I figured State College was better than typing the acronym that shall not ever be typed...
OT: Snow Thread For Feb 6th & 7th Super Bowl Sunday
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Heads or tails on a coin is a relatively simple bet. It's all over before the game begins, you know if you won or lost and can enjoy the game from the get go.
So a Dime is a large bet but over fast.
I no longer wish to have my BP up for hours at a time.
So, the 0Z (7 pm EST data inputs) suite is in and it looks like the global models showing about 4-7" of snow for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area still show that (Euro/GFS), while the two global models that were showing 6-10" have dropped to about 3-6" (UK/CMC) and the NAM dropped from 8-12" to 6-10". And all of them have decreasing snowfall amounts as one heads inland of 95 (2-4" or so), due to less precip falling and either more towards the coast (6-8") if it remains snow and the same or less if mixing/changeover - and there is wide disagreement on snowfall amounts within 10-20 miles of the coast, especially south of about Pt. Pleasant, given the mix/change possibilities being handled differently by the models.
My guess is the NWS will not change their forecast much, based on a fairly small downward shift, overall in the snowfall forecast - maybe they'll shave an inch or so off of most locations, which would be more of a 4-7" forecast vs. a 5-8" forecast. Tough call on whether the NWS goes with warnings at 4 am or advisories given criteria for each (6" N of 276/195 and only 4" S of that line, roughly). For continuity sake, I think they'll go with warnings where they currently have watches, as it's very close, and advisories for areas to the NW that don't have watches now. It's also possible they'll just hold with the watches for now and wait until 4 pm tomorrow to decide, but they usually like to issue the more definitive warnings/advisories inside of 24 hours before an event starts. We'll see soon.
Not far off. The NWS-Philly shaved about 1" off most snowfall forecasts from yesterday, but the NWS-NYC did not, so the NWS-Philly issued winter storm warnings for the entire 95 corridor for 4-7" of snow from Philly to Woodbridge and the NWS-NYC issued warnings for about 5-8" for NYC Metro (including Union up to Bergen in NJ)/LI/coastal CT on Sunday (barely meeting warning criteria for most; remember, warnings are for 4" for counties generally S of 276/195 and are for 6" for counties N of 276/195, i.e., Chester, Montco, Bucks, Mercer and Monmouth and all counties N of there). They are forecasting a bit less N/W (due to less precip) where advisories are up for 3-5" and a bit less S/E towards the coast (due to mixing/changeover to rain) where advisories are up for 2-4" of snow for most (but only 1-2" right at the immediate coast, south of about Asbury Park). Note that most media forecasts I've seen are in the 3-6"/4-8" camps, so pretty similar to the NWS.
Maps are below. Event will be pretty short with most of the precip falling from about 6 am to 3 pm in CNJ (an hour or two earlier in Philly and an hour latre in NYC), so we'll likely see some heavy snow at times, with difficult road conditions. FYI, today's 6Z models, so far are shoiwing snowfall amounts in the 3-6"/4-7" range for most, so no major changes really. This will not be a blockbuster, but it will be a plowable snow for most and temps will drop into the teens Sunday night, so make sure you shovel before the Super Bowl, plus next week will likely not get above 32F, except for the mid-30s on Tuesday and there are three more shots at wintry precip next week on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, with Tuesday likely rain for the 95 corridor and minor snow to the NW of 95, while Thurs and Sat are possibly more significant chances at snowfall for everyone, but too far out for now. This is what can happen in the pattern we're in, as per my other thread.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2019-february-7-2021-wagons-weast-comeback-snowstorm/page/85/
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Don't get too comfortable yet. 3-5" of snow is only 10 miles NW of you in the NWS forecast, which means a wobble SE in the track of just 25 miles (very possible) would bring you 3-5" of snow with little rain. Half of the models still show you with 4-7" of snow, but half have 1-3", which is what the NWS is going witih.
