OT: Probable Wintry Mix to Rain for Most on 2/24-25 (but more wintry N/W)

RU848789

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Just a heads up that we will have a winter storm coming through the area late Thursday night through Friday morning - this looks like a classic SWFE (southwest flow event) with a low approaching from the Ohio Valley bringing in moist warm air from our SW which will overrun cold air at the surface, producing snow at first, but then likely changing to sleet, then freezing rain, then plain rain for most, but since the primary low will likely transfer its energy to a coastal low, it won't get very warm like it does when a storm goes inland to our west.

So it looks like some snow/sleet to start along and north of 276/195, but probably changing to freezing rain (hopefully briefly) and then all rain (1-1.5" of total precip is likely) after a small accumulation from that line up to about 78 (with more near 78 than near 195, of course), while along and N of 78, there could be prolonged sleet and maybe some freezing rain, while N of 80 there could be several inches of snow/sleet and then some ice and maybe rain. Areas south of 276/195 and along the coast are likely to see almost all rain, unless the track of the storm ends up further south (possible); it's also possible the storm takes a more northerly track, leading to frozen precip perhaps being only along and north of 80. Like any mixed precip event, the uncertainty is off the charts this far out. This brings and end to the recent warm pattern...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1255 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Thursday into Friday is when we expect the next system to affect the
region and confidence is growing there will be wintry precipitation
affecting at least parts of the area. In the big picture, the
forecast models are actually in fairly good overall agreement in the
idea of taking a primary low pressure system through the
Tennessee Valley north and east into western PA by Friday
morning with a secondary low developing off the coast. Meanwhile
arctic high pressure will remain banked to our north. This set
up is a favorable set up for all precip types to be in play as
warmer air moves in aloft while cold air damming keeps colder
air banked in near the surface. Given that this is still a few
days out and that minor differences in the temperatures both at
the surface and aloft could have a big affect on P-types there
remains uncertainty in the specific details of the forecast.
That said, latest indications are for an initial wave to try to
move in during the day Thursday affecting mainly the southern
half of the area (SE PA, southern NJ, Delmarva) with the threat
of some light precip. Temperatures will be mostly in the 30s
with a warm layer also aloft but colder air in a layer in
between so precip types look to be a mix of rain, sleet, and
snow. Any snow/ice accumulation through the day though should be
little to none though.

Heavier precipitation moves in Thursday evening lasting through the
overnight into Friday morning as the main system advances
north/east. Expect over much of Delmarva and southern NJ (especially
near the coast) that the precip will be mainly rain with a messy mix
farther north due to the warmer air aloft but colder air holding
tight in the low levels. Basically, near and north of the I-95
corridor over SE PA and Delmarva and near/north of I-195 in NJ
expect the potential for sleet and freezing rain mixed with snow.
This may not last too long near the southern periphery of this zone
but could be a more extended period of sleet and freezing rain
farther north towards the I-78 and I-80 corridors as the setup up is
pretty classic cold air damming. Low temperatures in these northern
areas will be mostly in the upper 20s to low 30s with mid 30s
farther south.

By Friday, the center of this complex system should make its closest
pass to the area in the morning with the secondary low taking over
and pulling away to the northeast by the afternoon. As such, expect
rain to continue into the morning for southern and central areas
(roughly south of I-78) with a wintry mix likely persisting farther
north. Precip winds down into the afternoon with winds shifting to
westerly and becoming gusty. In terms of expected totals of snow and
ice, it`s still a bit early to be confident on any numbers but it
does look at this point like the best chance for significant
snowfall should stay mostly just north of the area. However for
areas roughly near/north of I-78 at least some snow accumulation
looks to be possible along with the potential for a layer of ice
accretion. These details will continue to be refined over the next
couple days. There will be quite a variance in high temps for Friday
with highs near 60 over southern Delmarva where they will be into
the warm sector with 40s over SE PA into central NJ and only in the
30s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

For Saturday and Sunday...In the wake of the aformentioned storm,
cold high pressure builds in for Saturday with dry but chilly
conditions (highs mostly in the 30s) before the next trough starts
to dig into the eastern US by later Sunday. There could be a coastal
low that develops in association with this feature by later Sunday
into Sunday night but confidence on this is quite low at the current
time. By Monday, cold and blustery but mainly dry conditions build
in.
 
