18z NAM is in and it is a bit further south with the track then previous runs. It keeps south jersey nearly all snow with little to no mixing issues. We'll be watching for dry slot potential as the storm battles dry air on Sunday
OT: Snow Thread For Feb 6th & 7th Super Bowl Sunday
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
We have our answer. Not surprised they kept the warnings, as they now have essentially 4-6" for south of 276/195, which is still at the warning criterion (4" - and they added Ocean to the warning area) and 5-7" N of 276/195 in PA/NJ (except well NW), which is also at the warning criterion (6") and NWS-NYC went with 4-8" for NENJ/NYC metro, which again is right at the 6" criterion (and 6-9" for the eastern half of LI and coastal CT). They may end up being a little high, but for what they forecast, I agree with their warnings/advisories.
Hey @WhiteBus - this is the pre-event forecast I'd go with for "assessment" of how well the NWS does. They list Philly as 5" now, which seems reasonable (maybe an inch above consensus, but the pros see a lot more than the models). We'll see. Been thinking all along we'd get about 6" at my house, so I'll stick with that, which also happens to be what the NWS map shows.
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My measuring board is cleaned off and set up for tomorrow!
You won't like the latest NWS forecast for you - about 5" (Pt. Pleasant area, correct?). High bust potential, but that's what they have.
Ok. 5 is the target. Local news was 3-6 this morning. I'll try to catch it at 6pm but watching golf. So I'll even go with anything under 4 here is a bust, and they still can't figure this area. Going to add Wilmington DE too. They are in the same path as Philly. Never get them right either.We have our answer. Not surprised they kept the warnings, as they now have essentially 4-6" for south of 276/195, which is still at the warning criterion (4" - and they added Ocean to the warning area) and 5-7" N of 276/195 in PA/NJ (except well NW), which is also at the warning criterion (6") and NWS-NYC went with 4-8" for NENJ/NYC metro, which again is right at the 6" criterion (and 6-9" for the eastern half of LI and coastal CT). They may end up being a little high, but for what they forecast, I agree with their warnings/advisories.
Hey @WhiteBus - this is the pre-event forecast I'd go with for "assessment" of how well the NWS does. They list Philly as 5" now, which seems reasonable (maybe an inch above consensus, but the pros see a lot more than the models). We'll see. Been thinking all along we'd get about 6" at my house, so I'll stick with that, which also happens to be what the NWS map shows.
Deep frying turkey tomorrow out back for turkey club sandwiches and will make some pomme frites. Fryer is undercover so no worries there but would like to enjoy a cigar at least.
Saw that. I don't like heavy snow but the part of these Nor'easters that affect me much more are flooding and 50-60mph winds (power failures). This projects to have neither so I'm snung as a bug.
I like how Toms River and Allaire are Northern New Jersey. That should fire up some folks in this thread.
But I thought there was no Central Jersey?
Let the games begin................
Snow should be over for you by about 3-4 pm, so plenty of time for cooking and a cigar - enjoy. We're doing low-tech, low-energy, tacky freezer delight for the game: pigs-n-blankets, mini-quiches, potato skins, dumplings, etc.
NWS:
Good afternoon. Headlines have been adjusted slightly and we have released our latest briefing package regarding tomorrow's winter storm (please refresh the page if it has not updated). https://weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Good afternoon. Headlines have been adjusted slightly and we have released our latest briefing package regarding tomorrow's winter storm (please refresh the page if it has not updated). https://weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Bickering is ok. It's when the Tomfoolery get's out of hand that you may need to step in.
Big bust guy. Love the bust. ( . )( . ) 👍
Tad north but in the wheelhouse I guess. @Knight Shift @knightfan7 and @koleszar are a little closer to there.
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What shore town are you at? I think @knightfan7 is the furthest south on this board in Ocean County Beach towns.
If we use ~ I-78 and ~195 as the dividing lines...Allaire is Central and *Toms River is South.
* That south into Ocean and you are on South Jersey.
He is Manasquan and I'm in Spring Lake Heights. We are both in Monmouth.
UPS loves me more than him and @Knight Shift when it comes to our Season Tickets delivery schedule. 😎
I always use 539 (with Trenton on the "south" side) to 72, for separating "north" vs."south" as that divides things more along distance from Philly vs. NYC, which is really what separates north from south in NJ. And then for CNJ I go up to about 78.
I've been to Toms River and my impression is that it's Yankees/ Giants country. That makes it central Jersey . By comparison, Long Beach Island not far to the southis Philies/Eagles country.
The Census Bureau used to include Mercer County in the "consolidated Philadelphia metropolitan area. Now Princeton and Trenton are considered their own metropolitan area. The Philadelphia area starts contiguous to there. The classifications are based on in part on ommuting patterns. BTW, the Philadelphia area includes Wilmington and even the northmost county in Maryland. https://censusreporter.org/profiles...hia-camden-wilmington-pa-nj-de-md-metro-area/
Actually I know he is in Squan. I've been trying to get him and @Source to meet up at Leggetts for years. I was saying I dont know if any posters are along the beach towns in Ocean County.
Minor difference, but I'd say more like 3-5" for anyone near/along 95 and the entire area SE to the coast, with <3" only well N/W of 95, i.e., Sussex/Warren in NJ and the Poconos/Lehigh Valley in PA. The NAM is obviously more (4-7" for most), as is the HRDPS (3-6" for most), while the RGEM is 3-5" for most.
Still think 3-6" with potential for 7-8" where heavier bands set up is a good call for most of the area (including the coast) and 2-4" for well N/W of 95. NWS might be a tad high, but then again, they're better at this than most, usually.
IF you get NY and Phithy channels you are definitely in central Jersey
NWS now has everyone at the coast from Asbury Park down to Toms River at 3-5" of snow (and 3-7" of snow from AP to Sandy Hook) with amounts decreasing from there to LBI down to 1-2" and 1" or less from AC to Cape May, but with amounts climbing rapidly to 2-4" just 10 miles NW of AC in Mays Landing. But as I said bust potential due to rain is very high anywhere within a few miles of the coast, especially south of about Asbury Park.
Yes. Until cable Ocean County was solidly NY stations. NY Press. Never saw a Philly paper in Ocean County. When cable came around some of the western parts got both NY and Philly local channels. Now Tom's River has both too.
The State is about 170 miles long so if you are using the 3 markers of north, central and south that makes Tuckerton and below south, Manahawkin to Middletown central and above that north. That is pure geography. Culturally it is an entirely different definition.
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