Fran Brown and the family enjoying the snow!
OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)
- Thread starter RU848789
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agree because its way too variable to figure out ratios, kuchera I think is more valuable in wet snow events or when there are mixing issues
and its over here in Belle Mead...got maybe 6.25 inches, but they got less in Hillsborough, Somerville and Bridgewater
I own what I typed. Still was not too bad to clear.
The storm earlier this year that had heavy wet snow was worse to clear than this one.
If the auger is not spinning you probably broke the shear pins ; otherwise it's the belt. There might be a few spares on the handle of the machine.
First off, I'm sure you're underreporting, which you always do, and secondly, I'm surprised you'd slam bac so hard on his forecast. He and I were actually pretty well aligned yesterday (and close to the NWS forecast) and thought the forecasts were pretty good.
Thought it was pretty good also - helps when you and I can disagree agreeably, which I think we did on a few things, although we were pretty well aligned throughout. If it weren't for T and goruwhatever, there wouldn't have been any trolling and their trolling was just so weak. And the various tangents were entertaining and harmless and what makes this board fun and interesting.
Philly was in the 6-8" swath from the NWS for multiple forecasts, although they did list Philly going from 6" to 7.2" yesterday afternoon, but most reports were within the 6-8" swath (I took the two from before 9 am out, since they were too early) which I think is reasonable. Were local forecasters calling for more (I don't usually see Philly forecasts)?
...Philadelphia County...
1 W Belmont 8.9 in 1230 PM 01/29 Trained Spotter
Philadelphia Internati 7.5 in 0100 PM 01/29 ASOS
Rittenhouse Square 6.2 in 0924 AM 01/29 Public
1 SE Point Breeze 6.0 in 1000 AM 01/29 Trained Spotter
South Philadelphia 4.5 in 1027 AM 01/29 Public
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Radar looks like we should be getting very light snow, but it’s still coming down pretty good here in Bayville. Wouldn’t be surprised if we’re close to 20 inches at this point.
We have stayed at southernmost beach resort the last couple times but opted for a VRBO at the Galleon resort in Mallory square this time
my neighbor is reporting 16 inches in OC with more coming
Is the green the snow on the NWS radar? Or is it the gray too?
Well I'm in South Philly. And we have had this discussion many times before. The Point Breeze "trained spotter" is way over every time. Should not be reporting after the last storm. Look up Point Breeze location. It's in South Philly!
All but one map you posted yesterday was high 7 or 8+
The Airport isn't close to the city and I bet had accumulation yesterday afternoon as it's not in the urban jungle. 6ABC and NBC10 both had 4+ for the Art Museum. The lowest was 5.6 in the maps posted you posted late yesterday.
Again changes to forecasts while the event has started is not an forecast it is an observation.
No 6 in these mapsStorm's going to start soon, folks - probably by 9-10 pm for most, lightly, and the heaviest snow will fall between about 1 am and 11 am Saturday, so be safe, but enjoy...
Updated NWS snowfall maps, below, which have been increased a small amount (an inch or so in most places) vs. 4 am this morning. Also, as per below, they're generally using a snow:liquid ratio of 14:1, which is close to the Kuchera ratio of 15:1 for snowfall maps for this event, at least for 95/coast. I also included the NBM, national blend of models snowfall map that the NWS often uses to guide their forecasts. Think I've had enough of models and maps - time to watch the radar, observations, meso trends and looking out my window and enjoying it all - even shoveling, lol.
One last time: this setup is exquisitely delicate and volatile, such that small changes, even now, could have substantial impacts on the snowfall. As such, the bust potential on both the low and high side is higher than normal.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/208...cussion/page/314/?tab=comments#comment-317275
For OC to have 2 snowstorms over a foot in the same year and same month is probably a first
IDGAS what color, it's still snowing fairly heavily here, and the Weather Channel has said 3-4 times since 2 pm that the snow is done in NJ.