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RU848789

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Metuchen, NJ
Like any mixed precip event, the uncertainty is off the charts this far out. This is the kind of system where the forecast error on precip type could be substantial even up to the event’s start and “nowcasting” (watching the radar and looking out the window) will be especially important. This brings an end to the recent warm pattern, by the way, and early March is looking a bit colder and drier than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
 

Knight Shift

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May 19, 2011
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Like any mixed precip event, the uncertainty is off the charts this far out. This is the kind of system where the forecast error on precip type could be substantial even up to the event’s start and “nowcasting” (watching the radar and looking out the window) will be especially important. This brings an end to the recent warm pattern, by the way, and early March is looking a bit colder and drier than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
Despite the uncertainty, I am asking you for hourly udpates. We have an 8:30 a.m. flight out of Newark on Friday to sunny Arizona. We want out of NJ, especially seeing that next weekend-Monday, highs are predicted to be in the 30s in NJ.
 
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RU848789

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Metuchen, NJ
Despite the uncertainty, I am asking you for hourly udpates. We have an 8:30 a.m. flight out of Newark on Friday to sunny Arizona. We want out of NJ, especially seeing that next weekend-Monday, highs are predicted to be in the 30s in NJ.
Odds are that it will likely be in the mid-30s and raining by sunrise on Friday in Newark, as per the NWS forecast below, but there are models showing sleet/freezing rain in the Newark area until 7-8 am, so it's worth keeping an eye on this.

Plotter.php
 
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knightfan7

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It's not the cold or snow that seems out of place to me over the past year or two, it's the crazy winds.

It seems more than I can ever remember in the nearly 30 years I've been down here 25+ has become the norm with hitting the rare 50 mark has become at least a bi-monthly event even in the Spring and Fall.

Is there a site that tracks that #s? I'd really like to see if that's confirmed or if it's just because I'm just noticing it more.
 

Zak57

All American
Jul 5, 2011
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It's not the cold or snow that seems out of place to me over the past year or two, it's the crazy winds.

It seems more than I can ever remember in the nearly 30 years I've been down here 25+ has become the norm with hitting the rare 50 mark has become at least a bi-monthly event even in the Spring and Fall.

Is there a site that tracks that #s? I'd really like to see if that's confirmed or if it's just because I'm just noticing it more.
I've been saying for about 5 years now average wind speeds all over NJ have to be higher than ever. Never remember so many windy days throughout the year.
 

RUPete

Hall of Famer
Feb 5, 2003
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It's not the cold or snow that seems out of place to me over the past year or two, it's the crazy winds.

It seems more than I can ever remember in the nearly 30 years I've been down here 25+ has become the norm with hitting the rare 50 mark has become at least a bi-monthly event even in the Spring and Fall.

Is there a site that tracks that #s? I'd really like to see if that's confirmed or if it's just because I'm just noticing it more.
March last year was nuts one day. Lost about four sections of stockade fence that day. Basic explanation received on this board about the reason for crazy winds in March: competing airmasses.
 

RUPete

Hall of Famer
Feb 5, 2003
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Like any mixed precip event, the uncertainty is off the charts this far out. This is the kind of system where the forecast error on precip type could be substantial even up to the event’s start and “nowcasting” (watching the radar and looking out the window) will be especially important. This brings an end to the recent warm pattern, by the way, and early March is looking a bit colder and drier than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
Cold is fine paired with dry.
 

fatsam98

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Despite the uncertainty, I am asking you for hourly udpates. We have an 8:30 a.m. flight out of Newark on Friday to sunny Arizona. We want out of NJ, especially seeing that next weekend-Monday, highs are predicted to be in the 30s in NJ.
My wife had a 6:30am flight out of EWR Friday, changed it to a Thursday evening flight instead. Getting to the airport Friday early morning probably won't be fun
 

Knight Shift

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My wife had a 6:30am flight out of EWR Friday, changed it to a Thursday evening flight instead. Getting to the airport Friday early morning probably won't be fun
Any idea what it is like at the airport this week? Heard people are scheduling "revenge travel" now that things are getting better. We always plan to arrive at the gate 2 hours ahead of takeoff.
 
