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OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

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As of 3 am, we have 3.0" here in Metuchen, which translates to 1.75" in the past 3 hours or about 0.6" per hour. Just got in from my first shoveling and it's snowing moderately. It is absolutely gorgeous out there. Might nap for a couple of hours now, as I'm beat...
 
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Already shoveled once (Yardville). She's coming on strong, boys. Probably better than an inch per hour. 130 was slick all the way home from work. Wind picking up.
 
Roads from New Brunswick to Piscataway and then to Edison at 330am terrible. They haven't touched anything yet, or coming down so fast it just seems like they haven't done anything. Nobody should be out in this, including the stretch limo that was fish tailing down Stelton Road.
 
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It's going to be tough to actually "measure" how much we are getting. At 25 degrees the snow is light and the wind is howling. Snow drifts covering chairs on the deck and a dry patch feet away in the driveway.
 
Shoveling at 3am? Wonder how your neighbors feel about that. First plows just coming down my street. Since I will be shoveling rather than blowing I will be out there by around 8am. Judging by the street lights the snow is coming fast and on angle given the wind. I am not hearing the wind much though.
 
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It's going to be tough to actually "measure" how much we are getting. At 25 degrees the snow is light and the wind is howling. Snow drifts covering chairs on the deck and a dry patch feet away in the driveway.
I agree.
 
Took the dogs for a walk and the winds are blinding. Only went 1/2 the usual route because it's hard to see.
I'd guess we have 3 to 5 inches in Summit so far, but the snow is blowing around in the air on the ground,
so not real sure.
I am surprised it is the soft small flakes instead of the heavy wet snow many predicted, but perhaps
it will change over.
Thanks RU#'s for all of the updates and generous sharing all week.
If this wind continues (or gets windier), we'll have problems with a bunch of trees.
Be safe.
 
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Actually had a great crew show up - 10 in total. Lots of laughs, drinks and food. Just got back. Snow started around 8:40 pm and was very light for a few hours and then started picking up around 10:30 pm, when we just had a dusting on the ground. As of midnight, we now have 1.25" on the ground, which is about an inch over the last 1.5 hours. Snow falling moderately now. 24F and gorgeous out there. Haven't checked a thread or model in 5 hours - was a nice break. Time to check in. Was able to see TWC in the bar and it looked like they upped accumulations for most of NJ to 18-24". Wow.

One of the downers of living in Ocean City, its a dry town, no bars to "walk" to on a night like last night.
 
As of 3 am, we have 3.0" here in Metuchen, which translates to 1.75" in the past 3 hours or about 0.6" per hour. Just got in from my first shoveling and it's snowing moderately. It is absolutely gorgeous out there. Might nap for a couple of hours now, as I'm beat...

As of 6:30 am, we have 7.5" (average of about 20 measurements, which is needed when it's this windy) on the ground, which means we've been getting over an inch per hour since 3 am (4.5" in 3.5 hrs). Took me about 45 minutes for shovel #2 and it was ripping 30-40 dBZ for part of that time, with <1/4 mile visibility, i.e., heavy snow. 23F out there.

Starting to feel confident that we're on our way to the 18-24" prediction from most sources. The NWS increased their forecast to 18-24" for all of CNJ - the northern parts of Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon were in the 12-18" swath before; now there is no longer a discontinuity with neighboring counties in the NYC NWS office (had 12-18" in Morris up against 18-24" in Essex before). Updated maps below - hope they paste correctly. .

StormTotalSnowWeb.png


StormTotalSnowFcst.png
 
wind is starting to pick up...snow really coming down in New Providence...sooo not looking forward to going out there... But the battle for my driveway must happen...No #Fight or flight here!!
 
I'm starting to think #s is a winter warlock or vampire. Who sleeps 3 hours a day, shoveling snow at 3am in the heart of a blizzard and says its gorgeous.

We got maybe 4 inches down here in Ocean City, lots of rain last night. Very windy and snowing again now. Crazy condo fire going on right now in Brigantine on the local news. Wind is just blowing the flames like crazy.
 
So #s - everything seems to be trending towards a 2ft storm for most of the viewing audience at this point. I know you want to be cautious...but are you in for that?
Just posted about how I'm now confident we'll get to 18" in most of CNJ, with 24" being attainable where the heavier bands set up, as we have almost 8" on the ground now. It's ripping out there and the radar/water vapor loop look incredibly juicy from way down into the Gulf/Atlantic up to the storm and into the huge precip shield. So I can easily see getting another 10+ inches from now to 7 pm, which would get me to 18" and most others south of 78, I think. Not sure if NYC/LI or NJ north of 78 get to 18", but certainly possible.

