OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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I've tried to convince many women that 4" is significant but they're just not buying it.
This message board is the first place I come when I hear of an impending storm. I don't want to get in a pissing contest but RU 4real are you?....As a person who drives for a living I need to be aware of weather situations and this is the place I come for that info. I take what I need and use the info accordingly. I'm thankful for this forum and the people that add to it...thanks as always #s , Bac, ND all the other RU brethren that supply insight here...u too RU4REAL. .so count me among the helped
It's pretty clearly an inverse case of opposites attract. I'm longtime close friends with @RU848789. I only know @RU4Real from the board, but I like him a lot. From my perspective, they are very similar types with many similar tendencies. That they arrive at opposite sides of an argument so often seems more due to nurture than nature to me.
#s I would also like to receive your emails...please add me to ur list...misterf1964@hotmail.com. ..thnx Eugene
101.5 Dan Zarrow there is a possibility of double digit amounts. Actually their news headlines say could be a snowmeggedon but too early yet.
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It's a complex picture, just like this forecast.
Basically, it's a 24" 2-stage Troy-Bilt, 8 years old. The last storm of the year, last season, the trans blew - for the 2nd time in 3 years. I know the repair is about 200 bucks. So the questions are:
- Can my small engine guy get it fixed in 4 days?
- Do I start to consider the sunk costs and just buy a new one?
Oh, and @misterf - Really? You drive for a living and THIS is the place you come for "expert" advice on weather conditions? To each their own, but... I've always relied on direct sources, rather than 2nd & 3rd hand info.
I'd be surprised if you could get it repaired that quickly - the timing is bad. Is the $200 for a new trans or a rebuilt one?
I know you'll work it out logically. For me, if a new one was $500 or less, I'd just do that with no further thought. But it looks like it'll be at least $600 for a new Troy-Bilt, w/more features quickly upping the price considerably. Makes it a much tougher decision.
Anyway, I wonder if renting one for this storm would be enough to kill the storm in it's tracks.
I totally love huge dumps. Snow and otherwise. Which helps to prove the truth in your statement.
Sanity is way overrated.
Seasonal affective disorder? You need to have more fun, after all, it makes time fly.
You do realize that focusing on and cheering for our football team directly affects the outcome, don't you?
Focus!
I think I came up with an Option 3. I'm gonna buy a single-stage, for about 400 bucks. It will be enough to get me through this storm and will subsequently handle 80% of all the snowfalls we typically get in this area. I'll let the guy take his time fixing the big one (he can't even come out and look at it until 11AM tomorrow) and when it's done I'll have 2 snowthrowers. The reduction in duty cycle on the big one should keep it from breaking as often.
I have convinced myself that this is the best value prop. Please don't convince me otherwise. :)
Not so. Sheep are very discerning creatures. I've met many size-queen sheep. They always put me in the friend-zone.
Sounds perfectly logical to me. Unclear if that approach will suffice to kill the storm though. Could go either way, really. Might not snow at all now, making the $400 a worthwhile expense (if you don't like snow). But it might also snow four feet with the bottom foot being heavy wet snow (impossible to clear w/the new machine).
We might have to consult with @RutgersRaRa to see if there's something that can be done, some clothing choice perhaps, that might sway the Cosmic Ironies decision one way or the other.
This will be interesting.
You're right - there's no real sense of determinism, here. The way I see it, the two most likely outcomes are:
- It doesn't snow at all, in which case I've wasted 400 bucks. HOWEVER - since the plan would be to utilize the single-stage as my new "primary" machine, there may be too much reward inherent in the overall plan to affect the outcome of this storm.
- It will snow like all holy hell, feet and feet of it, and to make the smaller snow machine useful I'll have to be outside every hour for 24 hours straight.
MR. FOCUS! What happened to him? Did he ever calm down and come back under a different name?You do realize that focusing on and cheering for our football team directly affects the outcome, don't you?
Focus!
Focusing on football, the real question is how will this storm affect our weekend official visits? Right now it looks like a close call for incoming flights Friday afternoon although hopefully they'd make it in. If the large amounts verify by Saturday, unlikely the staff will be able to take our visitors to the city (assuming Ash carries that tradition forward).
Depends on travel - it would take a LOT of snow to shut down Amtrak / NJT from NB to NYC. Could be an option, given a moderate snowstorm.
if by Thursday it looks like we will have a snowmaggedon with 1-2 foot amounts, expect all those visits to be cancelled beforehand
Agreed - doubt they'd want anyone stranded (or worse) due to severe weather, although for kids from the south, I'm sure they'd get a blast out of a big snowstorm. Today's models, so far, including the latest GFS, continue to show a major to historic snowstorm. Still a ways to go, but a big snowstorm is becoming more likely with each model suite.
Euro comes out in a couple of hours and I'd be surprised to see it shift much, since it's been locked in pretty well for at least the past 2-3 days on this being a major east coast snowstorm. It may have missed the western edge of last year's blizzard by 50-75 miles, but it was the only model that consistently had that one being a major snowstorm for days and it's been right on these systems much more than the other models, i.e., it's still the best model.
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It is unusual for them to predict that far out...... I use that site all the time, usually all they would put out at this point is chance of snow
The new 12z run of the GFS model is in and it continues to show the potential snow storm for the weekend. This run has a widespread area of 10-20 inches of snow. Again, it's still 5+ days away.
in fairness the GFS was the first to identify this snow event last week....Euro while still dumping big amounts, seems to be further southeast in its runs that the GFS so lets see how that goes in future runs
Gents - thanks for the interest, but as mildone and silentwillie could tell you, the weather emails usually don't contain anything different than what I post here - in fact, I post info more frequently here (hate cluttering people's inboxes more than once a day; people can choose to ignore board threads), so there's really no point in being added to the emails.
As an aside, I started winter weather emails for work and friends/family about 20 years ago, but didn't start posting weather stuff here until maybe 15 years ago (and FB about 8 years ago) - the long term solution, which many have suggested, is a blog of some sort, so I could just post info in one place, but I'm not web-page-design savvy - maybe a retirement project, lol.
Party foul. AccuWeather is not allowed to be discussed in any serious weather-related threads.
Quite correct! We all know that weather.com is the expert we should be referring to.
Why does every storm seem to happen on the weekend? If it's gonna storm, at least have it during the week so we can potentially get some days off from work.
The 12z Canadian is in and it continues to show the winter storm. It's slightly warmer than the gfs and coastal areas change to rain for a short period of time. Still a foot or more of snow for most.
Actually, it's not 5+ days away. Today's 12Z models initialized about 7 am today, EST, and the storm will be getting going in our area on Friday evening, 4.5 days from then. Plus, realistically speaking, we're going to know with reasonably well what's going to happen by Thursday night, about 24 hours before the storm hits and that's only 3.5 days away.
I also don't think there's much value in posting output from each model, especially several days out, as it just clutters up the thread with relatively low value info. It's why I tend to post after the entire model suite has come out, so that one can look at the overall consensus (if there is one) or look at outliers or look at trends from the previous suite. Just a suggestion...
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