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fatsam98

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Mar 23, 2005
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Any idea what it is like at the airport this week. Heard people are scheduling "revenge travel" now that things are getting better. We always plan to arrive at the gate 2 hours ahead of takeoff.
I'm sure you'll be fine haha. But thankfully things are definitely getting back to normal
 

Jm0513

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Aug 16, 2018
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Any idea what it is like at the airport this week. Heard people are scheduling "revenge travel" now that things are getting better. We always plan to arrive at the gate 2 hours ahead of takeoff.
Many districts have their winter break so the last few days have been bonkers.
My cousin was delayed 5hrs Monday heading to Florida. Not sure why
Anyway… enjoy the time away!
 
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Section124

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Dec 21, 2002
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It's not the cold or snow that seems out of place to me over the past year or two, it's the crazy winds.

It seems more than I can ever remember in the nearly 30 years I've been down here 25+ has become the norm with hitting the rare 50 mark has become at least a bi-monthly event even in the Spring and Fall.

Is there a site that tracks that #s? I'd really like to see if that's confirmed or if it's just because I'm just noticing it more.
Good point on the wind. Plus it always seems like it's windy almost every Thursday night/Friday AM. I only know this because Friday is recycling day in my town and I am tired of picking up my neighbors cans/bottles/cardboard from my property.
 

knightfan7

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Good point on the wind. Plus it always seems like it's windy almost every Thursday night/Friday AM. I only know this because Friday is recycling day in my town and I am tired of picking up my neighbors cans/bottles/cardboard from my property.
That's a real PITA, right?. It's probably worse down here because people leave it out and head home Sunday leaving it to us full timers to clean up after them.
 
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Tango Two

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NWS:

"Here's a quick update on the wintry mix anticipated late Thursday through early Friday. Confidence is low on the exact amounts, but the icy mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow may impact the Friday morning commute from the I-95 urban corridor and especially areas to the north and west."



274317394_327123162773788_2043761867242685706_n.jpg
 

Tango Two

Moderator
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Aug 21, 2001
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North Brunswick, New Jersey
NWS:

"This map is a graphical display from our National Blend of Models depicting the probability of measurable ice accretion over the 24 hour period from 1 PM Thursday to 1 PM Friday. As you can see, highest threat is over eastern PA and northern New Jersey, especially along and north of the I-78 corridor. However the threat does exist at least as far south as Philadelphia and adjacent portions of southern New Jersey. "


274529715_326945296124908_7966944385671797319_n.jpg
 

1984

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Aug 9, 2001
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Like any mixed precip event, the uncertainty is off the charts this far out. This is the kind of system where the forecast error on precip type could be substantial even up to the event’s start and “nowcasting” (watching the radar and looking out the window) will be especially important. This brings an end to the recent warm pattern, by the way, and early March is looking a bit colder and drier than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
hey #'s ..quick question. Planning to come back from Myrtle Beach area leaving Thursday by arriving North of Trenton Friday afternoon. Daughter driving up from Hammonton Friday PM to meet us for her Birthday. That drive home last couple of hours gonna suck? Can push back a day.
 

RU848789

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hey #'s ..quick question. Planning to come back from Myrtle Beach area leaving Thursday by arriving North of Trenton Friday afternoon. Daughter driving up from Hammonton Friday PM to meet us for her Birthday. That drive home last couple of hours gonna suck? Can push back a day.
Precip should mostly be over for the area by early afternoon (just some light showers by then) and temps south of 78 will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s by about late morning, so there shouldn't be any frozen precip issues for any of you, even though there might be significant sleet/freezing rain before sunrise. And by late afternoon Friday the rain should be done, so y'all should be fine.
 

