OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8
- Thread starter RU848789
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What is totally hilarious about predicting storms in 2018 is this . Even with all the scientific advances at their disposal these fools don’t have a clue of accurately seeing what is coming until it arrives. Bring back Tex Antoine, Frank Fields ( Sr. & Jr.) hell I’ll take Lloyd Lindsey Young.When it arrives we’ll know.
Hellllllloooooooooooooo Hoboken. Temps at 2 dozen cousin. Humididity at 100%
Hellooooo Piscataway!!!!!
He signed off from Bakersfield, Ca in 2008:
Guessing #'s is not a fan. Lloyd hated winter:
That's just silly. I think models play a significant role in helping people plan ahead and err on the side of caution.
I met Lloyd on July 7,1984 without ever leaving home.My neighbor at the time was the Harrison weather forecaster.He talked Lloyd into doing a remote broadcast from his backyard.
That's LLY, saying "Bug Out" in the Beastie Boys' song at 1:11:
The Beasties were big fans. At 10:42, that's him again from Paul's Boutique:
I think this is the best call ATM....surprised Mt Holly went so bullish with 10-14 for Somerset County although that does not jive with their snow map that has 8-12 in the county
Major snowstorm coming, folks. Pretty decent guess on what the NWS-Philly would do, as they've now issued watches for 3-6", in general, but up to 12" in spots (the NW sections of this swath, like Metuchen and NB), for all of the I-95 corridor counties from Middlesex down through Philly and Wilmington, including all the PA/NJ counties on each side of the Delaware, as well as Monmouth County.
The watches for the counties NW of there from Western Mongomery/Bucks through the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos and including Hunterdon, Somerset and Morris are for 10-14" of snow, since no rain is expected in these counties. For SE NJ (Ocean/Atlantic/Cape May/Salem/SE Burlington), a few inches will still likely fall, despite getting more rain than snow so I'd still expect advisories tomorrow.
For the NWS-NYC, watches are up for a general 5-10" of snow for NYC, Union, Essex, Hudson and CT and for 8-12" for Passaic, Bergen, and the Hudson Valley and for 4-7" for LI.
Snow will start in the wee hours on Wednesday, but won't get heavy until late morning through the mid-evening for most locations and 1-2" per hour rates are possible. The morning commute will likely not be terrible, but the evening commute will likely be horrendous. There's still a chance this can get much wetter along 95 if the track shifts 25-50 miles west and much snowier for 95 and the coast if it shifts 25-50 miles east, but a miss is off the table. Just look at how steep the gradient is to see that: from 2" in Toms River to 7" in Freehold to 9" in NB to 12" in Morristown - that's 2" to 12" over 60 miles, which is why a 25-50 mile track shift (within model error) would change the outcome so much.
There will also likely be some power outages with heavy wet snow and moderate to even high winds (not like Friday, though) and some minor coastal flooding (much less than Friday). This is a high impact storm folks.
Yep, more mixing along 95 for the GFS, which is why people can't be certain of the outcome yet. On the other hand, the 18Z NAM shifted the axis of heaviest snow SE about 25 miles, such that I-95 is all snow (10-16") and even the coast gets 4-8" north of Toms River.GFS is a bit less amped that the other models with its snowmap..note its 10-1 not Kuchera
You're simply way wrong on this. Forecasts today are as accurate at 5 days as they used to be at 3 days 20 years ago and snowstorm forecasts are far more accurate, on average, than they used to be. Sure there are still misses, but they're much less frequent. However, if you simply don't want to know what might happen with the weather, don't watch or read threads like this.
Sorry, disliked LLY, partly because I grew up with Jim O'Brien on Channel 6 in Philly and partly because by the time I came up here and was an adult at RU (kind of, lol), I just didn't like his schtick. O'Brien was folksy, but still serious about the weather.
Agree - would've gone with 8-12" for areas NW of 95 and 5-10" for the 95 corridor, where some mixing is likely. Of course, if no mixing, it's 8-12" everywhere.
Back in the 70's we didn't have all this media. We had 2 4 7 9 11 21 for news. WCTC WBRW for on the radio. I remember maybe 1 day ahead you would hear of a storm approaching. And some days you just woke up and looked out the window and it was snowing.
