitation but confidence
is still low at this time as it will again depend on the
strength of the wave and where exactly the baroclinic zone sets
up.

Following the late week system there looks to be another
reprieve by late Friday into early Saturday. However as the
upper level low moves from central Canada towards the Great
Lakes this looks to eventually initiate another low pressure
system over the east that has the potential to be stronger and
tap into richer moisture from the south as the pattern becomes
more amplified. Depending on the track the system takes this
could bring more snow to the region or snow changing to rain by
late Saturday into Sunday.

Tomorrow is no longer such a minor event, at least north of 78. NWS-Philly just expanded the advisories southward one tier of counties, adding Lehigh/Northampton in the Lehigh Valley in NE PA, and adding Warren/Morris in NNJ, for 2-4" of snow starting before dawn and going through the early afternoon. They also bumped the advisories up for the Poconos and Sussex County for 3-5" of snow tomorrow. These were all counties that were on the fringes of Sunday's storm, getting mostly 2-4" of snow.

They also extended the 2" line southward from around I-80 to around I-78 and extended the 1" southward a little bit from Frenchtown to Carteret down to about New Hope to Perth Amboy with <1" south of there. In addition, some models are showing some sleet and freezing rain south of 78, but the NWS hasn't forecasted any, but did note it was something they'd need to keep an eye on.

Models literally all over the place for Thursday and Friday. It's possible most of the precip/snow remains south of 276/195 with 3-6" down there, such that most of CNJ would miss several inches tomorrow and several inches Th/Fr, but it's also possible that 3-6" extends up through CNJ and it's also possible most don't get much at all both days. It's why I'm not talking more about this period.

1hJD61r.png
 

RU848789

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This run is for bac and the snow haters, lol, showing CNJ essentially whiffing on tomorrow to the north and Thurs/Fri to the south. Wouldn't want anyone to think I just post the snowy maps. Tomorrow should verify, but Th/Fr is still way up in the air, but trending towards a storm to our south (this is thru Sat 1 am)...

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 

T2Kplus20

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This run is for bac and the snow haters, lol, showing CNJ essentially whiffing on tomorrow to the north and Thurs/Fri to the south. Wouldn't want anyone to think I just post the snowy maps. Tomorrow should verify, but Th/Fr is still way up in the air, but trending towards a storm to our south (this is thru Sat 1 am)...

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
Great post, thanks! 👍
 

Plum Street

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This run is for bac and the snow haters, lol, showing CNJ essentially whiffing on tomorrow to the north and Thurs/Fri to the south. Wouldn't want anyone to think I just post the snowy maps. Tomorrow should verify, but Th/Fr is still way up in the air, but trending towards a storm to our south (this is thru Sat 1 am)...

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
This is your best post in a long time !!!
 
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DJ Spanky

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Barely anything here, drove into work in Branchburg, nothing along the way.
 

RUPete

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Nothing really in CNJ. It appears the main show was north of 80 in NJ and Westchester, Rockland, etc. listening to the traffic reports on WFAN.
 

Joey Bags

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Current modeling shows CNJ and LI barely receiving a flake over the next 10 days after all the hoopla over an active pattern lol. Of course, this will change but it's just funny to see.

Similar thing happened back in March/February 2014 where models were showing an incredible amount of snow over a 2 week period and we barely ended up with a dusting since the polar vortex pushed everything south.
 
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camdenlawprof

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So is South Jersey in the clear for the storm starting Wednesday night? The NWS forecast (done at 4 a.m., I assume from what @RU848789 has said) still showed 2-4 inches through Thursday. Is this forecast now obsolete?
 

bac2therac

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So is South Jersey in the clear for the storm starting Wednesday night? The NWS forecast (done at 4 a.m., I assume from what @RU848789 has said) still showed 2-4 inches through Thursday. Is this forecast now obsolete?


south jersey may still be at risk from that storm which looks south but anywhere from Trenton north looks in the clear at this point
 

DJ Spanky

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Years from now we'll all be looking back reminiscing about those of us who survived the Feb. 9th Blizzard of Northern NJ!
 
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CranfordKnight

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Total whiff so far here in Cranford.

After a difficult year of deferred entrance and remote learning, we are finally scheduled to move my daughter in to U of Delaware on Friday. We have a 2 hour window from 2-4 pm due to Covid restrictions. How likely are we going to be impacted by the next storm? Will it be over by noon on Friday?
 