1984

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Precip should mostly be over for the area by early afternoon (just some light showers by then) and temps south of 78 will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s by about late morning, so there shouldn't be any frozen precip issues for any of you, even though there might be significant sleet/freezing rain before sunrise. And by late afternoon Friday the rain should be done, so y'all should be fine.
Thanks very much for your input. My other kid would be coming down from Bethlehem pa area.. sounds good. I like to drive in crap but as a dad don't want to imagine my kids doing so.
 

RU848789

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Metuchen, NJ
Thanks very much for your input. My other kid would be coming down from Bethlehem pa area.. sounds good. I like to drive in crap but as a dad don't want to imagine my kids doing so.
No problem...but you don't want to drive if there's freezing rain, at least on untreated roads. Bethlehem will be somewhat worse than NB or Trenton, but even there, things should be ok by late morning.
 

1984

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No problem...but you don't want to drive if there's freezing rain, at least on untreated roads. Bethlehem will be somewhat worse than NB or Trenton, but even there, things should be ok by late morning.
Ha. More worried about the dopes on 95 between DMB and Philly.
 
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RU848789

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Metuchen, NJ
Just a heads up that we will have a winter storm coming through the area late Thursday night through Friday morning - this looks like a classic SWFE (southwest flow event) with a low approaching from the Ohio Valley bringing in moist warm air from our SW which will overrun cold air at the surface, producing snow at first, but then likely changing to sleet, then freezing rain, then plain rain for most, but since the primary low will likely transfer its energy to a coastal low, it won't get very warm like it does when a storm goes inland to our west.

So it looks like some snow/sleet to start along and north of 276/195, but probably changing to freezing rain (hopefully briefly) and then all rain (1-1.5" of total precip is likely) after a small accumulation from that line up to about 78 (with more near 78 than near 195, of course), while along and N of 78, there could be prolonged sleet and maybe some freezing rain, while N of 80 there could be several inches of snow/sleet and then some ice and maybe rain. Areas south of 276/195 and along the coast are likely to see almost all rain, unless the track of the storm ends up further south (possible); it's also possible the storm takes a more northerly track, leading to frozen precip perhaps being only along and north of 80. Like any mixed precip event, the uncertainty is off the charts this far out. This brings and end to the recent warm pattern...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1255 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Thursday into Friday is when we expect the next system to affect the
region and confidence is growing there will be wintry precipitation
affecting at least parts of the area. In the big picture, the
forecast models are actually in fairly good overall agreement in the
idea of taking a primary low pressure system through the
Tennessee Valley north and east into western PA by Friday
morning with a secondary low developing off the coast. Meanwhile
arctic high pressure will remain banked to our north. This set
up is a favorable set up for all precip types to be in play as
warmer air moves in aloft while cold air damming keeps colder
air banked in near the surface. Given that this is still a few
days out and that minor differences in the temperatures both at
the surface and aloft could have a big affect on P-types there
remains uncertainty in the specific details of the forecast.
That said, latest indications are for an initial wave to try to
move in during the day Thursday affecting mainly the southern
half of the area (SE PA, southern NJ, Delmarva) with the threat
of some light precip. Temperatures will be mostly in the 30s
with a warm layer also aloft but colder air in a layer in
between so precip types look to be a mix of rain, sleet, and
snow. Any snow/ice accumulation through the day though should be
little to none though.

Heavier precipitation moves in Thursday evening lasting through the
overnight into Friday morning as the main system advances
north/east. Expect over much of Delmarva and southern NJ (especially
near the coast) that the precip will be mainly rain with a messy mix
farther north due to the warmer air aloft but colder air holding
tight in the low levels. Basically, near and north of the I-95
corridor over SE PA and Delmarva and near/north of I-195 in NJ
expect the potential for sleet and freezing rain mixed with snow.
This may not last too long near the southern periphery of this zone
but could be a more extended period of sleet and freezing rain
farther north towards the I-78 and I-80 corridors as the setup up is
pretty classic cold air damming. Low temperatures in these northern
areas will be mostly in the upper 20s to low 30s with mid 30s
farther south.

