OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
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Best reference weather wise I have found is NOAA.GOV used my many dispatchers for transportation companies.
I tend to stay away from the TV weather weenies as much as I like to stay away as much as possible from the political "news"...it's all about sensationalism.
I look to this board as the most reliable source of info for storm tracking. I also understand that sudden shifts in storms can cause them to either bury us or miss us entirely, so I don't get all up in arms about how exact or inexact the forecast is. Nor do I care whether somebody gets all excited about how big the storm MAY be. Thanks to #s and others for posting this info. It's a public service and for those who want to trash the effort, click on your link for weather dot com or turn on eyewitless news.
I look to this board as the most reliable source of info for storm tracking. I also understand that sudden shifts in storms can cause them to either bury us or miss us entirely, so I don't get all up in arms about how exact or inexact the forecast is. Nor do I care whether somebody gets all excited about how big the storm MAY be. Thanks to #s and others for posting this info. It's a public service and for those who want to trash the effort, click on your link for weather dot com or turn on eyewitless news.
I'm hitting ALDI right now to get my milk, eggs, bread and bottled water. Then I'm stopping at the gas station to get 10 gal of gas for the generator.
No... the current anxiety is over occlusion, which would result in the dreaded Dry Slot.
It's winter, we are in the Northeast, it's supposed to snow.
Euro run was a big hit but it showing the best locations from Philly south to DC and Virginia if you want mega amounts. Amounts in NJ up to NYC might be in the 10-18 inch range verbatim. Also the better mets and posters in the threads talking about occlusion as a factor in this system and that's why the DC could do better and it would cut down on the amounts up this way.
its still too early in the game to be throwing totals out there with any confidence. The next two days is all about trends and the models usually do some slight adjusting during this time period. So we wait and let the media hype the shit out of this until the mets get a better grasp and have some confidence to lay out numbers
its still too early in the game to be throwing totals out there with any confidence. The next two days is all about trends and the models usually do some slight adjusting during this time period. So we wait and let the media hype the shit out of this until the mets get a better grasp and have some confidence to lay out numbers
Don't want to be in the bulls eye 4 days out. It gets to Thurs and your there buckle up, start a fire in the fireplace, Crack some beers and enjoy the snow until you have to get out there and get after it
And the Euro doesn't change much, still showing a major to historic snowstorm for the entire I-95 corridor from DC to Boston and for the interior. Snowfall maps showing 10-20" for almost all of NJ, Philly, NYC, etc. Still 4.5 days out and it's still possible this is mostly a rainstorm (inland track) or a near miss out to sea (with maybe just a few inches of snow near the coast), but a major snowstorm is certainly becoming more likely with each passing model cycle. The major players should be on shore in N. America tomorrow night, meaning better data, which should improve the modeling accuracy.
@mildone - I bought a brand new 2-stage snowblower as an outright replacement for the broken one.
I understand that this was not one of the previously discussed options and so we don't have any real sense of how it affects the meteorological calculus.
I throw up my hands. I have no idea what will happen.
I understand that this was not one of the previously discussed options and so we don't have any real sense of how it affects the meteorological calculus.
I throw up my hands. I have no idea what will happen.
That's one of my favorites, lol. The terms are actually ok - it's when the media gets a hold of them and hypes them to death that it gets annoying. Cold conveyor belt and dendritic snowflake growth haven't seen widespread use yet, but terms like nor'easter, polar vortex, thundersnow, and bombogenesis have become a bit overused the past few years, IMO.
Cold air overtaking (actually, undercutting) warm air associated with a low pressure system, which basically separates the warm airflow from the storm's circulation.
I think the way they're applying it, in this case, is that the sheer size and strength of the storm, which will be south and east of us and rotating counterclockwise (because it's a low pressure system) will pull cold air out of Canada which will underride the warm, moist air on the western hemisphere of the storm and dry it out. Also sometimes known as "too cold to snow".
Waiting for lonnie Quinn to roll up his sleeves.
And the MILFs at the Hillsborough Deli are begging for more inches...or just "more".
Here's what I just sent to my email lists...
Summary: Ok folks, after our nice little surprise yesterday (got ¾” in Metuchen) the Winter of Our (my?) Discontent may be over soon. It’s still 4+ days out, but the global deterministic models (including the Euro, the most reliable model, which has been showing the storm for a few days) are coming into unusually good agreement on a major winter storm affecting most of the eastern US on Friday night and Saturday. Way too early to forecast snowfall amounts, but we’re potentially looking at 10-20” of snow from Philly to NYC (and DC to Boston, really), starting Friday evening and lasting through Saturday. It’s still possible the track could be more inland, meaning mostly rain for the I-95 corridor (with major snows well inland), or the track could be more out to sea, meaning only a few inches of snow along I-95 (with more near the coast). For now, consider this a heads up.