RU848789

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Tomorrow is no longer such a minor event, at least north of 78. NWS-Philly just expanded the advisories southward one tier of counties, adding Lehigh/Northampton in the Lehigh Valley in NE PA, and adding Warren/Morris in NNJ, for 2-4" of snow starting before dawn and going through the early afternoon. They also bumped the advisories up for the Poconos and Sussex County for 3-5" of snow tomorrow. These were all counties that were on the fringes of Sunday's storm, getting mostly 2-4" of snow.

They also extended the 2" line southward from around I-80 to around I-78 and extended the 1" southward a little bit from Frenchtown to Carteret down to about New Hope to Perth Amboy with <1" south of there. In addition, some models are showing some sleet and freezing rain south of 78, but the NWS hasn't forecasted any, but did note it was something they'd need to keep an eye on.

Models literally all over the place for Thursday and Friday. It's possible most of the precip/snow remains south of 276/195 with 3-6" down there, such that most of CNJ would miss several inches tomorrow and several inches Th/Fr, but it's also possible that 3-6" extends up through CNJ and it's also possible most don't get much at all both days. It's why I'm not talking more about this period.

1hJD61r.png

NWS whiffed on today's event for everyone except those N of 80 where 2-3" reports are common; <1" south of 80 in most places as far as I can tell from radar/reports. It was cold enough - we just didn't get any precip at all south of 78 and very little south of 80. Oh well.

On to Th/Fr, which is looking like a whiff north of 276/195 with 1" or less north of there. The 2" line is from Philly to LBI and the jackpot (3-5") looks to be from Wilmington to AC and south of there especially. As of now. Changed the thread title to reflect that there's no longer the threat of a significant snowstorm for most.

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RU848789

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Total whiff so far here in Cranford.

After a difficult year of deferred entrance and remote learning, we are finally scheduled to move my daughter in to U of Delaware on Friday. We have a 2 hour window from 2-4 pm due to Covid restrictions. How likely are we going to be impacted by the next storm? Will it be over by noon on Friday?
I wouldn't worry yet. Right now the Newark, DE area looks to get 2-3" overall but only 1" or so on Friday and at midday with light/moderate snow, roads should be fine. You might get a little wet. At the link, click on the hourly weather graphic for all the details (you can adjust the dropdown to change the 48-hr snapshot - default is next 48 hours). This could all still change some, but it's not looking like a big deal on Friday afternoon.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.74990849755704&lat=39.687955697114205#.YCLwKuhKiMo
 
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RU848789

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Current modeling shows CNJ and LI barely receiving a flake over the next 10 days after all the hoopla over an active pattern lol. Of course, this will change but it's just funny to see.

Similar thing happened back in March/February 2014 where models were showing an incredible amount of snow over a 2 week period and we barely ended up with a dusting since the polar vortex pushed everything south.
The pattern has been in place since mid-January and most of us have 20-30+" since then, at least north of 276/195 and even some folks south of there have over 20", but not all (but most have over 10"), so the pattern has delivered (look at my pattern thread on that - I just didn't get around to posting about it until last week, but that doesn't mean it wasn't in place). And it's delivering this week, just not for CNJ - with a pattern it's impossible to know exactly who's going to get snow when, but by the end of this week almost everyone from DC to Boston will be above average in snowfall and many of us in CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI/LHV/EPA will be above average for snowfall for the whole winter already. We've had 24" in Metuchen the last 2 storms and 33.4" for the winter so far, well above the 27" normal.

And don't remind me of March 2014. Posted about that the other day - that will get you banned on the weather boards - unless you lived in DC, lol. While Jan/Feb delivered that year in a similar pattern with about 47" of snow in NB, we got <1" in March, when forecasts 2-3 days before several events were for 3-6" or more, which could have added 10-20" of snow and made a run for snowiest winter ever; instead NB ended up with 56.4" that winter (95-9 record is 76.5").
 
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NWS whiffed on today's event for everyone except those N of 80 where 2-3" reports are common; <1" south of 80 in most places as far as I can tell from radar/reports. It was cold enough - we just didn't get any precip at all south of 78 and very little south of 80. Oh well.

On to Th/Fr, which is looking like a whiff north of 276/195 with 1" or less north of there. The 2" line is from Philly to LBI and the jackpot (3-5") looks to be from Wilmington to AC and south of there especially. As of now.

OMyybyb.png

It would be about time that South Jersey gets accumulating snow and us up in NWNJ don't get anything
 
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jerzey devil

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NWS whiffed on today's event for everyone except those N of 80 where 2-3" reports are common; <1" south of 80 in most places as far as I can tell from radar/reports. It was cold enough - we just didn't get any precip at all south of 78 and very little south of 80. Oh well.

