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OT: Potential Significant to Major Winter Storm Saturday, 1/29/22 (but high uncertainty)

Hard to tell how much we have in Belmar from inside given the winds and drifts. Still coming down sideways and in no hurry to get outside until mid-morning when things start settling down a bit. Just glad we have power and heat this morning.
 
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As forecast the shore got hit hard. The worst has past as the heavy bands now solidly off coast.
In Philadelphia you can call it a bust. No where near some of the forecasts even as of late yesterday afternoon. Easy shovel. No boots needed. Will rap up soon here
 
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Did a quick pass with snow shovel on driveway that was cleared at 1 am. Maybe another 3 inches, being generous. It does not feel like a blizzard here in Wall. Not too windy and not snowing heavily. This is some of the fluffiest snow in recent memory. Easy to clear.
Love when I can just use my cordless leaf blower to clear the walkway :)
 
Has anyone been out on the roads? How are they in Central Jersey?
FWIW..Western Central Jersey lol...Haven't been out but I can see NJ Rt. 31 thru my trees. Just saw a plow going south at good speed and an SUV doing the same going north (although doesn't mean a stupid driver). They also ploy the crap out of that highway each time.

As I write that 3 more plows side by side going north with about 10 cars stuck behind them. Traffic is flying out here when not behind a plow lol.
 
Ok, woke up and saw that the radar from about 5 am to 7 am was meh and measured about 5.5" at 7 am (very tough to measure with wind blown snow even in our backyard where usually wind doesn't affect measurements that much), which meant we only got 3/4" over the last 2.5 hours. Looking at the radar now, if those bands east of us can't make it here, there's no way we're going to make it to my 8.25" prediction, which I thought was a lock at 4 am. There was always going to be a sharp NW cutoff and we may be the victim of that. 21F now.

Well, we got some light to moderate snow the past 2 hours and we're now up to 6.25", which is a nice storm, but very likely will fall a bit short of my 8.25" prediction. Part of that is because the NWS predicted 14:1 ratios, so I kind of figured that in, but a spotter in Staten Island reported only a 12:1 ratio - if it had been 14:1, I'd be at 7.3" now. No biggie, just interesting to observe. It's still snowing and the radar looks like we might have another hour or two with a shot at a heavier band as the storm pivots and starts heading ENE. For hours I've been watching heavy bands about 10-15 miles east of me falling apart as they move west, as a guy on-line is reporting 8" in Staten Island and another in Carteret is reporting 7.5", but maybe we'll still get one, as it looks even closer now. Oh well. 20F.
 
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I think i have 5 here in belle mead..at best its averaging half inch an hour here. Maybe we get 1-2 more before its over
wow, didn't think you'd have that much, but you got that nice band this morning - up to 6.25" now, as we had 4.75" at 4:30 am, so that's only 1.5" the past 4.5 hours, as we just haven't had good rates. Have seen reports on the boards of 7.5" in Carteret and 8.0" in Staten Island and 8.0" in Monroe, so more to my east and south as expected. Looks like maybe 1-2 more hours of some chance at more accumulation anywhere along and NW of 95; the snows continue at the shore, though, where they're just getting crushed, with some reports up to 18".
 
Did I hear right- is it possible that Portland Maine could get up to 6 feet of snow?
Forecast for Maine:

images
 
News 12 doing a very good job in covering the storm. Reporters all over the state and 3 mets doing reports. It's all storm coverage with no news like NYC channels.
thanks for the tip. They aren't on FIOS which is really unfortunate but I can stream them, which is surprising. In the past I don't think I could get to it without an optimum login or internet
 
The wind was LOUD most of the night and now so hard to judge looking outside, but I would say roughly five inches so far in Manchester.
 
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thanks for the tip. They aren't on FIOS which is really unfortunate but I can stream them, which is surprising. In the past I don't think I could get to it without an optimum login or internet
News 12 is on Verizon Fios. Regular channel is 529 and the weather/traffic version is 530.
 
Is this it? Massive underperformance by the storm/models. Yikes.
It may have underperformed in Montgomery, but here in Howell by time this is done it's going to pretty much hit Curran's prediction. And I'm none too happy about it.
 
Looks like at least 10-11" so far in Middletown/Belford, and supposed to keep coming down strong until at least 1 p.m. Will take a measurement when I make my way outside to shovel around then.
 
