OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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meh they don't care as long as they can run 3 feet of snow all of their bodies they are happy
When a loved one can't get to the hospital due to impassable roads they will feel differently.
Lonnie Quinn slowly caving...9-15 NYC which is still the lowest around and 15 plus for central jersey and staten island
Was a nice, but kind of an early night tonight. Band was decent. Not too loud (getting old sucks). It's a good place to hang out and watch a snow storm. They could stand to have a giant fireplace.
They could maybe have a few more hookers too. As the old saying does, you can't never have too many hookers.
Even if totals don't hit NAM levels , it definitly was the big winner for this one. GFS and Euro moved in line to NAM. Like Bac said , even a blind squirrel !
Nobody else could play and you'd still have only one chance in 290MM or so. If you like those odds, I'd love to talk to you about investing in some ventures I have in mind. [winking]
that's okay because its going to be awesome to watch them be castrated 9 storms out of 10
You could always spin up a game of dungeons and dragons.
Ahhhh. Remembering the "old days" when Spanky's posts were tagged with the current weather in Wayne, NJ!!
Finally, dusting on the deck here in Rockaway Township (Morris County). Be safe, all!
this thread will soon go over 42K views in the next hour and over 1000 post sometime tomorrow morning....wow
Actually had a great crew show up - 10 in total. Lots of laughs, drinks and food. Just got back. Snow started around 8:40 pm and was very light for a few hours and then started picking up around 10:30 pm, when we just had a dusting on the ground. As of midnight, we now have 1.25" on the ground, which is about an inch over the last 1.5 hours. Snow falling moderately now. 24F and gorgeous out there. Haven't checked a thread or model in 5 hours - was a nice break. Time to check in. Was able to see TWC in the bar and it looked like they upped accumulations for most of NJ to 18-24". Wow.
Worth reiterating that the coastal flooding, while likely moderate to major in spots, will still be nothing like was observed for Sandy from LBI to NYC, including Raritan Bay; Sandy shattered records by 3-4 feet in most of those areas. Doesn't mean there won't be some flooding and damage, but we're not going to see widespread destruction of structures. Here's the relevant section from the NWS:
ADDRESSING IMPACTS...MODELS, ALL WEEK, HAVE BEEN PRODUCING THE
HIGHEST TIDAL ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT. IT`S TRACK RELATED. AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP,
PREDICTED WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED. THAT SAID, COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS STORMS, WATER LEVELS ARE NOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE TOP 5 RECORDED LEVELS IN CAPE MAY AND LEWES AND THE TOP 10 IN
ATLANTIC CITY. IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS SEVERE, BUT STILL
NOTABLE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. PLEASE REFER TO AHPS
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
ADDRESSING IMPACTS...MODELS, ALL WEEK, HAVE BEEN PRODUCING THE
HIGHEST TIDAL ANOMALIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
CAN`T ARGUE WITH THAT. IT`S TRACK RELATED. AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP,
PREDICTED WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED. THAT SAID, COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS STORMS, WATER LEVELS ARE NOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE TOP 5 RECORDED LEVELS IN CAPE MAY AND LEWES AND THE TOP 10 IN
ATLANTIC CITY. IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS SEVERE, BUT STILL
NOTABLE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. PLEASE REFER TO AHPS
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.
True, but man, this storm is delivering so far and it just looks like it's going to keep delivering.
I follow the accuweather forums. There is member nwscott, who last year, as Nemo was about to come up the coast said ,just missed where it needed to be for NJ, it's goings to miss (paraphrasing). He threw in longitude, latitude, temperatures at certain heights etc etc. Everone told him he was crazy cause look at the models. We are about to get hammered...we know how that turned out
Turns out nws stand for National Weather Service and his name is Scott. Now retired
He showed up again about yesterday at 8pm and said this is at least 12+ for NYC. And not just because of what the NAM was showing. He used the NAM model, what models follow that, 500 level temperatures (or something I don't understand) and it follows
My point is there is so much that can't be seen just by looking at each model and kudos to those that still forecast. Big difference between those Mets and others that have an agenda to follow
Turns out nws stand for National Weather Service and his name is Scott. Now retired
He showed up again about yesterday at 8pm and said this is at least 12+ for NYC. And not just because of what the NAM was showing. He used the NAM model, what models follow that, 500 level temperatures (or something I don't understand) and it follows
My point is there is so much that can't be seen just by looking at each model and kudos to those that still forecast. Big difference between those Mets and others that have an agenda to follow
It's crazy to me how model casting has become so huge in the last 3 years. No one ever had an idea what the Euro, GFS, NAM, etc… were.