On to Th/Fr, which is looking like a whiff north of 276/195 with 1" or less north of there. The 2" line is from Philly to LBI and the jackpot (3-5") looks to be from Wilmington to AC and south of there especially. As of now.

OMyybyb.png


Give Pennsyltucky a small taste of what we've gotten!! lol...
 

jerzey devil

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And if any snow weenies wanna complain!!! Blame me!! I just Upgraded from a 24" 11 yr old MTD... to a 34" Generac ProMax14HP snowblower!! Fu**ing thing is a beast!!!
 

RUPete

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There was a storm every Wednesday that year. I remember because my son was born in March, 1994. Our Lamaze classes were on Wednesday evenings and they kept getting cancelled.
Yup- Wednesday specials usually in the 6-10 inch range. I think that winter really led to my hatred of the season.
 
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Plum Street

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Yup- Wednesday specials usually in the 6-10 inch range. I think that winter really led to my hatred of the season.
I remember there was an ice storm around mlk weekend and everything was shut for what seemed like a week
 
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fsg2

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I remember there was an ice storm around mlk weekend and everything was shut for what seemed like a week

Sounds about the right time frame for when we had that week off school. It actually got boring by the end of it since you could barely walk outside without risking life and limb.

Getting the mail was the big highlight of the day - scored a fishing catalog I must have read through 40 times that week. That and listening to music - Stone Temple Pilots " Creep" was all over the radio.
 

DJ Spanky

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1994 was the worst winter i remember
I think that was they year where we had so much snow they couldn't get it all off of the highways. Some of the highways (like 80 around Fairfield) lost a lane because that was the only place they could put the snow.
 

RU848789

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NWS whiffed on today's event for everyone except those N of 80 where 2-3" reports are common; <1" south of 80 in most places as far as I can tell from radar/reports. It was cold enough - we just didn't get any precip at all south of 78 and very little south of 80. Oh well.

On to Th/Fr, which is looking like a whiff north of 276/195 with 1" or less north of there. The 2" line is from Philly to LBI and the jackpot (3-5") looks to be from Wilmington to AC and south of there especially. As of now. Changed the thread title to reflect that there's no longer the threat of a significant snowstorm for most.

OMyybyb.png

There's a reason why I almost always leave a caveat in there when we're ~2 days out, as I did above. That's still enough time for things to change somewhat to even substantially. We're at "somewhat" tonight, as the entire 0Z suite, so far, is showing a bit less suppression and a bit more snow north of 276/195, with 1-2" late Weds/early Thurs from 78 down to 276/195 and 2-5" south of 276/195 (the higher amounts down towards Dover to AC); there could even be an inch of snow up to 80.

Anything that falls with temps well below 32F will accumulate on any paved surface so if the models verify, Thursday morning's commute could be impacted. Also,, it now wouldn't take much more of a bump north to get CNJ into the 2-4" amounts (or a bump back to get us back down to an inch or less). NWS will surely bump their snow maps up with their 4 am packages. I'd also expect to see advisories go up for at least Philly to Toms River and south of that line and maybe even up to 276/195 (where the advisory criterion is only 2" - it's 3" north of there).

The Friday event still looks like it'll miss well to the south, while the Sunday event is looking like it could be a bit of a mess (mixed precip), but too early to discuss seriously, as models are all over the place, and next Tuesday also has potential. The pattern just has them lined up with cold air generally in place and some will miss, while some may hit.
 

RU848789

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There's a reason why I almost always leave a caveat in there when we're ~2 days out, as I did above. That's still enough time for things to change somewhat to even substantially. We're at "somewhat" tonight, as the entire 0Z suite, so far, is showing a bit less suppression and a bit more snow north of 276/195, with 1-2" late Weds/early Thurs from 78 down to 276/195 and 2-5" south of 276/195 (the higher amounts down towards Dover to AC); there could even be an inch of snow up to 80.

Anything that falls with temps well below 32F will accumulate on any paved surface so if the models verify, Thursday morning's commute could be impacted. Also,, it now wouldn't take much more of a bump north to get CNJ into the 2-4" amounts (or a bump back to get us back down to an inch or less). NWS will surely bump their snow maps up with their 4 am packages. I'd also expect to see advisories go up for at least Philly to Toms River and south of that line and maybe even up to 276/195 (where the advisory criterion is only 2" - it's 3" north of there).