By Friday, the center of this complex system should make its closest
pass to the area in the morning with the secondary low taking over
and pulling away to the northeast by the afternoon. As such, expect
rain to continue into the morning for southern and central areas
(roughly south of I-78) with a wintry mix likely persisting farther
north. Precip winds down into the afternoon with winds shifting to
westerly and becoming gusty. In terms of expected totals of snow and
ice, it`s still a bit early to be confident on any numbers but it
does look at this point like the best chance for significant
snowfall should stay mostly just north of the area. However for
areas roughly near/north of I-78 at least some snow accumulation
looks to be possible along with the potential for a layer of ice
accretion. These details will continue to be refined over the next
couple days. There will be quite a variance in high temps for Friday
with highs near 60 over southern Delmarva where they will be into
the warm sector with 40s over SE PA into central NJ and only in the
30s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

For Saturday and Sunday...In the wake of the aformentioned storm,
cold high pressure builds in for Saturday with dry but chilly
conditions (highs mostly in the 30s) before the next trough starts
to dig into the eastern US by later Sunday. There could be a coastal
low that develops in association with this feature by later Sunday
into Sunday night but confidence on this is quite low at the current
time. By Monday, cold and blustery but mainly dry conditions build
in.
All of the global models (GFS/CMC/UK/Euro) and the mesoscale models (NAM/RDPS) trended more wintry with tonight's 0Z runs, with most of them showing an inch or two of front end snow for areas north of the Raritan/202 (including NYC/NENJ/LI and northern CNJ), followed by several hours of sleet, which could put down a couple of inches of sleet by sunrise (2" of sleet is the same frozen mass at 6" of snow). And Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or so for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of freezing rain and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F.

If that were to verify, Friday morning's commute could be a real mess, as most of the models don't show temps going above 32F until 7-8 am for places like from New Hope to Staten Island and N of there, and a couple of models are even showing at least an inch of sleet down to a line from Philly to Belmar. Several models are also showing significant amounts of freezing rain (0.1" or more) before temps go above 32F for much of the area. Not going to bother posting the NWS maps, since they're going to change in just a couple of hours, plus we're still about 48 hours from the start of the main event.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...r-storm/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-6424277
 
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Knight Shift

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All of the global models (GFS/CMC/UK/Euro) and the mesoscale models (NAM/RDPS) trended more wintry with tonight's 0Z runs, with most of them showing an inch or two of front end snow for areas north of the Raritan/202 (including NYC/NENJ/LI and northern CNJ), followed by several hours of sleet, which could put down a couple of inches of sleet by sunrise (2" of sleet is the same frozen mass at 6" of snow). And Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or so for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of freezing rain and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F.

If that were to verify, Friday morning's commute could be a real mess, as most of the models don't show temps going above 32F until 7-8 am for places like from New Hope to Staten Island and N of there, and a couple of models are even showing at least an inch of sleet down to a line from Philly to Belmar. Several models are also showing significant amounts of freezing rain (0.1" or more) before temps go above 32F for much of the area. Not going to bother posting the NWS maps, since they're going to change in just a couple of hours, plus we're still about 48 hours from the start of the main event.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...r-storm/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-6424277
Just got my warning from United. I have two options- leave on Thursday evening, or later Friday:

Plotter.php


Cannot post the image link for Friday, but things seem to clear up later in the day. Here's the conundrum, the forecast for Sedona:

Plotter.php


Temps will be in the 60s by Sunday and Monday. Don't think I want to be in Sedona on Thursday. Snow removal is terrible due to the infrequent snowstorms there. Looks like moving my trip out to leave Newark Friday afternoon is the best way to go?
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
All of the global models (GFS/CMC/UK/Euro) and the mesoscale models (NAM/RDPS) trended more wintry with tonight's 0Z runs, with most of them showing an inch or two of front end snow for areas north of the Raritan/202 (including NYC/NENJ/LI and northern CNJ), followed by several hours of sleet, which could put down a couple of inches of sleet by sunrise (2" of sleet is the same frozen mass at 6" of snow). And Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or so for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of freezing rain and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F.