The 12z RGEM is essentially exactly what I expect to happen. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021020606/rgem_asnow_neus_39.png
Are these meant to be weather threads, or entertainment threads?
I'm all for robust discussion around weather, and when there are differences of opinion (hopefully, based on some data), then I'm all for that, too.
I'm not a big fan of 3 or 4 guys constantly whipping out their weiners to see whose is the biggest, or trying to Lorena Bobbitt one another. It gets boring, there's no need for it, and it causes me to have to scroll through 50 more posts than I need to. Maybe make a weather board on the Current Events page where you guys can bicker and troll, etc. I love all of you, it just gets a bit lame after awhile.
p.s. Thanks for the continued sharing of the important stuff.
I'm all for robust discussion around weather, and when there are differences of opinion (hopefully, based on some data), then I'm all for that, too.
I'm not a big fan of 3 or 4 guys constantly whipping out their weiners to see whose is the biggest, or trying to Lorena Bobbitt one another. It gets boring, there's no need for it, and it causes me to have to scroll through 50 more posts than I need to. Maybe make a weather board on the Current Events page where you guys can bicker and troll, etc. I love all of you, it just gets a bit lame after awhile.
p.s. Thanks for the continued sharing of the important stuff.
That's the 6Z as 12Z isn't out yet, but I agree with you - and that's essentially what the NWS is forecasting, too. I also like the Pivotal maps as they're crisper - and because they have Edison/Metuchen as a data point on the map, lol. I don't like that they don't show sleet as snow, though, as I like knowing total frozen precip mass, when sleet falls, and Tidbits shows the sleet on their snow map for most models (or I wish they'd each just have a separate sleet map).
If you want to get real weather advice use official sites not football fan boards.
Amy Freeze says a general 3-6” for the forecast area. Take it to the bank from the area’s most accurate weather person.
Nah -- everyone I work with now asks me what the guys on the football forum are saying about any upcoming storm. I can't disappoint them.
That's the 6Z as 12Z isn't out yet, but I agree with you - and that's essentially what the NWS is forecasting, too. I also like the Pivotal maps as they're crisper - and because they have Edison/Metuchen as a data point on the map, lol. I don't like that they don't show sleet as snow, though, as I like knowing total frozen precip mass, when sleet falls, and Tidbits shows the sleet on their snow map for most models (or I wish they'd each just have a separate sleet map).
Thanks. Just woke up. No coffee. Not in gear yet :-)
No problem - did you see the 12Z RGEM cut snowfall about in half from 6Z, while the 12Z NAM bumped snowfall totals up significantly from 6Z? Quite a bit of bouncing around by the models for this close to the event. Will have to see what the rest of the models say...
That's the 6Z as 12Z isn't out yet, but I agree with you - and that's essentially what the NWS is forecasting, too. I also like the Pivotal maps as they're crisper - and because they have Edison/Metuchen as a data point on the map, lol. I don't like that they don't show sleet as snow, though, as I like knowing total frozen precip mass, when sleet falls, and Tidbits shows the sleet on their snow map for most models (or I wish they'd each just have a separate sleet map).
So we are looking at a more powdery snow vs. a heavier wet snow ?
Yeah I am not giving that much weight. I like the "thin stripe" idea at 6z with relative mins NW and SE of it.
Depends where you are. Along and NW of about the NJ TPK, it will likely be somewhat powdery, but closer to where a changeover to rain may occur, SE of the TPK, it will get progressively wetter. This is pretty typical - even for the last storm, about 20-30% of the "additional" snowfall was merely due to the snow well NW of 95 being drier/fluffier (the rest was due to them getting a lot more from the heavy band they got for hours on Monday evening).
The 12z Nam model and the storm looks good. A general 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts in banding. The snow arrives by breakfast time Sunday and is gone by nighttime. This being a fast mover is the difference between 4-8 and 8-16.
So it looks like everything that melted , which isn't a lot , might be replaced ..........CRAP !The 12z Nam model and the storm looks good. A general 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts in banding. The snow arrives by breakfast time Sunday and is gone by nighttime. This being a fast mover is the difference between 4-8 and 8-16.