I'll throw this out to the experts with hope they respond...
DT was shouting from the mountain tops that central VA was going to get slammed and that all the local meteorologists on the TV stations were morons because they weren't going along with his predictions.
Now it looks like a dry slot has formed over central VA and the storm may not wrap back to give them what was originally forecatsed. Is DT getting hung out to dry?
DT was shouting from the mountain tops that central VA was going to get slammed and that all the local meteorologists on the TV stations were morons because they weren't going along with his predictions.
Now it looks like a dry slot has formed over central VA and the storm may not wrap back to give them what was originally forecatsed. Is DT getting hung out to dry?
DT always does that, for some where, from what I believe.
My understanding...what your seeing means the storm is more west and north. That follows NAM
Places that get warmer. Are warmer
It's also means NJ will get hammered. Someone is getting 2.5 feet
My understanding...what your seeing means the storm is more west and north. That follows NAM
Places that get warmer. Are warmer
It's also means NJ will get hammered. Someone is getting 2.5 feet
I'm not a met, but I've been following this stuff since the mid-90s when I discovered the internet and internet weather user groups. There was something called ne.us.weather discussion group or something like that and that's where I discovered weather models, like the old ETA, which became the NAM and discovered people like DT/WxRisk who posted in the forum - it was kind of like the early days of Rutgers message boards - it was cool to discover other people with similar interests you could talk to and learn from. Think it was a few more years before I saw people posting model output - people used to just talk about the models and there was this guy, Gary Grey, who had a website and he would explain what each model said and what he expected to happen.
But yeah, nowadays, it seems like everyone is aware of weather models to some extent. I've been posting about weather on this board for maybe 15 years and in the old days, I'd just make a few short posts trying to report back on what I'd heard on weather forums and from the NWS and the amount of traffic on those threads was pretty small. Seems like the level of interest really took off in the past 2-3 years or so. Not sure why to be honest, since I used to discuss the various models 10+ years ago without nearly as much interest. Wish we had some of those old threads. Luckily for me, I still have every weather email I ever sent, since around 1999 - just like now, I used to post the content from the emails here.
Weather fascinates me...I was accepted to college as a Meterology major and also as Business major.
The fear of having to take so many science classes scared me off and steered me to business. Now, 15 years into my career, I do wonder what could have been. What would meteorology have had in store for me?
That's why I love these threads so much.
The fear of having to take so many science classes scared me off and steered me to business. Now, 15 years into my career, I do wonder what could have been. What would meteorology have had in store for me?
That's why I love these threads so much.
NWS snowfall maps updated and significantly increased, as I expected, but they went even higher than I was thinking, especially in NYC. NYC now 12-18" (I was thinking 10-14") and most of CNJ at 14-20" from 78 down to 195 (close to the 12-20" I was thinking). SE PA/South Jersey, including Philly at 16-24", except decreasing towards the coast (and down to 8-12" right along the shore from AC to Cape May, due to sleet/rain). Big storm folks, big blizzard. Starts in a few hours - heading to the pub soon - haven't had a lot of sleep lately and I'm sure I won't sleep more than a couple of hours tonight.
Have to love the min/max maps on the NWS site. Shows my house will get a min of 3" and a max of 28". Nice spread, lol. More realistically, a 14-20" forecast should at least deliver min 8" and shouldn't deliver more than 26" (+/-6" seems more reasonable).
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Just catching up and saw that the NWS had increased forecast snowfall amounts even more. Wow, basically 18-24" for NYC/LI/NENJ and almost all of Central Jersey/South Jersey, except SE NJ near the coast, where mixing will occur. This would be an historic (over 18" is historic for me, as NYC has had 10 storms with 18" or more in 147 years of records) snowstorm if it verifies and would be an incredible coup for the NAM.
Still a long way to go for this to verify - looks like snowfall predictions in much of central and western VA and NC have busted low and SE VA is getting way more sleet than expected (DT lives in Richmond and is probably contemplating another line of work, lol, as he's been screaming the NAM was useless and Richmond would get all snow and NYC would never get more than a foot of snow).
But the way the storm is unfolding and with all the last global model runs and short range model runs showing these snowfall amounts, it's looking good for verifying. Gonna be a long night of measuring, walking around and shoveling. I will enjoy this immensely, but I hope everyone stays safe, as this is obviously a potentially life threatening situation for some.
UES - Fell asleep around 11pm not even a flurry just woke up to about 1 inch on my balcony. Still a decent amount of people and cars on the street for 230am but doesn't look like any plows came up the avenue yet.
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