If that were to verify, Friday morning's commute could be a real mess, as most of the models don't show temps going above 32F until 7-8 am for places like from New Hope to Staten Island and N of there, and a couple of models are even showing at least an inch of sleet down to a line from Philly to Belmar. Several models are also showing significant amounts of freezing rain (0.1" or more) before temps go above 32F for much of the area. Not going to bother posting the NWS maps, since they're going to change in just a couple of hours, plus we're still about 48 hours from the start of the main event.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...r-storm/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-6424277

As expected, the NWS responded to the colder and more wintry 0Z model suite by increasing snow/sleet amounts for everyone and extending the southern extent of wintry precip. In addition, the NWS-Philly issued winter storm watches for Carbon/Monroe/Northampton (Poconos in NEPA) and Sussex/Warren and the NWS-NYC issued watches for NW Passaic/NW Bergen and the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee - for these areas, 3-6" of snow/sleet and up to 0.2" of freezing rain are expected through Friday morning and these areas might not ever change over to plain rain.

The forecast further south is incredibly complex and uncertain. No watches, but the forecast discussions said advisories would likely be needed (these are issued closer to an event than watches) for much of the rest of the area for some combo of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Looking at the NWS maps, this would likely be for 2-4" of sleet/snow (note that 2" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 6" of snow) and 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain for areas between about 80 and 78 and for 1" to maybe 2" of sleet/snow (mostly sleet and 1" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 3" of snow) and up to 0.1" of freezing rain for areas between 276/195 and 78 (obviously the high end of those amounts it towards 78 and the low end towards 276/195, where there may be <1" of mostly sleet and a bit of freezing rain. And given freezing rain predictions of a few hundredths of an inch for SEPA and much of SNJ (except the coast), advisories for that would likely be issued.

Having said all that, the 6Z models, which just came out, largely bumped back north a bit which would mean more sleet than snow for most and probably an earlier changeover to plain rain up to 78, but this also increases the risk for an extended period of freezing rain, which would be bad (some models are showing 1/4-1/2" of ice accretion for much of CNJ and SEPA just NW of 95. Needless to say, the impacts on the Friday morning commute could be substantial even as far south as the Raritan/202 with temps not getting above 32F until 7-9 am.

Note that the forecast is very complex and subject to large uncertainty, meaning actual outcomes could still be significantly different from what the NWS and others are predicting, below (colder or warmer), so my guess is this won't be well nailed down until tomorrow afternoon and we might even see suprises in real time. The complexity is driven by the fact that most models are showing a pronounced warm nose aloft (a few thousand feet up) in conjunction with strong CAD (cold air damming) near the surface, given the very strong cold high pressure we'll have to our north - this combo is why significant amounts of sleet and some freezing rain are likely for most (with significant plain snow likely limited to areas N of 80).

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2094-224-226-high-impact-east-coast-winter-storm/page/6/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56854-february-2425-potential-winter-storm/page/18/

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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Knight Shift

Legend
May 19, 2011
63,854
57,344
113
Jersey Shore
As expected, the NWS responded to the colder and more wintry 0Z model suite by increasing snow/sleet amounts for everyone and extending the southern extent of wintry precip. In addition, the NWS-Philly issued winter storm watches for Carbon/Monroe/Northampton (Poconos in NEPA) and Sussex/Warren and the NWS-NYC issued watches for NW Passaic/NW Bergen and the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee - for these areas, 3-6" of snow/sleet and up to 0.2" of freezing rain are expected through Friday morning and these areas might not ever change over to plain rain.

The forecast further south is incredibly complex and uncertain. No watches, but the forecast discussions said advisories would likely be needed (these are issued closer to an event than watches) for much of the rest of the area for some combo of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Looking at the NWS maps, this would likely be for 2-4" of sleet/snow (note that 2" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 6" of snow) and 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain for areas between about 80 and 78 and for 1" to maybe 2" of sleet/snow (mostly sleet and 1" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 3" of snow) and up to 0.1" of freezing rain for areas between 276/195 and 78 (obviously the high end of those amounts it towards 78 and the low end towards 276/195, where there may be <1" of mostly sleet and a bit of freezing rain. And given freezing rain predictions of a few hundredths of an inch for SEPA and much of SNJ (except the coast), advisories for that would likely be issued.