Looking at the NJSP Triangle on the top right takes me back.
New Jersey Turnpike has a nice 12 inches in New Bruns area (Exit 7A to MP 98) and I get into Troop car and note it has NO snow tires. Meanwhile the cars for the Highway Commissioners are 2 new tires on front and 2 new snow tires on rear.
I drive to middle of my assigned area and park in u turn and just answer accident calls.
Sgt askes why no summonses that shift....."No snow tires, no summonses."
Next day all the Troop cars had snows...
This is a WEATHER thread
If the bickering and infighting continues, time outs will be issued
If the bickering and infighting continues, time outs will be issued
Ukie cut totals to 1-3
Gfs is just 3-5
Nam is the big outlier for 6 plus
Euro up next
Gfs is just 3-5
Nam is the big outlier for 6 plus
Euro up next
Not far off. The NWS-Philly shaved about 1" off most snowfall forecasts from yesterday, but the NWS-NYC did not, so the NWS-Philly issued winter storm warnings for the entire 95 corridor for 4-7" of snow from Philly to Woodbridge and the NWS-NYC issued warnings for about 5-8" for NYC Metro (including Union up to Bergen in NJ)/LI/coastal CT on Sunday (barely meeting warning criteria for most; remember, warnings are for 4" for counties generally S of 276/195 and are for 6" for counties N of 276/195, i.e., Chester, Montco, Bucks, Mercer and Monmouth and all counties N of there). They are forecasting a bit less N/W (due to less precip) where advisories are up for 3-5" and a bit less S/E towards the coast (due to mixing/changeover to rain) where advisories are up for 2-4" of snow for most (but only 1-2" right at the immediate coast, south of about Asbury Park). Note that most media forecasts I've seen are in the 3-6"/4-8" camps, so pretty similar to the NWS.
Maps are below. Event will be pretty short with most of the precip falling from about 6 am to 3 pm in CNJ (an hour or two earlier in Philly and an hour latre in NYC), so we'll likely see some heavy snow at times, with difficult road conditions. FYI, today's 6Z models, so far are shoiwing snowfall amounts in the 3-6"/4-7" range for most, so no major changes really. This will not be a blockbuster, but it will be a plowable snow for most and temps will drop into the teens Sunday night, so make sure you shovel before the Super Bowl, plus next week will likely not get above 32F, except for the mid-30s on Tuesday and there are three more shots at wintry precip next week on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, with Tuesday likely rain for the 95 corridor and minor snow to the NW of 95, while Thurs and Sat are possibly more significant chances at snowfall for everyone, but too far out for now. This is what can happen in the pattern we're in, as per my other thread.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2019-february-7-2021-wagons-weast-comeback-snowstorm/page/85/
So the 12Z models looked a smidgen less snowy than last night's 0Z models with a general 3-6" for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC on most models and 2-3" NW of 95 and then either 1-2" or 4-6" at the coast, depending on if the model is seeing a big chunk of the precip as rain or not (a split there)...with the exception of the NAM, which is showing a 6-8" snowfall for just about everyone.
Big question for the NWS is whether this decrease is enough to convert the warnings to advisories or not, especially for Mercer/Monmouth and northward where the warning criterion is 6". It's 50/50 to me, since backing off sends a signal that it's a less impactful storm, and if only 4-5" falls in a warning area, the impact isn't that much different from 6", especially with temps below 32F at the start of the snow (by 6 am) and for most of the event, meaning the snow will accumulate easily on untreated paved surfaces. Plus, the models only have to be off by a little bit for the actual snowfall to reach 6" in those areas. For the 95 corridor SW of Trenton, I think they'll keep the warnings as the criterion is only 4" of snow. We'll see soon enough.
Similar threads
OT: Minor to Moderate (2-4?) Snowfall Likely Sat morning (2/17); will be <32F, so expect slick roads
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