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thanks for the tip. They aren't on FIOS which is really unfortunate but I can stream them, which is surprising. In the past I don't think I could get to it without an optimum login or internet
Watching right now on FIOS. Channel 529
They are live at the Monmouth rest stop.
 
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Was just looking at them. Are you looking on your phone? I have had trouble in the past on my phone vs iPad and laptop.
Weird. Using my IPad and every camera is just showing a black screen.
The internet is fine in our house. Strange
 
getting a pretty good moderate band here currently, its going to diminish from west to east and especially if you are north and west things already tapering down but the rest of us have a few hours to go before it totally wraps.
 
wow, didn't think you'd have that much, but you got that nice band this morning - up to 6.25" now, as we had 4.75" at 4:30 am, so that's only 1.5" the past 4.5 hours, as we just haven't had good rates. Have seen reports on the boards of 7.5" in Carteret and 8.0" in Staten Island and 8.0" in Monroe, so more to my east and south as expected. Looks like maybe 1-2 more hours of some chance at more accumulation anywhere along and NW of 95; the snows continue at the shore, though, where they're just getting crushed, with some reports up to 18".


yeah there might be some drifting effecting my measurements, Rock was measuring 3.5 in hillsborough, i see the guy on americanwx who lives in sourlands mountains had 4.75 so I think my 5 is pretty accurate and we have added a bit to that especially the last 15 minutes and figure to finally finish around 6.

we will see the final tallies but I did good with my 5-8 prediction, i should have included northern somerset in my 3-6 and I should have known better to split the county.

@RU848789 do you know what the site was that i posted a couple years back that gave update snowfall totals in real time, it was not cocorohas, it was a site like a excel grid and took reports from everywhere but it was not a nws site. I didnt bookmark and i would imagine trying to find it in an old weather thread is like finding a needle in a haystack
 
It picked up between 3 and 8 a.m. in Wall/Manasquan. Probably 8-10", maybe 12", hard to tell with all the drifting and blowing. Nice part is the snow is light and fluffy, and the snowblower (which worked for 2 hours @e5fdny !) cut right through the plow drifts at the end of the driveway. Made the town plow guy a hot cup of coffee, and he took care of me on the next couple of passes.

Bonus, the stupid dog next door will not be out for a couple of days. Things have quieted down after the debacle Thursday night. Guy never called me to fix his snowblower. His loss. I would have fixed it.
 
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I think i have 5 here in belle mead..at best its averaging half inch an hour here. Maybe we get 1-2 more before its over
If even - it blew around so hard to measure, but I see between 4-5”. Comes right off down to pavement with the snowblower and plows as well; so roads are fine.

All-in-all, a relatively minor snowstorm in Belle Mead (we had more and harder to clean snow a few weeks ago). Also appears to be under what NWS had predicted before this started (what they update after it starts doesn’t count).

This one was a coastal thing for sure which is fine with me.
 
I'd say 6-7" here in the Cherry Hill/Evesham Township area, just east of 295/NJ Turnpike. It's still coming down pretty hard here so we could likely hit the bottom range of the NWS forecast that was 8-12 inches.
 
If even - it blew around so hard to measure, but I see between 4-5”. Comes right off down to pavement with the snowblower and plows as well; so roads are fine.

All-in-all, a relatively minor snowstorm in Belle Mead (we had more and harder to clean snow a few weeks ago). Also appears to be under what NWS had predicted before this started (what they update after it starts doesn’t count).

This one was a coastal thing for sure which is fine with me.


i thought they went a bit high for our area including us in the 5-11 now 12 grouping, I think a 4-8 probably was the realistic forecast they should have put out for somerset and maybe 3-6 to cover bases for Hunterdon and northern somerset. Still getting some so 6 inches is in reach for us. I see cocohoros has 4.8 around this area with 3.5 in Bridgewater
 
It's not in the boro. A snow mist at best.
Thanks
As forecast the shore got hit hard. The worst has past as the heavy bands now solidly off coast.
In Philadelphia you can call it a bust. No where near some of the forecasts even as of late yesterday afternoon. Easy shovel. No boots needed. Will rap up soon here
Definitely not a bust in the Philadelphia suburbs. Not even close. In my town of Devon, PA, we’re already above 6 inches and it’s still coming down nearly as hard now as it was at 7 AM this morning.
 
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