Details: as of this afternoon’s model runs, it looks like we’ll see a significant storm system on the East Coast by Friday, which will be the product of two systems “phasing” to form one major storm. Specifically, a southern stream significant shortwave out in the Pacific right now will dig into the Southern Plains by the middle of this week and will begin interacting with a northern stream disturbance moving east from the Rockies (also in the Pacific now); this is what's known as a "split flow" situation with the jet stream split into northern and southern branches. In response to these systems a large trough will form over the eastern US, leading to a closed mid level low over the Southeast US and eventually a strong surface low pressure system in this area.
This surface low will then track up the east coast from GA/SC, deepening rapidly, as it interacts with a strong upper level jet streak, and throwing large amounts of moisture into what should be well established cold air supplied by a strong high pressure system in eastern Canada. Meaning snow and lots of it for some or most of us, depending on the exact evolution of these systems and the track the eventual coastal low takes.
However, as I've said many times, weather is, by nature, chaotic, meaning small differences/uncertainties in initial conditions (inherent in meteorology, since the 3-D data inputs, globally, are sparse and fraught with errors) lead to propagating errors downstream, i.e., the uncertainty in any forecast increases day-by-day. This is often called the “Butterfly Effect” (from Lorenz’s work on chaotic atmospheric systems), referring to how a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa (a small perturbation) leading to development of a hurricane.
From a nor’easter perspective, like we expect to have, this is akin to the "cone of uncertainty" for a hurricane's track, showing the potential track outcomes becoming wider and wider every day, such that 5 days out the uncertainty in any forecast is quite high, especially when it comes to predicting a complex storm taking shape from multiple sources of energy thousands of miles away. Adding to the uncertainty in the output from all of the models is the fact that both pieces of energy discussed above are currently in the Pacific Ocean, meaning the data from these systems is sparse, leading to greater potential errors downstream in the forecast. Once these systems are over land (by Tues night/Weds am) we should be sampling better data, leading to better model accuracy. If the models are still showing a major snowstorm on Wednesday (~48 hours out), then it’s time to start preparing if you need to be out in it. Here are some links…
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2016...al-for-large-east-coast-winter-storm-122-123/
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index....ble-jan-2223-coastal-storm-discussion/page-14
P.S. As of now the closest “analog” to the current setup and predicted storm evolution is the Feb-83 storm, which might be my personal favorite, as I was a junior at RU and it hit on a Friday afternoon, bringing 14-22” to most of the area – luckily that night the Busch Campus Pub stayed open and my friends’ band still played (they lived on campus) that night and it became a memorable night of snowball fights, sledding, dancing and general mayhem, lol.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19830210-19830212-6.25.jpg
Summary: Ok folks, after our nice little surprise yesterday (got ¾” in Metuchen) the Winter of Our (my?) Discontent may be over soon. It’s still 4+ days out, but the global deterministic models (including the Euro, the most reliable model, which has been showing the storm for a few days) are coming into unusually good agreement on a major winter storm affecting most of the eastern US on Friday night and Saturday. Way too early to forecast snowfall amounts, but we’re potentially looking at 10-20” of snow from Philly to NYC (and DC to Boston, really), starting Friday evening and lasting through Saturday. It’s still possible the track could be more inland, meaning mostly rain for the I-95 corridor (with major snows well inland), or the track could be more out to sea, meaning only a few inches of snow along I-95 (with more near the coast). For now, consider this a heads up.
Details: as of this afternoon’s model runs, it looks like we’ll see a significant storm system on the East Coast by Friday, which will be the product of two systems “phasing” to form one major storm. Specifically, a southern stream significant shortwave out in the Pacific right now will dig into the Southern Plains by the middle of this week and will begin interacting with a northern stream disturbance moving east from the Rockies (also in the Pacific now); this is what's known as a "split flow" situation with the jet stream split into northern and southern branches. In response to these systems a large trough will form over the eastern US, leading to a closed mid level low over the Southeast US and eventually a strong surface low pressure system in this area.
This surface low will then track up the east coast from GA/SC, deepening rapidly, as it interacts with a strong upper level jet streak, and throwing large amounts of moisture into what should be well established cold air supplied by a strong high pressure system in eastern Canada. Meaning snow and lots of it for some or most of us, depending on the exact evolution of these systems and the track the eventual coastal low takes.
However, as I've said many times, weather is, by nature, chaotic, meaning small differences/uncertainties in initial conditions (inherent in meteorology, since the 3-D data inputs, globally, are sparse and fraught with errors) lead to propagating errors downstream, i.e., the uncertainty in any forecast increases day-by-day. This is often called the “Butterfly Effect” (from Lorenz’s work on chaotic atmospheric systems), referring to how a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa (a small perturbation) leading to development of a hurricane.