The Friday event still looks like it'll miss well to the south, while the Sunday event is looking like it could be a bit of a mess (mixed precip), but too early to discuss seriously, as models are all over the place, and next Tuesday also has potential. The pattern just has them lined up with cold air generally in place and some will miss, while some may hit.
The NWS-Phillly did just about what I thought they would for the late Weds through Thursday morning system, issuing advisories for all of the counties south of 276/195 (from Philly across to Burlington/Ocean and south of there, where the criterion is 2" for an advisory) for 2-3" of snow, as well as increasing snowfall totals across the board, including for most of CNJ/EPA from 276/195 northward to 78 into the 1-2" range. With temps well below freezing (except in far SE NJ), everything that falls will accumulate on all surfaces, so the Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted. And the 6Z models this morning all are showing similar amounts as last night and what the NWS now has in its map, roughly. So, it's looking like a minor event N of 276/195 and a moderate event south of that line. As of now.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2024-february-10-14-2021-days-of-wintry-waves/page/7/

R284kzH.png
 
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RUPete

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The NWS-Phillly did just about what I thought they would for the late Weds through Thursday morning system, issuing advisories for all of the counties south of 276/195 (from Philly across to Burlington/Ocean and south of there, where the criterion is 2" for an advisory) for 2-3" of snow, as well as increasing snowfall totals across the board, including for most of CNJ/EPA from 276/195 northward to 78 into the 1-2" range. With temps well below freezing (except in far SE NJ), everything that falls will accumulate on all surfaces, so the Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted. And the 6Z models this morning all are showing similar amounts as last night and what the NWS now has in its map, roughly. So, it's looking like a minor event N of 276/195 and a moderate event south of that line. As of now.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2024-february-10-14-2021-days-of-wintry-waves/page/7/

R284kzH.png
End time for this event?
 

Joey Bags

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The pattern has been in place since mid-January and most of us have 20-30+" since then, at least north of 276/195 and even some folks south of there have over 20", but not all (but most have over 10"), so the pattern has delivered (look at my pattern thread on that - I just didn't get around to posting about it until last week, but that doesn't mean it wasn't in place). And it's delivering this week, just not for CNJ - with a pattern it's impossible to know exactly who's going to get snow when, but by the end of this week almost everyone from DC to Boston will be above average in snowfall and many of us in CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI/LHV/EPA will be above average for snowfall for the whole winter already. We've had 24" in Metuchen the last 2 storms and 33.4" for the winter so far, well above the 27" normal.

And don't remind me of March 2014. Posted about that the other day - that will get you banned on the weather boards - unless you lived in DC, lol. While Jan/Feb delivered that year in a similar pattern with about 47" of snow in NB, we got <1" in March, when forecasts 2-3 days before several events were for 3-6" or more, which could have added 10-20" of snow and made a run for snowiest winter ever; instead NB ended up with 56.4" that winter (95-9 record is 76.5").


2013-2014 was a tremendous winter for our area if you like snow. We had an 8"+ snowpack in Bridgewater for over a month straight. Logged almost 200 miles of cross country skiing that winter.
 

RU848789

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The NWS-Phillly did just about what I thought they would for the late Weds through Thursday morning system, issuing advisories for all of the counties south of 276/195 (from Philly across to Burlington/Ocean and south of there, where the criterion is 2" for an advisory) for 2-3" of snow, as well as increasing snowfall totals across the board, including for most of CNJ/EPA from 276/195 northward to 78 into the 1-2" range. With temps well below freezing (except in far SE NJ), everything that falls will accumulate on all surfaces, so the Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted. And the 6Z models this morning all are showing similar amounts as last night and what the NWS now has in its map, roughly. So, it's looking like a minor event N of 276/195 and a moderate event south of that line. As of now.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2024-february-10-14-2021-days-of-wintry-waves/page/7/

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Every model run this morning (data inputs at 7 am EST for the 12Z GMT runs) increased snowfall amounts northward, with the model consensus roughly being a 2-4" snowfall late tonight through tomorrow morning between 78 (roughly the 2" line) and 276/195 (roughly the 4" line) which is up from the 1-2" for this area seen in last night's models and now the NWS forecast for these areas. And snowfall went from <1" north of 80 to 1-2" and snowfall south of 276/195 is in the general 3-5" range for everyone, including the coast down to Cape May as temps will be below 32F, meaning any snow will accumulate, especially before about 9-10 am (before the sun is a factor and most of the snow wlll fall by then).

Good chance the NWS will extend the advisories to the counties between 78 and 276/195 (Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Middlesex-Monmouth in NJ and Bucks/Montco/Berks in PA), where 3" is the advisory criterion (2" south of 276/195), especially given the 100% likelihood of travel impacts due to the cold temps, if 2-4" fall. The warning criterion is 5" for south of 276/195, so not sure if they'll issue warnings there and they're 6" north of 276/195, so warnings won't be issued there. 2-4" would be a moderate event.
 
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