The one caveat to the above is if the dreaded dry slot rears its ugly head. Right now it looks to be down around Cape May and in theory the storm should start moving ENE instead of NNE, as it's been doing, that movement would drive the precip shield to "pivot" and slide ENE-ward, allowing all that precip over VA to slide over us for hours to come, delivering the rest of the snow. But if that dry slot comes up here, that would hold down accumulations.
 
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I'm starting to think #s is a winter warlock or vampire. Who sleeps 3 hours a day, shoveling snow at 3am in the heart of a blizzard and says its gorgeous.

We got maybe 4 inches down here in Ocean City, lots of rain last night. Very windy and snowing again now. Crazy condo fire going on right now in Brigantine on the local news. Wind is just blowing the flames like crazy.

lol, did you know bac's handle on AmericanWx is winterwarlock? Hey, I only slept for 2 hours so far and I think I'm done as I absolutely love being awake during daylight hours when it's snowing, plus I like to keep up with shoveling every 3-4", as that makes it far easier.

Too bad about the rain down there, as I know you wanted snow - was forecast to change for a time, but radar shows you being snow now and temp is listed as 32-33F. Looks like you might be in a lull for a little while.
 
Just did some shoveling. Snow is surprisingly sticky. I did some measuring as well and around my house all measurements were between 7-10 inches, with 8-9 inches being the most common. I am in east Vineland FWIW.
 
I am a 1/2 block from the bay and we had water to our top step on my front porch during Sandy. This morning's high tide I can see the water creeping up the street already. It would still need to come up another few feet before it hits my driveway or comes close to my house. Hopefully it doesnt come up much higher for tonights high tide.

If anyone is interested in whats going on at the beach, here is a good beach cam in Ocean City. This is 3rd street and the picture is pretty good. I linked some other beach cams as well for different views. They just finished replenishing these beaches and they are a good 100 feet wide at high tide on an avg day. As of this morning at high tide the waves are hitting the dunes. Luckily the dunes look in pretty good shape right now

http://attheshore.com/cams/attheshore.php?ip=gardens-plaza-3rd-street-beach

4th st looking south
http://attheshore.com/cams/attheshore.php?ip=gardens-plaza-skycam-2

roof cam on the Flanders Hotel looking south, pretty good shot of the beach and boardwalk and OC Fishing Club pier
http://attheshore.com/cams/attheshore.php?ip=flanders
 
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RU#'s or anyone else-- How high will these wind gusts get ?? Trees are shaking angrily in my backyard.
Reminder to everyone with or without generators to charge all of your phones and tablets. etc..
 
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Wind velocities will depend on your distance from the shoreline. Currently blowing 36 kts at the Breezy Point buoy offshore and about 20kts at Sandy Hook, 40-50 kts at the mouth of Delaware Bay.

Winds along the coast today into this evening will approach 50-60 kts. Further inland, near the I-95 corridor, we're probably looking at 25-30 with occasional gusts to 45.
 
Just came in from 430am plowing of commercial lots. It's bad out. Hillsborough to Somerville 206 was passable. State doing a good job. County roads are plowed but township roads are horrendous in Hillsborough. I saw alot of stuck cars and SUV's. Don't try to drive in this.

As far as the dreaded dry slot how much f'n snow do you want?
 
Hard to tell how much so far here in Lambertville. Oddly, the cars are barely covered but I had well over a foot trying to open the door to let the dog out this morning. Lots of drifting but I'd guess at least 10" so far.

I'll be watching those trees I contemplated having removed last summer (but never did) all day.
 
Another thing about 2 feet of snow. That stuff is on the roof. Who needs property damage to go along with snow casualties?

A friendly reminder. Since we are getting obscene amounts of snow remember to clean around your tailpipe so when u start it and sit inside you don't kill yourself.
 
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As of 6:30 am, we have 7.5" (average of about 20 measurements, which is needed when it's this windy) on the ground, which means we've been getting over an inch per hour since 3 am (4.5" in 3.5 hrs). Took me about 45 minutes for shovel #2 and it was ripping 30-40 dBZ for part of that time, with <1/4 mile visibility, i.e., heavy snow. 23F out there.