Having said all that, the 6Z models, which just came out, largely bumped back north a bit which would mean more sleet than snow for most and probably an earlier changeover to plain rain up to 78, but this also increases the risk for an extended period of freezing rain, which would be bad (some models are showing 1/4-1/2" of ice accretion for much of CNJ and SEPA just NW of 95. Needless to say, the impacts on the Friday morning commute could be substantial even as far south as the Raritan/202 with temps not getting above 32F until 7-9 am.

Note that the forecast is very complex and subject to large uncertainty, meaning actual outcomes could still be significantly different from what the NWS and others are predicting, below (colder or warmer), so my guess is this won't be well nailed down until tomorrow afternoon and we might even see suprises in real time. The complexity is driven by the fact that most models are showing a pronounced warm nose aloft (a few thousand feet up) in conjunction with strong CAD (cold air damming) near the surface, given the very strong cold high pressure we'll have to our north - this combo is why significant amounts of sleet and some freezing rain are likely for most (with significant plain snow likely limited to areas N of 80).

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2094-224-226-high-impact-east-coast-winter-storm/page/6/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56854-february-2425-potential-winter-storm/page/18/

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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My prediction: significant chance of sniping, baiting and complaining about lack of accurate prediction and busts.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
Just got my warning from United. I have two options- leave on Thursday evening, or later Friday:

Plotter.php


Cannot post the image link for Friday, but things seem to clear up later in the day. Here's the conundrum, the forecast for Sedona:

Plotter.php


Temps will be in the 60s by Sunday and Monday. Don't think I want to be in Sedona on Thursday. Snow removal is terrible due to the infrequent snowstorms there. Looks like moving my trip out to leave Newark Friday afternoon is the best way to go?

To get the images for beyond 48 hours, you have to select the start time from the drop down menu for the hourly graphic - should then be able to cut/paste them. Below is Newark. Given you want to avoid snow/cold, Friday afternoon would be the way to go, as temps in Newark don't go above 32F until mid-morning, according to the latest NWS forecast, and by late Friday or Saturday, I'm guessing that Sedona snow will be gone with temps near 50F each day.

Plotter.php
 
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RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
Totally. But I don't know when Morris would get a full changeover to rain.
Even in the latest 12Z NAM, which is warmer than earlier runs, Morristown doesn't change over to rain until 10 am or so and Edison doesn't until about 6-7 am and if there's a couple of inches of sleet on the ground when it changes to rain, that sleet isn't going anywhere for a few hours (remember 2" of sleet is like 6" of snow).
 

Morrischiano

All Conference
Dec 3, 2019
4,201
5,660
113
Even in the latest 12Z NAM, which is warmer than earlier runs, Morristown doesn't change over to rain until 10 am or so and Edison doesn't until about 6-7 am and if there's a couple of inches of sleet on the ground when it changes to rain, that sleet isn't going anywhere for a few hours (remember 2" of sleet is like 6" of snow).
Yikes, so probably a snowday.
 

Knight Shift

Legend
May 19, 2011
63,854
57,344
113
Jersey Shore
To get the images for beyond 48 hours, you have to select the start time from the drop down menu for the hourly graphic - should then be able to cut/paste them. Below is Newark. Given you want to avoid snow/cold, Friday afternoon would be the way to go, as temps in Newark don't go above 32F until mid-morning, according to the latest NWS forecast, and by late Friday or Saturday, I'm guessing that Sedona snow will be gone with temps near 50F each day.

Plotter.php
Thanks for theh tip. We will shift our flight out to 5:00 p.m. to avoid any uncertainty. That's why I am kNight Shift! 🙄

The change should put us in the clear.
 