No 6in in this map.And, of course, the Euro moves back east and weaker with less precip (due to a later phase) to almost where the GFS is now. Can't make this up, lol. Still a major snowstorm for 95 and eastward, but not the storm it was advertising the past few runs. Never easy...
Why do you have to start shit with me every time? You have admitted the numbers in other places didn't hit the forecast but you have to single out my post as being inaccurate when I am spot on. It didn't make 6in in South Philly! Right! I'm the guy that lives in Philadelphia. But you act like you do. Idiotic.
Went out with the tape measure and had 16" on the picnic table at 1:30 in Tinton Falls. Still snowing right now.
Did you remember to plug it in?
This house fire was Tuesday a mile from the Herbertsville Fire House.
Where are you at, off Herbertsville area? I love driving by all the farms in Howell.
It's about done now. Real light.
Just got done with the driveway
My problem is my driveway sits lower than my neighbors on either side and when it is windy there are several areas where I get large drifts of close to 2 feet. I will have to go out tomorrow morning and clear a good 30 feet that will have at least a foot of snow.
Of course I also expect to have to clear the bottom of the driveway where the plow blocks you in
My problem is my driveway sits lower than my neighbors on either side and when it is windy there are several areas where I get large drifts of close to 2 feet. I will have to go out tomorrow morning and clear a good 30 feet that will have at least a foot of snow.
Of course I also expect to have to clear the bottom of the driveway where the plow blocks you in
Just got done shoveling/snow blowing in Hamilton. Snow drifts make it tuff to measure. Im going with 8", it was light and fluffy snow. When snow blowing it was blowing right back at your face from the wind. The forecast was spot on for me I'd say. I used my snow rake on the roof hopefully I avoid the ice damns I had last year.
Time for a hot chocolate with fireball
Time for a hot chocolate with fireball
You said, "In Philadelphia you can call it a bust." You didn't say anything about South Philly in that post and my reply was simply pointing out that the Philadelphia reports, other than South Philly, were in the 6-8" range the NWS specified for that area by the yellow color. The specific NWS forecast of 7.9" was for Philadelphia Int'l Airport, as that's the station of record for Philly and what they're specifically referring to if they put a number on a map like they did there. And the Airport reported 7.5", which is pretty damn close to the 7.9" forecast.
You claimed the forecast for "Philadelphia" was a bust and I disagree and I'm trying to show you why. Why that should make you angry is beyond me. If you had said the forecast for South Philly was inaccurate, I would have never responded, since that is correct, as the South Philly report of 4.5" is below the 6-8" range.
Our street in Metuchen is one of the first to get plowed. I shoveled the first 4" or so at 4 am and on one of my measurements around 7 am saw that they had just plowed. I hate letting that stuff sit, as it's often mixed in with salt and partly melts and refreezes solid if it sits when it's cold as it was. So I shoveled out the driveway bottom around 7 am. We have a driveway that slopes down into the street, which I don't always love, but I do love it when shoveling, as gravity helps, lol.
So you were able to get out early? Nice - nothing flying in the area today, at least not this morning...
South Howell off Kent Rd. there's a road called Brown which runs from Kent to Ford Rd. It has about 9 small farms and a Dog training facility on it. There's also farms all over this part of Howell on other roads.
Jesus and have you done the same with every other post on this thread?? That is why I'm calling you out because you are wrong again and calling me out when you accept everyone else's measurements. Look at your posts again that I highlighted. Maps were way off. Your posts had maps with 8in. Any 8in in CC Philly? Not only that your posts with 8in + was after the event started and still wrong!
Again for the 1000th time measurements at the Philly Airport is in Delaware County.
I'm sure records for OC are sketchy at best, but AC's biggest January snowfall ever is 20.3", which means they couldn't have ever had a January with 2 one-foot storms - don't know about Feb, but unlikely. AC is also ahead of Burlington - VT, not NJ - in seasonal snowfall to date. Crazy.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...zzard-warning-as-snowstorm-approaches/1132971
It's not the shear pins.
Key phrase in earlier post: "Stopped engaging"
It's either the drive belt or the PTO clutch.
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