Starting to feel confident that we're on our way to the 18-24" prediction from most sources. The NWS increased their forecast to 18-24" for all of CNJ - the northern parts of Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon were in the 12-18" swath before; now there is no longer a discontinuity with neighboring counties in the NYC NWS office (had 12-18" in Morris up against 18-24" in Essex before). Updated maps below - hope they paste correctly. .

Went back out at 7:30 am and measured an average of about 8.5", did my 3rd shovel of the storm (maybe the toughest one, 30 min after the plows went by and threw all the heavier, wetter snow from the road into the bottom of my driveway and somewhat onto my sidewalk), and then at 8:30 am measured again and I'm estimating 9.5".

But man it's really tough to measure, as it's pretty windy (not like it will be, maybe 15 mph w/25 mph gusts) and the snow is quite dry (nice dendrites), so I'm seeing variations from 8 to 11" all over the yard (I have a large, tree-free, fairly quiescent back yard) and there are even some bare spots and drifts to 24" already. I have no idea why I love this stuff so much, but I do - made a nice snow angel and took a nice walk. Have to say, this storm reminds me of Jan-96.
 
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Another thing about 2 feet of snow. That stuff is on the roof. Who needs property damage to go along with snow casualties?

A friendly reminder. Since we are getting obscene amounts of snow remember to clean around your tailpipe so when u start it and sit inside you don't kill yourself.
As of 830am here in Hazlet, I measure 9" so far.
 
No trees in your yard? TREE HATER! And as far as snow angels...........:sunglasses:
 
Just posted about how I'm now confident we'll get to 18" in most of CNJ, with 24" being attainable where the heavier bands set up, as we have almost 8" on the ground now. It's ripping out there and the radar/water vapor loop look incredibly juicy from way down into the Gulf/Atlantic up to the storm and into the huge precip shield. So I can easily see getting another 10+ inches from now to 7 pm, which would get me to 18" and most others south of 78, I think. Not sure if NYC/LI or NJ north of 78 get to 18", but certainly possible.

The one caveat to the above is if the dreaded dry slot rears its ugly head. Right now it looks to be down around Cape May and in theory the storm should start moving ENE instead of NNE, as it's been doing, that movement would drive the precip shield to "pivot" and slide ENE-ward, allowing all that precip over VA to slide over us for hours to come, delivering the rest of the snow. But if that dry slot comes up here, that would hold down accumulations.

Looks like the surface low pressure is starting to move more towards the ENE, as predicted, meaning the entire precip shield should start to "pivot" and slide ENE, keeping most of NJ in the snow. Could be less to the far southern parts - seeing a bit of a dry area south of 195 right now - thinking that should be temporary and fill back in quickly.

Also, this was an interesting comment from the NWS in Philly at 7:51 am about upping accumulations by 5-8" from 78 northward and that another 7-12" should fall from Philly to Belmar and another 12-20" near I-78 on top of whatever people had at 7 am. That would bring people who had 6-7" at that point to 18-26" total. I'm much closer to 78 than a Philly to Belmar line.

751 AM CHECK: CONSIDERING INCREASING OUR STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC/SNOW
AMOUNTS BY 5 TO 8 INCHES I-78 NORTHWARD. WILL ACT ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER AROUND 915 AM. THIS PER THE NAM CRUSHING QPF AND
BANDING SIGNAL FOR THE ARC KRDG-KMMU MIDDAY THRU THIS EVENING.
800-600MB FGEN LOOKS VERY GOOD AS WELL AS SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP RH FIELD WHICH IS USUALLY WHERE BEST LIFT OCCURS. JUST WANT
TO DOUBLE CHECK WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND ALSO THE 12Z NAM.

FWIW...THINKING ANOTHER 7 TO 12 INCHES PHL TO KBLM TODAY AND
PROBABLY ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES NEAR I-78. THAT IS FROM 12Z
THROUGH 03Z/24. (NEXT 15 HOURS)
 
Another thing about 2 feet of snow. That stuff is on the roof. Who needs property damage to go along with snow casualties?

A friendly reminder. Since we are getting obscene amounts of snow remember to clean around your tailpipe so when u start it and sit inside you don't kill yourself.
Every time we get more than about 15" of snow, I go up on the roof over our family room (only 12-15 feet up) and shovel one relatively gently sloping part, as it just worries me.
 
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