Last edited:
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RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
As expected, the NWS responded to the colder and more wintry 0Z model suite by increasing snow/sleet amounts for everyone and extending the southern extent of wintry precip. In addition, the NWS-Philly issued winter storm watches for Carbon/Monroe/Northampton (Poconos in NEPA) and Sussex/Warren and the NWS-NYC issued watches for NW Passaic/NW Bergen and the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee - for these areas, 3-6" of snow/sleet and up to 0.2" of freezing rain are expected through Friday morning and these areas might not ever change over to plain rain.

The forecast further south is incredibly complex and uncertain. No watches, but the forecast discussions said advisories would likely be needed (these are issued closer to an event than watches) for much of the rest of the area for some combo of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Looking at the NWS maps, this would likely be for 2-4" of sleet/snow (note that 2" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 6" of snow) and 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain for areas between about 80 and 78 and for 1" to maybe 2" of sleet/snow (mostly sleet and 1" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 3" of snow) and up to 0.1" of freezing rain for areas between 276/195 and 78 (obviously the high end of those amounts it towards 78 and the low end towards 276/195, where there may be <1" of mostly sleet and a bit of freezing rain. And given freezing rain predictions of a few hundredths of an inch for SEPA and much of SNJ (except the coast), advisories for that would likely be issued.

Having said all that, the 6Z models, which just came out, largely bumped back north a bit which would mean more sleet than snow for most and probably an earlier changeover to plain rain up to 78, but this also increases the risk for an extended period of freezing rain, which would be bad (some models are showing 1/4-1/2" of ice accretion for much of CNJ and SEPA just NW of 95. Needless to say, the impacts on the Friday morning commute could be substantial even as far south as the Raritan/202 with temps not getting above 32F until 7-9 am.

Note that the forecast is very complex and subject to large uncertainty, meaning actual outcomes could still be significantly different from what the NWS and others are predicting, below (colder or warmer), so my guess is this won't be well nailed down until tomorrow afternoon and we might even see suprises in real time. The complexity is driven by the fact that most models are showing a pronounced warm nose aloft (a few thousand feet up) in conjunction with strong CAD (cold air damming) near the surface, given the very strong cold high pressure we'll have to our north - this combo is why significant amounts of sleet and some freezing rain are likely for most (with significant plain snow likely limited to areas N of 80).

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2094-224-226-high-impact-east-coast-winter-storm/page/6/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56854-february-2425-potential-winter-storm/page/18/

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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After enjoying the beautiful day, having a nice outdoor lunch with my wife, then playing a fun round of disc golf at NJ's new "monster" course (The Grove in Manalapan - it's the hardest course in NJ now), I had to witness that hoops debacle, so not much energy for weather.

Today's models have been flip-flopping a fair amount from the 12Z runs around noon to the 18Z runs in the early evening to the 0Z runs coming out now, which is why I think the NWS is kind of looking at a model blend in order to hedge their bets. Updated maps from 4 pm are below, but keep in mind there are some models showing more or less snow, sleet, and freezing rain than what's depicted, i.e., uncertainty is still very high.

The NWS did extend the watch to Morris, Lehigh and Berks. I'm guessing tomorrow morning the NWS will have warnings up for the Poconos and Sussex and maybe advisories for the rest of the watch counties (Warren, Lehigh Valley, W. Passaic, W. Bergen and the Hudson Valley, and will probably extend advisories down to at least the counties along 276/195, primarily for the risk of a bit of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain along/near 276/195 (and maybe even for SEPA/SNJ given the risk of a glaze of ice before sunrise in those areas).

The most concerning thing is that about half the models are showing 1/4" or more of freezing rain accretion for much of CNJ/NNJ/NYC/EPA with much of that coming in the early morning hours and into the rush hour, after maybe an inch or so of snow sleet for areas from 276/195 to 78 and 2-3" of snow/sleet between 78 and 80. That much freezing rain could be a real problem. Hopefully, we'll see more model consensus develop by tomorrow's 12Z runs around noon. In areas where temps remain at or below 32F through 7-8 am (could be as far south as the Raritan/202), the morning rush hour could be a mess.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56854-february-2425-potential-winter-storm/page/27/

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