From a nor’easter perspective, like we expect to have, this is akin to the "cone of uncertainty" for a hurricane's track, showing the potential track outcomes becoming wider and wider every day, such that 5 days out the uncertainty in any forecast is quite high, especially when it comes to predicting a complex storm taking shape from multiple sources of energy thousands of miles away. Adding to the uncertainty in the output from all of the models is the fact that both pieces of energy discussed above are currently in the Pacific Ocean, meaning the data from these systems is sparse, leading to greater potential errors downstream in the forecast. Once these systems are over land (by Tues night/Weds am) we should be sampling better data, leading to better model accuracy. If the models are still showing a major snowstorm on Wednesday (~48 hours out), then it’s time to start preparing if you need to be out in it. Here are some links…
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.nymetroweather.com/2016...al-for-large-east-coast-winter-storm-122-123/
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index....ble-jan-2223-coastal-storm-discussion/page-14
P.S. As of now the closest “analog” to the current setup and predicted storm evolution is the Feb-83 storm, which might be my personal favorite, as I was a junior at RU and it hit on a Friday afternoon, bringing 14-22” to most of the area – luckily that night the Busch Campus Pub stayed open and my friends’ band still played (they lived on campus) that night and it became a memorable night of snowball fights, sledding, dancing and general mayhem, lol.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19830210-19830212-6.25.jpg
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Not sure what you mean: 5 of the 12 biggest snowstorms in NYC's 147 year recorded weather history have hit over the last 12 years and snowfall in NYC and the general NJ area in the 2000s has been much greater than most earlier decades.
Shenandoah Valley of VA and the Pocahontas region of WV could be slammed! Might have to grab the skis and head south! Snowshoe and Canaan Valley could be the top powder points next weekend.
I wrote a whole post on page 2 on what I thought was major (~12") vs. historic (~18"). The post above said the Euro shows 10-20" snowfall amounts, which encompasses major to historic.
A few other comments. People talking about occlusion, dry slots, deformation bands, etc., with respect to what's going to happen in this storm are way premature. These are regional to mesoscale phenomena, which can significantly increase/decrease snowfall amounts, but which are very difficult to predict even 12 hours in advance, let alone 4+ days in advance. No issue discussing them, but predicting them is silly at this point.
Also, we have a full moon on 1/23, so that could really exacerbate any coastal flooding, which is likely to be at least minor, if not moderate, should this nor'easter be as powerful as modeled now. In addition, winds could be quite strong, leading to blizzard conditions, if model projections verify, especially for coastal sections of NJ/NYC/LI.
Also, we have a full moon on 1/23, so that could really exacerbate any coastal flooding, which is likely to be at least minor, if not moderate, should this nor'easter be as powerful as modeled now. In addition, winds could be quite strong, leading to blizzard conditions, if model projections verify, especially for coastal sections of NJ/NYC/LI.
That's the sort of dynamic that could lead to mixing issues along eastern Long Island and, depending on track, the Jersey Shore. Otherwise - as in "west of the track" - it's a good thing. The warm air picks up moisture from the ocean, that's what feeds the storm.
Yep, although the ocean is always warmer than freezing in this area, so more important than the water temp, really, is the wind direction, which is controlled by the track. A classic nor'easter that heads off the coast to the 40N/70W "benchmark" south of LI brings in NE winds as it approaches with all the moisture - the NE winds are over land, generally, and preserve enough cold air in place for snow.
When a storm tracks inland, the winds have more of an easterly component, straight off the ocean, which is why inland tracks usually bring mostly rain for the coast, then a mixed region, then snow well to the NW. Track is critical for the snow/rain line in winter coastal storms in the NE US. It's what makes them so hard to predict, especially the snow-rain line. In fact there's an old saying that in order to get the heaviest snows, you have to be able to smell the rain.
So the hype about 8-12 inches on tonights forecast is a joke. So much has to happen still. Potential yes, happening ...no one knows. They made thus mistake so many times last year but weather news must trend towards the big storm. No one cares about rain. So they hype the snow as it gets eyeballs even if it's not certain
no its not..how is any different than putting out amounts for this storm...all those talked about are important because they are issues on what could go wrong with the storm or right with the storm with certain tracks. Its just as worthy as all the other minutae and wishcasting that gets posted.
I had 28 inches for that storm...its my most memorable because at first they were saying big storm then backed off on it to 1-3...then amounts started to go up up and up. I knew things were serious when they gave us a half day at an earlier time than usual.
Numbers you just posted a ridiculous weenie map which are almost always overdone yet scolding people by posting model runs and talking about occlusion...gimme a break
I meant to just post a link to DT's post/site - didn't realize the graphic got posted - when I sent it out as an email, it was just a link. I'll edit.
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