Quinn actually formed before Riley and meandered slowly over the Sierras/western Rockies for a couple of days, while Riley pounded us; took Quinn a couple more days to then move into the midwest and now it's poised to hit us on Wednesday.
Maybe I could name them better, but I actually hate the naming of storms by a private weather service - it's just tacky in my opinion. I still like thinking of them by their dates: Feb 83, March 93, Jan 96, PD 1 (79) and PD2 (2003), Feb 2010, Jan 2016, etc.
I am hoping this storm busts. There is potential for a bust. This is the time of the season where busts are prevalent.
Back in the day in the mid 70's when I was like 16 and Bac was 9 we used to listen to our weather band radio. NOAA weather service. It was a loop of a guy with a serious lisp problem. I can still remember his discussion.....This is NOAA wadio opawating on 155 kilohutz(or something like that) Tonight will be fweezing wain and fweezing dwizzle.
There absolutely is bust potential here for the coast and I-95, although with strong model consensus, that potential is low, but certainly not zero; however for areas N/W of 95, it's pretty close to zero.
Same here - that and KYW 1060 in Philly, which had the "new" AccuWeather guys on staff making their forecasts, who were ahead of their time and were significantly better, at the time than the folks on any other TV/radio stations (Jim O'Brien the weather guy - not a met, but a bright guy - gave their forecasts on Channel 6 in Philly). In addition to keeping weather records as a kid, I also used to log what KYW 1060 predicted vs. what occurred.
That's not a lisp. A lisp has to do with inability to pronounce an "s" and pronouncing a "th. instead." What your guy had was an "r" problem, which is still all too common. I have colleagues with "r" problems and I wonder why they never went to a speech therapist to have it corrected -- or, should I say, "cowwected." I remember Barbara Walters having an "r" problem; she couldn't pronounce her own first name.
Sounds like something Bac did back then. Probably was doing his own forcast under the blanket at night.
When they say north and west of 95 where are they talking about? Doesn’t 95 run north and south? How can you be north of 95?
You ain't kidding. One early AM in 1979 (not the 3rd week in February storm where we had 22-24 inches?-was at the Daytona 500) my dad woke me up before my alarm for school and told me I had to help hiom shovel(he was a Pharmacist). I had bitched and told him how bad could it be as we had no snow in the forecast and I had gone to bed earliest for high school at 11:30PM (I had an honors history teacher who though he was at Harvard-4-6 hours of homework a night).
Put my sweats on, walked outside and the snow was up to my upper legs/groin...with none forcasted.
Remember WBRW (I lived in Bridgewater) and Lloyd Lindsay Young on News 12.
I remember I used to joke with people that 30 seconds before Lloyd did his newscast he'd be sleeplike when his staff would bring him a plate of Coke-"HEEELLLO New Jersey!!!!!"
95 runs generally SW to NE from DC to Boston, so north and west of 95 is perpendicular to 95 towards the NW and south and east of 95 is perpendicular to 95 and towards the SE or the coast. Obviously, the 95 corridor is important as it's home to 27 billion people who panic at a few snowflakes. More seriously, there are two other factors that make 95 an important dividing line, very often, in snow/rain situations.
First, the east coast generally runs SW to NE, parallel to 95, meaning the 95 corridor is usually not too far from the coast, which is important meteorologically since the ocean provides both moisture and warmth, and second, for much of its length from DC to Boston, areas to the NW of 95 increase fairly quickly in elevation from <50 feet along and SE of 95 to several hundred feet NW of 95.
So when winter storms ride SW to NE from just off the NC/VA coast where they often form, to the "benchmark" at 40N/70W (roughly south of Nantucket and east of Philly), which happens quite often, the warm air from the ocean sometimes overwhelms the cold air aloft and/or at the surface from the coast to about 95, allowing a changeover from snow to sleet or rain, but areas NW of 95 are both further away from the ocean and at greater elevation, so that warm air often doesn't make it that far inland and those areas stay snow. Of course, the snow/rain line isn't always along 95 but it very often is oriented SW to NE in parallel to 95 and the coast. Hope that helps explain why mets so often refer to the 95 corridor.
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